SPORTS ADVISORS
L.A. Dodgers (55-32) at Milwaukee (45-42)
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The Brewers snapped out of their funk Saturday and now give the ball to ace Yovani Gallardo (8-6, 2.95 ERA) in the rubber match of a three-game series at Miller Park against the Dodgers, who are set to counter with red-hot lefty Clayton Kershaw (6-5, 3.27).
Milwaukee bounced back from Friday’s 12-8, 10-inning loss to the Dodgers with Saturday’s 6-3 victory. Still, the Brewers have dropped seven of their last 10, scoring two runs or fewer in five of the seven defeats, and they’re also in ruts of 2-4 at home, 0-5 on Sunday and 3-5 against the N.L. West. They’ve also struggled with L.A. of late, losing 36 of the last 54 meetings, including four of the last six at Miller Park.
Despite Saturday’s setback, Los Angeles has won five out of six and six of its last nine, including going 5-3 on its nine-game road trip that ends today. The Dodgers, who continue to sport baseball’s best record, are on additional positive runs of 6-2 against right-handed starters 11-6 against the N.L. Central.
Kershaw has been brilliant in his last three starts, going 3-0 with a 0.61 ERA, allowing just two runs and 17 hits while striking out 33 in 29 2/3 innings. The Dodgers won all five of those starts and are 5-1 in both his last six starts on Sunday and his last six against the N.L. Central.
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Kershaw went 0-3 with a 9.47 ERA in his first four road starts, but is 4-0 with a 1.39 ERA in his last four roadies, and he comes into this contest having tossed 15 straight scoreless innings in his last two outings on the highway. The 22-year-old’s lone start against the Brewers came at home last year, and he gave up a run on eight hits while fanning six in six innings, but he got a no-decision in L.A.’s 7-5 victory.
Gallardo is coming off a rare poor start, as he got touched up for four runs on six hits and five walks in five innings of Tuesday’s 5-0 home loss to St. Louis. The right-hander had surrendered just 11 runs (10 earned) in his previous eight starts covering 53 innings (1.70 ERA). Gallardo is now just 4-4 in nine home starts despite a solid 2.89 ERA, and tonight marks his first-ever outing against Los Angeles.
The under is 5-2 in Kershaw’s last seven starts, and with Gallardo on the hill, the “under” is on streaks of 19-7 overall, 5-1 at home, 10-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-1 on Sunday.
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Milwaukee carries “under” streaks of 4-2 at home, 8-4 against the N.L. West and 11-5-1 on Sunday, but the over is 10-1-1 in its last 12 games versus southpaw starters. Also, the Dodgers are on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 8-2 on the road, and 9-3 on Sunday. The over is also 5-2 in the last seven Brewers-Dodgers clashes and 4-2 in the last six clashes in Milwaukee.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
N.Y. Yankees (51-36) at L.A. Angels (48-37)
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The Angels go for a three-game sweep of the Yankees when they send John Lackey (3-4, 5.18) to the mound against New York ace CC Sabathia (8-5, 3.70).
Los Angeles rallied from an early deficit for the second straight day Saturday, pounding out a 14-8 victory over the Yankees on the heels of Friday’s 10-6 rout. The Angels are on positive streaks of 19-8 overall, 8-3 at home, 5-1 against southpaw starters, 5-1 versus the A.L. East and 21-8 on Sunday.
New York’s back-to-back losses to the Angels follow a three-game overall and eight-game road winning streak. Still, the Yankees 13-4 in their last 17 games and are on additional runs of 36-19 overall, 9-1 against right-handed starters, 12-4 against winning teams and 35-17 on Sunday.
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The host has now won 11 of the last 13 meetings in this rivalry, including four of five this season. Additionally, the Angels are 7-1 in the last eight series clashes in Anaheim and they’ve won eight of 11 against New York overall.
Sabathia dominated the Twins in Tuesday’s 10-2 win in the Metrodome, scattering a run on three hits and a walk in seven innings as he bounced back from an ugly 8-4 home loss to Seattle in which he surrendered six runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings. New York has now triumphed in five of Sabathia’s last seven starts on the highway, and for the season, the hefty lefty is 6-3 with a 2.98 ERA in 10 road efforts.
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Sabathia suffered an 8-4 home loss to the Angels back on May 2 in the Bronx, yielding five runs (four earned) in 6 2/3 innings. He’s now 5-6 with a 4.56 ERA in 13 career starts against the Halos.
Lackey followed up consecutive quality starts against the Orioles and Diamondbacks (two earned runs allowed in 15 innings) with Wednesday’s poor outing against the Rangers, as he got lit up for six runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings, suffering an 8-5 home loss. Lackey is now 1-3 with a 5.46 ERA in four home starts, and going back to September of last season, the Angels have lost six of Lackey’s last seven home contests and eight of his last 10 against winning teams,
On the bright side, Lackey has a 2.86 ERA in four day games this year, and L.A. is 18-8 in his last 26 Sunday affairs and 6-1 in the right-hander’s last seven home starts against New York. For his career, Lackey is 4-7 with a 4.81 ERA in 15 regular-season starts versus the Bronx Bombers.
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The over is 4-0 in Sabathia’s last four starts overall and 4-1 in his last five on the road, but the under is 4-1 in Lackey’s last five home outings and 5-1 in his last six on Sunday.
For Los Angeles, the “over” is on runs of 6-1 overall (all at home), 6-1-1 against the A.L. East and 6-2-1 versus lefty starters, while New York has hurdled the total in seven of its last eight overall and five of its last six against A.L. West foes. Finally, in this rivalry, the “over” is on stretches of 15-4 overall and 12-3 in Anaheim.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and OVER
Marc Lawrence
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New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
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The Angels and Yankees wrap up this three games series in Anaheim this afternoon when John Lackey takes on C.C. Sabathia. Both pitchers entered the season as 'staff aces', only to fall short of expectations. Sabathia is just 9-9 in his team starts with the Pinstripes and 5-8 in his career team stars in this series, including 2-4 with a 4.27 ERA in this park. Lackey is just 5-6 in his team starts this season and 8-9 in his career starts against the Yanks, but 4-1 his last 5 here against the Pinstripes. He's also 15-4 his last 19 starts in July. With at we'll look for the Angels to improve to 17-2 at home on Sundays here today.
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Play on: LA Angels
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Florida Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
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Dbacks have taken the first two games of this series by a combined score of 13-1, but still remain huge money burners at home, including a 13-21 record vs. righties. We look for this series to take a different turn this afternoon as Marlins starter Josh Johnson has been red hot all season with a 2.82 ERA in 18 starts. Florida has won 24 of his last 32 starts overall, including 11 of 14 in daytime action. The fish are also 20-11 vs. lefties this year.
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Play on: Florida
Cajun Sports
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Florida Marlins vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Florida Marlins
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The fourth and final game in this series takes place on Sunday afternoon with the first pitch set for 4:10PM Est. We used the Marlins as our Complimentary Selection on Thursday in the first game of this series and they came from way behind to pull off the win but they have since lost the last two games and need a win on Sunday for the split. They certainly have the starter to help with that in Josh Johnson who is 7-2 W/L with an ERA of 2.82 on the season. The Marlins are 13-5 W/L when he takes the mound and they are hoping for another solid performance from him today. Johnson is 3-1 W/L with an ERA of 3.91 when he starts on the road and 22-5 W/L following a quality start in his last outing. There are several key technical indicators that favor Johnson and the Marlins in this situation first he is 14-3 W/L when starting on four days rest, 5-0 W/L his last five on the road when facing a team with a losing record and 11-5 W/L his last sixteen road starts overall. We also see that the Marlins are 20-11 W/L (+10.1) versus left-handed starters including 11-5 W/L their last 16 versus lefties, 9-2 W/L their last eleven against teams with a losing record and 9-2 W/L when installed as a favorite. The Diamondbacks will hang their series winning hopes on starter Doug Davis who is 4-8 W/L with an ERA of 3.13 this season. Arizona is 5-13 W/L overall when Davis takes the bump including 3-7 W/L (-5.1) when he starts at home while Davis has a record of 2-5 W/L at home with an ERA of 3.11. Davis has not had much success versus the fish either posting a record of 2-3 W/L with an ERA of 5.27 and a WHIP of 1.488. The Diamondbacks are 2-5 W/L (-3.2) behind Davis when he starts versus the Marlins. Arizona will need a solid performance out of Davis if they wish to have a chance because their bullpen has struggled at home with only 8 saves and 6 blown attempts with an ERA of 5.30 and a WHIP of 1.487 all at Chase Field this season. The Diamondbacks are 19-29 W/L (-16.2) at home this season, 29-34 W/L (-4.9) versus right-handed starters and 1-6 W/L their last seven at home versus a team with a winning record. Arizona is 1-6 W/L when Davis takes the hill versus NL East opponents, 3-7 W/L with Davis coming off a quality start in his last outing and 0-4 their last four when he is installed as an underdog. We will lay the short price with the visitor as the fish grab a game four victory and split this four-game series.
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Graded Selection: 2* Florida Marlins 4 Arizona Diamondbacks 1
Red Dog Sports
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Cincinnati at NY Mets
Play: Under 8
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Harang has 6 overs and 11 unders this season with an ERA of 3.87 and the Reds have 11 unders and just 2 unders in their last 13 as a favorite. The Mets have played unders in 9 of their last 13 at home. The Mets are getting decent pitching but very little offense. Look for another under on Sunday!
John Fisher
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New York Yankees vs. LAA Angels
Play: New York Yankees
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Love to take CC when line is below -150. I have this line at -169. CC has really looked good lately. Lackey has had his good moments but also bad moments. Both teams have feated on starting pitching first two games. Look for this to change here with two 'sabby' vets. Take Yankees and under here!
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G2 St. Louis Cardinals vs. G2 Chicago Cubs
Play: G2 St. Louis Cardinals
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Both pitchers had outstanding outings last time out. Wainright came within two outs to getting complete game shutout. Was still pitching in the 90's after 120 pitch count. Dont see him going more than 7 but it will be enough to win this 2nd game of double header!
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Under 9
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Orioles just stink in day games. Both teams have struggled getting runs in first two games. Look for trend to continue.
Bob Harvey
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers and Brewers wrap up their first half of the season with two of the top young pitchers in the league going toe-to-toe at Miller Field.
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The Dodgers will go with Clayton Kershaw who twirled six scoreless innings and allowed just three hits Tuesday in beating the Mets 8-0. Most importantly he walked just two batters improving dramatically in an area in which he has struggled this season. He had a low pitch count and gave Joe Torre and the Dodgers some much needed innings. Kershaw is 6-5 with a 3.28 ERA and opposing batters are hitting just .204 against him. With each start the 21-year old Kershaw is improving by leaps and bounds. In his last three outings, all LA wins, Kershaw is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.06 and a WHIP of 1.00. In other words he’s been lights out and looks to be hitting his stride.
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Yovani Gallardo, the undisputed ace of the Milwaukee staff will take the mound opposite Kershaw. Gallardo is 8-6 and 7th in the NL with an ERA of 2.85. He’s got 120 strikeouts in 109 innings. His three game splits are: 1-2, 2.75 ERA and a WHIP of 1.27.
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Based on the last three starts, the Dodger bullpen and LA’s ability to win the tight ones, I’m going with Torre’s Troops in the final game before the All-Star break.
JIM FEIST
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WASHINGTON NATIONALS / HOUSTON ASTROS
Take WASHINGTON NATIONALS
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The Washington Nationals are the worst team in baseball with a 26-60 record. However, the Nats are not the worst hitting team. In fact, they are far from it. The Nationals rank 7th in the NL in batting with a .260 average. They are also eight in the league in runs per game (4.33). Pitching is where this team just is terrible. Washington is dead last in team era (5.26) and WHIP (1.579). However, when they do get a decent starter on the mound, you have to give them a look as a dog. That's just what we get on Sunday with Jordan Zimmerman on the hill. Zimmerman is 3-3 with a 4.52 era. More importantly, he's 1-0 in his last three starts with a nice 2.56 ERA with just six walks versus 15 KO's. Brian Moehler starts for the Astros and he, like Zimmerman, plays for a bad team. Mohler is just 5-5 on the year with a 5.52 era. Two bad teams with a slight edge in pitching to the road starter has us looking at the Nationals as a live dog here.
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
292 - 193 run 60 % 40-22 run here
SUN Seattle Mariners
8)
Vernon Croy
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Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Texas Rangers
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We are getting solid value here Sunday afternoon with the Texas Rangers who are 4-1 in Dustin Nippert's (0-0, 7.36) last 5 starts. The Mariners are just 1-4 in Erik Bedard's (5-2, 2.58 ERA) last 5 starts against a team with a winning record and the Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 games after holding their opponent to 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Rangers are 7-3 in their last 10 games as an underdog and they are 18-7 in their last 25 games against a division opponent. Take the Texas Rangers Sunday afternoon.
Tommy Gill
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San Francisco Giants -145
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The Pitching matchup in this game is Zito (5-7 4.43 ERA) vs. Correia (5-7 4.58 ERA). This has been a very odd series with injuries and no hitter and crazy stuff happening but all 11 games these teams have met this season the home team has won. The Giants are 31-14 at home this season while the Padres are 20 games under .500 on the road. Zito has a very good ERA at home this season with a 3.27 ERA vs. Correia who has been struggling lately. Correia has given up 13 runs his last 3 games in 18 innings pitched. There are to many trend that point to the Giants today and with the all-star break coming up I just can't see anyone resting today and a good reason for a play here for the Giants to get the sweep.
Tom Freese
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San Diego at San Francisco
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San Francisco 17-7-3 UNDER vs. NL West teams and they are 13-6-2 UNDER their 21 games as favorites. The Giants are 27-13-4 UNDER vs. losing teams and they are 6-2-1 UNDER in the last 9 home starts made by Barry Zito. San Diego is 11-4 UNDER their last 15 road games vs. lefty starters and they are 5-1 in the last 6 starts made by Kevin Correia. The Padres are 7-2 UNDER their last their last 9 games at San Francisco. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Zito vs. Correia)
Nelly
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Chicago White Sox + over Minnesota
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The White Sox snapped their Metrodome hex last night and Chicago should be in good position to win another game on Sunday. Mark Buehrle has been one of the AL's best pitchers this season and Chicago has won each of his last five starts. Buehrle dominated the Twins twice already this season and Minnesota is not as strong against left-handed pitching as the lineup is filled with left-handed hitters. Chicago's bullpen is also one of the best in the AL and Minnesota is a team that continues to under perform expectations, now back at .500. The Twins are just 7-9 behind Scott Baker and he features a 5.31 ERA. Baker has been significantly worse at home and he was hit hard against the White Sox earlier this season. Chicago is batting .302 in the last ten games while the Twins have slumped, batting .236 against southpaws in that span.
Scott Rickenbach
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Milwaukee vs Los Angeles
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Look for an absolute pitchers' duel here. This total has moved from a 7.5u to an 8o and so the line value here is fantastic. The move is most likely being generated by the fact that there have been a pile of runs scored so far in this series. Our response to that is that pitching changes everything. Yovani Gallardo of the Brewers is having a fantastic season as he continues to be one of the toughest pitchers to hit in the majors. His numbers bear that out. Making things even more difficult for the Dodgers this afternoon is the fact that they've only got two players on their roster who have ever even faced Gallardo.
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As for the flip-side of this equation, we see Clayton Kershaw taking the mound for the Dodgers today. The southpaw is getting hit at just a .204 clip this season so here you have a match-up featuring one of the toughest lefties in the league matched up with one of the toughest righties in the majors. Also, in Kershaw's only career start against the Brewers he held them to just one run in six innings. We just don't see the justification for this line move upward with the total and we'll suggest that you grab the value on the other side. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon.
Jimmy The Moose
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Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Over
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In last night's game the teams combined for 25 hits and 24 runs, easily playing the over. There were also 10 pitchers used between them in this game. The Royals send Bruce Chen to the mound and over his alst 3 starts his ERA is 6.88. The Red Sox are batting .270 at home and will rough up Chen. Beckett takes the mound today and 2 of his last 3 starts vs. the Royals have played over the total. The team's won't combine for 24 runs this afternoon but this one will also play over the total.