Ben Burns
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Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
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Heading into Saturday night's game, Seattle is on a solid 9-4 run at home.Through Friday's game, the Mariners are a stellar 26-12 as a favorite this season.
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Heading into Saturday's action, Seattle's home ERA of 3.35 is the top ranked ERA in the American League.The Rangers are only hitting .242 on the road this season (through Friday's action) and they'll face Erik Bedard of the Mariners Sunday.Texas strikes out more than any other team in the league (8 times per game) and Bedard has mowed down 73 batters in 69 and 2/3 innings this season. Bedard has been simply phenomenal this season. He has a 2.58 ERA and a .217 BAA on the season.
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Also, Bedard is 4-2 with a 3.12 ERA and a .244 BAA in ten career starts against the Rangers.Dustin Nippert gets the start for Texas Saturday. His first start this season came earlier in the week against the Angels. It did not go well at all. Nippert allowed three earned runs on seven hits and that all came in 3 and 2/3 innings!
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Mostly used as a reliever in his career, Nippert is just 5-8 with a 6.44 ERA in 62 games including 12 starts. This season he's only pitched in one game, the tough outing at Anaheim earlier this week,and he's heading for more struggles at Safeco Field Sunday.Nippert has a 7.21 ERA in his career road outings.Nippert is just 1-4 in day games with some ridiculously poor numbers like an 8.08 ERA and a .343 BAA. Consider laying the wood.
Matt Fargo
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St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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Game Two of this doubleheader takes place tonight on ESPN and at worst, St. Louis will head into the All-Star break with a lead in the National League Central. It is 7-3 in its last 10 games to move to seven games over .500 for the season. The Cubs snapped a three-game skid with a victory on Saturday as they continue to struggle this year. They are right at .500 but expectations were high and their only saving grace is that the division leaders have not ran away with anything. Adam Wainwright is pitching solid once again and he looks to make it four straight quality starts after tonight. His ERA for the season is now down to 3.09 in 18 starts, 12 of whish have been wins for the Cardinals. His numbers are not as good on the road but it matters little when his offense has averaged 7.6 rpg in his eight road starts and the team has gone 7-1. Pitching at night has been the best time for Wainwright as he is 6-3 with a 2.51 ERA in 11 starts at night with St. Louis going 8-3 in those games. The Cardinals are 9-0 in Wainwright?s last nine starts as a road underdog and they are 5-0 in his last five starts against the Cubs. Randy Wells counters for the Cubs and he is having an incredible rookie season but this is where the value comes into play. Nine of his 11 starts this season have been quality outings including four of five at home but that does not necessarily translate into victories. Chicago is 6-5 in his 11 starts including 3-2 at home so while winning overall, the wins should be more based on the numbers. The Cardinals are 10-4 in their last 14 road games against a right-handed starter.
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3* St. Louis Cardinals
LARRY NESS
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Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
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The Rangers took two of three in Anaheim early in the week, taking a one game lead over the Angels in the AL West. The Rangers moved to Seattle on Thursday, taking on the Mariners in a four-game series. That was good news, as Texas had beaten Seattle in all five of this year's meetings between the two teams. However, the Mariners have taken two of the first three games of this series, while the Angels own two comeback wins over the Yankees, leapfrogging the Rangers in the AL West (Angels lead by a half-game heading into Sunday). The 'heart' of the Texas lineup, Josh Hamilton (bats third) and Andruw Jones (4th) have been quieted in this series. Hamilton, who just recently returned from the DL, is 2-for-11 with no RBI vs the Mariners, while Jones, who hit three HRs in Wednesday's 8-1 win over the Angels, is 0-for-11. The Texas bats will be tested today by Seattle's Erik Bedard. The Mariners made a HUGE trade with the Orioles to get Erik Bedard prior to the 2008 season in hopes of solidifying the top of their rotation. Bedard had excellent credentials, having gone 28-16 with a 3.47 ERA in 2006 and 2007, with the Orioles winning 36 of his 61 starts over the two years (more later). However, Bedard was never quite right last year, going 6-4 with a 3.67 ERA in 15 starts (team was 8-7) and was through for the year prior to the All Star break. Bedard has struggled staying healthy again this year but came off the DL to pitch Tuesday night vs Baltimore. Bedard pitched reasonably well and probably could have gone longer had he not been on such a strict pitch count (75). He had missed the previous 25 games with left shoulder inflammation but worked the first four innings during Tuesday's no decision against the Orioles, allowing two ERs, two hits, walked one and struck out eight. He settled down to throw three scoreless innings after Baltimore scored twice in the first. When he's been able to pitch in 2009, Bedard has been impressive. He's a modest 5-2 in 12 starts (team is just 6-6) but his record (surely the team's record in his starts) does not tell the whole story. Bedard has allowed two ERs or less in 10 of his 12 starts in '09 (he's allowed just three ERs in his other two starts), posting a 2.58 ERA (owns a 73-23 K/W ratio). In his six starts prior to going on the DL, he allowed a total of only nine ERs in 34.2 innings (2.34 ERA), going 3-1 (team, was 4-2). Bedard is 4-2 with a 3.12 ERA in 10 starts vs Texas (teams are 5-5) but here's the numbers that I really like about Bedard. Bedard was a real "difference-maker" with the Orioles in 2006 and 2007 (when healthy), as his 28-16 (.636) record and the team's mark of 36-25 (.590) in his starts was significantly better than Baltimore's 139-185 (.429) overall two-year mark. Doing the math, Baltimore was 28-16 (.636) when Bedard got a decision but just 111-169 (.396) when he didn't. When Bedard got the start, Baltimore went 36-25 (.590) but with someone else getting the start, just 103-160 (.392). Bedard's opponent will be Dustin Nippert. He made 36 appearances (all relief) with the Angels in 2007, going 1-1 with a 5.56 ERA. He was with the Rangers last year, going 3-5 with a 6.40 ERA (20 appearances / six starts), allowing 92 hits in 71.2 innings. He spent the first three months of the season on the DL with a strained muscle in his right shoulder suffered in spring training and made his first start of 2009 on July 7th. He got a no decision in Anaheim this past Tuesday night, leaving after 3.2 innings (allowed seven hits and three ERs). He was lucky, as the Rangers put up a six-run fifth after he left witha 3-0 deficit (Rangers won 8-5). He's really no match for Bedard and the Mariners have won 12 of their last 17 home games. Take Seattle.
MTi Sports
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Florida Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Florida Marlins
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The Diamondbacks are 0-15 as a dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series and the Marlins are 10-0 when Josh Johnson starts as a favorite after a quality start. Consider Florida.
Jimmy Boyd
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1* on St. Louis Cardinals +103 (Game 2)
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Adam Wainwright continues to be a picture of consistency for the St. Louis Cardinals, posting a 9-5 record so far this season with a 3.09 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He's earned a 1.11 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in his last three starts as well. Randy Wells has pitched well for the Cubs in 11 starts this season, but he worst starts have come at Wrigley, where he is just 2-2 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. This looks to be a well-pitched game on both sides, but I like the Cardinals chances as they are clearly hitting better than the Cubs right now.
Chris Jordan
Los Angeles +130 at MILWAUKEE
We're taking the Dodgers in this matinee clash on the road, as they'll close the first half of the season out with a solid win behind the arm of Clayton Kershaw.
We're actually listing both pitchers, cause I want to make sure we get the value price against Yovani Gallardo, who is mistakenly priced so high. He's lost his last two starts and comes in after walking five and surrendered four runs and six hits over five innings in Tuesday’s 5-0 loss to St. Louis.
Now he's laying a rather high price to the best team in baseball, and against a hurler who is 3-0 with a 0.61 ERA in last five starts? Kershaw has allowed two runs in 29-2/3 innings, while opponents are hitting .172 against him during this run.
All value with the men in blue. Play the Dodgers.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS
Michael Cannon
St. Louis +105 at CHICAGO CUBS - DH Game 2
Take the Cardinals for the win tonight in Game 2 of their doubleheader against the Cubs.
Adam Wainwright is slated to start the second game and he’s been great in his last two starts. The right-hander has allowed just one run and has 21 strikeouts in 17 1-3 innings over that span and is 1-0.
In three starts this year against the Cubs Wainwright is 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA.
The Cubs will counter with Randy Wells, who has pitched well but suffered from a lack of run support in his first few starts. Since then, however, the right-hander has won his last four starts.
But I don’t see the Cubs getting him many runs tonight.
I’ll gladly side with the more accomplished Wainwright at this price.
Take the Cardinals as they grab the win tonight in Game 2 of their doubleheader against the Cubs.
3♦ ST. LOUIS
Jeff Benton
Cleveland at DETROIT
What a tough freebie loss with Toronto on Saturday, as the Jays lost in 12 innings at Baltimore. For Sunday’s free play, I’m backing the Tigers and Justin Verlander on the run line (-1½ runs) against the crappy Indians.
I put my money on Verlander on Tuesday against the Royals with a 10 Dime run-line play, and while he was definitely more shaky than normal – allowing five runs (three earned) in six innings – he still had nasty stuff, as evidenced by the fact he struck out 11 and walked none. And Detroit managed to pull out an 8-5 victory, allowing us to cash the run-line ticket.
That makes Verlander 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP (46 hits and walks allowed in 46 2/3 innings) at Comerica Park this season, with Detroit going 6-1 in his seven home outings (and four of the last five home wins have been by more than one run). Also, Verlander has tamed the Tribe twice this season, going 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA, giving up a total of one run, four hits and five walks in 16 innings, striking out 22.
Those latter numbers have to be most satisfying to Verlander, as the Indians had been the one team that had given him fits in his career. Prior to this year, he was 4-10 with a 6.70 ERA in 15 starts against Cleveland.
Then again, beating the Indians has been the Tigers’ specialty this year. Despite Saturday’s 5-4 setback, Detroit is still 6-2 against the Tribe this year, and five of those have been multiple-run victories. Of course, the Tigers aren’t the only team feasting on the Indians, who have the second-worst record in all of baseball; only Washington is worse both in the standings and at the betting window.
Finally, Cleveland is handing the ball to journeyman Tomo Ohka, who is 0-2 with a 5.65 ERA in six appearances (three starts) this year and 0-2 with an 8.49 ERA in three career outings against Detroit. Throw in the fact that the Tigers have won three of four (all three wins by multiple runs) while the Tribe have dropped nine of 13 (all nine losses by multiple runs), and this one’s a no-brainer. Lay the 1½ runs with Verlander and the home team.
6♦ DETROIT -1 1/2
Dominic Fazzini
Cleveland at DETROIT
Justin Verlander (9-4, 3.59 ERA) has bounced back from a disappointing 2008 season and is bound for the All-Star Game in St. Louis on Tuesday.
The Tigers right-hander has been outstanding in seven starts at Comerica Park this season, going 5-0 with a major league-best 1.54 ERA at home.
Verlander leads the American League in strikeouts with 141 and has re-established himself as Detroit’s ace. He is 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in two starts vs. the Indians this year, including a two-hit shutout in Cleveland on May 8.
He will be opposed by Cleveland right-hander Tomo Ohka (0-2, 5.65), who is making a spot start after left-hander Jeremy Sowers was sent to Triple-A Columbus on Thursday.
Ohka is 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in three starts, and hasn’t won a major league game since April 2007. He is 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA in two career starts vs. Detroit.
Detroit and Cleveland are teams going in opposite directions right now, and the All-Star break can’t come fast enough for the Indians. In fact, they might decide to start their vacation early after getting a look at Verlander for a few innings today. This one looks easy to call. Go with the Tigers on the run line.
4♦ DETROIT -1 1/2
Karl Garrett
Toronto at BALTIMORE -120
Now 9-4 the last 13 days with my comp plays!
For Sunday, take Baltimore to down Toronto one more time. The Orioles won in extra-innings last night to improve to 4-1 this season at home against the Blue Jays.
That win made it a 3-1 run for the O's their last 4 games, while Toronto lost for the 7th time in their last 9 games.
The Jays will go with Marc Rzepczyski who is making only his second start at this level, and that spells trouble, especially since he was solid in his first start at Tampa, allowing just 1 run over 6 innings. The G-Man feels this kid is gonna get hit hard today.
Opposing for Baltimore is Brad Bergesen who has taken a liking to his new home, going 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA at Camden Yards this season.
Have to stick with the rookie Bergesen to outduel his rookie counterpart from Toronto.
G-Man on the Orioles.
3♦ BALTIMORE
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees at LA ANGELS +130
We are not sure how you can lay any wood on the road with the Yankees in Anaheim, as the Big "A" continues to be New York's "house of horrors". Already this weekend, the Yankees have blown leads of 5-1, and 4-0 en route to tacking 2 more losses to their California ledger this season.
Overall, the Yankees are 2-9 their last 11 games played at Los Angeles, and today's starter CC Sabathia did take a loss to the Halos back in New York on May 2nd, allowing 4 runs in his 7 innings of work against them.
True, John Lackey is not the John Lackey of old, but if you have been paying attention this weekend, it's as if the Yankees simply don't believe they can beat the Angels in their own ball park.
We will gladly take the Angels plus money to go to the break with the sweep of the New Yorkers.
Play on the Halos.
4♦ LA ANGELS
Bobby Maxwell
Florida -120 at ARIZONA
Today's FREE winner comes from Arizona as Ii go with the Marlins to get the job done against the D'Backs.
The first half of a disastrous season is about to wrap up for the D'Backs, who were supposed to have the talent to compete with the Dodgers in the N.L. West. And it's going to wrap up with the Marlins getting an easy win in Arizona today.
Right-hander Josh Johnson (7-2, 2.82 ERA) is on the hill for the Marlins and this guy is 3-1 on the road for the fish this season. Florida has won seven of his last nine outings and he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last 10 starts. He faced these D'Backs on May 19 and allowed two earned runs in 6.1 innings of work.
Arizona is countering with veteran lefty Doug Davis (4-8, 2.97 ERA). They have lost five of his last six outings and eight of his last 10. He got rocked by these Marlins back on May 20, giving up six runs in 4.1 innings of an 8-6 loss. The D'Backs are just 3-7 in is last 10 starts in front of the home fans.
Florida is on several nice runs with Johnson on the bump, including 24-8 overall, 11-5 on the road, 5-1 on Sundays and 9-2 against teams with losing records. Meanwhile the D'Backs are just 1-6 in Davis' last seven against the N.L. East and 0-4 in his last four Sunday starts.
This game is all Josh Johnson. Play the Marlins.
2♦ FLORIDA
Drew Gordon
Florida at ARIZONA +105
Now on a 24-15 roll with the plays I'm giving away, incl. the White Sox over the Twins 8-7 Saturday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Florida/Arizona match-up.
The Marlins have gotten their asses handed to them in back-to-back games, as both Nolasco and West got lit up Friday & Saturday. It may be tempting to ride the Fish here expecting a bounce back behind their ace, Josh Johnson, but that's a mistake and here's why:
First off, the pitching match up is A LOT closer than bettors think, as Doug Davis has been great over his last 4 starts, allowing a total of 4 runs over his last 27 1/3 innings! The southpaw has also been stellar at Chase Field, albeit his 2-5 record is nothing to write home about, his 2.83 ERA speaks for itself! True, he got roughed up in his last start at Florida, but that was nearly a month and a half ago, and things are different this time around.
How are they different? The Marlins offense has fallen asleep at the wheel for one thing! All-Star Josh Johnson has received just 2.7 runs of support over his last 4 starts, and it isn't going to get any easier against Davis this afternoon! While Florida has hit lefties well at Land Shark Stadium, they have NOT done so on the road, averaging just 4.1 runs per game in that spot, batting .237 in the process!
On the flip side, while bettors are down on this Arizona offense overall, you can't complain with their production at home, where they average a hearty 4.8 runs per game against righties this season. Led by a resurgent Justin Upton, who's a ridiculous 7 for 13 in thus far this series, look for Arizona to get it done this afternoon. Note, for all his gaudy numbers, Johnson isn't nearly as good on the highway, where his ERA rises almost 2 runs, from 1.98 at home to a beatable 3.91 away! In the end, giving me Davis at home, at this price, is too much to pass up against this below average Marlins offense.
Take Arizona behind Davis over Florida and Johnson in this MLB match up.
3♦ ARIZONA
Dunkel
Oakland at Tampa Bay
The A's look to follow up yesterday's 7-2 win and build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 games as a road underdog between +150 and +200. Oakland is the pick (+180) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+180).
Game 951-952: Cincinnati at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 13.426; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.594
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); Under
Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Vasquez) 14.539; Philadelphia (Happ) 16.273
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-210); Over
Game 955-956: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.795; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.760
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+130); Over
Game 957-958: Washington at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 14.251; Houston (Moehler) 16.059
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-115); Under
Game 959-960: Atlanta at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Medlen) 15.156; Colorado (Hammel) 16.375
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-155); Under
Game 961-962: San Diego at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 14.506; San Francisco (Zito) 14.153
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+135); Under
Game 963-964: Florida at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 15.507; Arizona (Davis) 16.463
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110); Under
Game 965-966: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.746; Cubs (Wells) 16.027
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 967-968: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Ohka) 14.162; Detroit (Verlander) 15.811
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-240); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-240); Under
Game 969-970: Kansas City at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 14.413; Boston (Beckett) 16.769
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-300); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-300); Over
Game 971-972: Oakland at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 15.516; Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.112
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+180); Over
Game 973-974: Toronto at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Rzepczynski) 14.342; Baltimore (Bergesen) 16.268
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-115); Over
Game 975-976: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 14.086; Minnesota (Baker) 16.058
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-120); Under
Game 977-978: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.421; LA Angels (Lackey) 15.719
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-145); Under
Game 979-980: Texas at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Nippert) 17.055; Seattle (Bedard) 16.020
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Seattle (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+145); Over
Game 981-982: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 15.547; Cubs (Zambrano) 15.135
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
WNBA
Chicago at Seattle
The Storm look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 road games. Seattle is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-11).
Game 601-602: Minnesota at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 106.829; San Antonio 110.887
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 4; 153 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 152
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+7 1/2); Over
Game 603-604: Chicago at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 101.376; Seattle 116.520
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 15; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 11; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-11); Over
THE SPREAD
Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets, 1:10PM ET
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
NY Mets are 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Mets's last 8 games
Pick: NY Mets
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, 2:10PM ET
Chi White Sox are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
Pick: Minnesota
Florida Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10PM ET
Florida is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Florida is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Arizona is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Florida
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida
Pick: Florida