Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday July, 15

MTi Sports

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are 14-0 as a favorite over a National League foe when they are off a night loss in which they held the lead, winning by an average of 3.2 runs per game. The Pirates are 3-15 as a dog in the last game of a series when they are off a win. They are 0-5 their last five in this spot and all five have been from this season. The Brewers are the side on which to be here.

Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have taken 25 of the last 32 from the Rockies and snapped their five game losing streak last night with an 8-5 victory. The Phillies have won 6 of 9 as a road favorite from -100 to -125 and have Cole Hamels making the start today. The Phillies are 6-2 on the road when Hamels starts and have won his last 3 decisions vs Colorado as he has allowed just 5 earned runs spanning 22 innings. Today he will oppose Drew Pomeranz, who has pitched well in his limited starts this season. Colorado is averaging just 3 runs over the past 7 and have lost 11 of 14 on Sunday. When installed as a home dog from +100 to +125 they have lost 5 of 6. Even worse they have lost 7 of the last 9 vs Lefthanders. Look for the Phillies to take the rubber game here today.

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia vs. Colorado
Pick: Philadelphia

When Cole Hamels and the Phillies meet the Rockies in the finale of this three-game series Sunday afternoon Philadelphia will take the field knowing Hamels is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three team starts against Colordao. Hamels is also 12-5 in his last 17 team starts during the month of July. With the Rockies a paltry 5-23 on weekends this season at the All-Star break, look for the Phillies to improve to 10-2 their last 12 games in this park here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Dave Cokin

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves
Pick: New York Mets

Welcome back to the bigs for Ben Sheets, but he's been hittable in a short stint at Gwinnett. I'll have to side with Johan Santana and the Mets to capture the series finale.

Jim Feist

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves
Pick: New York Mets

The Mets and Braves are both chasing the Nationals for first place in the NL East. The way the Nationals have been playing it looks like both of these clubs need this game to stay close. The Braves have been the hotter team entering today's contest. However, a big question mark on the mound today for the Braves as Ben Sheets makes his first starts since 2010. Sheets has had arm problems over his career, but the Braves signed him a minor-league deal early in July. In two starts at AA Mississippi, Sheets was 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA, though he did strike out 10 batters in 10 2/3 innings. However, this was against Double-A players and not the Mets. Johan Santana will start for the Mets with a 6-5 record and 3.24 ERA. Santana had been pitching pretty well until his last start before the All-Star game where he allowed 13 hits and seven runs over 4 2/3 innings to the Cubs. Still Santana has been a decent pitcher and with Sheets a big question mark today, I'm going to take the Mets here.

SPORTS WAGERS

TAMPA BAY -105 over Boston

Josh Beckett has four wins in 14 starts. The Red Sox have lost the last five times he’s taken the mound and it’s no mystery as to why he’s struggles this year. Beckett comes in with a 4.43 ERA, which is right in line with his lackluster 4.53 xERA. He continues to get himself in more jams than most. What we‘re likely seeing, are the effects from an injury plagued 2010 and a ton of mileage over the years on his arm. Boston's average road record (22-20) hasn't helped either. James Shields is anything but average. Shields is inducing more groundballs this season with a wicked sinking fastball, a pitch that he seems to be emphasizing with runners on base. He has a 66% groundball % with men on base, compared to a 50% GB% with the bases empty. He has elite overall skills in both situations. He also has 109 K’s and just 34 walks in 119 innings. The guy is for real and is underpriced here at home.

MINNESOTA -107 over Oakland

Prior to his last start just before the break, Jarrod Parker had been dealing it with four outstanding starts in a row that included a three-hit, seven inning performance in Colorado and a six-hit, one run, 6.2 inning outing against the Red Sox. In those four starts, Parker allowed three runs in 26.2 frames. Parker came into the season with top prospect status and so far, he’s impressed. However, everything about his profile says his numbers are a mirage. He’s a fly-ball pitcher with a low and unsustainable HR/FB ratio of 5.1%. When that corrects, so too will his 2.86 ERA. He also walks far too many batters (41 in 85 innings) and when his 81% strand rate normalizes his ERA will do the same. This is a guy with an ERA under three with poor control and a fly-ball bias profile. There’s a reason he’s allowed six runs in three of his last 10 starts. Parker has an xERA of 4.59, which is more believable than his surface numbers. We'll be at the front of this line as the correction takes place.

Dave Price

Detroit Tigers -170

I'll lay this juice with the Tigers today behind 2011 AL Cy Young and MVP winner, Justin Verlander. The right-hander has been dominant once again in 2012, going 9-5 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in 18 starts this season. Miguel Gonzalez makes just his second start of the season for the Orioles in this one, and he's no match for Verlander. Detroit's ace has never lost to Baltimore, going 6-0 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in nine career starts against the Orioles. Bet the Tigers.

Scott Spreitzer

LA Angels -109

LAA went into the all-star break on a 30-13 run, but have cooled off a bit, losing back-to-back games to the Yankees, despite leading in both games. While two losses does not a slump make, it's certainly nice to have a pitcher like Jered Weaver on the hill to help avoid a slump. Weaver has been nothing short of spectacular in just about every key scenario one could imagine in 2012. He did give up 3 unearned runs in his lone start against the Yankees this season, leaving with a bad back before recording a single out. But Weaver dominated the Yanks in a pair of starts against them last season, holding NY to 3 earned runs and 12 base runners, with 19 "punch-outs" in 15 innings of work. I expect another strong outing in this one. The Yankees counter with Ivan Nova. We have bet on Nova a couple of times of late, but not here. Nova has not enjoyed his outings against the Angels, saddled with a hefty 5.11 ERA & 1.58 WHIP in four career starts. Nova heads into Sunday with a 1.38 WHIP and .277 BAA on the season. The Angels have taken care of starting pitchers with a WHIP north of 1.30, going 21-7 in their last 28 tries. They're 38-15 in Weaver's last 53 starts and on a 5-0 run when the righty faces a team with a winning record. Finally, his team is on a 4-0 run when he toes the rubber against the Yankees. I'm backing the Angels on Sunday afternoon.

Michael Alexander

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

PHILADELPHIA is 40-18 in their last 58 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400

PHILADELPHIA is 10-4 in Hamels' last 14 starts as a favorite

COLORADO is 13-27 in their last 40 games following a loss

Ross King

Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Chicago White Sox

Whitesox 24-17 on the road while Kanas City the last 3 seasons are 72-105 after a win and 88-123 versus teams with a winning record aswell as 34-53 versus teams in the second half of the season with winning records.Sale has been been tremendous this year except for his one game against these Royals and i expect him to get some revenge here.Since the loss to Kansas City he is 7-0 with a 1.67 e.r.a not including his scoreless inning in the All Star game.Take Chicago Whitseox as your freeplay winner as Sale has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 8 of his 9 games and Kanas City is 38-66 the last 3 seasons versus left handed starters.

Jesse Schule

St. Louis vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Over

Johnny Cueto will not get the start for Cincinnati today, due to a blister on his finger. Instead, Homer Bailey will get the call for the Reds.

Bailey (7-6, 4.14 ERA) has not been nearly as good as Cueto this season. He has won his last two starts, but in doing so he has given up six runs on 12 hits, including a pair of homers over 14 innings. He has allowed home runs in each of his last four starts, including a pair of homers in his last home start. In that game he allowed five runs on seven hits, and was chased from the game early after just four innings by the Brewers, who won by a score of 8-4. He is 0-3 in his last four home game, and the Reds have lost all four of those contests.

The Cardinals will give the ball to vetern Jake Westbrook, who has put together a long stretch of consecutive solid starts. Westbrook (7-7, 3.75 ERA) lost his last start, despite going six strong innings and allowing just one earned run. He hasn't been nearly as prone to giving up home runs as his counterpart today, allowing just two homers over his last six starts. Westbrook is as dependable as it gets, and you can expect a solid outing today from the veteran right-hander.

Matt Holliday is hitting .389 with two homers in 18 at-bats lifetime against Bailey, while David Freese is 3 for 11 with two home runs and a double against the right-hander.

This game could turn into a slugfest!

Jimmy Boyd

Los Angeles Angels -101

After losing the first two games of this series to the New York Yankees, I'll back the Los Angeles Angels to salvage it with a victory in Game 3 Sunday. Ace Jered Weaver gets the ball, which clearly gives the Angels an edge on the mound over Ivan Nova and the Yankees.

Weaver has been nothing short of dominant this season, going 10-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in 15 starts, including 3-0 with a miniscule 0.42 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in his last three outings. Nova is 10-3 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.378 WHIP in 17 starts, but just 3-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in seven home outings.

The Angels are 9-0 in Weaver's last 9 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 6-0 in Weaver's last 6 starts vs. American League East. The Angels are 8-1 in Weaver's last 9 starts with 7 or more days of rest. Take Los Angeles.

Scott Delaney

My free play for Sunday is going to be the Chicago White Sox on the Run Line over the Kansas City Royals. And with the run-line wagers always encompassing the auto-list feature with the scheduled pitchers at the time of making the wager, I want you on Chris Sale. As long as he is going, I want you on the South Siders.

After all, Sale has been arguably the best pitcher on the staff this season, and he comes in after throwing one scoreless inning during his All-Star debut, needing just 13 pitches to cover the frame. Now he steps to the hill after having 11 days in between starts when he takes the mound today. He's 2-0 with a 1.21 ERA in his last three starts, and is 10-2 with a 2.19 ERA on the year.

The White Sox are sitting three games in front of the Cleveland Indians and are 3-1/2 ahead of the Detroit Tigers in the American League Central. And make note, the White Sox have won eight of their last 10 games against their division rivals. During that span they've outscored opponents, 80-49.

Today they're going to blast the Royals in this series finale.

1♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Chuck O'Brien

My free pick run is now at 77-45, and today I am playing the Under in the Rangers/Mariners game, as I have this game staying well below the 8-point total, and I want you to be sure the pitchers of record are Texas' Matt Harrison and Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma.

Been an interesting series thus far, as Texas won the first game, 3-2, on Friday night, while the Mariners, on the strength of ace Felix Hernandez's arm, won 7-0 yesterday. Today in the season finale I like the total to stay low.

The Rangers' Harrison comes into this one taking aim at his American League-leading 12th game in his first start after the All-Star break. The crafty southpaw is 8-1 with a 2.51 ERA lifetime against the Mariners, and he beat them in back-to-back starts in May, posting a 1.80 ERA and 12 strikeouts. So confidence should prevail when he takes the hill.

Now, from the other dugout, heading to the mound is a right-handed Tokyo-import who moves into the rotation after spending the first three months as a long reliever for the M's. With Hector Noesi being sent down to Triple-A, the former Japanese standout gets his chance at turning his durability into a spot in the rotation.

He lasted five innings and allowed just three runs and three hits versus the Orioles in a spot start July 2, but now it appears he's going to be starting a bit longer. Look for him to accept the challenge from Harrison, and this one to stay low.

2♦ Rangers/Mariners UNDER