Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Phillies over the Rockies.
The wins this summer have been few-and-far-between for Philadelphia, but they did just snap a five game skid with the win last night over Colorado, and they do have their best pitcher this season on the mound in Cole Hamels.
Hamels goes against highly-touted Drew Pomeranz, and my money goes on the southpaw from Philadelphia. Hamels is 0-1 the last three times he has started, but at 10-4 for the season, and 5-1 away from home, I expect Hamels to settle in and deal this afternoon against the Rockies.
Philadelphia has not won a series in nearly a month, so expect them to be on a mission today against the 1-3 Pomeranz.
The Phillies have won 7 of the last 10 series meetings against the Rockies, and you can make that 8 of 11 when Hamels outduels Pomeranz today at Coors Field for the series win.
Go with Philly.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Chris Jordan
I am on a 16-6 run with my free picks, and after scoring a miraculous win on the New York Yankees Friday night at home against the Anaheim Angels, and last night with the Atlanta Braves getting it done over the New York Mets behind a three-run eighth inning, I'm coming back for my third winner in as many days with the Braves for a second consecutive day.
And yes, I want you listing Ben Sheets over Johan Santana.
Good to see Sheets back in the bigs, as he will make his first big league start since July 19, 2010, when he was a member of the Oakland Athletics. He has since had Tommy John surgery, but is ready for another stint in the bigs.
The once power-right-hander, a four-time All-Star, has made two Minor League starts for the Braves organization. He allowed six earned runs over 10-2/3 innings with Double-A Mississippi, however, reports are he is throwing in the low 90s once again, complimented by a very respectable curve, which is probably why he also struck out 10 and walked just one.
On the other hand, Santana comes in off one of his worst starts of the season, in which he allowed 13 hits - including three home runs - and seven runs in a loss to the lowly Chicago Cubs. The left-hander sprained his right ankle in the game, but apparently he is ready to pitch. Nevertheless, I don't know if he's ready for this trip into the A-T-L.
3♦ ATLANTA
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play...
I'm on a 41-28 roll with these plays I'm giving away daily and for Sunday I like the Reds to complete a three-game home sweep of St. Louis in another N.L. Central showdown between these two bitter rivals.
The Reds rallied Friday to take the opener 5-3 and then took Saturday's contest 3-2 on Ryan Ludwick's walkoff homer.
Cincinnati, winners of five in a row, was scheduled to send Johnny Cueto to the hill for today's contest. However, he was scratched because of a blister on his pitching hand so Homer Bailey will get the ball instead. He's allowed four earned runs in 14.3 innings in his last two starts - both on the road - against the Dodgers and Padres.
Huge price break because of the pitching change in this contest. With Cueto scheduled, Cincy was -160 overnight. But with Bailey going, I'm getting the Reds at around -120, and I'll take them as they improve to 5-1 in their last six home games overall as the Cardinals lose for the fourth straight time on the road.
4♦ CINCINNATI
Matt Rivers
Pittsburgh is in first place. Pittsburgh has won three of the five series meetings this year, including a 6-4 win last night at Miller Park, and Pittsburgh does have the 10-2 A.J. Burnett on the mound.
True, Burnett has been giving up some runs his last few times to the bump, but the Pirates don't seem to mind, as they are 13-2 this season when Burnett makes the start.
Yovani Gallardo has been strong of late, sporting an under two ERA his last three trips to the mound, but he is only 7-6 for the season and the Brewers just 10-8 when he starts.
Milwaukee has dropped four of their last seven games, while Pittsburgh is on an 11-3 overall run their last 14 games.
I see solid value in backing the first place Pirates in the underdog role today.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
MLB Predictions
Oakland Athletics +104
The Oakland Athletics have taken the first two of this series 9-3 and 6-3 and are looking for the series sweep tonight. They have won 8 of their last 9 games overall to move to 45-43 on the year. The Twins have lost 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 to drop to 36-51 on the year and they are just 17-27 at home. This afternoon's starter for Oakland is Jarrod Parker who is 5-4 with a 2.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .216 opponents batting average. He entered the All Star break off of a rough start where he gave up 5 earned runs over 4.2 innings, but he had allowed 1 earned run against or less in 7 of his previous 8 starts. Not looking too much into it, but in day games he is 2-1 with a stellar 1.36 ERA (5 starts). Brian Duensing will make his 4th start of the season today. He is 1-5 on the year with a 4.11 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and .253 opponents batting average over 33 appearances. As a starter he is 0-3 with a 7.15 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and .327 opponents batting average. Take note that the Twins are just 2-7 in their last 9 games as a favorite, and 24-51 in their last 75 home games overall. They are just 7-20 in Duensing's last 27 starts overall, and 1-5 in his last 6 home starts. The A's have won 5 of their last 6 Game 3's, and are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Despite some troubles hitting lefties the A's have been getting things done lately and I like that to continue today behind Parker who has been solid in the majority of his starts this year. With Oakland on a high right now winners of 8 of their last 9 and now in contention for a Wild Card spot I like them to complete the sweep, and will take it as a 2 unit play with the underdog price.
Jack Jones
Chicago White Sox -164
Chris Sale remains one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball. Considering the huge advantage the White Sox have on the rubber in this one, I'll back them to beat the Kansas City Royals Sunday in blowout fashion.
Sale made the All-Star game thanks to a 10-2 record, a 2.19 ERA and a 0.954 WHIP in 15 starts and one relief appearance this season. He'll be opposed by Luis Mendoza, who is 3-5 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.527 WHIP in 10 starts and five relief appearances for the Royals. Mendoza is 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.886 WHIP in five home starts.
The White Sox are a perfect 7-0 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 over the last 2 seasons. Chicago is 7-1 in Sale's last 8 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss. The Royals are 1-4 in Mendoza's last 5 starts as a home underdog. Bet the White Sox Sunday.
Wunderdog
Cleveland at Toronto
Pick: Toronto -150
The Jays were shutout in the opener of this series, but hung up a snowman early (8 run inning) against the Tribe, to come away with the series equalizer yesterday. Carlos Villenueva has pitched well in a Jays uniform at 9-4, including 3-0 this year with an ERA of 3.05. The same can't be said for the recent performances of the Tribe's Derek Lowe. Lowe over his last nine starts has seen the Tribe go 3-6 while he pitches to a 7.53 ERA in his last eight starts. The Indians are just 9-21 in their last 30 vs. a team with a winning home record. The Jays are making hay as a -110 to -150 favorite where they have declared victory in eight of their last ten. The Tribe has been pounded behind Lowe as a road dog losers of their last five. Make the play on Toronto