Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 18,2010

Marc Lawrence
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New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: New York Mets
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The Mets and Giants wrapup their four-game series in San Francisco this afternoon when Johan Santana meets Jonathon Sanchez at AT&T Park. Santana is suddenly in fine current form with a 0.39 ERA in his last three starts. He's also 4-1 in his career team starts in this series, including 1-0 in this park, and 13-7 in his last 20 team starts in July. On the other side of the coin, Sanchez is 1-4 in his career team starts in this series and just 4-7 in his 11 career team starts during July. Too many good numbers to pass by in this matchup, especially with Santana in season-peak form. Back the Mets here today.

Larry Ness
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Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
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The Reds 'limped' into the All Star break on a four-game losing streak but still owned a one-game lead in the NL Central, the first time the team had lead at the break since 1995 (also, the last time the Reds had made the postseason). They've opened the second half with consecutive wins and Sunday will try to make it a three-game sweep of the Rockies. The Colorado bats have been quiet, scoring a total of just three runs (on nine hits) in the first two games and today will face rookie lefty Travis Wood. This is his fourth start, after three consecutive no decisions. In his last outing, he and Halladay each went nine scoreless innings (Wood took a perfect game into the 9th and had an 8-0 KW ratio while Halladay had a 9-1 ratio), in a game won 1-0 in 11 innings by the Phils. Wood has allowed just nine hits in his 20.2 innings, posting a 2.18 ERA and owning a 17-5 KW ratio in his three starts (team is 2-1). One has to like Wood in his matchup with Aaron Cook. Cook was an All Star back in 2008 (16-9, 3.96 ERA) but was not that good last year, going 11-6 with a 4.16 ERA while allowing 176 hits in 158 innings. He's 3-5 with a 4.88 ERA in 17 starts this season but look at his home and away breakdown. Cook is 3-0 with a 3.25 ERA in Coors Field (team is 6-2) but 0-5 with a 6.61 ERA on the road (team is 2-7). He's actually winless on the road since beating San Diego on July 16, 2009, going 0-7 with a 7.08 ERA in his last 12 away regular season starts (team is 3-9). Look for the Reds to get the home sweep.

MTi Sports
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Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Dodgers are 21-1 as a 120+ favorite vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series. The Cardinals are 0-7 after scoring 3 runs or less and winning and it is the last game of a series and 0-5 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is the last game of a series. Consider the Dodgers.

Rocketman
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Washington Nationals vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
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Washington is 1-9 this year as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Washington is 2-13 this year on the road when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Washington has lost 4 of their last 6 games overall. Washington is 15-29 on the road this year. Craig Stammen is 1-2 with a 6.94 ERA on the road this year and has a 7.32 ERA his last 3 starts. Alex Sanabia has a 0.00 ERA his last 3 starts. Florida is 30-13 overall against Washington the past 3 years including 17-6 at home. Stammen is 0-1 with a 6.11 ERA overall vs Florida since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Florida today!

BIG AL
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
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Roy Halladay gets the call for Charlie Manuel's Phillies tonight, and there's very little one can find fault with when one looks at his 2010 campaign. He's "only" 10-7 this year, but that has much more to do with a lack of run support than with his performance. Indeed, his 2.19 ERA and 1.05 WHIP place him among baseball's best this season. And certainly, such stats would predict a better record than 10-7. And, over his last three outings, Halladay's numbers improve to 1.73 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Granted, Halladay has never defeated Chicago in his career. But he's had just two starts (going 0-2), and his ERA vs. the Cubbies is still a very respectable 3.00, with a WHIP of 1.25. He'll match-up with Tom Gorzelanny tonight, and Gorzelanny has also pitched very well this year (3.16 ERA; 1.40 WHIP). But at home, in hitter-friendly Wrigley Field, Gorzelanny has a 4.50 ERA with a less-than-impressive 1.56 WHIP. Yesterday, Philadelphia erupted for four runs in the 9th inning to overtake Chicago with a 4-1 victory. And I often look to go against teams in their next game after blowing a 9th inning lead. The Cubbies are a poor 26-35 vs. righties this season. Take Philadelphia.

SPORTS WAGERS
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San Francisco +1.02 over NY METS
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The Giants are dominating this four-game series and there’s no reason to expect that to stop here. First, the Mets are seeing BB’s and when you’re in an offensive funk, snapping out of it becomes more difficult which each passing game. The Mets have batted .174 in losing the first three games of this series and they were held scoreless in the first 24 innings of this series. Jonathan Sanchez has had trouble in two of his last three starts but so what. He’s allowed three runs or less in 14 of his 19 starts this season and he’s been outstanding at home. In fact, he’s allowed just 38 hits in 53 IP at home for a BAA of .200. He also has struck out 104 batters in 103 innings and faces a Mets team that has dropped six of seven and that’s still on its All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Giants are red-hot with five straight victories and 10 wins in its last 12 games. Over that stretch of a dozen games, the Giants lead the majors with 78 runs scored while the Mets have scored 38 times over that same stretch, which is 40 less runs than the Giants. Johan Santana is considered to be the Mets ace by many and he does have the stats to back that up but he’s also been one of the luckiest pitchers in the business. Santana has a strand-rate of 77.6% and that’s an incredibly high number that he simply can’t sustain. His groundball rate is also way down at 34% and those are two red flags to be sure. Santana’s 2.98 ERA looks damn sweet until you look at the 4.69 xERA that is hiding behind it. Santana's strikeout rate is declining, his walks are increasing and everything about him is a mirage and there are big corrections forthcoming in his numbers. Hopefully it starts here. Play: San Francisco +1.02 (Risking 2 units).

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CINCINNATI –1½ +1.51 over Colorado
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After losing nine straight to the Rockies, the Reds have won the first two games of this series with the Rockies scoring a total of three runs in the first two games. Now the Rocks will have to face a pitcher they’ve never seen and that’s not a favorable situation, especially when said pitcher is going good. Travis Wood is coming off a complete game, one-hitter in Philadelphia. In three starts, covering 20.2 innings, Wood has allowed just nine hits, walked just five and struck out 17. He has a WHIP of 0.68, a BAA of 1.27 and an ERA of 2.17. It’s a small sample size but one can’t argue his effectiveness thus far and he catches the Rocks at a very good time. Meanwhile, the Reds have seen plenty of Aaron Cook. In fact, Reds hitters have a combined 76 AB’s against Cook and they’re hitting .395 off him. The foursome of Rolen, Cabrera, Votto and Phillips has 20 hits in 49 AB’s against Cook. Cook is also 0-5 on the road with an ERA of 6.70 and a BAA of .314. Overall, he’s walked 40 and struck out 44. In 17 starts this season, Cook has three wins. Frankly, there’s nothing to like about Cook and facing the Reds in Cincinnati does nothing to change that. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.51 (Risking 2 units).

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Milwaukee +1.59 over ATLANTA
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If Dave Bush and Randy Wolf can beat Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson there’s no reason why Manny Parra can’t beat Derek Lowe. In fact, this pitching match-up is by far the most favorable of them all. Manny Parra is very capable of a dominating performance. This guy is so close (yet so far) from becoming an elite pitcher and now he’ll face a Braves club that is under .500 against southpaws. Parra had a 4.18 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in June, marks that have kept some backers on the sideline. But an elevated 37% hit rate had a lot to do with his high WHIP. His base skills remind us why Parra was and still is a legit breakout candidate. He has a 47 % GB rate, which is an outstanding number and he also displays good control with his four pitches. Parra uses a split-fingered fastball, a change and curve (to go along with a fastball) and now he’s developing a fifth pitch, the slider to add to his repertoire. The Braves have scored just eight runs in the first three games of this set while the Brewers have scored 15 the last two days. In addition, Milwaukee has won five of its last six and will face the very beatable Lowe in this one. Lowe’s numbers get worse and worse as the game progresses. He’s awful the second time through line-ups and his numbers fall into a black hole (6.29 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP) the third time through. Lowe is no youngster (he’s 37) and his skills continue to decline. His ground ball rate is declining, his walks are increasing and his strikeouts are declining as well. Those are all signs of age catching up to him, as we’ve actually seen a groundball decline in each of the last four seasons with this year being his lowest. Lowe is in the midst of a four-year 60 million dollar contract and given the chance, the Braves would dump this guy in a heartbeat. He could be in a rough second half. Play: Milwaukee +1.59 (Risking 2 units).

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Chicago +1.00 over MINNESOTA
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Well, you can really never be sure how Freddy Garcia will perform but this has absolutely nothing to do with him. Instead, this one is all about not laying a single penny to wager against Nick Blackburn and before we explain, note that the South Side makes contact more than any team in the league. This past March, the Twins locked up Nick Blackburn with a four-year, $14 million contract. The deal covers his final pre-arbitration season in 2010, his three arbitration years and includes an $8 million option for 2014, Blackburn’s first season of free agent eligibility. We mention that because the only reason he’s not in the minors is that ridiculous contract. Blackburn established himself as a solid rotation cog over the 2008 and 2009 seasons, using surgical command (1.81 BB/9) to compensate for a paltry punch out rate (4.4 K/9). His ERA over that period was 4.38, and his xERA was 4.52. In 2010, The Twins expected more of the same from Blackburn. Instead, the 28-year-old has been battered for a 6.40 ERA in 97 innings. That’s the second-highest mark among qualified starters. Granted, Blackburn’s ERA does overstate the depth of his struggles — his BABIP is .324 (.314 career average), his rate of stranding base runners is 66.2% and his home run per fly ball rate is 14.8% (10.7%). But even so, his XERA has ballooned to 5.44. Blackburn’s already-low K rate has nosedived into Kirk Rueter-esque territory. He’s striking out just 3.15 batters per nine frames, by far the lowest among qualified starters (Aaron Cook is second, at 3.97 K/9). Nick’s swinging strike rate, 6.5% in 2008 and 5.4% in 2009, sits at an MLB-low 2.9% (Rodrigo Lopez is next, at four percent; the MLB average is 8-9%). His overall contact rate has spiked, from 86.7% in ’08 and 88.1% in ’09 to a MLB-high 93.7% this season. Fact is, Blackburn seldom misses a bat and his walks are increasing. He’s the least appealing favorite in all of baseball and he’s an instant fade when he’s the chalk. Play: Chicago +1.00 (Risking 2 units).

Tom Freese
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Ny Mets at San Francisco
Play: NY Mets
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New York starter Johan Santana has allowed 1 run total in his last 3 starts. The Mets are 11-4 their last 15 games after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. New York is 5-2 their last 7 games as road favorites. Santana is 7-3 vs. NL West teams. San Francico starter Jonathan Sanchez has not pitched past the sixth inning in any of his last 5 starts. The Giants are 2-7 their last 9 starts made by Sanchez following an outing of less than 4 innings and they are 1-6 with Sanchez with 7 or more days rest.

EZWINNERS
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New York Mets -108
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The Giants starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez is 7-6 this season with an ERA of 3.47, but in his last three starts Sanchez's ERA has ballooned up to 6.14. The Mets hit him pretty hard earlier this season for seven hits and four earned runs in a no decision and I expect New York to get the bats going against Sanchez here today. Johan Santana takes the mound for the Mets and Santana is rolling right now. In his last three starts Santana is 2-0 with an ERA of only 0.39. Both of these pitchers have had some extra rest due to the All-Star break, but San Francisco is only 1-6 in Sanchez's last seven starts with seven or more days of rest and the Giants are also 0-4 in Sanchez's last four starts against the Mets. Play on New York.

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Rays +128
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David Price continues to impress for the Tampa Bay Rays. He's 12-4 on the season with a 2.42 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, including a 6-3 mark on the road. The Rays have been nearly as good on the road this season as the Yankees have been good at home. The Bronx Bombers are 29-14 at Yankee Stadium this year, while Tampa is 29-15 in their road games. The Rays' also have an edge in the bullpen in this series. The Yankees' pen has been surprisingly ineffective with a collective record of 5-5 and ERA well over 5.00 at home this season. By comparison the Rays' pen is 6-2 with a 2.86 ERA on the road this year. The Yanks don't hit lefties particularly well and Price has been one of the best in the AL this season.

Ross Benjamin

Tampa Bay @ NY Yankees
Play: Under 8.5

In a battle of arguably the 2 best southpaws in the American League this has all the earmarks of an old fashion pitcher's duel. A lot of early money has gone on the over in this game yet some of the books that I respect the most have changed the juice but won't budge from the number. In 9 starts during the day this season the veteran Andy Pettite has been terrific in posting a sparkling 2.14 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Pettite has seen 8 of his last 10 starts versus the Rays go under the total. The Rays youngster David Price has seen 5 of his 7 starts during the day go under the total this season with much being attributed to his stellar 2.47 ERA. In spite of all the meetings between these 2 clubs going over the total this one will break the trend today. Play on this game to go under the total as my free selection of the day.

Brad Diamond
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Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels
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Behind RHP Santana the Angels are 6-1 versus at home. In addition, the recharging Angels show at 27-10 overall in Los Angeles against the struggling Mariners. Finally, we find the Angels at 40-18 at home in Sunday affairs. Don't miss my Sunday BEST BET that includes the #1 pitching box on the card. Currently, my boxes are CRUSHING at 48-31 after winning last night with the Blue Jays.

Gill Alexander
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TEX (+145) vs BOS
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For a 4th straight day, we back the Texas Rangers. We won the first two and came within one out of winning a third straight before getting beaten in 11 innings yesterday. Today, it's the first of the four in which we back the Rangers as dogs -- failrly significantly sized dogs. Wilson has a career 1.56ERA in 17.1IP v Bos, including 6.2IP of scoreless ball earlier this season. He is holding lefties to an anemic .096BA this season, effectively mitigating any effect that David Ortiz might have against him. Among likely batters in the BoSox lineup on Sunday, only Adrian Beltre has had significant success v Wilson, going 4-for-10 lifetime. Opponents are hitting just .203 overall v Lester in 2010. He has 5 straight quality starts and 9 in his last 10. He has a 1.60ERA in his last 6 starts at Fenway and a 1.90ERA in his last 15 starts overall. However, the heart of the Rangers lineup, Michael Young, Vladimir Guerrero, and Josh Hamilton, have hit a combined 15-for-36 (.417) v Lester over the last 5 seasons. Knowing that, I've got to take Texas here. Were this at +120, I'd probably take a pass. But +145 represents about 25 cents of value to me. I don't let those types of opportunities slip by.

JIM FEIST

ROCKIES / REDS
PLAY: OVER

Aaron Harang has had to miss some starts for the Cincinnati Reds and in his absence Travis Wood has stepped up and done great. Wood has no record, but in three starts he has a 2.18 ERA with a 0.68 WHIP. In his last start against the Phillies he went nine innings, allowed just one hit and no runs. Aaron Cook goes for the Rockies and he's 3-5 this year with a 4.88 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Cook has gotten hit hard on the Road, going 0-5 with a 6.70 ERA. And today he plays in one of the worst pitcher parks in baseball at Cincinnati. The Reds are crushing the ball, especially at home in their hitter friend park and on Sunday I see the Reds teeing off on Cook. Wood should put up another good game, but I don't see Cook being around very long in this game. I'm going with the OVER here on Sunday.

Bobby Maxwell

Nailed the FREE winner on Saturday as the Reds stomped the Rockies in Cincinnati, improving my comp record to 121-108-3. Today, I have a freebie for you as i'm going to go with the Mets on the road in San Francisco.

Battle of left-handers here as the Mets and Giants wrap up a four-game set in San Francisco. I’m giving the edge today to the Mets and Johan Santana (7-5, 2.98 ERA) who should be able to shut down the Giants’ offense.

Santana is 2-0 in his last three outings with a 0.39 ERA, allowing one run in his last 23 innings. A week ago he blanked the Braves for seven innings in a 3-0 win while back on July 6 he threw a complete-game shutout against the Reds, winning 3-0. His last roadie was on July 1 in Washington when he allowed one run on six hits in seven innings but fell 2-1.

Santana has made five career starts against the Giants and his teams have won four of them, including back on May 8 when he gave up four runs in 7.2 innings but his offense got him a 5-4 victory.

Jonathan Sanchez (7-6, 3.47 ERA) goes for the Giants and he wasn’t so good back on July 10 in Washington when he gave up five runs on five hits in 3.2 innings, but his offense rallied and won the game 10-5. His last home start was June 30 when he gave up five runs in six innings to the dodgers in an 8-2 loss. In his five career starts against the Mets, the Giants are just 1-4, including an ugly outing on May 7 when he allowed four runs in seven innings of a 6-4 loss.

New York is 7-1 in Sunday games, 7-3 when Santana faces teams from the N.L. West and 4-0 when he gets six days off between outings. The Giants are just 1-6 when Sanchez gets seven days off between outings and 3-8 against teams with winning records.

I’m going to pay the price and play the Mets today behind the red-hot Santana.

4♦ N.Y. METS