Chuck O'Brien
Sunday’s complimentary selection comes from the Bronx, as I’ll back the Rays and David Price as a nice underdog against the Yankees.
Obviously, Andy Pettitte (11-2, 2.70 ERA) has been a stud for the Yankees this season. However, David Price (12-4, 2.42) has been even better, and to get the pitcher with the American League’s best ERA at an underdog price is too good to pass up. Prior to starting the All-Star game for the A.L. on Tuesday, Price had gone eight consecutive starts in which he gave up three earned runs or fewer, and in his last three outings he’s 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA and 27 strikeouts versus just six walks.
Price has enjoyed great success against New York in his brief career, too, going 2-0 with a 2.56 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in four starts. The Yanks are batting just .153 in 31 2/3 innings against Price, and in two games last year at Yankee Stadium, Price held New York to just three earned runs on five hits in 11 2/3 innings.
Two more points to make about Pettitte: First off, his two losses have both come at home. Secondly, one of those two losses came against the Rays on May 20. In that contest, he allowed a season-high seven runs (six earned) on nine hits (three home runs) in five innings. The last four times Pettitte has faced Tampa – going back to May 7 of last season – the southpaw has yielded 19 runs (16 earned) in 21 1/3 innings (6.75 ERA), and he’s served up nine home runs in those 21 2/3 innings.
With Saturday’s 10-5 romp over the Yankees, Tampa Bay has now won 11 of its last 14 games, going 5-2 on the road during this stretch. Also, the Rays improved baseball’s best road record to 29-15, and that includes three wins in four games in the Bronx.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Karl Garrett
After a pair of overs this weekend, and 3 straight overs for both the Rays and the Yankees, it is time for the starting pitchers to do their job, and keep the series finale between the Rays and the Yankees under the posted total.
All 7 of this year's meetings between the clubs have gone over, but David Price and Andy Pettitte will see to it that this one features plenty of goose eggs.
Price comes in with a slender 2.42 season ERA, and he has held the Yankees to only 7 runs his last 27 innings of work against them.
Pettitte's season ERA is not much higher, at 2.70 for the year, and Pettitte's last start saw only 1 run cross in 8 innings pitched against the Mariners.
Time for the pitching to take front-and-center.
G-Man on the under in the big ball park in the Bronx this afternoon.
2♦ UNDER
BRETT ATKINS
Scored my fourth straight free winner on Saturday night when the A's took care of business in Kansas City against the Royals. Tonight I have a comp winner for you as I go with the Blue Jays to get the win over the Oriles in Baltimore.
Have to go with the Blue Jays in this A.L. East matchup as Toronto’s Shaun Marcum has been great in day games this season, going 5-1 with a 2.98 ERA. He’s held the opposition to three runs or less in seven of his last 10 starts and he’s already beaten the Orioles twice this season.
Back on April 11, Marcum went to Baltimore and held the Orioles to two runs in six innings of a 5-2 win. He then shut out the Orioles for six innings in Toronto a month later.
For Baltimore, it’s Brian Matusz on the hill and this kid has really struggled this season at 3-9, 4.77 ERA. Matusz is 0-5 at home with a 4.70 ERA and the Orioles have dropped seven of his last 10 outings. He faced the Blue Jays last August and gave up five runs on seven hits in 2.2 innings of a 7-3 loss.
Toronto is on positive runs of 8-3 when Marcum starts on the road, 4-1 when he starts on Sunday and 5-1 when he starts on the road against losing teams.
Let’s pay the small price and play the Blue Jays with Marcum on the hill today.
2♦ TORONTO
JAY MCNEIL
Detroit at Cleveland
Going to play the Indians in this matinee affair, as it should be quite an easy task against a Tigers team that has stumbled out the blocks in the second half.
Detroit can't seem to play well on the road, and most certainly can't seem to beat an American League Central foe.
Factoring it all together, not to mention the Tigers have lost three straight to last-place Cleveland after dropping a doubleheader yesterday, I have to play the value with the Tribe.
2♦ CLEVELAND
JOEL TYSON
The last time Roy Oswalt started, he fired a 1 hit shutout with 8 strikeouts at the Pirates. That makes no earned runs allowed for Oswalt in his last 2 starts, which have encompassed 16 innings.
Back Houston and Oswalt to dump the Pirates who were able to snap their 7 game losing streak with the win last night, but have lost 7 of the 8 series meetings this season against the Astros.
Houston is also 17-6 overall since last year against Pittsburgh, and Pirates hurler Paul Maholm is just 3-5 at home this year with a 5.80 home ERA.
Houston the call.
4♦ HOUSTON
JEFF BENTON
For Sunday, we’ll take a shot with Johan Santana and the Mets in a pick-em spot in the finale of a four-game series at San Francisco.
How good was Santana over his final three starts prior to the All-Star break? This good: He allowed just one run in 23 innings, including back-to-back 3-0 victories over the Reds (July 6) and Braves (July 11). For the season, Santana is 7-5 with a 2.98 ERA, and even those numbers are deceiving because Santana had one poor four-start stretch in June when he gave up 17 runs in 25 2/3 innings. Remove those numbers from his ledger, and Santana’s ERA drops to 2.22.
Granted, Santana’s margin for error this season has been as slim as a supermodel. The Mets average less than three runs per game when he pitches, including just 2.1 runs per game in his nine road starts. However, I’m banking on New York’s bats coming to life today against Jonathan Sanchez, who given up 15 earned runs in his last five starts covering just 22 2/3 innings (5.96 ERA). And actually, it’s not the Mets’ bats that have to heat up today; they just have to be patient at the plate, as Sanchez has had serious control issues this season, walking 53 batters in 103 2/3 innings, including 33 walks in his last 10 starts.
And while the Giants are just 1-4 all-time against Santana (including a 5-4 loss in New York on May 8), the Mets are 4-0 the last four times they’ve faced Sanchez (including a 6-4 victory on May 7).
I know these two teams are going in opposite directions right now – the Giants have won five in a row and nine of 10 while the Mets have lost three in a row and eight of 11 – but New York has the clear advantage on the mound today, and Santana is the kind of ace whose job it is to halt losing streaks. He’ll do so today by outdueling Sanchez.
4♦ N.Y. METS
LEE KOSTROSKI
Chicago White Sox -110 over Minnesota Twins
The Twins have been fortunate to sneak out wins the last two games including last night’s speed pitch affair that beat out heavy storms in the Twin Cities. The White Sox have still been the superior team overall and particularly in recent weeks, going 26-7 in the last 33 games. Chicago is 12-6 in the last 18 road games and the White Sox have not lost three consecutive games since mid-April.
Minnesota is just 8-14 in the last 22 games and the Twins have been much less protective of their home ballpark in recent weeks. Minnesota has a 7.14 ERA from its starters in the last ten games and Nick Blackburn has been a prime culprit in those elevating numbers. Blackburn has allowed four or more runs in seven of his last eight starts and not surprisingly the Twins are just 1-7 in that span. His season ERA in day games has climbed to 7.06 and the White Sox worked him for five runs in the last meeting against Blackburn.
On the other end of the spectrum veteran Freddy Garcia has delivered an impressive comeback season. The White Sox are 8-0 in his last eight starts and only once did he allow as many as four runs. Garcia throws strikes and rarely walks batters but he has allowed very few home runs and he is delivering consistent starts deep into games while being backed up by an excellent bullpen. His season ERA is an average 4.36 and while Garcia will not produce high strikeout counts, he is leading the White Sox to wins.
The Twins are just 8-20 in the last 28 games as underdogs and while the Twins dominated this series last season these squads appear to be headed in opposing directions. Despite losing the last two games narrowly Chicago is batting .312 in the last ten games and the recent edge for the pitching staff, particularly in the bullpen has been dramatic. Minnesota’s offense has been missing a lot without Justin Morneau and this should be a good situation for Chicago to even the series as Garcia is not getting the line respect he deserves given his recent numbers.
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds
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Cincy’s Travis Wood will make his fourth major league start today. He has been very good so far allowing just five runs through his first three starts. The Reds average 5.3 runs per game at home. We have found two terrific systems supporting a play on Cincinnati. Play against road teams (COLORADO) where team's hitters strike out 7 or more times/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. This system has cashed 66% of the time over the last five seasons. Play on home teams (CINCINNATI) cold hitting team batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent hot hitting team batting .300 or better over their last 15 games. This system has cashed 67% (54-27) of the time over the last five seasons. Take Cincinnati
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Play on: Cincinnati Reds
Info Plays
3* on Arizona Diamondbacks +125
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Reasons the Diamondbacks win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (NL), after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. This is a 38-13 ML System hitting 74.5% over the last 5 seasons.
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2.) Kevin Correia. He is clearly San Diego's worst starter, going 5-6 with a 5.26 ERA this season. Bet Arizona on the road.
Jeff Alexander
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1* on Red Sox -151
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Jon Lester has been Boston's most effective pitcher this season. He's 11-3 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, including a 6-1 record with a 2.77 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in Fenway park. The Rangers are just barely over .500 on the road, while the Sox are 30-19 in home games this year. Boston hits left-handed starters very well, averaging 6 runs per game against them, while the Rangers do not hit well on the road, averaging just 4.4 runs per game.
Stan Lisowski
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Florida
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Washington is 9-24 on the road against right-handed starters this year and are just 14-20 in day games. Nats go 5-10 in Stammen’s starts while he has an earned run average close to 7 on the road. Marlins are 10-4 in Sunday games.
Jack Jones
Rockies/Reds OVER 8.5
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The odds makers have set this total at least 1 full run lower than what it should be set at in hitter-friendly Cincinnati. These are two of the better offenses in the National League, with Colorado scoring 4.8 RPG and the Reds putting up 4.9 RPG which would be an average of 9.7 RPG. Cincinnati is also hitting .288 while scoring 5.4 RPG at home. The odds makers are acting like Aaron Cook and Travis Wood are two better-than-average starters in this league, but that's simply not the case.
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Cook is 3-5 with a 4.88 ERA this season, and he's clearly past his prime and on the downside of his career. Cook has been atrocious on the road, going 0-5 with a 6.70 ERA and 1.766 WHIP in nine starts away from home. Travis Wood has been solid in 3 starts this year for the Reds, but with such a small sample size I'm far from sold on him just yet. He has faced three struggling line-ups in the Phillies, Mets and Cubs and this match-up against the Rockies will be by far his toughest test yet. The OVER is 6-1 in Rockies last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. The OVER is 12-4 in Rockies last 16 games overall. The OVER is 13-6 in Cook's last 19 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The OVER is 11-5 in Reds last 16 home games and the OVER is 21-8-2 in Reds last 31 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Roll with the OVER Sunday.
WUNDERDOG
Tampa Bay at New York
Pick: Under 8.5
Andy Pettite has had a long successful career, but he may be having his best season ever. Pettite went into the all-star break with an 11-2 mark, but what many don't realize is that the Yankees are now 26-7 in his last 33 starts going back to last year. David Price has been good enough to start the all-star game. The Yankees are weaker against left-hand pitching and it shows as they are now 39-19-3 to the UNDER in their last 61 at home vs. a left-hand starter. The last 10 times Pettitte has started against the Rays, 8 of the 10 have played UNDER. This one stays UNDER the total.
Dan Bebe
CIN (-141) vs COL
This is mostly a fade on Aaron Cook, for what it's worth.
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Cook has a 5.14 ERA lifetime against the Reds, and he is never going to be a guy with a low WHIP. Runners on base means trouble, especially for a guy that has been significantly more successful at home than on the road.
Orlando Cabrera, Jonny Gomes, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto all have BIG TIME success against Cook, and this Reds team has come out of the Break hot. The Rockies continue to be a total mess away from Coors Field, and they, like the Tigers, are becoming nearly an automatic fade away from home, and an automatic back when they're in front of the cheering fans.
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I like the Reds to score at least 4-5 runs in this game, this afternoon.
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Very quickly, Travis Wood is coming off a 9-inning losing effort against the Phillies, and I will admit, I bounced back and forth a tad with whether the youngster would have a nice follow-up, or struggle, and I think the situation is right for him to succeed. The Rockies hit much better off righties, and Wood is a southpaw; the Rockies hit much better at home, and this game is in Cincinnati, and the Reds starters in this series have been pitching well, so the Rockies aren't particularly confident, while Wood definitely is.
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Young pitchers tend to work in streaks much more than veterans, and I like Wood to battle his way through 6 innings of quality work.
Reds take today's game 6-3, or 6-4. Play on Cincinnati for our Sunday freebie!
Insider Angles
Arizona vs. San Diego
Kevin Correia of the San Diego Padres has cooled down considerably after a hot start to this season, while Edwin Jackson of the Arizona Diamondbacks has had two bad outings since no-hitting the Tampa Bay Rays. That said, both pitchers can show marked improvement here vs. teams that have dominated in the recent past.
Remember that Jackson threw 149 pitches in his no-hitter three starts back, so his setbacks in the last two starts before the All-Star break could have almost been expected even with his extended rest after the no-no. His arm strength should be just about back to normal by now, which is bad news for San Diego considering his performances against them this season.
Jackson allowed just three runs in his first start vs. the Padres here in 2010, and then in his second start against them, he tossed six scoreless innings while allowing just three hits right here in Petco Park. It helps that he is facing a San Diego offense that is batting just .244 vs. right-handed pitching in this pitcher’s paradise the Pads call home.
Correia has seen his ERA rise to 5.26 with his recent slump but facing the Diamondbacks may be the perfect remedy for him. This is because he has allowed two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts vs. Arizona, including his last start against them this year where he tossed 5.2 scoreless innings while allowing three hits with an impressive eight strikeouts. He is facing a Snakes lineup that is batting a paltry .226 vs. right-handers on the road for the season.
All things considered, the Under looks to hold some hidden value in this spot, especially if a starter or two is held out of the lineup in this Sunday afternoon affair following a Saturday night game.
Pick: Diamondbacks / Padres Under 7.5