O.C. Dooley
Nationals/Marlins OVER 9
In the initial pair of games in this series we saw two of the most dominant pitchers in the National League (Josh Johnson, Stephen Strasburg) have excellent outings which helped both contests stay below the total. In the entire month of July Florida’s struggling offense has actually produced “3 or less” runs at the plate 12 different times which is the main reason why the Marlins come into this clash having stayed below the posted total in 5 consecutive games. Despite the offensive struggles of both teams, the oddsmakers posted a rather high total for this contest and I for one am following their lead. Florida’s best hitter and reigning league batting champion Hanley Ramirez just happens to be 6-for-10 lifetime against Craig Stammen who is on the mound for Washington. Due to the excessive heat it is very unusual for Florida to play early afternoon games on a Sunday so I am expecting the baseball to fly. Washington slugger Adam Dunn can certainly make the baseball fly as his statistics in the past week (.481, 5 HR, 10 RBI) clearly indicate. Yesterday was a rare off game for Dunn who struck out three times and stranded 5 runners on base. Even though Washington did not cross the plate yesterday, they did compile ELEVEN HITS which tells me they are to break out. The Nationals attack this afternoon faces rookie Alejandro Sanabia who is making just his second major league starting assignment
Hollywood Sports
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Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
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The Royals send out Brian Bannister who is struggling with a 5.56 ERA and 1.50 ERA despite owning a 7-7 record. He has not fared well against the A's in his career given his career 5.02 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and .282 opponent's batting average. He will likely continue to struggle against an Oakland team that has won four of their last five games against right-handers. He faces off against Vincent Mazzaro who enjoys a 4-2 record along with a 3.81 ERA this season. This afternoon game on the road presents an good situation for Mazzaro. He boasts a 3.64 ERA on the road (versus a 4.00 ERA at home) while sporting a 3.23 ERA during the day (compared to his 4.50 ERA at night). Mazzaro is peaking right now as he has a sizzling 2.31 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP over his last four starts.
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Additionally, there is an underlying sabermetric statistic we find intriguing that favors Mazzaro over Bannister in this contest: Batting Average for line-drive Balls put Into Play (LD BABIP). Line-drives typically are the result of the batter winning the "hitter-versus-pitcher" battle since the typical goal for a batter is to produce line-drive contact with the baseball. Hitters also have the most control in placing their line-drives (as opposed to groundballs or flyballs) in areas where there is open space for base hits. The MLB average for line-drives that go for base hits is typically in the .715-.730 range. Bannister is allowing .786 of the line-drives hit off him to be base hits. We surmise that this statistic is indicative of the fact that Niemann is susceptible to losing this "hitter-versus-pitcher" battle from time-to-time. On the other hand, Mazzaro has a low .655 LD BABIP this season which is encouraging regarding his overall efforts this season. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starters Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like LD BABIP, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective regarding evaluating this pitcher's future.
John Ryan
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Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Twins will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 46-22 making 24.4 units since 2004. Play against all teams when the money line is +125 to -12 with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season facing an AL opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.600 to 1.700 on the season. CWS starter Garcia is in a terrible situation for this game. He is just 10-21 (-26.2 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. Twins have had strong success against strong bullpens similar in scope to what the CWS possess. Twins are 28-6 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 over the last 3 seasons. Take Minnesota.
Black Widow
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1* on Diamondbacks/Padres OVER 7.5
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We'll take the OVER in this game as the Diamondbacks and Padres continue to light up the scoreboard in this series. The first two games of this series have seen 13 combined runs each, with San Diego scoring 20 runs on their own against the worst pitching staff in baseball. Edwin Jackson is 6-7 with a 4.92 ERA for Arizona while Kevin Correia is 5-6 with a 5.26 ERA this year for San Diego. Those numbers alone indicate that the books have set the number well off the mark here. Arizona is 16-4 OVER (+11.9 Units) vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 3 seasons, and we're seeing an average of 11.7 runs/game in this spot. Take the OVER 7.5 runs here.