SPORTS ADVISORS
Philadelphia (50-38) at Florida (46-46)
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Unbeaten left-hander J.A. Happ (6-0, 2.90 ERA) takes the ball for the Phillies as they wrap up a weekend set at Turner Field against fellow southpaw Andrew Miller (3-4, 4.50) and the Marlins at Land Shark Stadium.
Florida took a 2-0, first-inning lead over Philadelphia on Saturday, but then the rains came and the game ended up getting washed out. That preserved the Phillies’ seven-game winning streak, and the defending champs are on additional runs of 11-1 overall and 15-6 in N.L. East play, and they continue to sport baseball’s best road record at 28-15.
Florida is still 10-3 in its last 13 home games but is on slides of 1-4 overall, 1-7 against winning teams and 2-5 against at home against winning squads. Also, The Phillies have owned this rivalry lately, going 8-2 in the last 10 clashes and 7-0 in the last seven contests in Florida.
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Happ has come out of the bullpen for 12 of his 22 appearances this season, but he’s been starting for the past two months. Last Sunday against Pittsburgh, he allowed just one run on four hits and two walks in seven innings of a 5-2 home victory. The 26-year-old is 3-0 with a sterling 1.81 ERA in 10 road appearances (five starts) this year, but he’s 0-0 with a whopping 9.82 ERA in three career appearances against Florida.
The Marlins have won two in a row and three of four behind Miller, but the 24-year-old got drilled in his most recent start July 9 at Arizona, giving up six runs on five hits and three walks in just 2 1/3 innings, though Florida went on to a 14-7 victory. Miller is 3-0 with a 3.25 ERA in nine appearances (seven starts) at home this season, but he’s 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA in eight career appearances (four starts) against Philadelphia.
Florida has lost Miller’s last four Sunday starts, but otherwise is on runs behind the lefty of 4-1 at home and 5-1 against winning teams at home.
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In this rivalry, the over is on a lengthy 54-24-3 run in Florida, but the under is 4-1 in the last five clashes overall. Also, for Philly, the under is on tears of 9-4 overall, 4-0 on Sunday, 4-0-1 against lefty starters, 5-1 in division play, 10-3-1 with Happ starting and 4-1-1 behind Happ on the road. For Florida, the under is on swings of 6-1-1 against southpaws and 8-3-1 against N.L. East foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Detroit (48-41) at N.Y. Yankees (53-37)
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The Yankees send out right-hander Joba Chamberlain (4-2, 4.25 ERA) as they go for a three-game sweep of the Tigers, who will counter with All-Star Edwin Jackson (7-4, 2.52) at Yankee Stadium.
New York rode CC Sabathia’s seven shutout innings to a 2-1 victory Saturday in a low-scoring battle against Detroit ace Justin Verlander, who also went seven innings and allowed both runs --- an Alex Rodriguez solo shot and a Miguel Cabrera RBI single in the seventh. The Yankees are on streaks of 15-5 overall, 24-6 against the A.L. Central, 11-2 against right-handed starters and 14-5 against teams with winning records.
Meanwhile, Detroit is just 4-12 in its last 16 roadies and 2-9 in its last 11 against the A.L. East, but the Tigers are on upticks of 7-4 against winning teams and 11-3 on Sunday.
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New York has won four of five against Detroit this season and is on further runs in this rivalry of 6-1 overall and 23-9 in the Bronx.
The Yankees are 9-3 in Chamberlain’s last 12 starts, though he got a no-decision in his most recent outing on July 10 at the Angels, with New York falling 10-6. Chamberlain lasted just 4 1/3 innings in that contest, allowing five runs (four earned) on nine hits and a walk. While the Yankees are 11-6 behind Chamberlain this season, the 23-year-old still hasn’t won a game at home, going 0-2 with a 5.36 ERA in nine starts.
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Chamberlain is 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA in five career appearances against Detroit, with the victory coming in his lone start against the Tigers – an 8-6 road win on April 29, in which he gave up just one run on three hits and three walks with six strikeouts in seven innings. New York is on runs behind Chamberlain of 6-1 at home, 5-1 on Sunday and 4-0 at home against winning teams.
The Tigers have won three of their last four backing Jackson, including a 5-1 home victory July 10 against Cleveland, with the 25-year-old yielding the one run (a solo homer) on four hits and two walks in seven innings. Jackson is 3-3 with a 2.33 ERA in 10 road starts this year. With Jackson throwing, the Tigers are on stretches of 8-3 on grass and 5-2 against winning teams.
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Jackson is 2-4 with a 5.11 ERA in 14 career appearances (10 starts) against New York. On April 28 in Detroit, he threw six shutout innings versus the Yanks, allowing just four hits and a walk before exiting, but the bullpen then gave up 10 seventh-inning runs in an 11-0 loss.
New York is on a bundle of “over” runs, including 8-3 overall, 8-3 against winning teams, 6-2 on grass, 4-0 behind Chamberlain and 7-2-1 with Chamberlain at Yankee Stadium. On the flip side, the under for Detroit is on streaks of 36-17 overall, 9-1 on the highway and 27-11 against righty starters. Also, with Jackson throwing, the under is on tears of 9-1 overall, 7-0 on the road and 6-1-1 against winning teams.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
DUNKEL
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San Francisco at Pittsburgh
The Pirates look to build on their 5-1 record in Zach Duke's last 6 starts. Pittsburgh is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+115).
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Game 951-952: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 16.2601; Florida (Miller) 15.738
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-135); Under
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Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.320; Cincinnati (Cueto) 13.353
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-125); Under
Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Hart) 15.548; Washington (Mock) 14.155
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-135); Under
Game 957-958: San Francisco at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 14.319; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.789
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+115); Over
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Game 959-960: Arizona at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Petit) 15.508; St. Louis (Pineiro) 16.592
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 961-962: Colorado at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Marquis) 14.479; San Diego (Latos) 15.498
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+140); Under
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Game 963-964: Houston at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Ortiz) 15.774; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.101
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+170); Under
Game 965-966: NY Mets at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Nieve) 15.452; Atlanta (Vazquez) 14.244
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-240); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+220); Under
Game 967-968: Seattle at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Bedard) 14.904; Cleveland (Laffey) 15.114
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+105); Under
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Game 969-970: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 16.615; Toronto (Halladay) 15.584
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+120); Under
Game 971-972: Baltimore at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.784; White Sox (Contreras) 15.176
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-145); Over
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Game 973-974: Detroit at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Jackson) 15.023; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 15.677
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Under
Game 975-976: Tampa Bay at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 13.890; Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.871
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+145); Over
Game 977-978: LA Angels at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 15.866; Oakland (Anderson) 16.736
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+115); Over
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Game 979-980: Minnesota at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 15.334; Texas (Holland) 16.178
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-125); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+115); Under
WNBA
San Antonio at Chicago
The Silver Stars look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games against the Western Conference. San Antonio is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Silver Stars favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+2).
Game 651-652: Indiana at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 116.893; Connecticut 111.953
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 5; 147 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 1 1/2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+1 1/2); Over
Game 653-654: Atlanta at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 110.955; New York 110.379
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 139 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 3; 148
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Under
Game 655-656: San Antonio at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 108.458; Chicago 104.506
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 4; 141 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+2); Under
Game 657-658: Minnesota at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 107.091; Seattle 110.540
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 3 1/2; 139
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 4 1/2; 147
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4 1/2); Under
Marc Lawrence
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Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
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The Indians and Mariners wrap up their four-games series in Cleveland Sunday afternoon when Erik Bedard takes on Aaron Laffey at Progressive Field. Bedard takes the mound knowing he's 5-2 with a 3.51 ERA in his career team starts against the Tribe, including 4-0 his last four efforts. On the flip side, Laffey is in rocky KW form with 11 walks and 3 strikeouts in his last three starts. He's also 1-4 with a 7.67 ERA in his career team starts against the M's. Back the better team with the better arm here today.
Big Al McMordie
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Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Colorado Rockies
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Rockies starter Jason Marquis made his first All-Star squad although the 10-year veteran righthander did not pitch in the game and, despite that fact, the Rockies did not move his start up from this scheduled Sunday afternoon game in San Diego. Perhaps one day, 21-year-old Mat Latos will be an All-Star, but right now the San Diego rookie righthander is just focused on his first Major League start this afternoon. Matos has been rocketing up the Minors in 2009, going 3-0 with a 0.36 ERA at single-A ball before being promoted and going 5-1 with a 1.91 ERA at AA San Antonio. But although Matos gets to make his debut in a very pitcher-friendly park, this is not an easy assignment as Colorado has dominated the Padres lately. In the last 12 meetings between these two teams heading into Saturday, the Rockies have taken nine of those contests, and the team that Matos will be making his first-ever MLB start for has been horrible lately, going 8-23 in its last 31 games overall and it has the second-worst record in the National League behind only the Washington Nationals. The Rockies have actually won more games on the road than they have at hitter-friendly Coors field. Take the Rockies.
Cajun Sports
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Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Seattle Mariners
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The Mariners will come away with an all important series victory if they can win on Sunday. They lost game one of this series on Thursday 4 to 1 but have bounced back in games two and three with victories and should get a win today behind Erik Bedard. Seattle is 48-43 W/L on the season while Cleveland has struggled with a record of 36-56 W/L on the year. Seattle is 20-11 W/L (+8.2) when playing against a team with a win percentage of 38 to 46 percent and Cleveland is 19-30 W/L (-11.8) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. A check of the database shows the Mariners are 5-0 W/L their last 5 as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 10-3 W/L their last 13 as a favorite in this price range overall, 6-1 W/L in Bedard’s last 7 starts versus a team with a losing record and 4-1 W/L his last 5 road starts. The news is not that good for Indians supporters because they are 4-11 W/L their last 15 at home, 7-19 W/L versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 3-10 W/L their last 13 as an underdog and 0-7 W/L their last 7 when Laffey gets the start and is installed as an underdog. Bedard is 5-2 W/L on the season with an ERA of 2.63 including a perfect 3-0 W/L on the road with an ERA of 2.72. We will lay the short price here with the visitor as the Mariners claim a series win over the host Cleveland Indians on Sunday afternoon.
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Graded Selection: 2* Seattle Mariners 3 Cleveland Indians 1
Craig Trapp
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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TB has been playing great baseball over the past month and looks to close out KC on Sunday with another sweep. So far this season TB has owned KC going 5-0 verse the struggling Royals. The only problem for TB today might be there starter Garza who is 0-4 verse KC lifetime. Garza is well rested and when he gets more than 6 days rest he is 5-0 lifetime. On the other side KC turns to starting pitcher Hochevar who has won his last 2 starts. The only bad news for them is in his last two starts he gave up 9 runs in 12 innings and only received a win because the offense carried him. Watch out today as TB is very explosive at the plate and will score early and often. This one might get out of hand before the 5th inning. SCORE: TB 7 - KC 4
Alex Smart
Pittsburgh Pirates
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The San Francisco Giants in the recent past have had a hard time figuring out the Pittsburgh Pirates, as is evident by losing 18 of the L/23 overall meetings in this series, including 5 straight at PNC Park( 2 this past weekend).
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Even the usually stable Matt Cain(10-2, 2.38 ERA) is just 0-2 along with a humbling 5.63 ERA in career starts vs the Pirates. He may also exhibit a little rust, after a extending lay off, that has seen him not pitch since July 10, because of a bruised arm. It must be noted Cains team is just 1-6 in his L/7 starts after being off for more than 7 days. Meanwhile, Zack Duke (8-8,3.29 ERA) the Pirates starting hurler in this spot, owns a 2-0 record along with a stingy 1.65 ERA in his L/3 starts vs the Giants. The left hander has pitched his best at home this season where he has garnered a 6-3 record along with a tight 2.77 ERA in nine home starts, and once again looks like a solid choice on a value line.
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I know these teams have played at the opposite end of the performance spectrum for much of this season, but considering the recent history in this series, it will not be a hard decision to back the Pirates to come away with a win in this spot.
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Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates
Red Dog Sports
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Tampa Bay at Kansas City
Play: Under 9.5
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Matt Garza is starting for the Rays and has good stuff. Tampa has 9 unders and 3 overs in their last 12 on the road while Kansas City has 14 unders, 5 overs and 2 pushes in their last 21 overall. Play the under on Sunday afternoon in this matchup.
Nelly
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Philadelphia - over Florida
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J.A. Happ has now made five straight quality starts and he will be tough to phase out of the rotation even with the Pedro Martinez signing. Happ has kept his walks under control with just 32 in 87 innings of work and although his 6-0 record may be a bit misleading it is warranted with his 2.90 ERA and solid run support. Like the Phillies as a team, Happ has been at his best on the road with a 1.81 ERA and a minuscule 0.90 WHIP. Andrew Miller has had an up-and-down season and he has not posted the strikeout numbers expected from such a highly regarded prospect. Miller has just 55 strikeouts in 74 innings and he has averaged barely over five innings per start. Look for the Phillies to continue to dominate the Marlins today.
Rob Vinciletti
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LAA Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics
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Oakland is a tremendous 10-0 as a home dog off a 5+ run loss.In today's matchup they have Lefty B.Anderson on the mound.Over his last 3 starts he has been nearly unhittable allowing just 1 run in 18+ innings for a 0.49 era.The Angles have old reliable on the mound today in J.Lackey.Digging deeper into the numbers we see that Lackeys road numbers are just about equal to Andersons home numbers this year.However Lackey hasn't pitched nearly as well recently.Oakland also fits a nice home dog system that plays on certain home dogs off a loss of 5+ runs having scored 5 or more runs.This system is 3 games over .500 for the Home dog over the last few years.On the Sunday late phone card the lead play is the AL Game of the Month.Backed with a 94% system that wins by over 3 r.p.g. and an incredible 21-1 team angle this game will cash just as easy as Saturdays double system winner on the Mets.For the free play lets go with the Oakland A/S.
JIM FEIST
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LOS ANGELES ANGELS / OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Take LOS ANGELES ANGELS
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It's the penthouse club against the outhouse club. Or, first place Angels versus last place Oakland. The Angels have have won seven of the last 10 games, including Saturday's contest over the A's, 11-6. The Angels are third in the AL in runs/game (5.34) and first in batting average (.284). Meanwhile, Oakland is dead last in batting average (.246) and third from last in runs/game (4.20). The starting pitching is quite even here today. Brett Anderson for the A's has been red-hot, though overall he's only 5-7 with a 4.64 era. John Lackey has had a fair season also, posting a 4-4 record and 4.93 era. What really intrigues us here is Lackey's career against the A's. He's 14-4 lifetime versus Oakland with a 2.80 era. Laying about a quarter on the road looks like good value with the mismatch in these clubs. Take the Angels.
Hentai Sports
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Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians
Prediction : Seattle Mariners
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The Mariners will come away with an all important series victory if they can win on Sunday. They lost game one of this series on Thursday 4 to 1 but have bounced back in games two and three with victories and should get a win today behind Erik Bedard. Seattle is 48-43 W/L on the season while Cleveland has struggled with a record of 36-56 W/L on the year. Seattle is 20-11 W/L (+8.2) when playing against a team with a win percentage of 38 to 46 percent and Cleveland is 19-30 W/L (-11.8) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. A check of the database shows the Mariners are 5-0 W/L their last 5 as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 10-3 W/L their last 13 as a favorite in this price range overall, 6-1 W/L in Bedard’s last 7 starts versus a team with a losing record and 4-1 W/L his last 5 road starts. The news is not that good for Indians supporters because they are 4-11 W/L their last 15 at home, 7-19 W/L versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 3-10 W/L their last 13 as an underdog and 0-7 W/L their last 7 when Laffey gets the start and is installed as an underdog. Bedard is 5-2 W/L on the season with an ERA of 2.63 including a perfect 3-0 W/L on the road with an ERA of 2.72. We will lay the short price here with the visitor as the Mariners claim a series win over the host Cleveland Indians on Sunday afternoon.
IndianCowboy
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Take Under 8.5 between the LA Angels @ Oakland A's
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John Lackey's lifetime numbers against Oakland is impressive. He is 14-4 against the A's with a 2.80 era in 26 career starts against them. In Oakland, John is 7-3 with a 3.15era. Anderson has been rolling lately as in over 18 innings of work, he has given up just 1 earned run and these come off starts at Fenway and at Tampa Bay. Anderson has been very sharp of late and I expect him to be solid on Sunday afternoon as he takes on the perennial Angels ace in Lackey. I look for this game to likely dip under. The Under is 12-3-3 in Lackey's last 18 road starts against a team with a losing record and the Under is 13-3 when the As face a right hander lately.
Jeff Benton
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Tough loss Saturday with the Tigers, who fell 2-1 at the Yankees. For Sunday, I’m backing the Braves on the run-line (-1½ runs) against the freefalling Mets in Sunday Night Baseball action from Atlanta.
For starters, New York is a complete mess. Despite getting a 5-1 win Saturday behind a gem from Johan Santana, the Mets are still just 6-13 in theirlast 19 games, including 3-7 on the road. The main reason for New York's woes? It simply can’t score. During their 6-13 slump, the Mets have been shut out five times; they’ve scored one run on three occasions; they’ve tallied two runs three times; and they’ve produced three runs twice. That means New York has scored three runs or fewer in 13 of its last 19 games.
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Take it a step further: Last night's five-run "outburst" was just the 10th time since June 14, a span of 29 contests, that New York has scored more than four runs in a game. Tonight, the Mets face one of this year’s most underrated pitchers in Javy Vazquez. The veteran right-hander ranks in the top 10 in the National League in ERA (2.95 ERA, 8th), WHIP (1.05, 4th) and
strikeouts (136, 2nd), and he’s given up two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight outings. So why is Vazquez just 6-7 and why have the Braves won just eight of his 18 starts? Because Atlanta’s offense barely averages four runs per game when Vazquez pitches, including just 3.2 runs per game at home.
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So what makes me think the Braves will score enough tonight to not only win a game for Vazquez, but cover the run line? Two reasons: First, Mets starter Fernando Nieve, who won his first two games in impressive fashion after being called up from Triple-A, has come crashing back to earth. He’s 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts, giving up 10 runs, 25 hits and nine walks in 15 innings, losing by scores of 10-6 (at Milwaukee), 4-1 (at Philadelphia) and 3-0 (at home vs. Cincinnati).
Secondly, prior to getting shut down by Santana last night, Atlanta had averaged 5.9 runs over its previous six games (scoring four or more in each contest) and it has still taken four of the last six games from the Mets, scoring 8, 8, 5 and 11 runs in the four victories. Finally, four of the Braves’ last six wins behind Vasquez have been by multiple runs. Throw in the fact that Atlanta’s bullpen has been outstanding of late, and I’ll confidently lay the 1½ runs and look for the Mets’ pathetic offense to continue to struggle.
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4♦ ATLANTA
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take the Mets at this monster price.
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Yes the Mets still stink despite the win yesterday and easily could get drilled today as they are just flat out too hurt to really compete with the Braves but call me a sucker because I am just sucked into this gargantuan number.
Javier Vazquez has been great this season, his first as a member of the Braves, but the righty is banged up and possibly could be a little vulnerable today than normal. Plus Vazquez has been striking out a ton of batters this season making his pitch counts awfully high which inturn gets him out of the game earlier than Bobby Cox would probably like.
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Fernando Nieve is mediocre at the very best but he has had a nice little run here with the Mets and could at least hold his own. I do realize it's going to be very tough to score runs as the Mets have David Wright and not much more but at this price it's just worth that risk.
In this fourth game of this series and with it being a Sunday I can see a day off for a guy like Brian McCann therefore weakening the Atlanta lineup a tad.
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I'm not fooled by Saturday's victory and do not think things have started afresh here for Jerry Manuel's crew but with Wright and K-Rod always lurking in the pen with a little luck the Mets could make it two in a row. It's unlikely but it is possible and at this price against a beat up Vazquez I'll make a small play on the visitors from New York.
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1♦ Mets