Bobby Maxwell
Colorado at SAN DIEGO +130
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Today's FREE play is from San Diego as I go out and grab the plus-money Padres hosting the Rockies.
Interesting move here by the Padres, going with a rookie pitcher today that started this season in Single-A. I like the move and I'm taking the plus-money with the kid and playing San Diego.
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The Padres got the 3-1 victory Saturday night and that momentum, added with the excitement of seeing right-hander Mat Latos make his major league debut will carry this team to the win. A lot has been written and said about Latos and he gets his chance in the spotlight here against the Rockies and veteran hurler Jason Marquis (11-6, 3.65 ERA).
Latos was an 11th round pick in 2006 and between Double-A San Antonio and Single-A Fort Wayne he combined to go 8-1 with a 1.38 ERA. In San Antonio he was 5-1 with a 1.91 ERA. Latos is a big boy at 6-foot-6 and 225 pounds and he is going to get his shot. Expect him to be nervous early and when he gets through a nervous first couple innings, he'll settle in and you'll see him control the game for about six innings before handing it over to the bullpen.
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Colorado is just 2-7 in its last nine games as a road favorite and they are going to be off when they see the big, young right-hander coming at them.
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I love this situation for the Padres. Grab the plus-money and play San Diego.
2♦ SAN DIEGO
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Mets at ATLANTA
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We are backing the Braves on the RUN LINE this Sunday as they take on the hobbling Mets once again.
Seems the only time the Mets have a chance to win these days is when Johan Santana starts, and that start happened to come yesterday in New York's 5-1 win.
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Expect a similar final today, but expect it to be Atlanta with the 5-spot. Mets starter Fernando Nieve has hit a major bump in the road, as he is now 0-3 the last 3 starts he has made, and his ERA stands at 5.40.
His counterpart Javier Vazquez continues to be solid, splitting his last his last 3 starts while keeping his ERA below 2 over his last 20 frames of work.
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The last 16 Mets losses have all come by 2 runs or more, so to think this game is going to end in a one run decision just isn't reality.
RUN LINE play on Atlanta to conclude this 4-game set with the easy win.
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2♦ ATLANTA -1 1/2
Karl Garrett
Seattle -120 at CLEVELAND
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G-Man on a 5-1 comp play run the last 6 days, and a 12-5 run the last 17 days for free.
For Sunday, have to like the Mariners to handle the stuggling Indians once again.
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Seattle has won the last pair of this long four game weekend series, as they have now won 5 of their last 7 overall. The Mariners are also on a money-making 20-6 roll their last 26 when installed as the favorite.
Cleveland is another story altogether, as this team has talent, but it certainly appears they have no heart, as the Indians have dropped 20 of their last 27 overall.
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Aaron Laffey has been hit hard the last 3 times he has climbed to the mound, as the southpaw has allowed 18 hits in his last 15-plus innings of work, and his ERA stands at 6.32.
That won't cut it against Erik Bedard who may only own a 5-2 mark this year, but has kept his ERA at a lowly 2.63.
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G-Man rolling strong with the M's over the Tribe this afternoon.
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4♦ SEATTLE
Dominic Fazzini
Detroit +125 at N.Y. YANKEES
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The Angels' win Saturday gave me three victories in my last four complimentary selections. I'm looking at the underdog Tigers to keep it going for me today!
Joba Chamberlain (4-2, 4.25 ERA) has not enjoyed pitching at the new Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees right-hander is 0-2 with a 5.36 ERA in nine home starts, and allowed five runs (four earned) and nine hits in 4 1/3 innings there against the Angels on July 10 in his last outing.
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Meanwhile, Tigers starter Edwin Jackson (7-4, 2.52) has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season, and tossed a perfect inning on four pitches Tuesday in the All-Star Game.
The only reason Jackson, who has a 2.33 ERA in 10 road starts, doesn’t have a better record this year is because Detroit has provided him with just 3.55 runs per game in his outings this season.
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Chamberlain’s ERA has been steadily climbing over the past 1 ½ months. Jackson, on the other hand, has been consistent all season, and he tossed six scoreless innings against New York on April 28 at Comerica Park.
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Detroit has great value as an underdog today, especially with someone as reliable as Jackson on the mound. Go with the Tigers to salvage the finale of this three-game series.
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2♦ DETROIT
Chris Jordan
Angels at OAKLAND +110
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All about Brett Anderson in this one, as he’s been pitching well and the Athletics have been rallying around him to win the games he’s keeping them in. Oakland has won his last four starts and are also on a 4-1 run when he’s the installed pup. But the betting numbers aren’t what I’m looking at specifically right now, as they’re conflicting and could easily back the Halos.
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What I’ve been impressed with is how Anderson has thrown 13 straight scoreless innings, including four frames against Tampa Bay last Sunday. He left that game early because of back stiffness, but with so much time off to rest – thanks to the All-Star Break – I suspect he’ll be pumped for this division rival.
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The southpaw is 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his last four outings, and will come in with revenge on the brain after suffering a 5-2 loss to the Angels on May 4. Though we’re not listing John Lackey, when he toes the slab the Angels are on losing slides of 1-4 against the American League West and 1-8 following a quality start in his last appearance. Let’s take a shot with the underdog here.
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2♦ ATHLETICS
The Spread
Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians, 1:05PM ET
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home
Pick: Cleveland
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, 1:07PM ET
Boston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
Toronto is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Boston
Pick: Toronto
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, 1:10PM ET
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Milwaukee is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee
John Ryan
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Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Yankees as they host the Detroit Tigers set to start at 2:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 74-26 making 33.2 units since 2003. Play against AL road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season facing an opponent starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings. Detroit is just 22-35 (-19.0 Units) against the money line versus a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons; 20-45 (-21.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Detroit start Jackson ranks third in the AL with a 2.52 ERA, but the problem for this game is that Detroit has a very weak and inconsistent offense. They are batting just 246 and scoring 4.1 RPG in road games and just 255 with a 314 OBP against RH starters. Yankees offense is strong scoring 5.7 RPG with 80 home runs in home games. They have also hit 90 of their 133 total home runs against RH starters. Chamberlain has not been at his best recently, but the bullpen is strong and will carry the load if needed. Based on the Ai S projections Jackson is going to have a rough day. He has allowed a 407 BA (11 for 27) to Jeter and 368 (7 for 19 with 3 doubles and 2 home runs) to A-Rod. When Jackson falls behind in the count he is very ordinary. Hitters are batting 323 on his fastball and you can bet the Yankees will work to get a fastball count early in this game. Take the Yankees.
Jimmy The Moose
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San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Under
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The Giants have played the under in 4 of their last 5 games overall. Their last 4 road games have played under the total. In their last 24 road games vs. a left-handed starter the under is a profitable 17-5-2. The under is 4-1 in Cain's last 5 starts overall as well as his last 5 road starts. The under is 23-8-2 in Pittsburgh's last 33 overall. The Pirates have played the under in 9 of their last 10 home games. In their last 11 games as a home dog the under is 10-1. The under is 4-1 in Duke's last 5 starts. In his last 7 vs. a team with a winning record the under is 6-1. Play the under.
Matt Fargo
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Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
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The Angels are starting to make a move and push ahead in the American League West. They have taken two of the first three games in this series with Oakland and look for the series win today before a trip to Kansas City to start the week. The A?s are now 13 games under .500 and playing at home has meant little as they are now just 3-8 in their last 11 games at home. John Lackey is coming off a quality start in his last game before the break against the Yankees and he looks to carry that into the second half and turn around what has been a slow start to the season. Facing the A?s is a good way to start as he has had success throughout his career against Oakland. He is 14-4 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 26 career starts and this includes a 7-3 record in 14 starts in Oakland. In five daytime starts this season he has posted a 2.79 ERA compared to a 6.34 ERA in seven nighttime outings. Brett Anderson has been up and down for Oakland and while he has been pitching good of late, the time off could actually hurt his momentum. He has a 4.64 ERA on the year and only five of his 16 starts have been quality performances. One of his rough outings came earlier in the season against the Angels where he allowed five runs on nine hits in just 4.2 innings. The Angels are hitting .304 in their last 10 games against left-handed pitching and they are 5-0 in their last five games against left-handed starters. Also, the Angels are 13-3 in Lackey?s last 16 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
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3* Los Angeles Angels
MTi Sports
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Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
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The Rays are 0-7 when Matt Garza starts as a favorite after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start. The Royals are 17-10 as a 140+ dog when they are seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they held the lead. The Royals are worth an investment at this price.
Jake Timlin
Go with the Yankees minus a cheaper than expect price tag.
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No doubt tough not to back the Yankees today as they go for the sweep minus low price tag. Paving the way for the sweep will be Chamberlain who will look for his first home win of the season and thanks to New York winning 23 of the last 32 series meeting in New York the righty will get the win.
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Meanwhile, for the Tigers they counter with Jackson who was solid in his only start this year against the Yankees throwing six scoreless innings only to see his team loss 11-0 after Tigers bull pen fell apart.
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Well look for another close game early today as I expect for weight of the Yankees offense to get to Jackson and the Tigers bullpen late paving the way to an easy win.
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2♦ New York Yankees
Drew Gordon
Colorado -145 at SAN DIEGO
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Now on a 26-17 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Colorado/San Diego match up...
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Big-time mismatch in more ways than one today at Petco, as the Rockies look to take the series in today's finale. Couldn't ask for a better match up, as the Rockies stud sinkerballer, Jason Marquis, gets matched up against a soft-hitting Padres club. Friars are batting just .216 against righties at Petco on the season, and I don't see much room for improvement against Marquis in this one! You remember his last start against the Padres, don't you? He tossed 8 scoreless innings, allowing 6 hits along the way in an excellent effort May 29th!
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What's worse is Marquis is being opposed by youngster Matt Latos, who makes his Major League debut in this contest. Word out of Double-A San Antonio is Latos has the stuff, but as is the case with most young hurlers, you simply do not know if that's going to translate at the next level. Also, the fact he has to face a potent Rockies lineup this afternoon is no small task, especially considering they've crushed righties of late, batting .289 against them over their last 10 games!
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Finally, besides the tremendous pitching mismatch, and the obvious edge at the plate for the Rockies, there's a couple trends to consider: A. Colorado has owned San Diego, going 9-4 over their last 13 meetings. B. The Rockies have been money on the road of late, going 15-5 over their last 20 roadies. And C. Padres have been a terrible bet following a win, going just 2-12 in their last 14 games following a W. In the end, the play here rests squarely on the Rockies!
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Take Colorado behind Marquis over San Diego and Latos in this MLB match up.
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2♦ COLORADO
Michael Cannon
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Tampa Bay at KANSAS CITY +140
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I’m 3-1 with my last four free plays.
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I’m going to take a shot with the Royals as the home dog over the Rays.
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Kansas City obviously isn’t in the same class as the Rays, but I like the job Luke Hochevar has done for the Royals recently.
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The right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.81 ERA in his last four starts.
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That’s better than what the Rays Matt Garza has done recently and in his career against Kansas City.
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Garza is 1-2 with a 4.42 ERA in his last three starts and is at 6-7 on the year. The right-hander is 0-4 with a 4.02 ERA in five lifetime games against the Royals.
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I don’t care who you are, if you can’t beat the Royals at least one time in your career over five starts that’s pretty pathetic.
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Take the Royals as they grab the home win.
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2♦ KANSAS CITY
Nick Parsons
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Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
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After stumbling into the All-Star break, the New York Yankees have looked rejuvenated in winning their first two games since the Midsummer Classic. Joba Chamberlain hopes to provide the next solid pitching performance for the Yankees, who try to sweep the AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers for the first time in four years Sunday. Chamberlain is likely also a bit frustrated that he’s still seeking his first win at the new Yankee Stadium. After nine home starts, he is 0-2 with a 5.36 ERA. He had little trouble pitching at Detroit on April 29, allowing one run and three hits with six strikeouts in seven innings of an 8-6 win. Edwin Jackson’s ERA - the third-best in the AL - helped him earn his first All-Star selection, but his 3.55 run support average - one of the worst in the majors - has prevented him from being among the league leaders in wins. The Tigers have really struggled to score away from Detroit lately, plating three runs or fewer in 14 of their last 19 road games. They’ve won just six of those contests. Look for the YANKS to improve to 5-2 (+2.3 units) as a home favorite of -125 to -150.
GINA
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Colorado's Jason Marquis (11-6, 3.65 ERA) is 2-1 with a 1.17 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 5-3 with a 3.38 ERA in nine career starts versus San Diego.
San Diego's Matt Latos (0-0, 0.00) The right-hander makes his major league debut.
The struggling Padres have dropped 13 of their last 17 games, including 6 of its last 8 at Petco Park. Go with the Rockies to easily outscore the lowest scoring team in the league. Colorado is 7-3 in their last 10 games and has played sound away from home, 15-5 in its last 20 road games. They have won nine of the last thirteen contests versus the Padres and won eight of Marquis' last eleven starts, five of his last seven on the road.
Colorado Rockies -140