Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 21

Bruce Marshall

LA Dodgers vs. Washington
Pick: Washington

The Dodgers have scraped out wins the past two nights in D.C. and have their ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound this afternoon. Sounds good for Don Mattingly's crew, right? But the offense has slowed to a crawl, scoring just 8 runs over the last five games, leaving Kershaw and other LA pitchers no margin for error, especially as Cuban phenom Yasiel Puig (0 for 9 and 5 Ks since the All-Star break) appears to be slumping. Despite Kershaw's prowess, his record is a modest 8-6, and doesn't comapre to the home mark of Washington starter Jordan Zimmerman, who is 9-0 with a 1.75 ERA this season at Nats Park. Kershaw is not unbeatable, and the Dodger offense is not scoring enough runs to warrant favortism (however slight) on the road vs. Zimmerman.

Jesse Schule

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Pittsburgh +1.5

The Pirates have lost back to back games in Cincinnati, and they now sit two games back of division leaders St. Louis. They look to avoid a sweep in the series finale today, and with a favorable matchup on the mound, they might be in a good spot to earn a victory.

Jeff Locke will return to the rotation after sitting out with a sore back since July 8. Locke (8-2, 2.15 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on just three hits over seven innings in a 2-1 loss to Oakland his last time out. He ranks second amongst National League pitchers with only Clayton Kershaw having a lower ERA.

The Reds haven't been able to solve him in two previous meetings, as he's 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA in those games. One of those games was at Great American Ballpark, and he tossed seven scoreless innings not factoring in the decision.

Homer Bailey will get the nod for the home team, and he's lost consecutive starts since recording a no-hitter on July 2. In fact the Reds have lost five of his last six starts, with the only exception being the no-hitter.

Bailey (5-8, 3.82 ERA) has allowed eight runs on 20 hits over just 11 2/3 innings while losing to the Braves and the Brewers in his last two outings. He allowed a pair of runs on six hits over six innings in a 5-3 Reds loss in his only previous start versus the Pirates this season.

Another factor working against Bailey today is that he's been awful in the light of day, with a record of 1-5, 5.13 ERA in nine starts this year in afternoon games.

With the Pirates a significant underdog here, I am going to play them on the RL.

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

The Tribe wraps up a three-game series with the Twins at Target Field when they send All-Star hurler Justin Masterson to the hill against Scott Diamond. In doing so the Indians know Masterson is 4-2 in day starts and 5-3 against the A. L. Central this season. On the flip side, Diamond is 1-6 with a 6.57 ERA in his last seven team starts and 2-6 in his career team starts during July. Back the better team and the better arm here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Hollywood Sports

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Saskatchewan Roughriders
Prediction: Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Saskatchewan (3-0) has raced out to a perfect start after the first three weeks of the Canadian Football League season after their big 39-28 win at Toronto last week against the defending Grey Cup champions. But this team now faces a possible letdown situation returning home to face a non-divisional rival who has only won game this season. The Roughriders have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. To compound matters, their star quarterback Darian Durant is listed as questionable with a right foot injury for this contest. Even if he plays in this contest, his effectiveness in the pocket may be impacted by this nagging injury. Hamilton (1-2) looks to build off their first win of the season last week with their 25-20 victory versus Winnipeg. The Tiger-Cats have exceeded point spread expectations in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Hamilton has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played in the ninth of July. The T-Cats defense recorded an impressive six sacks last week while holding the Blue Bombers to just 330 yards of offense -- and that is a very encouraging sign moving forward this week against a less than 100% Durant. Take Hamilton plus the points in this one.

Rocketman

Detroit @ Kansas City
Play: Kansas City +102

The Detroit Tigers travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals on Sunday afternoon. Detroit is 24-39 last 3 years and 2-9 this year on the road when the line is -100 to -125. Doug Fister gets the start for Detroit where he has struggled lately with a 7.00 ERA his last 3 starts. Fister is 1-4 with a 4.10 ERA in all his starts vs Kansas City in his career. James Shields gets the start for the Royals here today where he is 5-1 with a 3.53 ERA in all his starts vs Detroit in his career. Looking for the home team to get the win here today. We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City today!

Jimmy Boyd

Orioles vs. Rangers
Play: Over 9½

I expect both teams in this matchup to score a lot of runs and send this game over the total early on. Chris Tillman has been struggling for the Orioles recently. In his last three starts he has posted a 5.19 ERA and given up 23 hits and 5 walks in just 17.3 innings pitched. He is facing a Rangers team that has a .267 batting average at home this year.

Baltimore has had no problem scoring runs themselves. Over their past seven games they have scored an average of 4.9 runs per game. Martin Perez does not have a lot of experience this year starting in just six games. His ERA is a bit deceiving given his limited playing time so far. Over his last three starts he has been trending in the wrong direction, allowing four home runs and posting a 1.412 WHIP in those 17 innings pitched.

Alex Smart

Los Angeles Dodgers -111

Dodgers starter today vs the Washington Nationals Clayton Kershaw has won three of his past four starts and leads the Majors with a very stingy 1.98 ERA with opponents BA clicking in at a lowly (.188) . Zimmermann the Nats starting hurler for this tilt had an MRI exam taken on Friday, and it revealed that he had an issue with some soft tissues in the neck, according to manager Davey Johnson. Zimmermann last pitched on Thursday (6 1/3) innings. He may not be 100% and this alone adds credence to Kershaw and the Dodgers getting the nod in this spot. I know Zimmerman hasn't lost a game at home since May 17, 2012, a span of 22 starts. He may not take the loss today but Im betting his team does. Also caveat emptor to all who ride this positive wave for Zimmerman. Remember all good and bad runs eventually come to an end. It must also be noted that the Nationals are second lowest scoring team in the league at 3.7 runs per game, and with Kershaw on the hill will have a hard time getting men across the plate.

Jeffrey Brandes

Seattle Mariners -169

Pitchers:
SEATTLE MARINERS: FELIX HERNANDEZ (R) ERA: 2.53 W/L: 10-4
HOUSTON ASTROS: JORDAN LYLES (R) ERA: 4.02 W/L: 4-3

FELIX HERNANDEZ is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA over his last nine starts and hasn't lost since May 25 in Texas. He shut out the Astros on five hits in six innings in a 7-0 win their only meeting this season on April 22 in Minute Maid Park. In his last 3 starts he's 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA. In that
span of 22.0 innings he has 17 strike outs.

JORDAN LYLES has surrendered 18 runs (15 earned) over his last four starts. In his last 3 starts he is 0-1 with a 5.26 ERA. He has just 6 K's in 17 innings in those 3 games.

Justin Bay

Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Atlanta Braves -128

With Minor on the mound for the Braves, look for some good run support. Minor has held White Sox hitters to a sub .200 batting average in his career. Minor has pitched very well on the road, only letting up more than 2 runs in one game out of 4 on the road.

Quintana is throwing for the White Sox, look for him to have a bit of trouble getting through the Braves lineup. With the Braves lineup mostly all righties, they should be able to put up some tough at bats 1-9. Quintana has struggled at home this season and this start will be no different.

Phillies vs. Mets
Play: Under 6½

Look for this game to be a very quick one with the two aces on the mound. Cliff Lee has been amazing this year with pinpoint accuracy but no run support. Harvey should be able to have his way with the Phillies, a team that can not hit righties or lefties. The mets will not be able to do anything against Cliff Lee, they have trouble scoring against anybody.

Jim Feist

Yankees at Red Sox
Pick: Under

The under is 9-2-1 in the Red Sox last 12 against the division rival AL East and a weak NY offense is in town. At least the Yankees have ace C.C. Sabathia. He has a 3.60 ERA his last three starts with 20 Ks in 20 innings, and for the season he's walked only 30 in 137 innings. The under is 23-10-3 in the Yankees last 36 road gamees and 36-15-3 under the total against a team with a winning record. The under is 10-3-2 in the Yankees last 15 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and both teams have above average bullpens.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are hot right now and took another last night from Washington in extra innings as the Nationals continue to struggle at the plate. The Dodgers based on that win last night fit a solid system that is cashing over 80% and plays on road favorites that are off a road win and scored 4 or less runs on 10 or more hits, vs an opponent off a home loss that scored 2 or less runs and had 10 or more hits in the loss. The Pitching match is maybe the best of the day with Kershaw for LA and Zimmerman for Washington. Both have solid numbers. However the Dodgers are the better hitting teams and Kershaw has been lights out on the road in July tossing 26 innings and allowing 1 run in 3 wins. The Nationals are 1-6 as a home dog off a home loss where they scored 2 or less runs and LA has won 4 of the last 5 as a road favorite from -100 to -125 and have won 11 of 15 this month. Look for The Dodgers to take this one.

Art Aronson

Hamilton vs. Saskatchewan
Pick: Saskatchewan

Whether "straight up" or "against the spread", to say the Roughriders have dominated this series would be an understatement 15-3 SU in their last 18 overall and a near-perfect 11-1 SU their last 12 in front of the home town crowd. Saskatchewan is also 10-2 ATS its last 12 at home in this series and 18-6 ATS in the last 24 overall. The Roughriders are 3-0 to start the year, while the Tiger-Cats are just 1-2. Saskatchewan annihilated the defending champions 39-28 last week, while Hamilton finally got off the schneid, holding on for a 25-20 home victory over the Blue Bombers. The Tiger-Cats have the firepower offensively to hang with the Roughriders, but clearly their defensive unit is going to be in for a long night having already given up a ghastly 89 total points to the opposition over the first three weeks (conversely, the high-flying Roughriders have given up 67; certainly not elite, but definitely much better than Hamilton's discombobulated and porous secondary). The road has not been kind to Hamilton (0-5 SU its last five away from friendly confines) and I expect this trend to carry over here as the home side pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

Bob Balfe

Cincinnati Reds -140

Like I said the last two nights I think this Pirates team is going to burn out big time in the second half. The Reds are a playing great baseball and are taking advantage of a team that is struggling with their bats right now. Take Cincinnati.

Jeff Alexander

Milwaukee Brewers -173

Miami has been a dead fade on the road where it has lost 42 of its last 56. It is even 5-21 in its last 26 road games versus losing clubs like the Brewers. Milwaukee is a reliable 55-16 in its last 71 games as a favorite of -151 to -200, and it has won 13 of its last 16 home games against the Marlins. The Brewers are also 3-0 in Wily Peralta's last 3 starts, during which he has a 0.42 ERA. Bet the Brew Crew.