Dave Essler
LA Dodgers -110
Kemp is supposed to be activated and play today for the Dodgers, and he's hit Zimmerman well, as has Hanley. Not many Nationals with the exception of Ryan Zimmerman have hit Kershaw much at all, and Kerhsaw, as you know, is another stick in the order. And there's a chance LaRoche won't play due to the flu. The Dodgers bullpen over the last week has a 0.36 ERA, which is simply sick. The pressure is on Washington not to get swept, but I think they will. Just to much value on Kershaw at this price with the better bats behind him.
Chip Chirimbes
Los Angeles Dodgers -111
Dodgers over Nationals- These two clubs are like trains passing in the night headed in different directions. The 'red-hot' Dodgers have won 19 of their alst 24 games while the Nationals have dropped seven of their last nine. Washington will send Jordan Zimmermann (12-4, 2.58 ERA) to the hill who hasn't lost at home since May of 2012 posting a 9-0 mark with a 1.75 ERA. Los Angeles will counter with Clayon Kershaw (8-6, 1.98) who is 4-2 lifetime against the Nats. Baseball is a long haul and the Dodgers are on the move.
Dave Price
Washington Nationals +103
The Nationals are showing value at home in the underdog role with Zimmerman on the mound. They are 11-0 this season in his home starts as he's posted a 1.75 home ERA. The Nats have also won each of his three career starts versus the Dodgers. L.A. is playing well and has its ace on the mound, but it is just 11-9 in Kershaw's starts this season while Washington is 15-4 in Zimmerman's starts. The Dodgers took the first two games of the series, but recent history tells us the Nats are due as they are 5-0 in their last five games after losing the first two games of a series. Take Washington.
Jack Jones
Phillies/Mets Under 6½
I look for an absolute pitcher's duel in this NL East showdown between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets. Cliff Lee and Matt Harvey, two of the best starters in the league, will go toe-to-toe this afternoon.
Lee has gone 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.995 WHIP in 19 starts this season. The left-hander has been at his best on the road, going 6-1 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.878 WHIP in 11 starts away from home. Lee is also 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in nine career starts against New York.
Harvey has been nothing short of spectacular this season. The right-hander has gone 7-2 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in 19 starts this season with 147 strikeouts over 130 innings. Harvey is 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.760 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia as well.
The UNDER is 11-2 in Lee's last 13 starts vs. NL East opponents. The UNDER is 11-4 in Lee's last 15 road starts. The UNDER is 11-3 in Mets last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The UNDER is 15-6 in Mets last 21 Sunday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Toronto Blue Jays as they attempt to get back on track after losing the first two games of this series.
The Rays are hot right now, going after their 17th win in 19 games, but they'll have to figure out the knuckle-baller R.A. Dickey if they want that sweep.
Tampa is not only 16-2 in their last 18 games... but they aren't committing errors (only three in 18 games) and the starting staff has a 2.09 ERA in that time period.
It's absolutely amazing.
Plus, the offense is batting .285 with 18 home runs while scoring five runs per game during this run. Again... incredibly amazing.
RA Dickey, however, has pitched well over his last few outings and looks to put the stop to the surging Rays.
Dickey has a 3-0 win over the Rays under his belt, but that was back in early June. And as well as he's been pitching lately, the Rays are simply too hot to be stopped right now.
Take the Rays as your free play of the day.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Jeff Benton
My Sunday freebie is the Yankees to pull the upset win over the Red Sox on Sunday night in the rubber game of the East rivals three game set.
New York evened the series with a 5-2 win on Friday, and they have CC Sabathia in search of his 10th win of the season going in the series finale.
Sabathia has lost his last pair of starts, and is just 1-3 his last 4 trips to the hill.
Can you say redemption?
Ryan Dempster will go for Boston, and he is just 5-8 this year with an ERA over 4.
New York has had success in Beantown, winning 9 of the past 12 series meetings, and I like them to close it out with the series win on Sunday night.
3♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Brad Wilton
Sunday's comp play is Over the total in the Phillies-Mets game.
Normally I would look towards a lowering-scoring game with All-Stars Cliff Lee and Matt Harvey on the mound, but with the way the runs have added up this weekend at Citi Field - 21 combined runs on Friday, 9 combined runs on Saturday - I am inclined to look for that one big inning once again on Sunday as the Phils and Mets cap their first series back from the break with a 3-0 Over the total sweep.
The Over has been the play the last 3 times the teams have played and 7 of the past 10 series meetings this year. The Over is also 10-2 Philly's past dozen road outings.
Lee and Harvey are All-Stars, no doubt about that, but we do not need too many runs today, so let's play the Over in the Phillies-Mets finale.
1♦ PHILADELPHIA-N.Y. METS OVER
Brett Atkins
My free winner for tonight is on the Los Angeles Dodgers in Washington, and I want you listing ace-hurler Clayton Kershaw against the Nationals in today's showdown. After the Dodgers won in extra inning last night, serving as a gut-check to the Nats, the Dodgers have the mental edge now, and it's perfect time for the Dodgers' ace southpaw to throw a gem.
Kershaw is in after striking out 10 and allowing three runs on six hits over seven innings in his last outing, before the All-Star Break, but unfortunately he took the loss against the Colorado Rockies.
Nevertheless, the best pitcher in baseball - in my opinion - has won three of his past four starts and leads the Majors with a 1.98 ERA. Lifetime against the Nationals he's 4-2 with a 3.27 ERA, and now he has a chance to help his team complete a crucial road sweep and potentially move into first place into the National League West.
I know Washington's Jordan Zimmerman hasn't lost a game at home since May 17, 2012, a span of 22 starts, but this is too good of a shot for the Dodgers to pass up, and a much-needed sweep is exactly what they need.
Take the road team here, and remember, list Kershaw ONLY.
5♦ L.A. DODGERS
Chris Jordan
Take Milwaukee on the Run Line as my free play today.
The Brewers have won three straight, including the first two of the second half of the season, with wins over the Miami Marlins. Now with a chance to finish the sweep and head into the week with a steam or momentum, I like the Brewers to open up the can and win big here.
We have the right pitchers to expect as much, with the Brewers handing the ball to Wily Peralta and Miami giving the nod to Henderson Alvarez.
Milwaukee's young right-hander has allowed just one earned run in his last 21-1/3 innings and threw the Brewers' first complete game in 2-1/2 years two starts back, against the Reds. Peralta is 4-3 with a 2.86 ERA since June 1, and is in a good spot to dominate the Marlins, who are 9-19 against the Brewers since 2010, including just one victory in five meetings this season.
Take the Brewers on the Run Line.
3♦ MILWAUKEE -1.5
Scott Delaney
My free play for Sunday is on the Kansas City Royals against the Detroit Tigers in an American League Central clash, and I want you listing just one pitcher in this game: Big Game James Shields.
Here's the deal, though we're dealing with the American League Central-leading Tigers, and a solid pitcher in right-handed Doug Fister, who went 8-4 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in the second half last season, Shields is going to be on a mission in this game.
See the Royals have won eight straight games pitched by Shields, but he has six no-decisions in that span. Today could be a motivating factor for him, as I think he may be out to dominate and we could very well see his best stuff.
Shields, who has won just twice in his last 13 outings, has consistently worked deep and has thrown less than 100 pitches just once this year.
The veteran starter with three-quarter arm action knows how to work in pressure situations, and has always had a great feel for pitching. He knows how to locate his low-90s fastball to both sides of the plate and takes hitters off it with a two-plane spiked curveball and features an outstanding changeup. One thing that he does well is throw his change from the same release point as his fastball, and that can throw an aggressive lineup like the Tigers' off balance.
Take the Royals in this one, and list Shields only.
4♦ KANSAS CITY
Wunderdog
Atlanta at Tulsa
Pick: Atlanta -5
Atlanta (10-4) and Chicago are battling for the top spot in the East. Atlanta is well rested for this one against a bad Tulsa team (5-13), having had three full days off, and the Dream is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games playing on three or more days rest. This is the end of a four-game road trip, and they are hungry for a win riding a three-game skid, two of those losses were against the top teams in the West. Atlanta is on a 10-4 ATS run overall, and the Dream is 19-7 ATS against a team with a losing record. Meanwhile, last place Tulsa has a losing record at home, is on a 2-5 ATS run, and the Shock is 3-8 ATS against the Eastern Conference. It's a short turnaround for Tulsa, off a win at Seattle on Friday, and they are still on a 2-7 SU/3-6 ATS run. When these teams meet, Atlanta is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings, including 4-1-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in Tulsa. Play the Atlanta Dream.
Greg Shaker
LA Dodgers -109
There are so many reasons to like the Dodgers here but I am going to be as brief as I can. KERSHAW. Was that brief enough? He's good ya know, and the Nats just simply cannot hit Left handed pitching. They have not all year, they have not recently. LAD is Hot right now. The Nationals are not. That was brief too right? Let's also consider the fact that LA's Pen is unhittable recently posting an ERA of just 0.53 over their last 10 games. I know that The Zimmer Man has been solid here at home but he has not been too sporty lately and decided not to pitch in the All Star Classic due to a sore neck. I am not sure if that will be a factor today but perhaps. What will be a factor is the fact that LAD for the 1st time this year will have Kemp, Ramirez, and Crawford in the lineup, all at the same time. I'm gonna play the Dodgers here.
Indian Cowboy
Milwaukee Brewers -165
The Brewers finished the first half of this MLB season with the second-worst record in the National League at 38-56, ahead of only the Marlins, with a minus -65 run differential. However, manager Ron Roenicke is optimistic the second half will allow his club to turn the page. And so far, so good for the Brew Crew, which has won the first two games of this series by scores of 2-0 and 6-0. Sunday starter Wily Peralta has allowed just one earned run in his last 21 1/3 innings and threw the Brewers' first complete game in two and a half years two starts ago against the Reds. The young right-hander is 4-3 with a 2.86 ERA since June 1, and Milwaukee has won four of his last five outings. Marlins starter Henderson Alvarez is searching for his first win since September of last year, when he was with the Blue Jays. Since then his teams are 1-5 in games he's started. Milwaukee leads the season series with Miami four games to one, has beaten the Marlins 12 of the last 15 times they've met at Miller Park and 15 of the last 20 meetings overall. And there's no reason to believe those trends won't continue Sunday.
Harry Bondi
SAN DIEGO (-145) over San Francisco
Padres send Eric Stults to the mound today and he has been pitching great. He pitched a complete game four hitter against Colorado his last time out and San Diego has won his last three starts. Stutts also has been money at home going 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA in eight starts. Giants will have a little hangover from tim Lincecum's no hitter last night and they are just 17-30 on the road this year. In addition, tonight's San Francisco starter Barry Zito continues to struggle. Zito has not won on the road all year and is 0-5 with a 9.38 ERA in seven starts away from AT&T Park. His numbers in his last two visits to PETCO are even worse, as he's allowed 12 runs on 13 hits over just 7 2/3 innings. Padres romp!
SPORTS WAGERS
Hamilton +7½ over SASKATCHEWAN
The favorites are 3-0 this weekend with all of them winning by nine or more. In almost four full weeks of action with 15 games played, not one has been decided by four points or fewer. That’s an incredible fact when you consider all the close games every year in this league. We mention that because these winning favorites and apparent discrepancy between the good and the bad has this number grossly inflated. The Riders are not as good as their 3-0 record indicates and the Tiger-Cats are better than their 1-2 record suggests. In fact, Saskatchewan has allowed an eye-opening 347.3 passing yards, per game, which is 60 yards more than any other team. You simply can’t keep blowing away teams when you can’t stop the matching band. The Roughriders are a bit too high right now and so is their stock. They have momentum, they have some mo-jo, they’re on top of the world and everything is going right. We often suggest that the best time to jump off a team is when their stock is soaring and that applies here. Also note that although Riders QB Darian Durant is expected to start, he was walking around all week in a walking boot and did not practice the entire week. The Tiger-Cats have everything going against them in this one. They’ll play in a hostile environment, as this stadium will be nuts with the return of Kent Austin to Mosaic Stadium for the first time since walking out on the football club after his Grey Cup season of 2007 when he resigned to take on the offensive coordinators job at Ole Miss. Hamilton has not looked particularly sharp but don’t sell this team short. The Ti-Cats defense is getting better and its offense may just be the league’s best. This is a dangerous visitor taking back points like this and with all attention and focus on Saskatchewan’s 3-0 record and the added pressure by media and fans to put it to Austin and his troops, don’t be surprised to see the Ti-Cats come in here and leave victorious. This is way too many points to be spotting the Ti-Cats and we’re all over it.