Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday July, 22

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies and Giants put the wraps on this three-game series in Philadelphia Sunday afternoon where Joe Blanton matches serves with Barry Zito. Blanton takes the mound in terrific KW form with 20 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last three starts. On the flip side Zito has been having trouble finding the plate with 10 strikeouts and 10 walks in his last three efforts. With Zito 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA in his last two starts in this park, look for the Phillies to avoid the series sweep here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

MTi Sports

Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Astros are 0-29 as a 130-plus underdog when they are off a night loss in which they allowed six-plus runs but fewer than three home runs, losing by an average of 3.9 runs per game. As you can see by running this query, the Astros have allowed 13, 10, 8, 9, 8 and 12 runs in their last six games in this spot. Consider Arizona.

Rob Vinciletti

Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays fit a solid 86% system that plays on home teams with a total of 8 or less that are off a 1 run home favored loss and scored 2 or less runs, vs an opponent off a 1 run road dog win and also scored 2 or less runs and had 10 or more men left on base. Tampa has a solid pitching edge with Moore over Beavan and Seattle is scoring just 2.4 runs in dome games and has been terrible in this park outside of their win on Saturday.

Jim Feist

White Sox vs Tigers
Pick: Over

It has taken since April 23rd, but the Detroit Tigers are back in first place in the AL Central, thanks to a nice run that includes two straight wins over now second place Chicago. And to do it, they beat the best Chicago had on Saturday, Chris Sale. Sale was 11-2 on the season and had a 1-0 lead going into the bottom of the fifth Saturday. But the Tigers scored two off Sale in the bottom of the fifth and then went on to win, 7-1. It was one year ago that Detroit took over first place and never looked back, winning the division. The Tigers hope their spot at the top of the division isn't short lived. Philip Humber starts for the Sox, he's 4-4 on the season with a .577 ERA and 2-1 over his last three starts with a 6.06 ERA. Jacob Turner will get the start for the Tigers. Turner's first start of the season last week didn't go well, as he allowed seven earned runs over two innings to the Angels. Don't look for either of these starters to be around long today, so this one will be won by the bullpens. Both clubs have good pens so it will be pretty even. This game has OVER written all over it with these two starters. By the time the pens become involved this one should be out of hand. Take the OVER.

Dave Cokin

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Cincinnati Reds

Michael Fiers has been a revelation for the Brewers. But his balls in play chart is an indicator of a blowup waiting to happen, and his command was not good last start. This might be the day the regression begins to take place. I'll back Johnny Cueto and the Reds.

Frank Jordan

San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: San Francisco Giants

San Francisco is coming off a big extra inning win over the Phillies as the pitchers were dueling on the mound and at the plate as they each hit a homerun. Today we have two former A's on the mound as Zito and Blanton square off. Zito is hot with wins in three of his last four starts and coming off seven shut out innings against Atlanta allowing just three hits. Blanton is 8-8 this year with an era in the high fours, but coming off a nice outing of his own going eight innings allowing just a pair of runs. Look for a nice duel again in Philadelphia with Blanton blinking first and the Giants winning 6-3. Play San Francisco

Ben Burns

New York vs. Oakland
Pick: Over 7.5

I won with the 'under' in last night's game, a 2-1 final. I expect more runs this afternoon though.

After pitching very well against light-hitting Seattle, Colon wasn't quite as sharp last time out. He gave up four runs on eight hits, suffering a 6-1 loss. Through nine home starts, he's now just 1-6 with a poor 5.08 ERA.

Sabathia was tough last time out. That was his first start back from the disabled list though and it came at home. On the road, he's got a mediocre 4.30 ERA and a fairly high 1.483 WHIP. The 'over' is a profitable 7-2 in his nine road starts.

Colon is 5-7 with a poor 5.66 ERA in 16 starts vs. Yankees. Meanwhile, Sabathia is just 8-8 with a 4.84 ERA vs. Oakland.

These same two pitchers faced each other back in the spring and the final score was 9-2. Don't be surprised to see the bats come to life once again. Consider the Over 7.5.

Bryan Leonard

LA Angels +140

Nate Eovaldi along with Cliff Lee have probably the toughest luck pitchers in baseball this year. The young Dodger right-hander has been very good all season with just about nothing to show for it. LA hasn't hit with him on the mound but with Kemp back in the lineup this team at least gives him a fighting chance. Because of his poor record he's undervalued in the betting markets. New York is slumping badly right now as they see their playoff chances dwindle each day. The Mets have dropped 7 of 8 since the All-Star break with most losses being by the single run variety. The bullpen is the main culprit and as of yet management hasn't attempted to fix the problem. We simply want no part of the Mets right now as a favorite.

SPORTS WAGERS

altimore +122 over CLEVELAND

Josh Tomlin can’t get lefties out and the Orioles are stacked with left-handed hitters. Against southpaws, Tomlin’s BB/K ratio takes a dramatic drop (15BB/22K). His groundball rate drops 5% against lefties, who are hitting .278 against him with a .563 slugging percentage and a .893 OPS.

As luck would have it, the Indians can’t hit lefties. They’re last in the AL with a .218 BA against southpaws and 29th in the league, ahead of only the Astros.

Overall, the Indians are 3-8 at home against left-handed starters and 10-19 overall and will face another one here in Zach Britton. Britton was the talk of MLB last year after starting the year 5-1 but it all came apart after that. He was demoted in July and then DL'd in August. There were some quality starts in between but couldn't sustain success. Britton recently caught fire at AAA Norfolk and was subsequently called up to face the Twins. He bombed in that outing by issuing six walks and four runs in four innings.

He gets another chance here. With an outstanding groundball rate of 55% over his career and with just two walks over his last 15 IP at Norfolk, with that first start out of the way, Zach Britton must cease this moment. The Indians weak numbers against southpaws increases that possibility.

ARIZONA -1½ +100 over Houston

With the demotion of recently called up Trevor Bauer, who was not ready for prime time, Josh Collmenter gets his rotation spot back for the time being. He was the odd man out in the Bauer experiment and but he deserves better. The door is now open for him. Collmenter had two strong starts in July before the demotion against the Brewers and Dodgers. He has 57 k’s in 60 innings with just 15 walks issued and his groundball rate is trending the right way. Collmenter could not have picked a better time for his starting role audition.

The Astros have thrown in the proverbial towel after being active on the trade market over the weekend. On Friday, Houston gave away two serviceable major-league pitchers for some Blue Jays prospects that weren’t in the top 17 on the Blue Jays minor league depth chart. Houston unloaded some salaries and they did the same yesterday when they traded closer Brett Myers to the White Sox.

For a team that has lost five in a row and 18 of its past 20 games, they’ll close out this set having been outscored 25-11 in two games, not to mention the 16 runs they allowed in two games at pitcher friendly Petco Park before this series. That’s now 41 runs allowed in four games and now they’re unloading quality arms.

The Astros are demoralized. Losing is highly contagious and with a line up void of adequate players, things get even worse. This looks like another pounding.

Jack Jones

Chicago White Sox +113

After losing four straight, including the first two of this series to Detroit, the Chicago White Sox will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday. They have fallen a half-game out of first place in the AL Central division, just behind these Tigers.

Philip Humber has been at his best on the road this season, going 4-1 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in six starts away from home. Jacob Turner is 0-1 with a 10.29 ERA and 2.429 WHIP in two starts this season for the Tigers, giving up eight earned runs, three homers and 17 base runners over 7 innings.

The White Sox are 4-0 in Humber's last 4 road starts. Chicago is 4-1 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. The White Sox are 6-1 in Humber's last 7 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Tigers are 1-4 in Turner's last 5 home starts. Bet Chicago Sunday.

Ross King

Houston Astros vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs -1.5

Jordan Lyles will try for the 16th time to get his first road win on the season and is 2-6 with a 5.29 e.r.a.Collmenter has an e.r.a of 6 but in his last 3 starts is 1-0 with a 1.09 e.r.a.Arizona is 12-4 versus Houston the last 3 seasons.Houston is currently 1-13 and 13-38 the last 3 seasons as a road dog of +175 to +200.Houston is currently 2-15 in July and 21-46 the last 3 seasons.Take Arizona -1.5 on the runline as your freeplay winner.

Dave Price

Cincinnati Reds -135

The Reds, who have won 10 of their last 12 overall and are 6-2 versus Milwaukee this season, are showing value at this price with Cueto on the bump. The right-hander is 6-1 with an ERA of 2.02 in 8 home starts with the Reds winning 7 of those. The Reds are 6-0 in Cueto's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 6-0 in his last 6 Sunday starts and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus the Brewers. Take Cincy.

Jimmy Boyd

New York Mets -153

Fading the Dodgers here with Nathan Eovaldi getting the ball. The right-hander is 1-6 (1-8 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.33 this season. One of those losses came to the Mets in a game where he was rocked for 5 runs in 5 1-3 innings of a 5-0 loss. The Dodgers are 0-4 in Eovaldi's last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. New York's Jon Niese is 7-4 (9-9 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.58 on the year. Niese is 2-0 on the ML lifetime versus the Dodgers, holding them to 3 earned runs in each outing. The Mets are 8-3 in their last 11 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Bet the Mets.

DOM CHAMBERS

For my free play, let’s look at the under in the Cincinnati-Milwaukee game.

This is a case of two teams throwing some pretty good pitching.

Johnny Cueto starts for the Reds. He is 11-5 with a 2.28 ERA. At home, he is 6-1 with a 2.02 ERA. He has not been giving up much.

For the Brewers, Michael Fiers starts. He has been outstanding.

He is 3-3, but has an ERA of 2.05. In his last three starts, he is 1-1 with an 0.89. He has given up only two runs in his last 20 1/3 innings.

And those two runs came in the a 4-0 loss to Miami. He does not et much in run support. And, that is good news for the under.

The Brewers, on the road, only average 3.6 runs a game, while the Reds average 4.2 runs a game.

The two teams pushed for the total on Saturday, but the Brewers went under the total the previous five game, while the Reds have gone under the total six of their last seven totals.

Take the under

3♦ UNDER