Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday July, 22

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies and Braves conclude their three-games series in Atlanta Sunday afternoon where Roy Halladay takes on Tim Hudson at Turner Field. Halladay enters in solid KW form with 41 strikeouts and 8 walks in his last eight starts knowing he is 8-1 in his last nine team starts during July. Meanwhile, Hudson has struggled at home this season where his ERA (5.01) in nearly three runs a game worse than his road ERA (2.22). With that look for the Phils to improve to 8-4 in their last 12 games in this park here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Vegas Experts

Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Detroit Tigers

Tigers losing the opener 8-3 up in Toronto followed by a 5-1 defeat on Saturday are staring at a four-game losing streak when they close the three game set north of the border. Detroit will be a little anxious when Doug Fister (4-7, 4.03 ERA) takes to the mound. The right-hander has not performed well away from Comerica Park posting a 1-5 record (4.22 ERA) in eight tries with Tigers 1-7 over the span including 0-3 when the team lost it's previous game. If that were not enough for Jim Leyland and crew to worry about, Tigers know the hurler was 0-2 vs Toronto in three starts wearing a Seattle uniform (0-3 TSR). On a positive note, Fister has a stretch of four quality starts under his belt posting a 3-1 mark and we do find Detroit responds in this situation as Tigers are on a 4-0 stretch avoiding a four game slide outscoring opponents 31-19. Tigers 7-1 last eight vs a left-hander starter get to swing at Brett Cecil (2-3, 5.82 ERA) offerings. Tigers should claw their way to victory, the Blue Jays southpaw is off back-2-back losses and winless in three starts with a whopping 6.06 ERA.

MTi Sports

San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
Prediction: San Diego Padres

The Padres are 12-1 with Clayton Richard when he faced fewer than 25 hitters on the road in his last start. Note that his lone loss was a 2-0 defeat vs Cole Hamels in which he went seven and a third. This season he has two quality start wins as a dog. Josh Johnson wants to stay in Miami and his offense does as well. A dominating win here might get another team to up their offer for him. Miami is already thinking about next season. The Padres are worth a shot at this price.

Rob Vinciletti

Royals vs. Mariners
Play: Under 6.5

This game fits a nice 68% totals system that goes Under for home favorites of -140 or higher with a total that is 8 or less, if they are off a 1 run home favored win with a total that was 8 or less and they had 1 error, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 1 run and scored 4 or less runs on 10 or more hits. This ones long winded but very potent. Seattle has King Felix on the mound and he has a 1.11 era in his last 3 games. Smith for K.C. has a solid start vs Seattle going 7 innings allowing just one run. Seattle has played under in 10 of 14 on Sunday and they are hitting .215 the past week. Twelve of their last 13 have stayed under. They Royals have played under 4 of 5 on the road with a total of 7 or less and 9 of 12 as a road dog of +150 to+175. Look for this one to go under the total.

Jesse Schule

NY Mets vs. Arizona
Pick: Over

The Mets will send R.A. Dickey to the hill on Sunday, looking for his 14th win of the Season. Dickey (13-2, 2.97 ERA) had an excellent start to the season, however since the All Star break, he has been hit hard. He got roughed up in his last start, allowing five runs on eigtht hits, including a home run, working six innings in a 5-2 loss to Washington. He has allowed home runs in three straight appearances, and he's given up 21 runs over his last 26 innings pitched. Tricky Dickey isn't fooling anybody with his knuckleball anymore, and he will have to dig deep into his bag of tricks to keep Arizona in check today.

Joe Saunders will take the mound for the D'Backs in this one, coming off a win his last time out. Saunders (5-6, 3.51 ERA) allowed just two runs on three hits, all of the damage coming on a pair of solo homers, while pitching seven innings defeating Colorado 6-2. Saunders is actually a better pitcher away from home, as his ERA here at Chase Field (4.66), is much worse in comparison to his ERA of 2.44 on the road.

Saunders will have to be careful when pitching to Jason Bay, who has really hit him well in the past, going 5 for 10 with a double and a pair of homers lifetime versus the lefty.

You could see a lot of runs crossing the plate in Arizona today, as the total goes OVER the number.

Jim Feist

Indians vs Twins
Pick: Over

Indians at Twins: A pair of hurlers on the mound who can't throw strikes. Clogging the base paths with hits AND free passes means plenty of runs. Ubaldo Jimenez of the Indians has a 4.97 ERA because of 69 walks in 119 innings. In his last three starts: 11 walks in 14 innings, for an 8.36 ERA! Francisco Liriano of the Twins (3-10, 5.31 ERA) has a similar problem, allowing 55 walks in 100 innings, plus he's 0-3 with a 6.38 ERA his last three starts. Play the Indians/Twins over the total.

Dave Cokin

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins
Pick: San Diego Padres

The Marlins should not be favored by this price against anyone. Josh Johnson can be tough for sure, but Miami looks a little soft against southpaws, so I'm backing the Padres to pull off the upset.

SPORTS WAGERS

San Diego +154 over MIAMI

Miami has scored just 78 runs this month, which is 24th in the majors and the recent trades of Omar Infante to Detroit and Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers doesn't help matters. The Fish have scored three runs or less in nine of their past 10 games and that makes this disinterested club a huge risk as a big favorite. They’ve also lost eight of 10 and 12 of 17.

Josh Johnson is their ace and the reason Miami is priced in this range. However, a large part of pitching and playing this game is psychological and the Marlins lack of desire is evident. That can certainly carry over to the starting pitcher and there’s evidence of that, as Johnson has allowed five runs twice and four runs once over his last four starts. He was also rocked in San Diego earlier in the year to the tune of six runs in 2.2 frames.

Clayton Richard has an elite 55% groundball rate and has only walked 30 batters in 140 innings. That combination of pinpoint control and an outstanding GB rate makes him a dangerous starter and even more so against a team that has seemingly quit. As the chalk, the Miami Marlins are fade material right now.

Scott Spreitzer

SF Giants +100

San Fran has dropped the first two games of the series and three in a row overall, but trusted hurler Ryan Vogelsong takes the AT&T bump today. The righty has allowed more than 3 earned runs just once in 18 starts this season and he's had very little trouble with the Dodgers in five starts since coming back to the "bigs" in 2011. Vogelsong has held the Dodgers to 8 earned runs and 1 home run in 34 innings of work. Los Angeles has dropped Clayton Kershaw's last four road starts and he has been pounded for 13 earned runs and 17 base runners in his last two roadies, spanning 11 innings of action. The Dodgers have won just 7 of their last 26 against righthanded starters and face one of the best in this one. Meanwhile, the Giants are on a 5-0 run against southpaws and they're on an 8-0 run when Vogelsong toes the home rubber. I'm backing the SFO Giants on Sunday.

Tony Stoffo

Dodgers vs.Giants
Play: Under 6

The odds makers have posted a super low total here for today as the Giants and Dodgers finish up their weekend series. However I feel it's not high enough with Kenshaw and Vogelsong matching up in this spot. First off Kenshaw has owned the Giants batters with a 1.47 ERA and 0.902 WHIP - While Vogelsong in his two starts against the Dodgers this season has thrown 14+ innings while allowing just 1 run - so you can see how both teams will have major problems scoring any runs here today - thus making the Under the highly recommended play here. Under is 5-0 in Kershaw's last 5 starts vs. Giants. Under is 4-1 in Kershaw's last 5 starts vs. National League West. Under is 21-4-1 in Vogelsong's last 26 home starts. Under is 15-3 in Vogelsong's last 18 starts with 5 days of rest.

Jimmy Boyd

Cincinnati Reds -159

The Reds, who have won eight in a row on the road, get the call as our free play Sunday. They take on a Colorado club that has dropped 32 of its last 45 overall and 16 of its last 21 at home.

The Reds have the edge on the mound with Latos. They have won nine of his last 12 starts. He enters in top form, having allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts.

Sanchez, now with the Rockies, has had a terrible season. The southpaw has an ERA of 8.00 on the year. He's 0-6 on the money line in his last six starts and has given up five earned runs or more in four of his last five starts. Take Cincinnati.

Cajun Sports

Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners

Our comp selection takes us to the Pacific Northwest where the Seattle Mariners play host to the Kansas City Royals on Sunday afternoon. The Mariners have been almost perfect over the years as a home favorite of at least 130 when they enter off a win in their last game scoring in at most two separate innings, 20-1 SU for a profit of +1840 Units. The situation becomes perfect if the teams were tied after the seventh inning, posting a record of 18-0 SU for a profit of +1800 Units. Due to the high price we will only recommend a small play on the Mariners with Hernandez on the bump Sunday afternoon.

Lenny Del Genio

Kansas City vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle

Thankfully, because Seattle is typically such a poor team you can almost always grab them at a decent price even with Felix Hernandez on the hill. But as poor as the M's have been this season, Kansas City is even worse. That's been evident by the Mariners taking the first three games of this four game set and w/ King Felix on the hill Sunday, we see them getting the sweep. KC has now lost 11 of 14 to fall into the basement of the AL Central (behind Minnesota). Remember how some were considering this club a sleeper in the division prior to the start of the season? What a joke! They should have no luck against Hernandez, who is 3-0 w/ a 1.11 ERA his last three starts and a 2.23 ERA in 11 starts at Safeco Field this season. In his only appearance vs. the Royals this year, he allowed just one run over 8 IP. Seattle is 6-1 this year vs. Kansas City. Don't confuse Royals' spot starter Will Smith, who gets the baseball today, for "The Fresh Prince" as he has a woeful 6.26 ERA in five starts this season.

Jeff Alexander

New York Mets +106

Dickey hasn't been as sharp in the second half of the season, but that won't keep me off him at this price. The Mets haven't lost consecutive games that Dickey has started this season. They are 15-5 in his starts this season, 7-3 in his road starts and 8-2 in his day starts. Arizona's Saunders doesn't instill the same level of confidence. He has a 4.66 ERA at home this season and the Diamondbacks are 2-5 in his last 7 starts. Bet the Mets.