JEFF BENTON
Your Sunday free play is the Under in the Braves-Nationals game.
After a wild Friday night affair that saw the Braves come from 9-0 down and win 10-9 in 11-innings of play, the teams went out on Saturday and played a day/night doubleheader.
I have to believe there will be some tired bodies on the field this afternoon in the nation's capital, and that Jair Jurrjens and Ross Detwiler will gave their way.
Jurrjens was just pounded his last time on the mound, as he gave up 8 runs in just over 3 innings of work, but in his previous 4 starts since coming back up to the majors he allowed only 6 earned runs in his 25-plus innings pitched. Look for the righty to get back in his groove in this start.
Ross Detwiler is making his 5th start back in the rotation after working out of the bullpen, and he has allowed 7 earned runs in his 23-plus innings pitched in those previous 4 assignments.
With both games on Saturday holding Under the posted price, why not make it 3 in a row Under the total this Sunday afternoon with Jurrjens and Detwiler.
2♦ UNDER
CRAIG DAVIS
Today's free play winner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks to thrash the Houston Astros in the desert.
I've seen enough. I've watched the Astros continue to struggle, game after game, on the road, no matter who is pitching or what the lineup is.
Arizona has absolutely thrashed the Astros twice so far this series, and that's after Houston went to San Diego and played like crap and took their lumps. Folks, Houston is 10-40 on the road this season, meaning they are only winning 1 in every 5 games away from Minute Maid Park.
Houston has been outscored 42-17 in their last five road games (all losses) and it doesn't promise to get any better today. Jordan Lyles takes the hill with his 6+ ERA and his 14 earned runs allowed over his past three starts and has a 12.60 ERA.
Arizona is still under .500 on the season, but they are still well within striking distance of first-place San Francisco and second-place Los Angeles. And honestly, I'm not even worried about who's pitching for the Diamondbacks tonight (Josh Collmenter), because whoever it might be is going to be better at home than Houston's pitcher on the road, and we know the Diamondbacks hit 25 points higher at home than they do on the road.
Arizona will score double digits for the third straight game and win big over Houston as your free play of the day.
4♦ ARIZONA -1.5
CHRIS JORDAN
Now 10-2 with free picks after dropping a couple the past two nights, but today I change that with a winner on the Detroit Tigers over the visiting Chicago White Sox. I don't care about the pitchers, and just want you playing that value number, as I think the Tigers are in a great spot once again. Detroit is laying just 1.20, so don't even sweat the price if I'm off by a nickel or two.
And listen, even though I'm not listing pitchers, I will say that I like the Tigers' chances after seeing the way they took it to Chris Sale, the White Sox's most consistent hurler this season, but who was shelled yesterday.
Today the Tigers get a crack at Philip Humber, who is just 4-4 with a 5.77 ERA on the year. He has a 6.06 ERA in his last three starts and could be headed into trouble in this one.
He takes on the Detroit Tigers, who are a Major League-best 15-5 since June 28 and have won 10 of their last 11 games at Comerica Park. He also has to deal with Miguel Cabrera, who went 1-for-3 with a walk yesterday, matching his season high by extending his hitting streak to five games. He remains two homers shy of 300 for his career, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him blast a pair today, to be quite honest.
The White Sox have lost six of their last eight games overall, and can't seem to get into a groove while in Motown, as they've lost 14 of 18 at Comerica Park.
My money is on the Tigers.
2♦ DETROIT
MATT RIVERS
Free play winner for Sunday is the Yankees on the Run Line over the Oakland A's.
Oakland has proved they are an up-and-coming team with the way they have played New York in this four game set, but today the Yankees get to face a pitcher they know well, as Bartolo Colon did pitch last season in a pinstripe uniform.
Colon just got hit hard at home by Texas his last time out, going 7 innings but allowing 8 hits and 4 runs to cross in the loss. Colon is just 2-6 with a 4.55 ERA at home this year, and it is high time the Yankees get their bats cranking before heading up the west coast for Monday night's date in Seattle.
CC Sabathia looked just fine in his first start back from a groin injury, as the big southpaw improved to 10-3 on the year with 6 scoreless innings worked with just 4 hits allowed and 6 strikeouts as well.
Yesterday was Sabathia's birthday, and today he does the mound work while the bats give him the birthday present he most appreciates - runs.
Take New York on the Run Line to pull away from Oakland this Sunday.
4♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
SCOTT DELANEY
Today the A's are my free play, as I like them to complete the sweep over the travel-weary pinstripes, who have lost three straight in this series. Meanwhile, the A's put their four-game streak on the line.
The Yankees' biggest problem with this series has to be that is started on Thursday, quite honestly. After finishing up a sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays in the Bronx on Wednesday, the Yanks had to catch a flight to the West coast and start this series Thursday.
And yes, they likely got some sleep/rest on their charter flight, and after arriving, but Game 1 of this series started at 1 a.m. eastern, a game the Athletics won 4-3. Then the A's made it two straight over the Yankees with a 3-2 win on Friday night. In a third-straight tight contest, the A's won last night, 2-1 thanks to a Brandon Inge homer late in the game.
The A's are now a league-best 13-2 in July, and that's much better than the Yankees, a team that is 10-7 this month.
And make note, as I pointed out yesterday, this is how the last two nights have been for Oakland, the Yankees had won nine straight in Oakland prior to this series starting. The Athletics are making their case in fighting to stay in the race for the American League's second Wild Card spot.
Play the home underdog straight up and don't even worry about listing pitchers.
1♦ OAKLAND
GoodFella
KC Royals -139
Twins missing a few key players in Pouffe and Morneau & are sending out a SP who has simply shown he walks way too many for me & while KC has never seen him, his lack of command is clearly known & I look for them to take advantage of that & definitely expect KC to get to him by the 5th inning, as this KC lineup is deep and excel vs RH pitching and at home. Newly acquired Guthrie takes the ball for KC & getting OUT OF COORS FIELD is going to be a good thing for Guthrie IMO, and I look for a extremely motivated Guthrie to toss a decent game today, as he has pitched very well vs Minny in his career. I fully expect Guthrie to out pitch Deduno and hand the ball over to the bully with a nice lead & my money is on the ROYALS today.
Jeff Alexander
New York Yankees -178
Despite losing the first 3 games of this series, the Yankees are still 13-4 in their last 17 meetings in Oakland. Look for them to bounce back strong behind Sabathia this afternoon. The Yankees are 24-3 in Sabathia's last 27 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200, 19-3 in his last 22 starts as a road favorite of -151 to -200 and 8-1 in his last 9 Sunday starts. The Athletics are 5-13 in their last 18 games vs. a left-handed starter, 2-6 in their last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter and 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home underdog of +151 to +200. Bet New York.
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado -104 over SAN DIEGO
Russ Ohlendorf is 3-0 in three starts since joining the Padres rotation. Christian Friedrich is 5-7 with a 5.85 ERA and he’s 1-2 over his past three starts with an ERA of 7.20. Yet, it must be noted that oddsmakers have made the Rockies a slight road favorite here because under the hood, Ohlendorf is nothing but a cluster of rust. Ohlendorf’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile reads like a horror novel at 20%/24%/56%. He has a 5.87 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP. His xERA of 5.66 isn’t much better. In his three starts this year, Tuesday was the first time he had managed to go longer than 4.2 innings. That was against the Astros. His unblemished W/L record is unsupported.
The Padres have 11 wins in 33 starts against southpaws and will face another one here. Friedrich’s skills certainly have been roster-worthy. He has 71 k’s in 75 frames and a 41%/33% groundball/fly-ball split. He has been hurt by a 37% hit rate a 65% strand rate, a 15% HR/F and a very unfavorable schedule. Friedrich has started half of his 14 games at Coors field. Four of his seven road starts came at Arizona, Cincinnati, Detroit and Texas. His 3.88 xERA suggests that his actual ERA should be more than two earned runs lower. When he pitched here back in May, he allowed one earned run in six frames. The numbers strongly suggest that corrections are coming to both starters here and those corrections heavily favours this guest.