Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 25,2010

Marc Lawrence

New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw to the mound against R.A. Dickey and the Mets in the finale of this four game series at Chavez Ravine this afternoon knowing Kershaw is 2-0 in his two career team starts in this series. With the Mets having a difficult time plating runs of late, look for Dickey to slip to 2-13 in his career team starts during the month of July here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers.

VEGAS EXPERTS
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Boston at Seattle
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The Red Sox send Dice K to the hill today and the Sox righty is rounding into shape. In his last three starts he's posted a respectable 3.57 ERA with all of those outings on the road. Seattle starts Fister and although he's posted decent numbers on the season he's been struggling of late with a 5.09 ERA and 0-3 team start in his last three starts. Seattle won last night's game despite getting only four hits and are now hitting just over .200 in their last seven games. Boston gives Dice K the needed support tonight as the Red Sox beat up Fister and get the final game of this series!
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Play on: Boston

Frank Jordan
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San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: San Francisco Giants
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San Francisco is rolling having won three in a row and 8 of 10 to pull with in 3 games of the first place Padres. This run by the Giants is due to good pitching which looks to continue as the Giants have Lincecum on the mound who is 2-0 over his last three starts all wins by the Giants. Look for Lincecum to continue his hot pitching on the road which has him at 4-1 on the road as the Giants go for the sweep of Arizona. Play San Francisco

BIG AL
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Rockies @ Phillies
PICK: Over 9.5
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The struggling Phillies, who are just 4-6 in their last 10 games heading into Sunday's action, hope to get a well-needed boost from the return of lefthander J.A. Happ to the rotation this afternoon. Happ, who finished second last year in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting, has been out since April with an injury in his throwing elbow and he will no doubt be welcomed back by the home crowd today at Citizens Bank Park. The only problem is, Happ is being rushed back to the rotation because of an injury to Jamie Moyer and the truth is that the Phils would have preferred that Happ continue his rehab assignment in the minors for a while longer. Even though they don't really think he's ready, they are forced to go with him today against a Rockies team that's had some struggles of their own lately. Fellow southpaw Jeff Francis got a well-needed quality start last time out, but he'll have to have a few more before anyone thinks he's back to his best form as he'd really been struggling prior to shutting out the Marlins last Tuesday. In his three prior starts, Francis had allowed 16 runs in just 12 innings and although this is his first start of 2010 against Phily, he's struggled against them in the past, with just one win in four career starts with an ugly 7.59 ERA. Runs have been plentiful in Francis' starts, as none of his last four outings have resulted in less than 10 total runs. Take the 'over.'

Tom Freese
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Minnesota at Baltimore
Play: Minnesota
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Minnesota starter Kevin Slowey has 13 strikeouts and just 2 walks in his last 3 starts. The Twins are 25-12 in the last 37 starts made by Slowey as a favorite. Minnesota is 36-16 their last 52 games as favorites of -110 to -150. The Twins are 10-4 their last 14 meetings in Baltimore. Orioles starter Jake Arrieta won his last start 11-10. He will need to pitch much better today if he wants to win today. The Orioles are 30-70 their last 100 games as underdogs and they are 2-8 their last 10 home games.

EZWINNERS
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Los Angeles Dodgers -172
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After a great start to the season, Mets starting pitcher R.A. Dickey has now lost three straight starts. Dickey has pitched well enough to win in all of those starts, but he is just not receiving any run support from the struggling Mets offense. I don't expect the New York bats to do much better for Dickey in this start against the Dodgers with Clayton Kershaw on the mound for LA. Kershaw has been pitching very well this season and he is very dominate at home. The Mets are only 1-5 in their last six trips to Los Angeles. Play on the Dodgers.

Tony Bravo
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Houston Astros
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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I love the way rookie reds pitcher Mike Leake has dominated the National League without much fanfare. Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg is getting all the ink but quietly Leake has been the best rookie pitcher in the National League. Leake will dominate the Astros at the juice box. Houston might have the worst offense in the National League.

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -145
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Expect the Red Sox to bounce back strong following Saturday's defeat. Seattle hasn't won back-to-back games in nearly a month. The Mariners have lost 16 of their last 20 overall and 11 of their 13 at home. They are also 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win and 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog. The M's send Fister to the mound today, and it is certainly worth noting that they are 0-4 in his last 4 starts and 1-6 in his last 7 home starts. For Boston, Matsuzaka has pitched a pair of gems in back-to-back wins at Toronto and Oakland. Looking back, the Red Sox are 14-3 in Matsuzaka's last 17 starts as a road favorite, 4-0 in Matsuzakas last 4 starts vs. the American League West and 8-2 in his last 10 Sunday starts. Take the Red Sox in this bounce back spot.

Gill Alexander
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NYM (+160) vs LOS
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Dickey has 8 quality outings in his last 9 starts, including 4 in a row coming into this ballgame. His ERA over those 4 appearances is 2.28. That's not to take anything away from Kershaw, who has held opponents to a .218BA this season and has 7 straight quality starts at home for which he has posted a 2.48ERA. However, unlike the amazing consistency that Dickey has exhibited, Kershaw is prone to the very ordinary outing, generally speaking. He yielded 5ER in 6.2IP v LAA towards the end of June and gave up 4ER in 4.1IP v StL two starts ago. But again, this is more about the fact that Dickey shouldn't be +160 against anyone. Period. While much has been made about the Mets' offensive struggles -- they're batting just .211 with 32R and 105SO over 15G and just .194 while averaging 2.3R/G while getting shut out 3 times in dropping 8 of their last 10 -- the Dodgers have also failed to generate much offense lately, scoring 3 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 10 ballgames. The real big angle beyond that on this play is that the Mets and Dodgers played a 13 inning ballgame on Saturday. The Mets used 6 relievers while the Dodgers used 8. The key: while Valdes and Parnell each went 2IP for the Mets, a much more formidable pair in Jonathon Broxton and Jeff Weaver each went 2IP for LAD and will most likely be unavailable for this one. That's a huge back end advantage for NYM in this one, whether Dickey emerges with the edge over Kershaw or not, prior to the game getting thrown to the pens. At +160, this is a must play.

JIM FEIST

SAN DIEGO PADRES / PITTSBURGH PIRATES
PLAY: SAN DIEGO PADRES

The NL West leading Padres are playing great ball, having now won seven of their last nine games after Saturday's 9-2 drubbing of the Pirates. It's still baffles most people how the Padres have the NL's best record with a team with no power and a team .253 bating average. Good pitching must beat good hitting since the Padres are doing this with a top NL staff and bullpen. Sure, the Padres have scored 14 runs in the first two games of this series, but they did this by only getting two runs on one extra base hit. Meanwhile, the Pirates lost their third game in a row and for the 11th time in the last 15. San Diego will start Wade LeBlanc who is 4-8 this season with a 3.28 ERA. Despite having eight losses, LeBlanc has not given up more than four earned runs in any of his last 10 starts while holding opponents to one run or less in four of those starts. Brad Lincoln gets the start for the Bucs with a 1-3 record, 6.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Lincoln was hit hard last time out, allowing seven earned runs and nine hits in just 2 1/3 innings to the Brewers. I don't like laying this heavy of a price on the road, but when you have such a difference in pitching, you know you will always be in this game with the Padres. I'm taking San Diego here as they continue their great play.

Chuck O'Brien

The Dodgers came through in 13 innings to cash Saturday’s FREE winner. Sunday’s complimentary selection comes from Houston, as I’ll play the Reds as a slight favorite against the Astros.

One of the reasons I used Cincinnati as my 30 Dime top play on Saturday was the fact that it completely owns Houston. With last night’s rout, the Reds are now 16-2 in the last 18 meetings, including 7-1 this year. They’ve also won five straight games at Minute Maid Park. And none of these contests have been very close, with the Reds’ last nine victories in this rivalry coming by scores of 10-4, 10-4, 6-2, 6-4, 4-2, 15-6, 12-2, 6-4 and 7-0.

Reds rookie Mike Leake has faced the Astros twice this season and allowed just one run in 13 innings, winning 6-4 in Houston and getting a no-decision in the Reds’ 2-0 home loss (the only game Cincy has dropped to the Astros this year). Leake is coming off a strong start against the Nationals, as he was rolling through five innings (one run, five hits allowed) before a long rain delay ended his night. Also, the right-hander has displayed a ton of poise on the road, going 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in seven starts (including that 6-4 victory in Houston on April 28).

So why not use Leake and Cincinnati as a premium play once more today? Only one reason, and that’s Astros lefty Wandy Rodriguez. He’s turned his season around in the last month, although he did get hit around pretty good at Wrigley Field on Monday (five runs in six innings). However, the Astros handed him a 7-0 first-inning lead and cruised to an 11-5 victory, so they’re 4-1 in Rodriguez’s last five starts. That said, Rodriguez got tattooed by Cincinnati back on May 28, giving up eight runs in 3 1/3 innings, falling 15-6 on the road.

The Reds are 6-2 in their last eight games against southpaw starters, 51-20 in their last 71 against teams with a losing record and 26-9 in their last 35 on the road versus losing teams. On the flip side, Houston has lost six straight games on Sunday and six of eight as a home underdog.

3♦ CINCINNATI

Karl Garrett

G-Man all over the Cardinals to stop their 3 game slide with the win in tonight's series finale at Chicago.

The Cubbies have had the Cardinals number this weekend, but I expect Chris Carpenter to put a halt to all of that noise, as Carpenter comes into this start off of consecutive wins over the Dodgers and Philadelphia his last 2 times out, allowing just 2 earned runs his last 16 innings of work.

Carpenter has also been tough on the Cubs, going 3-0 against them his last 4 starts with just 4 runs allowed in 26 innings of work.

Ryan Demspter is on an 0-2 slide the last 3 times he has faced the Cardinals, and his May start against them saw 6 runs allowed in 7 innings of work for the loss.

Chicago has been playing better baseball of late, that is for sure, but tonight Carpenter is a buzz saw and the Redbirds stop their 3 game slide.

4♦ ST. LOUIS

Bobby Maxwell

I scored a FREE winner on Saturday when the Twins crushed the Orioles, improvig my comp record to 124-111-3. Today I have a free winner on the Tigers in the opening game of their doubleheader against the Blue Jays in Detroit.

Detroit has won 35 of their last 51 at home and even though right-hander Jeremy Bonderman (5-6, 4.98 ERA) has struggled this season, I like him in this situation against the Blue Jays.

Bonderman has always pitched well against Toronto, not allowing more than three runs in any game against them dating back to 2004 (10 outings). The Tigers have alternated wins and losses when he takes the hill over the last month-plus and on Monday he allowed five runs in 5.1 innings of an 8-6 loss to the Rangers.

Lefty Brett Cecil (8-5, 3.99 ERA) is on the hill for the Blue Jays. He gave up three runs in 6.1 innings in Kansas City on Monday, losing 5-4 to the Royals. The Blue Jays have lost two of his last three roadies, where he’s got a 3.07 ERA.

Toronto is on slides of 8-20 as an underdog, 1-6 on Sunday, 2-5 in the opening game of a doubleheader and 3-8 against the A.L. Central. Detroit is riding several positives, including 55-25 as a home favorite, 6-0 against the A.L. East, 5-1 against left-handers and 19-7 at home against teams with losing road records, plus they are 6-2 when Bonderman is a home favorite.

Play the home team to get the early game in this doubleheader.

2♦ DETROIT GM 1

Stephen Nover

I am 43-26-1 on my last 70 free selections. I had a 100 Dime cash on my Saturday paid play, an easy six-run winner with the Giants. There's a game on the Sunday card I like equally as much, making it only my third 100 Dime play of the season.

Value is huge in baseball. The season is so long that you can't pass it up, because it will pay off in the long run. This is a big reason why I like the underdog White Sox as my complementary Sunday selection against Oakland.

The pitching matchup is 23-year-old rookie Daniel Hudson versus Dallas Braden.

This has been a real mixed season for Braden. His highlight, of course, was a perfect game against Tampa Bay on May 9. Since then, however, Braden is 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA. Oakland is 1-8 in Braden's nine starts following his perfect game.

Braden is dealing with elbow stiffness that was so bad he had to go on the disabled list. He made his first start since returning from the DL this past Tuesday against Boston and gave up four runs (one earned) on 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings.

Hudson is one of the better pitching prospects in the American League. He's being prominently mentioned in trade talks involving Prince Fielder and Adam Dunn. Hudson looked real good in his last start, a 6-1 win at Seattle this past Monday.

Hudson held the Mariners to one run in 6 2/3 innings, while fanning six. This is a crucial start for him, not only because the White Sox are trying to hold on to first place in the AL Central Division, but also for his possible future. Even though he's a rookie, Hudson has shown good poise and focus.

The A's do have the best record in day games at 23-10. The White Sox, though, aren't too shabby either when playing in sunlight. They've won 11 of their last 13 day contests.

5♦ CHICAGO