Info Plays
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3* on Arizona Diamondbacks +132
Reasons the Diamondbacks win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (ARIZONA) - allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games. This is a 43-20 ML System hitting 68.3% since 1997 while gaining +45.9 units. This system is 9-1 this season.
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2.) The Giants are just 5-5 in Tim Lincecum's 10 lifetime starts vs. Arizona. Lincecum gave up 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings in his only start against Arizona this season. The Diamondbacks won that game 8-7. Barry Enright has been brilliant this year, going 2-2 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.141 WHIP as a starter for Arizona. Bet the Diamondbacks at home.
Dave PriceTHESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on Texas Rangers -1.5 -119
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Hunter is on the hill for Texas tonight, and he is a brilliant 7-0 (8-1 on the money line) with an ERA of only 2.09 this season. All of his 8 wins have come by 2 runs or more. The Angels call up some fresh meat in Trevor Bell tonight. In 2 relief appearances against the Rangers, spanning just 3 2/3 innings, he has allowed seven runs on 9 hits. Look for Texas to continue to have his number. Take the Rangers on the run line.
Steve Janus
Boston vs. Seattle
Pick: Boston -140
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I really like the Red Sox to bounce back from a loss on Saturday with a big win to finish up their series against the Mariners. Daisuke Matsuzake is on the mound for the Red Sox, and he is starting to pitch a lot better. In his last two starts Matsuzaka has allowed a total of just three runs and only eight hits, and he gets a struggling Mariners lineup today.
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Boston hasn't had to use the bullpen much lately, and that really is a good sign for them to win today, as they are 25-9 against the money line with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game over the last 2 seasons. Boston also knows how to take advantage of a weaker opponenet, as they are 31-7 against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Bet Boston!
INSIDER ANGLES
Cincinnati vs. Houston
Mike Leake of the Cincinnati Reds is certainly having a nice rookie campaign at 7-1, but Wandy Rodriguez of the Houston Astros has continued to display the severe home vs. away splits he has had throughout his career, and he gives the Astros value as small home underdogs here.
Rodriguez is 7-11 with a 5.11 ERA overall and he has continued to falter on the road, but he has now reeled off three straight Quality Starts here at home while allowing only four earned runs and 12 hits in 19 innings with 19 strikeouts against only five walks. He has had one awful start vs. the Reds this year, but that was at Cincinnati, and the last time he faced them in Houston, he allowing only two runs in six innings last September.
No one can quite explain why Rodriguez has had such severe splits, but they are certainly real. For his career, Wandy is 35-26 at home with am excellent 3.66 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, with 402 strikeouts and 166 walks in 80 starts. On the road, this exact same pitcher has gone 23-37 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, with 337 strikeouts and 160 walks in 74 starts! Therefore, it is not as if we are talking only about a small sampling.
Now Leake has really not done much wrong, as he has a 3.45 ERA in 18 starts. However, the youngster has finally begun to show some inconsistency more fitting for his age lately, with only three Quality Starts in his last seven outings. He has alternated good and bad outings in his last six starts, which puts him in line for a bad start today after pitching well vs. the Nationals on Tuesday, as he was nicked for five earned runs and nine hits two starts back.
With the Reds winning the first two games of this series, look for Houston to avoid the home sweep with Rodriguez continuing his home dominance as a slight dog.
Pick: Astros +105
WUNDERDOG
Atlanta at Florida
Pick: Florida +1.5
Don't look now but the Marlins are on a roll having won six of their last eight games. They go for the series win vs. Atlanta this afternoon. Atlanta's Jair Jurrjens has been amazing at home this season but on the road he is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA. Chris Volstad has a 3.55 ERA at home. In day games this season, Florida owns a winning record and they are allowing just 3.3 runs per game. They also own a winning mark vs. division opponents. Atlanta is coming off a big win last game but that doesn't bode well for them as the Braves are just 15-37 on the road after a win by 4+ runs the past three seasons. Meanwhile, Florida is 11-2 revenging a loss in which they allowed 10+ runs. I like Florida today and will back them on the +1.5 runline here.
Jack Jones
Boston Red Sox -140 at BetUS
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Daisuke Matsuzaka continues his domination on the road tonight as he takes on the lowly Seattle Mariners. Matsuzaka is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA in his last six road starts for Boston. He is also 2-1 with a 3.99 ERA in six career starts vs. Seattle. He'll be taking on the worst line-up in the majors. Seattle ranks dead last in the league in batting average (.234), runs scored (326), and home runs (62).
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Mariners starter Doug Fister is 0-5 with a 5.33 ERA dating back to May 14th. Boston is 18-5 vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. Fister does not issue many walks, but he also doesn't strike out many batters, either. Fister has just 47 strikeouts in 96 innings pitched this season. Boston is 25-9 with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game over the last 2 seasons. Seattle is 18-40 as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. Fister is 4-15 with a total set of 7.0 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Red Sox Sunday.