SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (53-47) at Philadelphia (55-40)
The Cardinals send righty Todd Wellemeyer (7-8, 5.68 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia as they try to get the rubber match of this three-game set against the Phillies and Joe Blanton (6-4, 4.24).
Both teams have scored blowout wins in the first two games of the series, with the Cardinals grabbing the 8-1 win on Friday, followed by Philadelphia’s 14-6 drubbing Saturday. The Phillies have taken three of four from the Cardinals this season and seven of nine dating back to last year.
It’s been tough going lately for St. Louis, which is currently on slides of 5-7 overall, 2-4 on its current road trip, 1-5 as a ‘dog, 2-5 on the road against winning teams and 1-5 as a road ‘dog. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is on a plethora of positive streaks that include 16-5 overall, 52-25 following a win, 16-5 as a favorite, 13-3 at home, 69-31 on Sundays and 38-18 against the N.L. Central.
Wellemeyer comes into this one with a mediocre 3-3 record and a 6.14 ERA on the highway. At Houston on Tuesday he allowed five runs (four earned) on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings of an 11-6 loss. In his last four roadies, Wellemeyer has allowed at least four earned runs, and the Cardinals are just 1-3 in those four outings.
Wellemeyer had mixed results in two starts against the Phillies last year, holding them to one run in six innings on Aug. 3 after allowing eight runs in 3 1/3 innings on June 13. With Wellemeyer on the hill, St. Louis is on slides of 0-6 on Sunday, 1-4 when he’s on the road against a winning team and 1-4 when he follows a loss.
Blanton has been spectacular lately, going 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA in his last three starts. He held the Cubs to one run on five hits in seven innings on Tuesday, but didn’t factor in the decision as the Phillies prevailed 4-1 in 13 innings. The veteran right-hander has allowed two runs in 22 2/3 innings in his last three contests, all Phillies victories.
Blanton has had two strong career starts against the Cardinals, allowing a combined two runs on eight hits over 13 innings as the Phils won both on the road, including a 6-1 rout on May 4. With Blanton tossing, Philadelphia is on streaks of 17-8 overall and 12-4 at home.
When the Cards give the ball to Wellemeyer, they are on “under” streaks of 8-3 on the road, 6-2-1 on Sunday, 11-3 against winning teams and 5-1 when he’s a road ‘dog. With Blanton pitching, the Phillies are on “under” runs of 6-1 at home, 4-0-1 overall, 5-1 as a home favorite, 5-1 against the N.L. Central and 5-0 when he gets four days of rest.
As a team, St. Louis is on “under” runs of 8-2 overall, 5-2 on the road, 7-1 against right-handed starters and 6-2 on the road against teams with winning marks. Also, Philadelphia is on “under” streaks of 31-15-2 against the N.L. Central, 23-10-2 following a win, 6-1 in the third game of a series and 5-0 on Sundays. Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five series meetings in Philly, the lone exception being Saturday’s game that flew over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (50-48) at Detroit (52-44)
Looking to make it a four-game sweep over the rival White Sox, the Tigers send right-hander Rick Porcello (9-6, 4.40 ERA) to the mound opposite Chicago lefty Clayton Richard (3-3, 5.00) at Comerica Park in Detroit in a nationally televised contest.
The Tigers followed Friday’s doubleheader sweep with a 4-3 extra-inning victory Saturday to run their record to 7-4 against the White Sox this season, including 4-1 in the Motor City.
Chicago is on several slides, including 0-4 on the road, 17-37 on the road against teams with winning records, 4-9 on Sundays, 5-17 in the fourth game of a series, 0-7 on the road against right-handed starters and 0-4 against the A.L. Central. Meanwhile, Detroit is on a slew of positive streaks that include 16-5 at home, 20-7 as a home favorite, 11-4 on Sundays, 14-3 at home against southpaws and 4-0 against the A.L. Central.
Richard is 0-2 in his last three games with a 7.82 ERA but he did look good Tuesday against the Rays, allowing just one run on four hits in eight innings of a 3-2 loss. However, prior to that start he’s allowed five runs or more in five straight outings, three of which he didn’t get past the fourth inning. He faced the Tigers on June 8 and gave up three runs on five hits in 4.2 innings of a 5-4 loss. With Richard on the hill, the White Sox are on slides of 1-4 on the road against winning teams and 3-7 when they’ve lost the previous game.
Porcello has also struggled of late, going 1-2 in his last three outings with a 9.45 ERA. On Tuesday, Seattle knocked him around for five runs on nine hits in five innings, but his offense bailed him out with a 9-7 win. He’s given up five runs or more in three of his last four outings, three of which were losses. With Porcello pitching, the Tigers are on streaks of 10-3 overall, 6-1 when he’s a home favorite, 4-1 when he gets four days of rest and 4-1 when he faces a winning team.
When Richard toes the rubber, Chicago has topped the total in four of six overall, four of seven as a road ‘dog and four of six against the A.L. Central. As a team, the White sox are on “under” runs of 7-0 overall, 6-0 as a ‘dog, 5-0 against right-handed starters and 4-1 on the road against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Tigers are on “under” streaks of 4-1 when Porcello faces the A.L. Central, 42-18 overall, 5-1 on Sundays, 10-1 against winning teams, 21-8-1 against the A.L. Central and 36-16-2 following a win.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 44-20-4 in the last 68 clashes in Detroit.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DETROIT and UNDER
DUNKEL
Pittsburgh at Arizona
The Diamondbacks look to build on their 4-0 record in Max Scherzer's last 4 starts as a favorite between -150 and -200. Arizona is the pick (-175) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-175).
Game 901-902: St. Louis at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 15.427; Philadelphia (Blanton) 16.362
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-160); 10
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-160); Over
Game 903-904: San Diego at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Gaudin) 13.361; Washington (Lannan) 14.992
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-145); Over
Game 905-906: NY Mets at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hernandez) 14.637; Houston (Moehler) 15.123
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Houston (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-140); Over
Game 907-908: Atlanta at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 14.139; Milwaukee (Looper) 15.381
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+110); Under
Game 909-910: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Owings) 14.383; Cubs (Harden) 15.366
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-180); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-180); N/A
Game 911-912: San Francisco at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sadowski) 14.850; Colorado (Cook) 16.926
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-200); Over
Game 913-914: Pittsburgh at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Vazquez) 15.249; Arizona (Scherzer) 15.493
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-175); Over
Game 915-916: Florida at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 14.883; LA Dodgers (Schmidt) 16.559
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-130); Under
Game 917-918: Tampa Bay at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.698; Toronto (Cecil) 14.682
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120); Over
Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Richard) 15.679; Detroit (Porcello) 14.618
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: White Sox (+135); Under
Game 921-922: Oakland at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 16.141; NY Yankees (Mitre) 16.441
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); Over
Game 923-924: Baltimore at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hernandez) 14.461; Boston (Smoltz) 15.627
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-170); Over
Game 925-926: Texas at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Millwood) 15.259; Kansas City (Ponson) 14.418
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150); Under
Game 927-928: Cleveland at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Lee) 14.976; Seattle (Vargas) 15.374
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 929-930: Minnesota at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Swarzak) 15.956; LA Angels (Santana) 16.421
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-140); Under
WNBA
Sacramento at Washington
The Monarchs look to take advantage of a Washington team that is just 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games against teams with a losing record. Sacramento is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by just 3. Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+5).
Game 651-652: Phoenix at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 116.194; New York 107.713
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 8 1/2; 177
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3; 174
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3); Over
Game 653-654: Sacramento at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 106.523; Washington 109.406
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 3; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 5; 150
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+5); Over
THE SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, 1:07PM ET
Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 4-9 SU in its last 12 games at home
Toronto is 6-17 SU in its last 22 games
Pick: Toronto
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers, 7:10PM ET
Atlanta is 5-3 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 6 games
Milwaukee is 2-4 SU in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 2-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pick: Milwaukee
New York Mets at Houston Astros, 2:05PM ET
NY Mets are 1-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
NY Mets are 2-4 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 6-3 SU in its last 8 games when playing NY Mets
Pick: NY Mets
Vernon Croy
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Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Texas Rangers
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Take the Texas Rangers on the Moneyline, Texas has the superior pitcher on the mound here Sunday afternoon and Kevin Millwood (9-7, 3.44 ERA) was solid in his last outing which was against a very good Red Sox ball club where he allowed just 6 hits and 2 earned runs over 6 innings. Sidney Ponson (1-6, 7.63) was hit hard in his last outing where he gave up 8 hits and 6 earned runs over just 5 innings against the Angels and I look for the rangers to hit him hard Sunday. The Royals bullpen has struggled this season at home with an ERA of 5.59 and the Royals are just 0-6 in Ponson's last 6 starts as an underdog. The Royals are just 6-20 in their last 26 games in game 3 of a series and they are just 9-23 in their last 32 home games. Take the Texas Rangers Sunday afternoon.
Craig Trapp
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New York Mets vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
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These two teams have been heading in opposite directions for the past month. The Mets evened up the series yesterday but still have only won 3 of last 10 games. Today's pitching matchup heavily favors HOU as they send Moeller to the mound. His ERA is not great for the season but he is reliable and keeps his team in the game. He averages 6 innings a game and 3 ER over his last 10 starts. In that stretch HOU won 7 of his 10 starts. Opposing him today is Hernandez for the METS. Yes you can say he is consistent also but he is consistently bad. He has lost 4 of his last 5 starts allowing over 4 runs per game and only lasting 5 innings per game. At the plate the Astros have a big advantage with most of the NYM starters from opening day on the sideline. The Astros play very well at home and the NYM are just trying to survive. Hernandez gets shelled today and HOU wins another series. SCORE HOU 9 - NYM 3
LT Profits
New York Yankees -1.5
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The New York Yankees had their eight-game winning streak snapped by the Oakland Athletics here at Yankee Stadium yesterday, but we look for the Bronx Bombers to begin a new streak in emphatic fashion today.
After all, the Yankees are still averaging 5.55 runs per game in their new home, while the light hitting Athletics are averaging only 3.92 runs per game on the road. Now Oakland starter Dallas Braden actually own a nice 3.40 ERA in 124.1 innings, but he has rarely faced an offense as potent as this.
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The last time he faced a hot offense, he was lit up for six runs and 10 hits by the LA Angels two starts back. He will find pitching in this hitter-friendly park far more difficult than pitching in the spacious McAfee Coliseum in Oakland that he calls home.
Granted, Sergio Mitre is a bit of an unknown in the American League, but he did have some nice moment for the Florida Marlins in the National League and he did pitch respectably in his Yankee debut, allowing just three earned runs in 5.2 innings of a 6-4 win over the Baltimore Orioles. Mitre can be tough his first time through the AL, and he is facing an Oakland lineup that is hitting only .246 on the road for the entire season.
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Look for the Yankees to bounce back strong from that loss yesterday, giving Mitre enough run support to come away with the Run Line victory at a decent price.
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Pick: Yankees -1.5
Red Dog Sports
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Texas at Kansas City
Play: Under 9.5
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Kevin Millwood has 5 overs and 13 unders this year and the Rangers have 43 unders, 15 overs and 1 push in their last 59 games. Look for Texas and KC to play an under on Sunday afternoon as Texas has played plenty of unders this season.
Tom Freese
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Florida at Los Angeles
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Florida starter Chris Volstad has a better than 8-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. Florida is 8-3 in Game 3 of a series. The Marlins are 5-1 their last 6 road games and they are 11-5 in the last road starts made by Volstad. I'm not sure that pitcher Jason Schmidt was a good pick up for the Dodgers. Schmidt has a history of health issues. The Dodgers are 3-7 at home vs. the Marlins. PLAY ON FLORIDA +
Marc Lawrence
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St Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Phillies and Cardinals put the wraps on this three-game series when Joe Blanton opposes Todd Wellemeyer in Philadelphia this afternoon. Blanton checks in with wins in each of his last three team starts and is also 5-0 in his last five starts in July. Meanwhile, Wellemeyer is 1-5 with a 4.50 ERA in his career starts in this series. With that we'll stay at home with the Phillies here today.
Jimmy The Moose
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Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
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The White Sox have lose 3 in a row, all 3 losses have been to Detroit. In their last 54 road games vs. a team with a winning record Chicago is 17-37. The White Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a right-handed starter. Chicago has lost 4 straight road games. In Richards last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record the White Sox are 1-4. Detroit is 16-5 in their last 21 home games. In their last 17 home games vs. a left-handed starter the Tigers are 14-3. Detroit has won 6 of Porcello's last 7 home starts. In his last 13 starts the Tigers are 10-3. Detroit is the hotter team and will take this one easily. Play on the Detroit Tigers -.
Matt Fargo
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Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
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Derek Lowe has tossed three straight quality outings and now is the time to go against him. He has been up and down and remains an overpriced pitcher in my opinion. After a brilliant start to the season, it has been a struggle of late despite coming off those three quality starts. Before that, he went 1-4 with an 8.61 ERA in his previous five starts. Currently, his ERA, WHIP and BAA are the highest they have been since 2004 which was his final season in Boston. He is doing nothing special on the road with a 4.68 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 10 starts with the Braves going 5-5 in those games. The Braves are 3-5 in Lowes last eight starts following a quality outing in his last game. Braden Looper has had his struggles this season as well but he is coming off one of his best starts this season in his last outing. He tossed seven shutout innings against the Pirates and gave up only four hits and it was his longest outing since May 29th. He is 4-1 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.25 WHIP at home compared to a 5-3 record with a 5.06 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road. He has been getting solid run support all season and that is always a benefit as he is receiving 5.8 rpg overall and 5.7 rpg in his 11 home starts with the Brewers going 7-4 in those games. He faced Atlanta twice last season with Milwaukee winning both games after posting quality outings in both and putting a combined 3.21 ERA in those games. The Braves are 11-25 in their last 36 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150 while the Brewers are 5-1 in Loopers last six home starts against a team with a winning record.
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3* Milwaukee Brewers
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on LA Dodgers -130
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Schmidt battled pretty well in his first start back to pick up a win against the Reds 6 days ago. I expect him to show major improvements today against a team he has owned. Schmidt is 9-0 when starting against Florida in his career with an ERA of 3.28 and a WHIP of 1.169. The Dodgers have won 6 of their last 7 games and are an impressive 45-16 in their last 61 games as a home favorite. The Fish send Volstad to the hill and they are only 3-7 in his last 10 starts. But here's the clincher: the are 0-9 in his last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. It's hard to pass up the best team in baseball at this price. I'll play the Dodgers for a unit today.
Bob Harvey
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels
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Get the brooms ready for the Angels who are going to finish off a four-game sweep of the Twins at the Big A.
Does anyone need to convincing about how good this Angel team is? The Halo’s started the season without injured pitchers John Lackey and Ervin Santana. There was the tragic loss of rookie Nick Adenhart and the season ending injury to set-up man Scott Shields. The Angels are presently without Tori Hunter and Vlad Guerrero who are both on the DL. Juan Rivera hasn’t played for week and on and on it goes. With all that adversity the Angels are still kicking butts and taking names. They’ve won eight in a row, nine of their last ten and 12 of their past 13. In those 13 games the Angels have been without Hunter and Guerrero and have actually picked up the pace. They’ve scored 100 runs (7.7 per game) and are batting .326 as a team with double-digit hit totals in nine of those 13. The Angels have made things look easy. They’re batting .401 with runners in scoring position over the past 13 games.
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The Twins are reeling. After Saturday’s 11-5 loss, a game in which the Angels scored nine-runs in the fourth, Minnesota has lost five of the six games on their west coast and they’ve been outscored 39-14 during their four-game losing streak. Right now the Twins and for that matter the American League can’t slow down this Angel jugggernaut.
Not that pitching has made much of a difference in this series, for either team, but Ervin Santana will go for Anaheim whil rookie Anthony Swarzak goes for the Twins. Santana, who is struggling to regain his all-star form of a year ago, is 3-5 on the year with an sky high ERA of 6.79. Swarzak comes in with a 2-3 ledger and a 4.15 ERA.
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The Angels have abused Twins pitching in this series. Minnesota’s starters, relievers and even closer Joe Nathan have all struggled leaving manager Ron Gardenhire scratching his head.
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The way the Angels are hitting right now it’s tough to imagine anyone this side of Toronto being able to shut them down. That’s why there going to get the nod (again) in the series finale.
Rob Vinciletti
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Under 9
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In this game there are a bevy of solid under angle.In this piece we will examine a few of them.Tampa has gone under 21 of 30 in day games this year,13 of 20 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5.On Saturday they broke an 8 game under streak with their late 10-9 comeback win.Toronto has gone under 23 of 32 times in Division play this year,5 of 6 times as a home dog from +100 to +125 and have gone under in 6 of the previous 8 games.In this series over the last 3 years in Toronto the under has cashed 17 of 23 times.The Pitching matchup is a good one.J.Niemann one of this years most underrated pitchers goes today in Toronto.In his first start their, early in the year he was dominant baffling the Bluejay hitters,changing speeds like a 10 year pro,He finished up that day allowing just 1 run in 7+ innings.In his last 3 starts he has a 1.11 era and had been dominant when you consider his road record while playing in baseball toughest division.Toronto counters with Lefty B.Cecil.In Cecils home starts he has been good with a 3.68 era.He should do well against a Tampa team that has trouble scoring runs in day games.
Jr Tips
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WHITE SOX vs. TIGERS
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The first-place Tigers look to complete their first four-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox in almost 21 years tonight at Comerica Park.Detroit (52-44) swept a doubleheader Friday and rallied for a 4-3, 10-inning victory Saturday. Detroit has struggled to consistently produce runs at the plate, but veteran like Guillen coming back will make opposing pitchers more careful now when facing a lineup that also features All-Stars Miguel Cabrera, Brandon Inge and Curtis Granderson. The White Sox (50-48) look to bounce back while facing Detroit rookie Rick Porcello (9-6, 4.40 ERA) for the first time.Porcello made his first start since July 5, and allowed five runs and nine hits in five innings of a 9-7 win over Seattle on Tuesday. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 9.45 ERA in his last three starts and the White Sox counter with Clayton Richard (3-3, 5.00), who allowed one run and four hits in eight innings in his last outing against Tampa Bay. Richard is 0-2 with a 7.82 ERA in his last three starts and in his only start versus Detroit, the left-hander allowed three runs while walking five in 4 2/3 innings. The hot Detroit Tigers who have another big bat in their lineup will feast on the white Sox's 20 year old Rookie who uis giving up 10 runs a game in his last 3 starts although the Tigers starter will also struggle. Each team will need at least 8 runs to win this game.
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TAKE OVER 9 1/2