Jake Timlin
Take the Rockies minus the Run Line as they bury the Giants today.
Fresh off their 8-2 win last night the Rockies continue to shine having won 33 of their last 45 games. Well thanks to their ace in Cook who is 6-0 over his last 9 starts I fully expect for Colorado to continue their winning ways today as the build continue to build on their NL Wild Card lead.
For the Giants they counter with Sadowski who is making just his fifth start in his career and doing so with an ERA of 7.45 on the road this year. Meanwhile, for the Giants as a team they are struggling having lost 7 of their last 10 games, including 4 of their last 6 games on the road.
Simple, with Colorado going with their ace in Cook and doing so against a San Francisco offense that sucks right now I don’t see this game being close for long as Colorado will jump out to an early lead and never look back.
4♦ Colorado Rockies -1 ½
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
The Dodgers couldn’t quite get it done yesterday and end up costing us. That’s fine as I’m delivering today.
We’re coming at it as we’re taking the Run Line on the Phillies against the visiting Cardinals.
They’ve only met four times this season, but the Phillies have take 3 of those meetings and have owned the Cards in each of those matchups.
In their first two meetings this season the Phillies beat St. Louis by an average of 4 runs per game. And in yesterday’s meeting, Philadelphia destroyed the Cardinals 14-6.
Coming into today’s game the Phils have gone 16-3 their last 19 games. In that stretch, Philadelphia has outscored its opponents, on average, 6.5-3.2.
Also consider that Phillies scheduled starter Joe Blanton has pitched very strong lately. Philadelphia is 3-0 his last three starts and has outscored its opponents, on average, 3-1.
On the other side, the Cardinals’ Todd Wellemeyer has had his share of struggles. St. Louis is 0-3 his last three appearances and has lost by an average of 3.3 runs per game in that stretch.
Today, the Phillies will cruise to another win as the Run Line comes in easily in this one.
3♦ PHILLIES -1½
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the NY Yankees, on the run line, to beat the Oakland A's by at least two runs. I realize their eight-game winning streak was stopped yesterday at the hands of this same Oakland team, but they can easily start another eight-game streak today at home. This is easy. When you break it down, it's basic common sense: New York is good and Oakland isn't. The Yankees can hit and Oakland isn't very good. The Yankees have better starting pitching and play better defense. The only way Oakland wins this game or even keeps it within a few runs is if they get lucky or New York falls apart. Neither is going to happen. Sergio Mitre earned his first win of the season against Baltimore despite not pitching a gem. He was good, not great. But it's not going to matter today when the Yanks pound Dallas Braden. That's right... I"m going against Braden and his solid overall ERA because I'm not comfortable with what he's been doing lately. A 5.00 ERA over his last three starts was capped off by allowing six earned runs in four innings of work vs. the Angels. Since Yankee Stadium is now a launching pad for long balls, you might very well see the Yanks finish today's game with at least three themselves. Yanks roll, 8-4 and get the cash.
2♦ NY YANKEES -1½
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
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Rays starter Jeff Niemman has a perfect 9-0 team start record as a favorite this year and will look to put the finishing touches on a three-game sweep over a Toronto team that TB has dominated all season long, taking seven of eight in head to head play. Tampa Bay is 32-12 off a one run win, including 16-3 if that one run win came against a division foe. Niemann has also seen his team win each of his last seven starts, the last three of which, he's posted a 1.11 ERA.
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Play on: Tampa Bay
Michael Alexander
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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After a huge come from behind victory over the Blue Jays yesterday the Rays look complete the sweep of the series when they send right-hander Jeff Niemann to the hill. Neimann has been red hot having given up more then 3 runs once in his last 12 starts. In addition he is 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season and 8-1 (+8.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
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The Blue Jays must be wondering what they have to do to beat the Rays after blowing that 8-1 lead yesterday and it might not help their thinking today as they are only 11-22 (-12.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
MTi Sports
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New York Mets at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros
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The Astros are 20-4 as a favorite when they won by one run in their starter's last start, 19-5 in the last game of a three game series when they split the first two and 6-0 at home after allowing 6+ runs. The Mets are 0-6 on the road after scoring 6+ runs and winning. Consider Houston.
Ron Raymond
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ARI / PIT Over 9
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When ARIZONA played as a home team - During Last 5 Years - Won Last Game by 7 Runs; the OVER is 10-2-0 for the Dbacks in this role the L5Y. Play the OVER in todays Pirates vs. Diamondbacks game.
BEN BURNS
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San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Washington Nationals
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It's not often that the Nationals can call themselves the "hotter" team but that's the case this afternoon. With yesterday's 13-1 victory, the Nats have now won three of their last five. Conversely, the Padres have now lost six of their last seven and eight of their last 10. They're a money-burning 4-18 for the month.
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Chad Gaudin looks to stop the bleeding for San Diego. Gaudin's last start would be considered a "quality start," as he allowed three runs in six innings. However, the Padres still lost that game and he still allowed 11 runners (9 hits, 2 walks) to reach base. In other words, he wasn't exactly dominant. For the season, despite some impressive strikeout numbers, he's 4-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 16 starts, including a 4.78 ERA in his 10 road starts.
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While Gaudin was "ok" last time out, Lannan was outstanding. Some of you will recall that I had a big play on the Nationals in Lannan's last start - a 4-0 victory over the Mets. All Lannan did was toss a complete game shutout. While one might think that it's unusual for a Washington pitcher to deliver that type of strong performance, note that Lannan's been "getting it done" at home all season long. In fact, in 11 starts here, he's gone 4-1 with a superb 1.91 ERA and 1.143 WHIP, averaging better than seven innings in those games. It's also worth mentioning that Lannan has a 2.08 ERA in two starts vs. the Padres. Consider Washington
John Ryan
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Cubs as they face Cincinnati set to start at 2:20 EST. There are a supporting cast of angles for this play. Note that Owings is just 8-22 (-14.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Cubs are a solid 30-11 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in home games versus a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons. Low scoring game sets the stage for this play noting the Reds are just 19-33 (-13.0 Units) against the money line after 1 or more consecutive unders this season. Owings has not pitched well of late and has posted a horrid 9.00 ERA and a 1.937 WHIP. In 10 road starts he has posted a 6.46 ERA and a 1.748 WHIP. Harden ahs posted a 2.50 ERA over his last 3 starts. Owens is winless going 0-3 against the Cubs in his career while Harden is perfect at 3-0 in his career versus the Reds. Owings has a pretty darn good fastball, but he has trouble getting strike one with that pitch. He throws FB 69%, slider 22%, change 8%. He’ll use the change more at 13% to LH batters instead of the slider. He gets into trouble hanging that pitch, especially to LH hitters. Look for the Cubs hitters to work the count and get favorable counts that they can look for their pitch to drive. Take the Cubs.
Yankee Capper
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Washington Nationals -140
Houston Astros -145
LA Angels -140
LA Dodgers -130
John Ryan
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston as they face Baltimore set to start at 1:35 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 86-20 making 52.2 units since 1997. Play on all favorites with a money line of -150 or more and is below average hitting team batting <=.265) against a good AL starting pitcher posting a season ERA <=4.20 + in the second half of the season. Baltimore is just 17-43 (-20.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 6-27 (-17.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team posting a win percentage of 54% to 62% in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 0-11 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season; 0-14 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus poor defensive catchers allowing 0.85 + SB's/game this season. Boston is a stout 23-4 (+17.7 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is just 3-19 (-13.9 Units) against the money line as a dog of +150 or more this season. The bullpens of these two teams are near complete opposites with Boston posting a season ERA of 3.22 and home ERA of 3.23 while Baltimore sports a season ERA of 4.42 and a terrible 5.21 ERA in road games. Orioles just do not play well at Fenway – not many teams do in fact – and are just 6-25 since the start of 2006 and winless this season. Take Boston.
Greg Daraban
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Cleveland at Seattle
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Tribe has won 3 straight. They are 13 back of the Tigers.The Mariners all of a sudden have slipped back of LA 7.5 games. All Star starter from 2008 still trying find his best stuff.Seattle avoids the sweep.
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Take Seattle
Rob Homyak
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Minnesota Twins at LA Angels of Anaheim
5 Units on LA Angels of Anaheim
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The record is 27 Wins and 5 Losses for the last two seasons (+20.95 units)
LA ANGELS are 55-32 (+22.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
LA ANGELS are 35-22 (+12.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
Head to Head
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Twins are 8-23 in the last 31 meetings in Los Angeles.
Umpire Trends - Angel Hernandez
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Angels are 16-5 in their last 21 games with Hernandez behind home plate.
Home team is 10-4 in Hernandezs last 14 Sunday games behind home plate.
Home team is 56-24 in Hernandezs last 80 games behind home plate.
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Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games with Hernandez behind home plate.