Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 28

Marc Lawrence

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Kansas City Royals

When the Royals send Bruce Chen to the hill against Hector Santiago and the White Sox at Comiskey Park Sunday afternoon, Kansas City will do so knowing Chen is 4-1 with a 2.09 ERA in his last five team starts in this park. On the other side of the coin, Santiago enters 3-10 his last thirteen overall team starts, including 0-5 his last five. With that look for the Royals to improve to 10-4 in their last fourteen games in this park here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.

Hollywood Sports

Panama at USA
PLAY: USA

Panama is feeling very good about themselves after defeating Mexico for the second time in these games -- and for just the second time in their national team's history -- with their 2-1 victory in the Semifinals. While Panama will feel little pressure in this game, they also will not have the same sense of urgency as the Americans will have playing in front of a very partisan crown in Chicago's Soldier Field. This USA team is on a roll having won ten straight contests overall while going a perfect 5-0 in these games. And with head coach Jurgen Klingsmann suspended for this contest after expressing displeasure with the referees failure to keep a chippy Honduras team in check, look for the USA players to have a chip on their shoulder to prove that they can win this Finals match without their revered German coach. Take the USA with the handicapped money line.

Rocketman

Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco
Play: Chicago Cubs +139

The Chicago Cubs travel to San Francisco to take on the Giants on Sunday afternoon. San Francisco is 17-29 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. San Francisco has lost five of their past six games overall. The Cubs haven't done bad on the road allowing only 3.9 runs per game this season and allowing opposing teams a combined team batting average of only .229. San Francisco is scoring only 2.6 runs per game their past seven games overall. San Francisco is allowing 5.7 runs per game their past seven games overall where opposing teams are batting a combined .307 during that time. Travis Wood has pitched great but lacked run support. He is 6-7 with a 2.95 ERA overall this year and has a 3.31 ERA on the road this season. He should get enough run support today facing Tim Lincecum as Tim is 5-10 with a 4.72 ERA overall this year, 3-4 with a 5.03 ERA at home this season and 1-1 with a 5.03 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago Cubs today!

Jimmy Boyd

Boston Red Sox +100

The Red Sox offense was struggling coming into this series against Baltimore, but they have really started to turn things around. Boston has performed exceptionally well against right-handed starters batting .278 and scoring an average of 5.2 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Orioles are struggling against left handed starters with a .256 batting average.

Jon Lester has had no problems getting strikeouts this year. He has 111 total this season, and 66 of those strikeouts have come on the road. Lester's ERA is substantially better than Baltimore's Jason Hammel. Lester has a 4.50 ERA overall while Hammel has posted a 5.20 ERA. At home Hammel has been horrible going 1-4 in eight starts with a 6.65 ERA.

Steve Rosen

Oakland A's -150

The Angels are 12 games back of Oakland in the American League West. The Athletics keep rolling along, winning 22 of their last 28 home games, and catcher Derek Norris has ended a lengthy slump by hitting .333 this month. Hanson lost his only start to Oakland this season and i expect the same result today. Parker has lowered his ERA in 15 consecutive starts, but he’s looking to end a streak of five straight no-decisions. The 24-year-old is 5-1 with a 2.39 ERA over his last 13 starts. He has won BOTH his starts against the Angels this season! The Angels have lost six of their last eight road games.

Rob Vinciletti

Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +115

Toronto fits a solid 88% system here that plays on certain home favorites that lost their last game and scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits with 1 or less errors, vs an opponent off an Upset road dog win as a dog of +140 or higher, Like Houston, that also scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits and played error free ball in the win. The Jays are averaging over 5 runs per game at home and 5.6 runs the past week. They have won 4 of 5 at home off a home favored loss at -140 or higher. Houston is 4-12 as a road dog of +140 or more if they won as a road dog in that range in their last game and scored 5 or more runs. The Astros are 1-10 this season as a road dog from +150 to +175, 1-6 of late vs losing teams, 4-16 in July and have lost 14 of 17 on Sunday. Houston has Young J. Cosart going and while he was solid in his recent starts he will be playing at a tough venue vs a stacked lineup in Toronto. The Jays counted with Redmond who should have an easier time here vs a limited Houston lineup. Take Toronto today.

Jeffrey Brandes

Tampa Bay Rays -145

Pitchers:
TAMPA BAY RAYS: Matt Moore, LHP 14-3, 3.17 ERA
NEW YORK YANKEES: Phil Hughes, RHP 4-9, 4.33 ERA

Tampa Bay beat the Yankees 1-0 yesterday. The Rays are 21-3 in their past 24 games. They've gone from last place in the AL East to first. Today the Rays give the ball to Matt Moore. In his last start, Moore picked up his 14th win of the season on Monday when he tossed a two-hit shutout at Fenway. He has won his last six starts. In those 6 games he has 44 strikeouts and just 20 hits allowed in 31 2/3 innings, posting a 1.99 ERA. In his last 3 starts he's 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA. He is 2-1 in three career starts at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees rank 21st in offense for the season. Phil Hughes is today's starter for the Yankees. Hughes was lifted after just 80 pitches on July 23 vs. the Rangers, as he allowed three runs (all unearned) over 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision. He's 0-2 in his last 3 starts with a 3.18 ERA. He's 1-5 in his last seven games.

Key Trends:
Tampa Bay is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games
NY Yankees are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games at home

Art Aronson

St. Louis vs. Atlanta
Play: Under 7½

Shelby Miller (10-6, 2.77 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Miller dominated the Phillies on Tuesday, giving up three hits and one walk while striking out six over six innings in his team's eventual 4-1 victory. Miller has been dominant this month, giving up a combined five runs over his last three starts. Miller will look to keep the string of great starts rolling throwing opposite Kris Medlen (6-10, 3.78 ERA) who is coming off his third straight loss on Tuesday vs. the Mets, giving up four runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out four over 5 1/3's innings of work in his team's eventual 4-1 setback. While he owns just a 3-5 record at Turner Field in ten starts this year, he sports a very respectable 3.26 ERA in that span; here's a perfect opportunity for Medlen to get off the schneid. These teams combined for just two total runs yesterday and with these competent starters going head to head in the finale of this three game set, all signs do indeed once again point to a lower scoring affair; consider a second look at the "under" in this one.

Alex Smart

Cincinnati Reds -111

Capuano the Dodgers starter today has struggled for a good part of this season and was in down form in his last outing allowing five earned runs and has done so in three of his last four trips to the hill and is 2-4 with a bloated 6.91 ERA in his last six home adventures. The veteran soutpaw in 16 career appearances (13 starts) against the Reds, is a less then impressive as is evident by 3-3 record along with a hefty 4.92 ERA. Meanwhile, Tony Cingrani, Reds starting hurler who is pitching in place of the injured Johnny Cueto, has been nothing but consistent for the Reds. Cingrani has not allowed more than three runs since May 4 and gave up two runs on three hits in seven innings in his only loss of the season on July 9. Im betting he gives the Reds a good chance a slowing the hot LA Dodgers this afternoon, It must be noted that the Reds are 20-9 in their last 29 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.Reds and are 39-18 in their last 57 games as a road favorite.Dodgers are 1-5 in Capuanos last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Bruce Marshall

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Cincinnati Reds

We obviously have to pick our sports carefully if going against the Dodgers these days. But we have less hesitation to do so when Chris Capuano takes the mound, as the ex-Dookie has been hit hard in recent outings. How hard? Try five runs allowed three times in his last four starts, in which he has allowed 30 hits in 18 2/3IP with a 7.23 ERA. Meanwhile, ex-Rice Owl Tony Cingrani is looking like a keeper in the Reds rotation, allowing two runs or fewer in his last four starts (2.70 ERA that span), with Cincy winning three of those decisions.

Sports Experts 17

Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
Pick: Miami Marlins

Final game of the series and the end of a nightmare for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Losing the first game of the with his best pitcher J. Locke and last night having trouble all the way until the six inning to win the game 7-4, today they go for the third game with Gerrit Cole 5-3 and try to finish this and come back home on Monday to face the Cardinals. This is not going to be easy for the Pirates today, will be so complicated because the Marlins are the best team in the league playing the third game of the series against good teams and with Jose Fernandez in the mount and his 2.74 era things will be so difficult and the Pirates will come back to Pittsburgh losing 2 out of 3 to the worst team in the league.

Jim Feist

Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants
Pick: Chicago Cubs

The Giants haven't looked like the defending champs, below .500 with all kinds of problems. One problems is Tim Lincecum (5-10, 4.73 ERA), with an ERA over 5 his last three starts. after throwing a no-hitter in his last start July 13, the Giants right-hander delivered one of his worst starts of the season Monday, allowing eight earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. The Giants are on an 8-18 run, 3-7 in their last 10 home games. chicago is in town with lefty Travis Wood (2.95 ERA), a fine arm allowing only 97 hits in 128 innings. The feisty Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series and a good bounce back team, 10-2 following a loss.

Bryan Power

San Diego vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona

I won w/ Arizona Friday. I won w/ San Diego Saturday. I'll go back to the D'backs at home in Sunday's finale as the teams play a rubber match of a three-game set that so far has had two very different results. After Arizona took the opener by a score of 10-0, the Padres came back last night & prevailed 12-3....

With Pat Corbin on the hill this afternoon, you have to like Arizona's chances. Corbin comes in w/ a phenomenal 18-2 team start record, which is the best in baseball. He's 12-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.005 WHIP. Here at home, he's yet to taste defeat, going 8-0 in 11 starts (10-1 TSR) w/ a 1.54 ERA and 0.987 WHIP. Corbin has won his last three starts overall, allowing just one earned run each time out. How's that for a 2013 resume?

Before breaking loose for 12 runs last night, the Padres were dominated in the series opener, getting outhit 17-3. I liked the pitching matchup for them Saturday, but clearly not today. Despite yesterday's win, this is not a strong road team (20-35 SU for the year), including a 5-13 mark as an underdog of +150 or higher on the money line. San Diego is still just 7-16 in the month of July. Arizona is 14-3 as a ML favorite of -150 or higher.

CRAIG DAVIS

Today's free play is on the Marlins over the Pittsburgh Pirates in what promises to be a good pitching matchup.

Jose Fernandez (6-5, 2.74 ERA) hasn't missed a beat after a solid first half of the season, coming out of the All Star break with a couple of dominant performances.

He K'd eight while holding the Rockies to just two earned runs on five hits over seven innings in a 4-2 win over Colorado.

In fact, he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his starts (9 total) and the Fish have won seven of his starts. Yeah, he's been that good.

Fernandez is 4-2 with a 1.82 ERA and 59 strikeouts over his last 59 1/3 innings and I look for that to continue today.

Pittsburgh's offense hasn't been the same since the break and I expect the Marlins to get some revenge for yesterday's loss.

Take the Miami Marlins as your free play of the day.

3* MIAMI