CHRIS JORDAN
Are you serious with this line on the Pittsburgh Pirates, with Gerrit Cole, against the Miami Marlins? I have no problem laying this number, as I think the young star of the rotation will dominate the Marlins.
Though Cole has done most of his fine work at home, make note the right-handed craftsman has been virtually untouchable in a pair of road starts this season, winning both while allowing only six hits in 13- 1/3 innings (.133 opponents average). He's lasted seven frames in two of his last three starts, and today he gets the futile Marlins. Miami has the worst batting average in baseball, a bleak .233, and ranks dead last with 325 runs.
Take Pittsburgh, and list Cole.
5* PITTSBURGH
BRAD WILTON
Your Sunday comp play is for the runs to once again be at a premium in the Rays-Yankees finale.
1-0 was your final tally on Saturday as New York was held to just 2 hits. They may not get many more on Sunday when they face the red-hot Matt Moore who has allowed just 4 earned runs his last 35+ innings pitched, and the Under has come in the last 3 times he has hit the mound.
The Yankees will go with Phil Hughes who despite a 4-9 season record has actually been pitching quite well, allowing 2 runs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts.
The Under has gone 6-1-1 the last 8 times Hughes has been called to the hill.
Tampa is on a 21-7-1 overall Under run their last 29 games.
Tampa and New York hold low again on Sunday.
2* TAMPA BAY-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
SCOTT DELANEY
I'm going to side with the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East rivals' series-finale today on 161st Street in the Bronx.
And in this one, I want you listing ONLY Matt Moore, Tampa Bay's No. 1 starter right now, even though I think David Price is still its best pitcher. Moore, who is 14-3 on the year, will be out to follow in Detroit Tigers starter Max Scherzer's footsteps, and earn victory No. 15. He rolls in after a solid victory of American League East-leader Boston last Monday, when he tossed a two-hit shutout at Fenway. One historic ballpark down, why not a second?
The crafty left-hander has won his last six starts, a feat that is easily attributed to his pitching efficiency and an arsenal he's utilized and commanded very well this season. Moore uses his 92- to 95-mile-per-hour fastball exceptionally well in a count, climbing the ladder late in the count for strikeouts. He complements his fastball with a power curveball that has plus-potential, and also turns to an excellent changeup that sinks and runs from righties.
With a 2-1 mark in three career starts at Yankee Stadium, not to mention an overall 4-2 record against the Bronx Bombers, I say his confidence will run high and he'll get the win on the road. Take the Rays and list Moore only.
1* TAMPA BAY
JEFF BENTON
Your Sunday freebie will be to back the Tampa Bay Rays as they put the wraps on a 3-game sweep in the Bronx over the slumping Yankees.
Not too many teams hotter than Tampa these days, as Saturday's 1-0 win was their 9th in their last 10 games, and improved them to 24-5 their last 29 games, as the Rays have seized first place in the A.L. East and sure look like they are not in any hurry in giving it back.
New York meanwhile has dropped 8 of their last 11 games, and they have also lost 5 of the last 7 season series meetings against Tampa Bay.
Matt Moore owns a 14-3 record this year, and is 2-0 in his 3 starts this year against the Yankees.
Phil Hughes is just 4-9 for the year, and his ERA at Yankee Stadium is well over 5.
Hard to find a reason to go against the Rays right now, so lay it with Tampa to complete the sweep.
3* TAMPA BAY -1.5
BRETT ATKINS
My free winner for Sunday is on the Boston Red Sox over the Baltimore Orioles, and I want you listing Jon Lester over Jason Hammel in this American League East clash.
The line is awfully cheap in this game, as Lester was extremely sharp in his most recent outing, striking out eight while allowing two runs over 6-1/3 innings en route to earning the win over the streaking Tampa Bay Rays. Lester is an impressive 14-2 with a 2.86 ERA in his career against the Orioles, so confidence should be on high.
Meanwhile, Hammel has struggled all season, and is lucky to have a .500 record (7-7), while he's nursing a 5.20 ERA. He comes into this one after allowing three runs on 10 hits and four walks in a loss to the Royals last Tuesday.
List both pitchers and play the Red Sox.
2* BOSTON
Matt Fargo
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
Atlanta will be going for the clean sweep tonight against St. Louis and it is getting a solid price here based on recent results from the starting pitchers. The Braves improved to 33-15 at home with their 2-0 victory on Saturday and that home record is the best in baseball yet they come into this game as the underdog. The pitching of Kris Medlen of late has something to do with that. He closed the first half of the season by allowing 10 runs in 9.1 innings over his last two starts and then opened the second half with another poor outing as he allowed four runs in 5.1 innings at the Mets. For the most part though he has been solid at home with a 3.26 ERA in 10 starts, six of which have been quality outings and going back, the Braves are 18-6 in their last 24 home starts. St. Louis has seen its lead shrink to 1.5 games over the Pirates in the National League Central so while this is a big game, a four-game series at Pittsburgh starting Monday may be holding more focus right now. The Cardinals are still a very solid eight games over .500 on the road but are 1-7 in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. The sensational season from Shelby Miller is also playing a role in this price. He has a 2.77 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 19 starts but his home/road splits tell a different story. In 10 home starts, he has a 1.74 ERA and 0.92 WHIP but in nine road starts, he has a 4.07 ERA and 1.32 WHIP and that is a significant differential. The Braves have won six straight games as home underdogs and they keep that streak alive here.
Jeff Alexander
Cincinnati Reds -111
The Reds have the edge on the pitcher's mound with Tony Cingrani, who's 4-1 (8-3 on the moneyline) with a 2.98 ERA in 11 starts. The Reds have won five of his seven road starts, including each of his last two. LA's Chris Capuano is just 3-6 (5-7 on the moneyline) with a 5.25 ERA in 12 starts. The Dodgers have dropped five of his last seven starts at home where he has a 6.92 ERA this season. The Reds are a terrific 39-18 in their last 57 games as a road favorite. We'll bet Cincy.
Dave Price
Texas Rangers -105
The Rangers have dropped the first two games of this series but are still showing value in this bounce back spot considering they are 17-6 in their last 23 games after losing the first two games of a series and 41-19 in their last 60 Game 3s of a series. The Rangers are also 14-6 in their last 20 games in Cleveland. Texas has been a quality investment with Ogando on the hill. The Rangers are 4-1 in his last 5 starts, 8-3 in his last 11 starts as a favorite, 9-2 in his last 11 starts versus the American League Central, 4-0 in his last 4 road starts versus a team with a winning record and 6-0 in his last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. Ogando is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in a pair of starts versus Cleveland. Jimenez has been been solid for Cleveland, but he hasn't been nearly as good at home where he has a 6.09 ERA. He's also lost 2 of his last 3 starts versus Texas. Take Texas.
Will Rogers
Philadelphia vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
I was actually able to cash the Phillies on the Run Line Friday despite the fact that all they scored was a single unearned run. Needless to say, things were much worse yesterday (I laid off) as they got destroyed 10-0 by the Tigers, sending them to a season-high seventh straight defeat. Today should be just as ugly.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Rick Porcello - The Tigers starter comes in having not allowed a single run in two of his past three starts. His ERA during that time is 1.35 and more importantly the team has won all three starts. He should have no problem here with a badly slumping Phillies offense. Porcello allowed only four hits in seven innings the last time we saw him, a 6-2 road win over the Chicago White Sox. He's also done quite well for himself at home in Interleague Play, going 2-1 with a 2.54 ERA his last four starts vs. the National League here at Comerica Park.
2. Slumping Phillies - You could make the case that no team in baseball has been in a worse slump of late as over the last seven games, the Phillies are batting just .191 and have scored only 10 runs. Yesterday marked the fifth time in the last six games that they were held to one run or less. They had only two hits yesterday. It certainly doesn't help that both Ryan Howard and Dominic Brown are currently injured and unavailable.
3. X-Factor - Yes, the juice is high, but did you know the Tigers are 35-8 as a home favorite of -175 to -250?
Steve Merril
Minnesota Twins +1½ -150
Two youngsters are on the mound in Seattle as the Mariners host the Twins. Erasmo Ramirez has given up 10 runs and 14 hits in his two starts this season for Seattle. His problem is that he has walked six batters in just over 10 innings of work. Ramirez is facing a Minnesota team that has taken two of three games so far in this series. Minnesota is averaging 4.4 runs per game against left-handed starters this season, and they should have Joe Mauer back in the lineup after he took Saturday off.
Kyle Gibson is 2-2 in five starts for Minnesota. He has pitched better as of late giving up just 2 earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Angels and Yankees. The Mariners have scored just 17 runs in their last six games. Seattle is 14-23 in day games while hitting .230 in those contests. Minnesota’s bullpen has a 2.83 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season. We see good value in taking Minnesota plus the runs in this game on Sunday afternoon.
Jesse Schule
LA Angels vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland
The Angels sit 12 games back of the division leading A's after losing back to back games in Oakland. They wrap up their series Sunday, in a matinee game at Overstock Coliseum.
Tommy Hanson will get the start for the Halos, and he's been a major bust this season. Hanson (4-2, 4.75 ERA) allowed just one run on four hits over 5 1/3 innings, not factoring in the decision in a 10-3 loss to the Twins his last time out. Prior to that he was torched for seven runs on six hits in just two innings in a no decision versus Seattle. Hanson allowed a pair of runs on four hits over six innings in an Angels loss in his only previous start versus Oakland this season.
The A's hand the ball to Jarrod Parker, who is undefeated in his last 10 starts. Parker (6-6, 3.79 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits over seven innnings, but was the victim of a blown save in an A's loss to Houston his last time out. He's 4-0 in his last 10 appearances, holding opponents to three runs or less in each of those games.
He's 1-0 with a 4.82 ERA in two starts versus the Angels this year. Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols and Mark Trumbo are a combined 5-for-40 with 15 strikeouts versus Parker in their respective careers.
The Angels have lost five of their last six on the road, and they appear to have another tough matchup here in Oakland today.
Dave Essler
Cardinals / Braves Over 7.5
Who would take an over on Sunday night! Well, we are, or I am. Miller has been around long enough for teams to have a better book on him, and although he's never faced the Braves, we've got two things working here. First, he's on a bigger stage, and second, away from home his ERA is 4.07 as opposed to 1.74 at home. With that in mind and the Braves at HOME, I simply don't see Atlanta not doing their part, and the Cardinals bullpen just isn't one I respect. Medlen is Medlen and should give up runs to the Cardinals, it's that simple. And of course, it's Paul Emmel behind the plate, who is simply an over machine when it comes to totals. He's 15-7 over this season and without even looking at the exact numbers, he was that or better last season. I am tempted to add the Braves later, too. At 8, if it goes there everywhere, it's still a push and not a loss, so yes, I would bet it anyway.
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CLEVELAND +100 over TexasFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rangers are wrongly being billed as the chalk here. Texas has lost the first two games of this series, they’ve dropped three in a row and they’ve lost eight of their past 10 games. Texas has been held to three runs or fewer in seven of its past 10 and they’ve been shut out completely in two of its last three games. Alexi Ogando has started just 11 games this season and comes in with a 4-2 record to go along with a 3.27 ERA. Those misleading numbers have him overpriced. Ogando’s strikeout rate is on a serious decline. He struck out 10 Astros in his season debut way back on April 3 but has struck out three batters or less in in all but four starts since. He also has a pedestrian 38%/43% groundball/fly-ball rate. Since May 1, covering just five starts, Ogando has walked seven and struck out 10. Ogando’s surface stats are complete fool’s gold, as he’s been the beneficiary of some extreme good fortune. When looking under the hood, we see a pitcher that is on the verge of getting pounded.
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The Indians bats are heating up again. They scored 10 times in Seattle on Thursday and followed that up with an 11-8 victory on Friday in the series opener. They only scored one time yesterday but they still won and it was against Yu Darvish. Ubaldo Jimenez has shown flashes from his Colorado ace days at times this season. He has a 62%/29% dominant start/disaster start split and his skills vs. LH bats have been some of the best in the game. Jimenez has only lost five times in 20 starts and the Tribe are 13-7 in those games. Jimenez has 100 K’s in 104 innings and if his control improves, which is the only sore spot in his profile, he is a serious threat to throw a gem. Because of surface stats, most bettors believe the Rangers have an edge on the hill today and the price reflects that. Our research suggests otherwise and that’s why you do not buy surface stats. We’ve all seen a lot of cars that look pretty on the outside but once you look under the hood, it’s a different story. That applies to Ogando here. Get in line.
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Philadelphia +208 over DETROITFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rick Porcello is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA over his last three starts and that makes him a premium “sell-high” target. We’ve seen this act before with Porcello. Every time he appears ready to take the next step in becoming a reliable starter, he hits a wall. Case in point was this year in back-to-back starts in mid-June against Minnesota and Cleveland in which he allowed one run combined in those two starts. What followed were back-to-back losses to the Orioles and Angels in which the Tigers lost 13-3 and 14-8 with Porcello surrendering 19 hits and 13 runs in 10 frames. At age 24, Porcello is just two innings short of 800 career innings over the last 4+ seasons. In his career, he has allowed 910 hits in 798 frames for a career BAA of .287. He’s always been inconsistent and hittable and he keeps reminding us that he’s not to be trusted as a heavy favorite against anyone because of his high percentage of disaster starts.
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It’s not customary for us to play on cold teams but the Phillies, who have dropped seven straight, certainly have a chance here. Remember, Philly was one of the hottest teams going into the break and Jonathan Pettibone is precisely the right guy to get them back on track. Pettibone rarely has a bad start. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in seven straight and three runs or fewer in 14 of his 17 starts. You would be hard-pressed to find another pitcher that has been as consistent as Pettibone and it’s even more impressive when you consider that he pitches half his games at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Pettibone has been taken yard just one time over his last six starts and just nine times the entire season. Pettibone has an elite groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 64%/15%/21% over his last five starts and has the poise out there of a season vet. No doubt the Tigers are a tough team to beat but there is far too much value on backing Pettibone and fading Porcello to pass this one up.
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MIAMI +105 over PittsburghFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Gerrit Cole’s first eight starts confirm what we saw from him in the minors this year before his call-up. He's succeeded so far on pinpoint control and a steady stream of groundballs. Cole's low strikeout rate (29 K’s in 49 IP) continues a trend seen at Triple-A this spring and continues to generate some skepticism from us. His xERA and skills aren't bad but don't yet suggest the top of the rotation starter he was projected to be as a first-round draft choice. True, Cole won his first four big league starts and that attracted some praise but he's hardly dominated opponents with a BAA of .260. It's important to remember that Cole got the call to the majors because of injuries and his command at Triple-A was below the benchmark we like to see for major-league starters. He also has a 25% line-drive rate and that’s a risky percentage to be playing around with. Cole’s skill set and inexperience say that he’s very likely to have several implosions in the second half and there’s some profit potential in fading him when he’s favored.
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The Marlins have been playing very competitive ball since May 31. In fact, Miami is 15-8 at home since then and they’re in a great spot to improve that record. Not only do the Fish have Jose Fernandez going but Pittsburgh has a huge, four-game series against the Cardinals starting tomorrow in Pittsburgh and the Bucs' focus figures to be on that series. The Pirates have not been home since the All-Star break and conclude their 10-game trip here. This is a day game after a night game and with that huge-sellout series on deck, don’t be surprised to see the Pirates rest a couple of key starters. Even if they do not, there is no question that Pittsburgh is looking forward to getting back home for its showdown with the Cardinals. Oh yeah, Jose Fernandez has an elite 2.74 ERA and 1.07 WHIP after his first 19 starts. Those numbers are supported by his elite skills that include 111 K’s in 112 innings and a 46% groundball rate that has increased to 52% over his last five starts. Wrong side favored.
Bob Balfe
Cleveland Indians -105
The Indians have been playing decent baseball while the Rangers have been cold with their bats. Jimenez has major potential and has fallen under the radar the last few years. Look for Cleveland to get a big home win today. Take the Indians
Billy Coleman
Houston / Toronto Under 9½
Jarred Cosart is pretty much an unknown at this time, but if its not broke don't fix it. In his first 2 Big League starts Cosart has an ERA of 0.60 including taking a "no hitter " into the 7th inning against Tampa. Todd Redmond has been very average for Toronto, but he is not facing the most powerhouse line up in the Astros today. Two high scoring affairs in the first two contests between these two this weekend, we will look for the tide to swing the other way today.