Wunderdog
Kansas City at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox -104
Bruce Chen has been great this season for the Royals, but let's not forget he's 36 years old and isn't likely to keep up this pace much longer. The problem for the Royals is their lack of run support. Over their past seven games, this team has produced just 3.3 runs per game. And they have struggled vs. left-handed pitchers all season long (3.3 runs per game in 29 games vs. southpaws). Since last season, the White Sox are 42-29 vs. AL teams that score under 4.3 runs per game. And the Royals simply don't get the job done as road chalk. They are 57-73 in this rare role as a road favorite of -100 to -150. I like Chicago in this one.
Indian Cowboy
St. Louis / Atlanta Over 7.5
The St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves, who both made the playoffs last year and both lead their divisions this year, cap off a three-game weekend series at Turner Field with a national TV bout Sunday night. Through Monday's action, St. Louis led the NL Central by a game and a half over Pittsburgh, while Atlanta led the NL East by seven games over Philly. St. Louis' menacing offense still packs plenty of punch, even without Matt Holliday, who just went on the disabled list. The Cardinals began the week boasting three batters in the Top 10 in the National League. Yadier Molina led the NL with a .336 average; teammate Allen Craig ranked second at .333, while batting a Major League-best .417 since June 20th; and Matt Carpenter ranked sixth at .323. That's not to mention Carlos Beltran, who just dropped out of the Top 10 but still ranked 13th at .306. On the whole the Cardinals ranked third in the Majors in scoring at just under five runs per game. The Braves, meanwhile, owned 29 come-from-behind victories this season at the start of the week, which led the National League. Atlanta has been adept at picking up key hits at key times, such as during a ninth-inning rally in a 2-1 victory over the Mets Monday night. The Braves have been a classic "under" play for a long time because of their stellar pitching, but this year Atlanta is making some noise with its bats. Freddie Freeman, fresh off a nice sophomore campaign, is hitting .311, and Jason Heyward just returned from a stint on the DL. Both those guys could be poised for big second halves. Brian McCann is hitting .290 with 13 homers, rookie Even Gattis has 14 dingers and Dan Uggla (19 homers), while erratic, is always a threat at the plate. Overall the Braves rank 12th at 4.3 RPG. And with Medlen and Miller expected to start Sunday, that should help keep the total from being too high. Add it all up, and we expect a Turner Field shoot-out on "Sunday Night Baseball".
John Ryan
St Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
The simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?43-18 mark for 71% winners since 2007. Play against road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (ST LOUIS) revenging a shutout loss to opponent and with a winning record on the season playing another winning record team. Atlanta is a solid 17-4 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in home games facing a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season; 17-4 (+11.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Moreover, Medlen is a perfect 13-0 (+13.0 Units) against the money line facing low power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record). The Braves have made a solid statement winning the first two games of this three-game series against the Cardinals, who own the best record in MLB. The Braves have limited the Cardinals offense to just 1 run in these two games. Chris Medlen will start for the Braves and he has struggled over his last three starts. However, the Braves bullpen is at full strength, especially for middle inning relief. I believe the Braves will complete the sweep the Cardinals today.
Joe Gavazzi
Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics
After losing 3-1 to Oakland on Saturday, the Angels are now on recent slides of 23-25 and 4-8 to fall 12 games behind Oakland for the Division lead. Hanson has dealt with bereavement time and forearm injury this season in posting a 4.75 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He is part of the issue that LAA has had with the bottom end of their rotation. Far prefer Oakland on a field where they are 33-15, 22-6 recently, and 19-6 following a win. Oakland enters on a positive surge of 41-21 winning the first 2 games of this series. At first glance it appears troublesome that the As have lost the last 5 starts by Parker. Yet a broader view reveals that Parker is personally 4-0 with a 2.17 ERA in his last 10 starts including an American League best .175 OBA.
Greg Shaker
Boston -108
The All Star Break is a great help to some pitchers and especially those that throw the ball hard and is recognized as a K Pitcher. That's Lester and it certainly did help him get back ontrack with an 8 K 0 BB performance verses the Rays his last time out. The best part about that effort is that it took just 96 heaves to get the job done and that means that he is likely to have another Live Arm for this contest today in Baltimore. He will be throwing at the Orioles weakest link with the O's possessing just a .236 BA verses Southpaws here at this park and most recently even worse than that in their last 10 games regardless of the venue. Boston's Pen is getting the job done right now so we can expect some good results by Boston pitchers throughout. The O's have lost 4 of their last 5 and the guy taking to the Hill is marginal at best. Teams have a .351 OBP verses this guy this year and he continues to give up a lot of Dingers. That's not so good here at The Yard and the fact is, Boston thrives on right handed pitching, plating 5.6 Per 9 this year verses those guys. Hammel is 1-2 with a 4.81 ERA in 11 games (five starts) against Boston. And let's not forget this. Baltimore is 1-8 the last 9 times Jason Hammel has started a game. Yes, that's true. I saw it.
Jack Jones
Colorado Rockies -176
The Milwaukee Brewers (43-60) are in a world of hurt for the rest of the season. They are without arguably their best three players right now in Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart. Also, Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez are playing banged up.
With the edge the Colorado Rockies have on the mound today, I'll gladly lay this juice and back them Sunday. Donovan Hand is 0-2 with a 3.41 ERA in 16 appearances this season, including 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two road starts for Milwaukee.
Jhoulys Chacin remains one of the most underrated starters in the league. Chacin is 9-5 with a 3.53 ERA in 19 starts this year, including 1-2 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. Chacin has allowed 4 earned runs over 13 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Milwaukee.
The Brewers are 0-12 (-13.4 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive overs this season. Milwaukee is 19-45 in its last 64 games as a road underdog. The Brewers are 15-36 in the last 51 meetings in Colorado, and 2-7 in their last 9 meetings with the Rockies overall. Bet the Rockies Sunday.
Andrew Lange
St. Louis -120 1st Half
Here we go again with another opportunity to fade Atlanta's Kris Medlen. Two weeks ago we took the plus price with Cincinnati and Bronson Arroyo as Medlen lasted only four innings and allowed nine hits and four runs. Since then he posted another sub-par start against the Mets: 5.1 IP, 7 hits, 4 ERs. I think Medlen's fall from grace is nothing more than the league seeing him a few times. He's a soft-tossing right hander whose change-up is 83 mph and fastball 89-90 mph. The St. Louis Cardinals have a gem in Shelby Miller who through 19 starts has done nothing but impress. Note that Miller is throwing harder than he was earlier this season. His fastball averaged 95-96 over his last three starts. The only downside to Miller is that it looks like the Cardinals are trying to preserve him for the postseason. Miller has topped 100 pitches only once over his last eight starts so expect a 6-inning ceiling on him tonight. Two good teams but it's hard to ignore the starting pitching mismatch. I played some Cardinals on the 5-inning line as well as their team total over.