Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 4,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
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When the Cubs send Ted Lilly to the hill against the Reds in the wrap-up of this four-game series at Wrigley Field this afternoon they will do so knowing Lilly in is terrific KW form with five walks and 29 strikeouts in his last five starts. He's also 4-1 in his last five team starts in July. While Cincinnati went 6-1 in Mike Leake's first seven team starts this season, they are just 3-5 in his last eight efforts of late. With that, we'll stay at home with Lilly and the Cubs here this afternoon.

Info Plays

3* on Seattle Mariners -111

Reasons the Mariners win:

1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (DETROIT) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL. This is a 47-10 ML System hitting 82.5% since 1997. This system is 5-1 this season.

2.) Cliff Lee. The lefty is 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.920 WHIP this season. The Mariners have won 8 of his 12 starts. Bet Seattle on the road.

Rob Vinciletti

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Cincinnati Reds +1½

The Reds are 7-2 as a road dog in this range and are scoring nearly 6 runs per game over the past week. The Cubs have averaged just 2.3 rpg on .217 hitting the past week. Chicago is just 6-16 off a win this season. The Reds have young right hander Leake on the mound today and he has a solid 1.64 road era. In his last 2 starts vs the Cubs he has allowed 4 runs in 13+ innings. The Cubs counter with T. Lilly. Lilly is just 3-8 vs the Reds. Look for the Reds to rebound here tonight.

Tom Freese

Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland starter Fausto Carmona has won 3 of his last 4 starts. The Indians are 17-5 with Carmona in his last 22 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Indians are 6-1 their last 7 games overall. Cleveland is 5-0 their last 5 games vs. righty starters. Oakland starter Vin Mazzaro has pitched into the seventh inning just once this year. The Athletics are 10-23 their last 33 road games vs. righty starters and they are 3-9 their last 12 games as underdogs. Oakland is 6-13 with Mazzaro in his last 19 starts as an underdog.

Craig Trapp
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The wrong team is favored here or at worst should be even money. Haren goes for ARI but if you have not caught him this year he is nowhere near as good as last year. He has been doing the same thing all year 3-4 runs over 7 innings. On the other hand the LAD go to Billinglsy who is coming off his first start off the DL. He was a little rusty first time back but expect him to be much better today. Don't be surprised if he goes 7 innings of 1 run baseball as his hamstring is back to normal. Hitting also favors the LAD so lets load up on this underdog!

EZWINNERS
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Seattle Mariners -116
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The Mariners starting pitcher Cliff Lee is the top prize for teams looking to make a deal before the trade deadline and for good reason. Lee thre his third straight complete game in his last start Tuesday against the Yankees. In those three complete games Lee has dominated on his way to a 3-0 record and an ERA of just 1.33. I expect another solid outing from the lefty here as he takes on the Tigers. Detroit's starting pitcher Jeremy Bonderman has been shaky lately. Bonderman is 2-1 in his last three starts but it is due to some very nice run support as his ERA is 4.91 in those three starts. I don't expect him to benefit from much run support in this start with Cliff Lee on the mound as the opposing pitcher. In two starts this season against the Mariners, Bonderman is 0-1 with an ERA of 6.55 so I expect the Seattle bats to be able to put some runs on the board for Lee. The Mariners are 7-1 in Lee's last eight starts as a favorite. Play on Seattle.

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on New York Mets -103
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After yesterday's disappointing loss, giving up 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth, I look for the Mets to bounce back strong this afternoon. The Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss. After back-to-back quality efforts against the Orioles and the Yankees in their ballparks, Takahashi has had a pair of rough outings. I like his chances of getting back on track today, though, as the Nationals are 12-28 in their last 40 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Nats send Stammen to the hill, and they are just 3-7 in his last 10 starts. They are also 4-10 in his last 14 starts versus a team with a winning record. He is carrying a 5.24 ERA in 4 career starts against New York. Also, the Mets are 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Compare that to the Nationals, who are 8-23 in their last 31 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. I'm taking the Mets.

Jack Jones
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White Sox/Rangers OVER 10
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The runs should come in bunches tonight in the White Sox vs. Rangers Game 3 Sunday. Both Mark Buehrle and Scott Feldman have taken a step back this season. Buehrle is 6-7 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.495 WHIP this season for Chicago, while Feldman is 5-7 with a 5.48 ERA and 1.636 WHIP this year for Texas. The OVER is 8-7-1 in Buehrle's 16 starts, while the OVER is 11-4-1 in Feldman's 16 starts. Buehrle has faced the Rangers twice this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 21 base runners in 12.1 innings for a 7.30 ERA. Feldman has also faced the White Sox twice this year, giving up 8 runs, 6 earned, in 14 innings. Both of Feldman's starts vs. Chicago have gone OVER the number this year with combined scores of 12 and 14.
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This Texas line-up is one of the best in the big leagues, especially at home where they are hitting .304 and scoring 6.1 RPG. The White Sox are hitting the ball with much more authority over the past few weeks, scoring 5 or more runs in 9 of their last 16 games. The OVER is 7-1-1 in the Rangers last 9 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The OVER is 9-1-2 in Feldman's last 12 starts as a favorite. Take the OVER in this game Sunday night.

George Castillo
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Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Houston Astros
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Wade LeBlanc is one of those hard luck pitchers that pitches shutout baseball most of the time while still finding himself on the losing side of it all, at home he has accumulated a 2-4 record which is a real shame seeing as how he only allowed an avg. of 2 runs in each of each of his last 9 at home.
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The Padres have not been able to offer their pitcher anything more than 3 runs of support in each his last 3 outings. Nothing particularly new, they happen to rank in the bottom 10 for runs scored this season.
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Given LeBlanc’s terrible luck at home, I just cannot lay the type of juice that vegas has put on them. The opposite number on Houston is a little too good to ignore as well.

Gill Alexander
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TOR (+190) vs NYY
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Much has been made of Morrow having a poor road mark this season, posting a 6.69ERA in 8 road starts. But his last 2 road outings have been quality efforts @ Col and Cle. He has a 2.25ERA in his last 3 outings overall and two starts prior to that stretch, went 7IP v NYY, yielding just 1ER on 4H w 8SO against just 1BB. He has a 3.13ERA in 9 appearances v NYY. Jeter, ARod, and Teixera are a combined 5-for-31 (.161) v Morrow. Though Hughes has a tidy 3.68ERA in 5 starts v Tor, he has a 6.29ERA in his last 4 starts overall. He's coming off a 5.2IP, 6ER, 10H raking v Sea. Sabermetrics smiles on both Morrow and Hughes. Morrow has a 3.44 FIP and 3.89 xFIP. Hughes has a 3.39FIP and 3.95xFIP. However, Morrow's numbers are coupled with a .331BABIP, the 14th "luckiest" mark in MLB, telling us that he's poised for even more quality efforts. Yes, we got nailed on the 3* yesterday, backing Ricky Romero and the Jays v NYY and the Yanks put an 11 run 3rd inning together to beat us. But, that doesn't make the reasoning behind it unsound. It's so sound, in fact, that I have no hesitation going back to that well again Sunday morning, at an even more attractive +190.

Sac Lawson
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COL / SFG Under 8
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First off, wind is blowing in at Coors. Not a huge deal, but quite frankly, even a 5-10 MPH wind blowing in is something that certainly won't hurt our UNDER play.
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With that said, this play is definitely based off our starters. These teams have gone UNDER the total in 7 of their last 10 meetings against each other. What's even better though, is that Matt Cain is 1-12 O/U against Colorado in his career. The guy flat out LOVES facing this Rockies roster (even though they're mostly lefties), and although it's unfortunate for him, it's fortunate for us that his team usually fails to give him much run support against the Rocks. Cain has not been in great form lately, but his numbers against the Rockies are tough to ignore, and the fact that this side line is so short, even with him struggling and going up against a guy in Hammel who is undefeated at home, really makes me think he'll pitch well today.
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Speaking of Hammel, the guy is indeed undefeated at home, and for that reason I do feel comfortable backing a guy that is struggling a bit in his own right. The guy flat out finds ways to win in his home park, just like the Giants flat out find ways to leave men on base on the road.
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Both pitchers come in with signs of mediocrity in their recent performances, but a close side line, and a total of 8, tells me that Hammel's success at home, and Cains success against the Rockies will be the most influential trends in the result of the game. Let's go UNDER!

WAS (-110) vs NYM
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There is no doubt that Craig Stammen won't be in the majors for long. When the Nationals finally get healthy in their rotation, his roster spot will most likely be gone. Quite frankly, I'm okay with backing mediocrity here. For one, we've got 4th of July in our Nations capitol, which means that this game is an important one for the Nats and the home crowd. But most importantly, we've got Takahashi on the mound against a team that has seen him before....
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My rule on Takahashi is similar to my rule on many up n comers, back first, fade 2nd. In other words, when facing a team for the first time, it's usually safer to back them, whereas the second time around a straight fade is usually profitable. Takahashi has one of the craziest deliveries in the sport, and as a result the first time through the lineup is always tough for hitters. His ball is tough to spot out of his hand, and it seriously takes some getting used to. The Nationals have seen this guy out of the pen a bit this season, and most of their roster has at least a couple at bats off the dude. Doesn't sound like much, but seriously, 3rd and 4th at bats against Takahashi have been straight up deadly! With so much power on the right side of the plate for the Nats, and enough speed on the left side to make it interesting, I do think the Nationals get some serious run support for Stammen today.
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I'll fade the lefty here against a roster that has seen enough of him this year to be able to adjust to that crazy arm movement that Takahashi shows. Don't be afraid to back Stammen... even if we get down early, the second time through the Nationals lineup should provide plenty of runs to get the Nationals the lead, and possibly put them in a position to win another game in the 9th, which has been their style the last few days.

MIN (-105) vs TAM
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First off, this line should be +105, not -105. The Pregame system does not let you edit a play once it has been locked in. No doubt a good thing to have in place, ensuring honesty and all, but it's unfortunate when small mistakes such as this are made.
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That said... Tampa Bay and Minnesota. Obviously Minnesota at home is always a money-making situation. Especially today, with a guy who is definitely giving people reason to worry as Nick Blackburn is. Don't get me wrong, this guy has been really bad lately, but any time I can back a guy that is 5-0 at home at an underdog price, I've gotta do so. It's no secret around major league baseball that Blackburn is one of the biggest home fielders there is. He simply does not pitch well on the road. But with an ERA in the mid 3's at home over the last 4 seasons, and an ERA in the low 3's for day games, I do think we see him bounce back today.
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On the other side, Shields has definitely struggled lately. It's been hit-ability more than anything else. He's simply giving up far too many hits, and making far too many costly mistakes in pressure situations. The Twins at home are one tough cookie, and although there is little doubt that Shields is a decent starter, it's tough to suggest that he'll turn the corner against one of the toughest left-handed lineups in baseball, and on the road none the less.
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Like I said, I love getting a guy that is 5-0 at home at an underdog price. No doubt both of these starters come into this game struggling, but I'll take the home field pitcher to bounce off a rough stretch first in most situations. Take the Twins for 1.5 units!

Chuck O'Brien

Sunday’s complimentary selection comes from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, as I’ll play the Brewers-Cardinals contest UNDER the total.

The starting pitching matchup here says it all: Milwaukee ace Yovani Gallardo (8-3, 2.56 ERA) is squaring off against St. Louis co-ace Adam Wainwright (11-5, 2.34 ERA). Gallardo has given up one or zero runs in six of his last nine starts, and he’s held 12 of his last 15 opponents to two runs or fewer.

Wainwright is coming off an 8-0 win over the DBacks (6 1/3 scoreless innings), which was his 14th quality start in 17 trips to the mound this season, giving up two earned runs or less in 12 of those games. Wainwright has been perfect at home this season (8-0, 1.49 ERA in 8 starts), and Gallardo has been nearly as good on the road (4-0, 2.25 ERA in 8 starts).

Gallardo has had some issues with St. Louis in his career – in fact, he’s allowed 10 runs in 10 innings in his last two starts against the Redbirds. However, the under has cashed in Gallardo’s last three contests versus St. Louis. Meanwhile, Wainwright has been brilliant in his career against the Brewers, going 6-3 with a 2.03 ERA in 19 games (12 starts). The last seven times the big right-hander faced Milwaukee, he surrendered a total of seven earned runs in 51 1/3 innings (1.23 ERA).

Even though these teams played a slugfest last night, the under is still 6-2-1 in nine head-to-head meetings this season, with the four of the last five staying low (all in St. Louis). Milwaukee is also on “under” runs of 6-2 on the road, 7-1-1 against right-handed starters, 10-5-1 in N.L. Central contests, 6-2 on getaway Sunday and 5-2-1 when Gallardo starts on Sunday, while the Cardinals carry “under” trends of 4-1 overall (all at home), 5-1-1 in divisional games, 6-1 against right-handed starters and 3-1-1 when Wainwright starts at home.

4♦ UNDER

Stephen Nover

On the Sunday card, I'm going to back the Oakland Athletics against the Cleveland Indians.

The pitching matchups is right-hander Vin Mazzaro versus righty Fausto Carmona. Mazzaro has been respectable filling in for injured Brett Anderson, compiling a 2-2 mark and 3.41 ERA. The A's have been playing good ball, too. They've also owned the Indians knocking them off eight of the past nine times going into the weekend.

But this play is more a fade on Carmona and the Indians, with the second-worst record in the American League, being a favorite.

Carmona is 3-5 in his last eight starts, with two of those victories coming against the lowly Pirates and Nationals. Carmona has a 5.87 lifetime ERA against Oakland. The Indians have lost 11 times in their last 14 meetings against AL West foes when Carmona has been on the mound.

The Indians entered the weekend just 20-33 (37 percent) versus right-handed starters.

2♦ ATHLETICS

Bobby Maxwell

Tonight I have a FREE winner for you on the Rays as they are in Minnesota wrapping up a series against the Twins.

These teams finish off their four-game set in Minnesota today with the Rays sending James Shields (6-8, 4.76 ERA) to the hill opposite the Twins’ Nick Blackburn (7-5, 6.02). I’ll go with Shields in this one as Blackburn has been battered in his last few outings.

Shields hasn’t pitched great lately, but he has been solid on the road this season at 5-4 with a 4.00 ERA. Against the Twins, Shields was very good last season, including a May start when he held them to two runs in seven innings of a 5-3 victory. Last time he was in Minnesota, he allowed three runs in 6.2 innings but his team fell 4-3.

Blackburn has been just awful in his last six outings and the Twins are 1-5 to show for it. On Tuesday, he gave up four runs in seven innings but it was really his offense that did the work in the 11-4 win over the Tigers. Prior to that, he’d allowed 25 runs in his last 18.2 innings of work and failed to get through the fourth inning in four of the previous five starts.

Minnesota is on slides of 1-5 in Blackburn’s last six starts and 1-4 when they face a right-handed starter.

Look for the Rays to put up a lot of runs in this one and take care of business, getting Shields enough support to get the win. Play the Rays today.

4♦ TAMPA BAY