Karl Garrett
Tampa held on for the wild 8-6 win last night to make it 2 of 3 at Target Field this holiday weekend, but the fireworks today will belong to the home team.
G-Man riding Minnesota and Nick Blackburn to take care of business against Tampa and James Shields.
Shields continues to struggle, as he has now lost his last 7 starts, and he has allowed an alarming 22 runs over his last 21-plus innings of work.
Nick Blackburn is coming off a 7 inning, 4 run home win over Detroit to make it a perfect 5-0 at home this year, and 7-5 now for the campaign.
Blackburn has also defeated the Rays the last 2 times he has faced them, working 13 innings of 4 run ball along the way.
The Rays appear to have straightened things out just a bit, but with the Twins still a very positive 26-16 at home this season, I will side with Minny to garner the split in this 4-game series.
3♦ MINNESOTA
BRETT ATKINS
I'm in the National League West today for a free winner as I am backing the Dodgers on the road in Phoenix, taking on the D'Backs.
Chad Billingsley is on the hill for the Dodgers in this one and he’s been a stud on the road for them this season, going 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA. He held the Giants to two runs in six innings on Monday in San Francisco and he faced these D’Backs in Arizona on May 10 and gave up two runs in 5.1 innings of a 7-3 win.
The Dodgers are 7-2 in Billingsley's last nine starts in Phoenix and they are 24-9 in the last 33 meetings with the D’Backs.
Dan Haren goes for Arizona and he’s 0-2 in his last three starts with a 4.35 ERA and he’s allowed 14 runs in his last 20.2 innings. Arizona has lost seven of nine times Haren has faced the Dodgers, including May 11 when he gave up four runs on 10 hits in 6.1 innings of a 13-3 loss.
I’ll side with Billingsley and the Dodgers to get the win today in Arizona.
3♦ L.A. DODGERS
JOEL TYSON
For Sunday, why don't we play another over in the Mets-Nats contest.
Saturday looked like a sure-fire under, but the bullpens both coughed up some serious runs, and a 2-0 Mets lead late turned into a 6-5 Nats win, and a very easy over come the last out.
The recent trends point towards an under here, but with Takahashi all of the sudden losing his way - allowing 12 runs his last 10 innings pitched - I don't expect it to be long before there is a big inning up on that scoreboard, and an over to follow yesterday's over.
Stammen's track record against the Mets suggests a big inning or two for New York, as he has allowed 13 runs against New York in his last 22 innings of work against them.
I say the fireworks start before night fall in the nation's capital.
Go over in the Mets-Nats 4th of July battle.
4♦ OVER
Hentai Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Haren goes for Diamondbacks but if you have not caught him this year he is nowhere near as good as last year. He has been doing the same thing all year 3-4 runs over 7 innings. On the other hand the Dodgers go to Billinglsy who is coming off his first start off the DL. He was a little rusty first time back but expect him to be much better today. Don’t be surprised if he goes 7 innings of 1 run baseball as his hamstring is back to normal.
Jim Feist
Brewers at Cardinals
It isn't too often that we get one of the best pitchers in baseball at home for 1.50 or less. But, that's the case here on Sunday as Adam Wainwright goes for the Cardinals at home with a 11-5 record, 2.34 ERA and nifty 1.03 WHIP. Wainwright has been magnificent at home holding his last five opps to 0,0,3,0 and 2 runs. So why would we be getting Wainwright at home with a good Cardinals team at this price? That's easy, Yovani Gollardo. He's the ace of the Brewers and while the Brewers are eight games back of the Cardinals in the NL Central, he is the best they have. Gallardo is 8-3 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP - pretty good for a mediocre club. Gallardo did allow four earned runs in his last outing, a six inning win at home against the Astros, 7-5. Gallardo is good, but Wainwright is better, especially at home where he is almost unbeatable. I don't mind laying 1.50 with such a good pitcher and team. Take the Cardinals.
Jimmy Moore
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona
Pick: LA Dodgers
The Dodgers are in the thick of the hunt in the playoff race while the D'Backs are wallowing in the basement of their division. Billingsley is very steady while Haren has been getting hammered lately. Take the Dodgers to get the win in Arizona.
MTi Sports
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Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Pirates are 0-10 at home when seeking immediate revenge for a five-plus run loss. The Phillies are 13-0 in FRANCHISE HISTORY when Joe Blanton starts as a favorite when they lost the last time he started vs this opponent. What about the Phillies on the run line
Steve Merril
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Dodgers vs. D-Backs
Play: Over 9
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The Dodgers and Diamondbacks wrap up their series on Sunday afternoon. Los Angeles’ Chad Billingsley will face Arizona for the fourth time already this season. The righty is 1-0 with a 5.68 ERA so far against the Diamondbacks. He has given up 12 runs and 17 hits in 19 innings of work in those games. Stephen Drew (17-44), Chris Young (10-33), Adam LaRoche (5-15), and Miguel Montero (5-14) have good numbers against Billingsley. Arizona has gone Over the total in 25 of their 38 home games and Over the total in 15 of their 24 daytime games. Arizona is averaging over five runs per game at home, and if Billingsley struggles again, they’ll face a Dodgers bullpen that has six losses and four blown saves on the road. Arizona’s Dan Haren will face the Dodgers for the fourth time as well. He is 0-1 with a 2.61 ERA so far against Los Angeles. The righty has given up six runs and 23 hits in 20.2 innings of work. Casey Blake (14-40), Andre Ethier (13-38), Garret Anderson (12-34), James Loney (11-34), and Jamey Carroll (4-12) all hit Haren well. The righty has gone Over in 14 of his 17 starts this season as he's given up 131 hits in 116.3 innings pitched. Arizona's bullpen is the worst in baseball with an ERA close to 7.00. They have 18 losses and 11 blown saves already this season. Los Angeles is hitting over .285 in their last eight games, and with both pitchers troubles against the opposing lineup, we’ll recommend a play on the Over between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks this afternoon.
Tony George
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
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Hard to buck Ted Lilly at home in this one, the guy has been lights out in recent games. Cubbies are 36-15 in his last 51 home starts! Now thats a stat. A good pitcher on a roll at home always takes my attention away from other parts of the whole picture, but in this case it is warranted. You have to worry about the Cubs inconsistentcy at the plate as of late as well as their bullpen, but Lilly should go 7 or 8 innings today here. Chicago off a 3-1 win behind Randy Wells yesterday, a small lean to the home team in this rubber match.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -150
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I know St. Louis was crushed yesterday, and I know Gallardo is having a good season for the Brew Crew, but I have to take the Cards today with Wainwright on the hill. He is a perfect 8-0 with an ERA of only 1.49 at home this season. Plus, St. Louis has had Gallardo's number. He is 0-3 in his career when starting against St. Louis with an ERA of 6.59. The Cards have won 6 of their last 8 games following a loss and I'll back them in this bounce back spot today.
Black Widow
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1* on Chicago White Sox +136
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We'll fade Scott Feldman of the Rangers who just can't get anything to go his way this season. Feldman was a big surprise last year with a successful season, but teams are catching on to him in 2010. Feldman is 5-7 with a 5.48 ERA and 1.636 WHIP this season, allowing 58 earned runs, 124 hits and 32 walks in 95.1 innings. He has given up 8 runs in 14 innings against the White Sox in 2010. Mark Buehrle is coming around after a mediocre start to the year. The lefty is is 3-1 with a 2.29 ERA over his last 4 starts. Buerhle is 11-5 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 16 career starts against Texas. Chicago has won 17 of their last 22 games overall and are playing their best baseball of the season over the past month. Chicago is 11-1 in their last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take the White Sox on the Money Line.
JR O'Donnell
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DET (+100) vs SEA
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Seattle is really looking hard to trade the stud Cliff Lee as he is not the sharp side here on the 4th!! Seattle has been under achievers so far at 33-47 and the Cliff Lee show has been knocked around by these Tigers. The over all 5-9 mark and a rough rough 4.76 ERA lifetime against the Tigers, and 0-3 the last 3 starts! The Tigers are 12-1 at home!
Larry Ness
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San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
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The Giants got to Jimenez last night (6 IP / 5 hits / 4 walks / 7 ERs) but blew a 7-1 lead (fell behind 8-7). However, they rallied to win 11-8, snapping a seven-game losing streak. This afternoon, Matt Cain will attempt to snap a recent slump by besting Colorado's Jason Hammel. He has not matched Jimenez's season (who has?) but Hammel has developed into an important cog in Colorado's rotation this season. Hammel was with the Rays during their World Series season of 2008, going 4-4 with two saves and a 4.60 ERA in 40 appearances (five starts). He came to the Rockies in the off-season and went 10-8 with a 4.33 ERA in 30 starts. It should be noted that the Rockies were an impressive 18-12 in those starts, as his moneyline mark of plus-$578 ranked 24th among MLB starters (not bad at all). Hammel got off to an 'ugly' start in 2010, going 0-2 with a 9.16 ERA in his first four starts (team was 0-4). A strained groin landed him on the DL and he was just 1-1 with a 5.27 ERA in his first two starts back, although he had a 13-1 KW ratio. That was a portend of things to come, as he went 4-0 with an 0.79 ERA (allowing three ERs over 34.1 innings) over his next five starts (team was 5-0). He had pitched 28.1 consecutive scoreless innings before giving up four runs in four innings of a 13-11, 10-inning loss to Boston on June 24. He bounced back nicely from that performance, allowing three ERs over six innings of a 6-3 win at San Diego on Tuesday. Hammel has had some troubles on the road this year but he's been very good at home (5-1 with a 3.31 ERA in eight starts / team is 5-3). Matt Cain is again posting excellent numbers (2.93 ERA / just 88 hits allowed in 107.2 IP) but comes in 6-7 on the season (team is 7-9 in 16 starts). Which Cain show up here? He's allowed 22 hits and 14 ERs in losing three straight starts (8.22 ERA in 15.1 IP) but prior to that, had allowed just two ERs over his previous four starts (33 IP / 0.55 ERA), going 4-0. Which San Francisco team will show up? The one which scored 11 runs on Saturday (most runs since a 12-1 win over Arizona on May 29), or the one which totaled just 15 runs during a seven-game losing streak? I'll let you guess. As for me, I'll stick with Hammel and the Rockies.
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
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When the Cubs send Ted Lilly to the hill against the Reds in the wrap-up of this four-game series at Wrigley Field this afternoon they will do so knowing Lilly in is terrific KW form with five walks and 29 strikeouts in his last five starts. He's also 4-1 in his last five team starts in July. While Cincinnati went 6-1 in Mike Leake's first seven team starts this season, they are just 3-5 in his last eight efforts of late. With that, we'll stay at home with Lilly and the Cubs here this afternoon.
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Play on: Chicago Cubs
Dave Price
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1 Unit on LA Dodgers +107
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It's been a disappointing season for the D-backs, and it has been a disappointing season for ace Dan Haren. The D-backs have lost each of Haren's last 3 starts and they are also 0-7 in his last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. In addition, the Diamondbacks are just 2-7 in Haren's last 9 starts vs. the Dodgers. Billingsley has been sensational on the road this season. As a result, the Dodgers are 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The Dodgers are also a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog. LA has won 9 of 11 against Arizona this year, and I like the Dodgers to continue their dominance over the Snakes this afternoon.