SPORTS ADVISORS
N.Y. Mets (39-41) at Philadelphia (41-37)
The freefalling Mets send ace Johan Santana (9-6, 3.34 ERA) to the mound as they try to avoid getting swept in a three-game series against the rival Phillies, who will counter with Joe Blanton (4-4, 5.08) at Citizens Bank Park.
Philadelphia followed up Friday’s 7-2 series-opening victory with Saturday’s 4-1 triumph. Despite the results the last two days, the Phillies are just 5-15 in their last 20 contests, dropping eight of 11 at home during this slump. On the bright side, the defending champs are on runs of 23-11 against southpaw starters and 66-31 on Sunday.
New York has now dropped seven of its last nine and is 11-20 since the start of June, including 6-12 on the road. The Mets are on further slides of 3-11 on Sunday, 1-7 against winning teams and 1-5 versus right-handed starters.
New York won four of the first five series matchups against Philadelphia this season, but the Phillies have now taken the last four in a row.
After two straight strong outings (three earned runs allowed in 14 1/3 innings), Santana got rocked in his most recent start at Milwaukee on Tuesday, surrendering six runs (five earned) on nine hits and four walks in six innings, losing 6-3. The veteran southpaw has a 9.74 ERA in his last five starts. Still, New York is 19-8 in Santana’s last 27 trips to the mound, including 9-4 in his last 13 versus divisional foes.
Santana is 3-4 with a 5.18 ERA in seven games on the road this season and 4-0 with a 2.95 ERA in eight career starts against the Phillies, including 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA in two contests this year. In fact, the Mets are unbeaten in Santana’s last four starts against Philadelphia.
Philly is winless in Blanton’s last five starts, including Tuesday’s 5-4 loss at Atlanta in which the portly right-hander gave up three runs on eight hits in five innings. Despite the recent slump behind Blanton, the Phillies are still on runs of 9-4 at home, 10-4 against the N.L. East and 5-0 on Sunday when the veteran pitches. Also, Blanton has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven outings.
Blanton is 1-2 with a 6.05 ERA in seven starts at Citizens Bank this year, but 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA in three career starts against New York.
The under is on runs of 7-2 for the Mets in N.L. East contests, 5-2 for the Mets against right-handed starters, 5-1-2 for Philadelphia overall and 11-5-1 for Philadelphia against lefty starters. However, the over is 4-1 in Santana’s last five starts against the Phillies and 4-2-1 in the last seven head-to-head clashes at Citizens Bank.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS
Tampa Bay (44-38) at Texas (44-35)
Matt Garza (6-5, 3.45) goes after his third consecutive victory when he leads the Rays against Scott Feldman (6-2, 4.09) and the Rangers in the nationally televised finale of a three-game series at Rangers Ballpark.
Texas is looking for the series sweep tonight after topping Tampa Bay 3-1 on Friday and 12-4 on Saturday. The Rangers have won four in a row – all at home – and the run comes on the heels of a 3-8 slump. The Rangers are 19-7 in their last 26 home games against opponents with a losing road mark, but they’ve dropped four of their last five on Sunday.
The Rays have followed up a seven-game winning streak by losing three in a row. Still, Tampa Bay has won six of seven against right-handed starters and six of nine against winning teams. However, it is now 9-20 in its last 29 games against Texas in Rangers Ballpark.
Garza has given up a single run in each of his last two starts, scattering 10 hits and six walks over 15 combined innings, beating the Phillies 7-1 at home and the Blue Jays 4-1 on the road. Prior to this recent run, the right-hander had completed seven innings just once in his seven previous starts, and the Rays were 1-4 in his previous five outings.
Garza is 2-3 with a 3.80 ERA in seven road starts this season, but 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA in four career starts against the Rangers.
Feldman has gotten 18 runs of support in his last two starts, with Texas winning both games by scores of 9-8 at Arizona and 9-5 against the Angels at home Tuesday. Feldman surrendered three runs in six innings in each of those contests, and the right-hander has yielded three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 12 starts this season.
Texas is 8-3 in Feldman’s last 11 starts overall, but they’re 5-12 in his last 17 home outings and 1-4 in his last five Sunday contests. This season, Feldman is 2-1 with a 3.91 ERA in seven starts at Rangers Ballpark, and he’s 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in five career appearances (one start) against Tampa Bay.
With Feldman on the hill, the “under” is on streaks of 27-11 overall, 7-1 at home, 4-1 on Sunday and 9-1 against the A.L. East. Also, the under is 11-4-1 in Garza’s 16 starts this season, including 7-0 in his last seven trips to the hill. Additionally, all seven of Garza’s road starts in 2009 have stayed low, and his three starts against Texas last year played to the under.
As a team, Tampa Bay is on “under” runs of 6-1 overall (4-1 on the road), 5-1 against winning teams, 16-5-1 against right-handed starters and 4-1 on Sunday. Similarly, the Rangers carry “under” trends of 37-15-1 overall, 20-7-1 at home, 7-1 against the A.L. East, 22-8-1 against right-handed starters, 13-3-1 against righties at home and 14-3-1 on Sunday. Lastly, the under is 5-2 in the last seven Rays-Rangers battles, all in Texas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
Arizona at Colorado
The Diamondbacks look to build on their 5-1 record in Dan Haren's last 6 road starts when the total is set between 7 and 8 1/2 runs. Arizona is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110)
Game 901-902: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.820; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 13.850
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Under
Game 903-904: Pittsburgh at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 15.928; Florida (Nolasco) 14.407
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+160); Under
Game 905-906: NY Mets at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 13.552; Philadelphia (Blanton) 15.000
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Over
Game 907-908: Atlanta at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 16.249; Washington (Olsen) 14.897
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-145); Under
Game 909-910: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Burns) 15.277; Cubs (Lilly) 14.720
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-170); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+160); N/A
Game 911-912: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 16.084; Colorado (Jimenez) 14.516
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110); Over
Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 13.969; San Diego (Banks) 15.412
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+160); Under
Game 915-916: Houston at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 14.937; San Francisco (Johnson) 16.514
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+105); Over
Game 917-918: Toronto at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.275; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 17.293
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-185); Over
Game 919-920: Oakland at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 14.020; Cleveland (Lee) 15.234
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-230); Under
Game 921-922: Seattle at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Morrow) 16.620; Boston (Lester) 15.674
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-270); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+240); Over
Game 923-924: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 14.572; Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.205
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-145); Over
Game 925-926: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Richard) 16.119; Kansas City (Bannister) 14.405
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+110); Over
Game 927-928: Baltimore at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hill) 14.753; LA Angels (Saunders) 15.826
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-175); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-175); Under
Game 929-930: Tampa Bay at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.366; Texas (Feldman) 16.389
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120); Over
WNBA
Atlanta at Indiana
The Fever look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games overall. Indiana is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-9)
Game 601-602: Connecticut at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 112.682; Detroit 111.557
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 1; 138 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 3; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+3); Under
Game 603-604: Atlanta at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 107.276; Indiana 118.684
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 11 1/2; 145 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 9; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-9); Under
Game 605-606: Phoenix at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 109.072; Los Angeles 120.753
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 11 1/2; 177
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 6; 169 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-6); Over
Cajun Sports
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Arizona D-Backs vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
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The Diamondbacks and Rockies take the field at Coors on Sunday afternoon for the final game in their three-game weekend set. Arizona will send Dan Haren to the bump with his 7-5 W/L record and ERA of 2.19 on the season. Haren has been solid on the road as well posting a record of 3-1 W/L with an ERA of 2.45. The problem for Haren and his teammates is the Rockies are playing well and have won twenty of their last twenty-seven when facing right-handed starters. Not only that they are 22-5 W/L their last 27 overall which includes 6-0 W/L at home and 5-0 W/L when installed as a home favorite. Colorado will send Ubaldo Jimenez to the hill with his 6-7 W/L record and ERA of 3.74 overall this season including 4-2 W/L when he takes the bump at home with an ERA of 3.79. Jimenez is only 1-1 W/L over his last three starts but in the last two he has pitched well enough to win just didn’t get the run support he needed. On June 23 he gave up four earned runs on the road at the Angels and lost 4 to 3 then on June 29 he gave up two earned runs at the Dodgers and lost 4 to 2. We expect that to change here today as the Rockies are averaging 5.8 runs per game at home this season with a batting average of .278 and an OBP of .358 while the Diamondbacks are averaging only 4.0 runs per game on the road with a batting average of .222 and an OBP of .294. Arizona has struggled in the role of underdog going 24-53 W/L their last 77 games and 18-40 W/L when installed as a road underdog. Combine these factors and angles with the fact the Diamondbacks are only 17-42 W/L their last 59 road games when facing a team with a winning record and we have a super situation with the Rockies at home over the Diamondbacks. So lay the short price with the host as they cash the winning ticket at Coors Field on Sunday afternoon.
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Graded Selection: 2* Colorado Rockies 7 Arizona Diamondbacks 3
Craig Trapp
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: New York Mets
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Hard to believe that we are getting the best pitcher in the National League at even money. Santana is going for the NYM today and trying to end a 2 game losing streak for the Mets. Santana had a really tough outing the last time out but just throw it out to a bad night. A ton of injuries have this Mets team at best half strength but if they can score three runs Santana will do the rest. A complete game winner Santana will not give up more than 1 run.
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For Philly today they go to struggling pitcher Blanton. Blanton has not won in his last 6 starts and his ERA is over 4.5 in those starts. Today he will get banged around and not make it out of the 6th inning. Another problem for Phillies lately has been the bullpen as they are one of the worst in recent years. PHI has not been great at the plate either only scoring over 4 runs in one game in last 5.
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Score: NYM 5 - PHI 1
Greg Daraban
Atlanta at Washington
Lowe vs Olsen
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Saturday Washington won 5-3 Lowe a bit over priced and over bet at 6-7 after throwing well opening night.Olsen is 1-4, but Nats can win a series if they nail this one.
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Take Washington
Marc Lawrence
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Play On: NY Mets w/Santana
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The Mets wrap up their holiday series with the Phillies Sunday afternoon when they send ace southpaw John Santana to the mound in Philadelphia. Santana toes the rubber knowing he is 14-5 in his last nineteen team starts in July and 14-6 his last twenty team starts on Sundays. With Santana in sold form, look for him to improve to 7-2 in his career team starts against the Phils here today.
Red Dog Sports
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Detroit at Minnesota
Play: Under 9
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These two have combined for 66 overs and 90 unders this year. Rick Porcello has 6 overs and 9 unders while Nik Blackburn has 4 overs and 11 unders. Blackburn's ERA is 2.74 in his last 3 starts. Look for an under on Sunday.
Matt Fargo
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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: New York Mets
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The Mets had won two straight games prior to the first two games in this series but those setbacks should not set them back too much. They have an edge with the pitching matchup tonight and they catch a very good number against a Philadelphia team that has been having trouble winning at home. The Phillies are 15-22 at home which is the second worst home record in baseball. Johan Santana has not been in his best form recently but that could very well change this afternoon. Looking at his road numbers and you see a disappointing 5.18 ERA but a lot of that damage was done in just one outing against the Yankees. Take out that performance and his ERA drops from 5.18 to 3.49 which is a significant difference. He faces a Phillies team that he has dominated for the most part. In his seven starts against Philadelphia since joining the Mets, Santana has a 3.04 ERA with six of those seven starts being quality outings. He squares off against Joe Blanton who has definitely turned things around but that has not resulted in victories. He has allowed three runs or less in six of his last seven starts but the Phillies have lost his last five outings. Pitching at home has been a chore as Blanton is 1-2 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in seven starts. He allowed five runs in six innings in his only career start against New York while in a Phillies uniform so he could be just what the lackluster Mets offense needs right now. The Mets are 9-3 in Santana?s last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game while the Phillies are 1-6 in their last seven games against a team with a losing record. 3* New York Mets
John Fisher
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: New York Mets
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Phillies troubles at home and Blantons struggles spell a -154 line. Why is this game even. Take METS and Johan to shut down Phillies.
Arizona D-Backs vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Under 8.5
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Both these pitchers have been hot of late. Perfect time of day for this game to finish by 5:30pm. Considering that both of these ACES have given up 3 runs or less last three games I will side wit the UNDER 8.5. Dbacks 3 Rockies 2
Baltimore Orioles vs. LAA Angels
Play: Over 10
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Orioles tagged Saunders for 10 hits last time out. Both bullpens are reeling right now. Like this to be like yesterdays game. A lot of base runners! O's 10 Angels 7 4 STA over
MTI Sports
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Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
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The Orioles are 0-8 in the last game of a series when they are off a loss and the Angels are 9-0 in the last game of a series when they are off a win.
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Baltimore is 0-7 when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they held the lead and the Angels are and 7-0 as a favorite after a 5+ run win. Finally, the Angels are 9-0 with Saunders as a favorite after a start in which he had more walks than strikeouts. Consider laying the price.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on NY Mets -110
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I'll take the Mets this afternoon to salvage a win against division rival Philly as they send the better starter to the hill. Santana is 4-0 lifetime when starting against Philly with an ERA of 2.95 and a WHIP of 1.018. The Mets are 19-8 in Santana's last 27 starts and 9-4 in his last 13 starts against the division. The Phillies counter with Blanton and they are 0-5 in his last 5 starts. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter, 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record, and just 2-7 in their last 9 games as a home favorite. The Mets actually have a better road record than the Phillies have at home and I'll back the Mets to get back in the win column behind their ace here today.
Big Al McMordie
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Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
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Every ace throws in a clunker now and then, and southpaw starter Cliff Lee of the Cleveland Indians threw in a big one in his last start at home against the White Sox, surrendering seven earned runs on 11 hits in just three innings last Tuesday. There doesn't seem to be any rational reason for this as Lee has been great this season in every category except wins, so we'll just chalk that one up to waking up on the wrong side of the bed. Lee must be feeling good about his chances of bouncing back this afternoon against an A's team whose record is every bit as bad as his own team's, and one who Lee has dominated throughout his career. Lee is 4-1 with a 2.39 ERA in nine career starts against Oakland, including an incredible 2-0 with a 0.61 ERA in 2008, his Cy Young winning season. He also gets this start at home and against the unheralded Gio Gonzalez. The Indians offense is healthy once again as it has recently welcomed back to the lineup Grady Sizemore and Asdrubal Cabrera, two of its biggest offensive weapons. The loss of Mark DeRosa may weaken Cleveland's lineup a little bit, but it still has more weapons than the under-powered Oakland batting order. Take the Indians.
Rob Vinciletti
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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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Today we look at the Phils as they go for a back breaking sweep against the under manned Mets.I have a nice system here that plays against the Mets today.What we want to do is play against road teams off a road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs and had 5+ hits if the opponent is off a home favorite win scoring 4 or less runs if the total in the game was posted at 10 or higher.All road teams in this set are 21-62 su.IF our road team comes in favored they are just 3-14 su.Currently the Mets are a slight road fav as they have ace Johan Santana on the mound.Santana has struggled on the road this year with a 5.18 era.The Phils send righty J.Blanton to the mound today and while he has struggled in his home starts this year he has beaten the Mets in his lone start and doesn't have much too face here against the injury riddled Mets.Ny is just 3-7 as a road fav from -100 to -125 this year and 3-8 in Sunday affairs.The Phillies are 9-3 on Sundays and are averaging 6 runs per game in day games this year, and 5.6 runs per game vs leftys
JIM FEIST
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NEW YORK METS / PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Take NEW YORK METS
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Despite all their recent injuries, the Mets are still close in the NL East. Thanks mainly to no team in the NL East really playing all that great with the Phillies and Marlins just barely above .500. The Mets will look to their Ace, Johan Santana to help them knock a game off the Phillies lead today. Santana is 9-6 on the season with a 3.34 era. Most importantly, Santana has had great success in his career against the Phillies with a lifetime 4-0 mark in eight games with a 2.95 era, 16 walks and 49 KO's. Joe Blanton starts for the Phillies and he's been struggling this season. Blanton is 0-1 in his last three starts with a 4.67 era. Blanton's 5.08 season ERA is inflated also. The Mets need a win here on Sunday and Santana is the guy that can give it to them.
DAVE COKIN
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TAMPA BAY RAYS / TEXAS RANGERS
Take TAMPA BAY RAYS
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Matt Garza is not as reliable on the road as he is at home, but he's been throwing the ball well and has a decent shot to at least limit the Rangers in today's series windup. Scott Feldman has been a surprise for Texas, but he's facing a very tough offense here. The Rays need this game as the last thing they want is to suddenly hit the skids after climbing back into the AL East race, so I'll lean Tampa Bay's way for the Sunday free play.