Nelly
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San Francisco + over Houston
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The Giants are an incredible 26-12 at home this season and San Francisco can wrap up the series sweep in this pitching match-up featuring two legends. The Giants are 10-6 behind Randy Johnson this season including 6-2 in his home starts and after some ups and downs early in the year Johnson is again a very effective starter. Getting win 300 out of the way appears to have him more relaxed and comfortable and San Francisco has won six of his last seven starts and he is 5-1 in that span. Johnson owns a 2.5:1 strikeout to walk ratio and he should bring his best against one of his former teams. The Giants also feature one of the absolute best bullpens in baseball posting incredible numbers this season. The Astros are only 7-9 behind Roy Oswalt and his numbers which have been mediocre overall have been worse on the road. Houston is batting just .234 in the last ten games while the Giants are hitting at a red hot .303 clip and have won the first two games of this series by a score of 22-0.
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
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Minnesota continues to thrive in the home favorite role, where they have posted a 58-28 record. Today's starter, Nick Blackburn, is responsible for a lot of that with an 11-2 team start record, including 3-0 this year. Twins have won five of his six starts at the Metrodome with the only loss coming in a game where Blackburn did not allow any runs in seven innings. Go with the home team here.
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Play on: Minnesota
Alex Smart
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New York Mets -105
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Johan Santana (9-6, 3.34 ERA) the ace of the NY Mets pitching staff has not been in top form of late , but is more than capable of one of his patented lights out efforts vs a Philadelphia team he has has success against in the past as is evident by , a perfect 4-0 carer record along with a stingy 2.95 ERA in 8 starts. Meanwhile,Joe Blanton (4-4, 5.08), who will take the mound for Philadelphia is 1-2 with a 6.05 ERA in seven starts at home , and very much looks to be fade material in a park that has not been kind to him (52 in 41 innings). Phillies are 0-5 in Blantons last 5 starts and I expect one more negative effort this Sunday afternoon. ...Play on the NY Mets
LT Profits
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Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
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We feel that neither Rick Porcello of the Detroit Tigers nor Nick Blackburn of the Minnesota Twins are as good as some of their numbers this year may indicate, so we look for a higher scoring game here than others might expect.
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Sure, Porcello is 8-5 with a 3.90 ERA, but he puts too many men on base for our liking with a 1.41 WHIP. Besides, his regression appears to have already begun, as we was bombed for five earned runs on nine hits in just 4.1 innings by the normally light-hitting Oakland Athletics last Monday, and he now has a 4.80 ERA with a disgusting 2.13 WHIP over his last three starts.
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As for Blackburn, his numbers look even better at 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.30 WHIP overall. However, he too appears to be coming back down to earth as he has allowed double-digit hit totals in each of his last two starts. He was downright terrible in his only start vs. Detroit this year, getting lit up for nine runs (six earned) on eight hits while lasting only 4.1 innings at Comerica Park, which is more pitcher friendly than the Metrodome.
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Finally, the Over is still 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings even with the game staying Under yesterday, and we look for a return to the norm here.
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Pick: Tigers, Twins Over 9
Jimmy The Moose
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Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Under
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Detroit has played under the total in 6 of their last 7 games. The Twins have played the under in 7 of their last 8. The under is 8-3 in the Tigers last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 12-5 in their last 17 games as a road dog. In their last 13 games coming off a loss the under is 9-4. The under is 4-1 in Minnesota's last 5 games as a favorite and in their last 5 vs. a team with a a winning record. Blackburn's last 7 starts have played under the total. Play the under.
LEE KOSTROSKI
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers
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Just as the Rays appeared poised for another run at the AL East title they have dropped three straight including being outscored 15-5 in the first two games of this series. Although Tampa Bay has delivered a very solid record this season it has been built on winning two thirds of its home games as the Rays feature an 18-25 record away from Tropicana. Texas meanwhile has won four straight games to pull even for the AL West lead and the Rangers are ten games above .500 at home.
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The Rays are just 2-5 behind Matt Garza on the road even though he owns solid overall numbers. Garza came up big for the Rays in the postseason last year but his results have not been spectacular this season and Tampa Bay is just 8-8 in his starts. Garza has walked 42 batters this season and he has allowed 14 home runs which has been problematic. Overall this season the Rays have featured the superior bullpen in this match-up but Texas has delivered a 2.43 relief pitching ERA over the last ten games.
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The Rangers are 9-4 behind Scott Feldman this season and he has allowed three or fewer runs in eleven of his 13 starts. Feldman does not post the strikeout numbers that Garza does, but he also rarely allows walks and he has learned to pitch in a hazardous home venue. Feldman owns a 3.91 ERA at home this season which is very strong for a ballpark that has the 5th highest OPS in baseball. Tampa Bay is just 9-20 the last 29 meetings in Texas and the Rangers should be in good position to sweep this series at a very favorable price.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -165
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After getting crushed yesterday, I like the Cubs to come storming back with a win behind dominant southpaw Ted Lilly. Lilly has posted an ERA of just 1.85 at Wrigley this season and not surprisingly the Cubs are 6-1 in his home starts. The Cubs are 20-6 in Lilly's last 26 home starts and 6-1 in their last 7 home games. The Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 road games and 1-8 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Cubs in this bounce back spot.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on LAA Angels -1.5 +114
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Baltimore is 7-30 when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons, 2-15 revenging a road blowout loss vs. an opponent of 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons, and 5-20 in road games after 2 or more consecutive road games this season. The Angels are 13-2 after a win by 4 runs or more this season and 54-25 in Saunders' last 79 starts. Saunders didn't pitch very well last time out, but that swings the odds heavily in his favor this afternoon as the Angels are 5-1 in his last 6 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance and 10-1 after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing in his career. Take the Angels showing good value on the run line.
INDIANCOWBOY
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Take Under 9 Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
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The Braves continue to stay in the hunt for the NL East as they are just two games out of .500 and after sweeping the fighting Phils find themselves tied for 3rd in the division. The Braves need a strong start from Lowe today as they come off a loss to the Nats yesterday with Hanson on the mound. Lowe pitched much better in his last start as the Braves ended up winning 5-4 late as Lowe picked up a ND for that effort. Regardless, Lowe has a 4.44 era and he will look to lower that today against the Nats, who are an opportunistic, yet limited team on offense many times. After nearly a month off, Olsen came back strong in his last start at Florida givign up 2 runs in 7 innings - although he still picked up the loss. I look for him to have another strong effort as both he and Lowe should bring it to the mound strong today. The Under is 4-1 for the Braves following a loss and the Under is 9-2 for the Nats following a win.
Jeff Benton
N.Y. Mets at PHILADELPHIA (PK)
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I scored an easy 4♦ with the Mariners over the Dodgers with my most recent free selection last Saturday, and I’ll return to action today with another complimentary winner as I back the Phillies over the Mets.
Certainly, the starting pitching matchup in this one looks to favor the Mets, with Johan Santana (9-6, 3.34 ERA) squaring off against Philly’s Joe Blanton (4-4, 5.08). And it’s no secret to anyone who’s been with me the last couple of years that I’m not a fan of Blanton at all. That said, I’m willing to overlook the perceived starting pitching mismatch for one basic reason: The Mets are absolutely dreadful right now.
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By losing the first two games of this series 7-2 and 4-1, New York has lost seven of its last nine games. The two victories? A 1-0 win at Milwaukee on Wednesday and a 9-8, 10-inning makeup-game victory at Pittsburgh on Thursday. During this nine-game stretch, the Mets have scored two runs or fewer six times, and they’ve been held to three runs or less in nine of their last 12 games. What’s more, in the 10 games that preceded Saturday’s 4-1 loss to the ancient Jamie Moyer, New York had hit .238 as a team, including .232 against right-handers.
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Now, in full disclosure, the Phillies aren’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball themselves right now. But the offense has come to life a bit in the first two games of this series (11 runs), and Philadelphia has now won four straight games against the Mets while tallying 22 runs.
Finally, as for the great Santana, gotta tell ya, I haven’t been impressed at all lately. The lefty gave up six runs in six innings in Tuesday’s 6-3 loss at Milwaukee, and New York is just 2-4 in his last six starts with Santana yielding a total of 27 runs (25 earned) in 36 1/3 innings (6.19 ERA) while striking out just 18 batters. And if you go back to June 1, the Mets have just 11 wins in their last 31 games.
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Throw in Blanton’s strong career numbers against the Mets (1-0, 2.14 ERA in three starts), and I’ll back the better all-around team, at home, in this pick-em spot.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA
Karl Garrett
NY Mets at PHILADELPHIA (pick)
G-Man is on a 4-2 comp play run the last 6 days.
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NL East series finale from the Bank today, and I am all over the Phillies to garner the sweep of the Metropolitans.
The Mets have now lost 7 of their last 9 games, and even "ace" Johan Santana has been unable to find consistent footing this season, as the southpaw is an un-Santana-like 3-4 with an over 5 ERA away from home this year.
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Santana's last start against the Phillies saw 5 runs score in 7 innings of work, but he was able to leave with the win. That won't be the case today, as the New York offense is just non-existent these days, and cannot be counted on to give any New York starter solid run support.
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True, Joe Blanton has been non-spectacular this season, but the Phillies are now 3-1 at home against the Mets this season, and have their ducks in a row, as they get the brooms out this afternoon at home.
Phillies to pull of the 3-game sweep.
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2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Michael Cannon
NY Mets at PHILADELPHIA (pk)
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Take the Phillies for the home win and series sweep over the Mets today.
Johan Santana gets the nod for the Mets and he’s been struggling lately. There are reports that his fastball is not where it was at the beginning of the season and the results recently have backed that up.
The left-hander has lost three of his last four starts overall and has a 10.20 ERA in losing his last three road starts.
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The Phillies have been struggling as well, but they are showing signs of breaking out.
Philadelphia is looking to sweep a series at home for the first time since taking a three-game set from the Nationals at the end of May. The Phillies have also won four straight overall against the Mets.
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Take Philadelphia as they grab the home win.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA
Dominic Fazzini
Arizona -105 at COLORADO
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Aside from Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren (7-5, 2.19 ERA) has been the most dominant pitcher in the National League this year. The Arizona right-hander has gone at least seven innings and allowed two or fewer runs in seven straight starts, going 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA.
The National League’s ERA leader gave up one run in seven innings Tuesday in a 6-2 win over Cincinnati, and even added a home run and double at the plate.
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Haren has a 0.64 ERA in two starts against the Rockies this year, giving up one run in 14 innings, and he is 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA in six outings vs. Colorado.
Rockies right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez (6-7, 3.75) has tossed 14 scoreless innings in his last two starts against Arizona, including seven in his first start this year. He has a 2.79 ERA over his last 11 starts, but the Diamondbacks are coming off a game in which they rallied from a 4-0 deficit to win 11-7.
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I think Arizona will carry that momentum into today, especially with its ace taking the mound. Go with the Diamondbacks.
4♦ ARIZONA
Drew Gordon
Chi. White Sox -105 at KANSAS CITY
I'm now on a 22-10 roll with the plays I'm giving away, incl. the Marlins over the Pirates 5-3 Saturday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Chi. White Sox/Kansas City match-up.
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Good spot to back the White Sox, as they look to rebound from Saturday's 6-4 loss to the Royals. Offensively they were solid, but Gavin Floyd got roughed up by what has been a sputtering KC offense... Look for the Royals to get back to their anemic ways this afternoon, as Clayton Richard gets the nod in this one.
The White Sox southpaw has been much more effective on the road, going 2-0 with a solid 4.02 ERA this season. Not only that, but in his last start against the Royals (also at Kauffman), he was stellar, allowing 2 runs on 6 hits over 7 innings for the win back on May 29th! He also struck out 7 and walked only 1 batter in that effort, making for one of his more effective starts on the year.
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The same cannot be said for the Royals Brian Bannister, who despite some solid efforts in June, has NOT fared well against the White Sox, going 2-4 with an astronomical 8.15 ERA in 10 career starts against them! There's no doubt he was excellent in his last home start, limiting the Twins to 1 earned over 7 innings, but he received just 1 run of support in a bitter loss. More of the same today, because even if Bannister can break out of his funk against the White Sox, who's to say their pathetic offense will get anything done against Richard?!
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Bottom line, look for the White Sox to get back on track today, as they are clearly playing better ball than the Royals, winners of 7 of their last 8 overall. Not only that, but what appears to be a pitching mismatch is actually an edge for the Sox, as Bannister has traditionally been a disaster against the South Siders. White Sox take care of business Sunday afternoon!
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Take the Chicago White Sox behind Richard over Kansas City and Bannister in this MLB match up.
3♦ CHI. WHITE SOX
Bobby Maxwell
Houston (even) at SAN FRANCISCO
I handed you a FREE winner on Saturday with the Yankees who needed extra innings to take care of the Blue Jays. Today I've got another one for you as I love the Astros in San Francisco against the Giants.
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A couple of great pitchers who have had great careers are squaring off in this one, but I like Houston righty Roy Oswalt (4-4, 4.02 ERA) to get the best of the Giants and veteran southpaw Randy Johnson (8-5, 4.70).
Oswalt is starting to finally come around this season, going 1-1 in his last three games witha 2.74 ERA. In his last two starts, he's allowed two runs on nine hits in 15 innings and threw a complete game in San Diego on Monday, winning 3-1.
The Astros have won his last two starts agaisnt the Giants, getting great offensive support in 7-3 and 12-4 wins last season.
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Johnson has given up three runs or more in three of his last five games and when he faced the Astros last August, he gave up three runs on eight hits in seven innings of a 3-0 loss.
Houston is 17-7 in its last 24 games against the N.L. West and 20-7 in its last 27 Sunday contests. With Oswalt on the hill, they are 39-14 in his lst 53 starts against N.L. West squads and 4-1 in his last five as a road favorite.
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The Astros have won six of the last eight meetings with the Giants and they'll get this one today. I'm backing Oswalt and the Astros.
3♦ HOUSTON