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Detroit +130 at MINNESOTA
Underdog play on Detroit today, as Rick Porcello has already handled Minnesota, and Nick Blackburn once this season, and we expect him to turn the trick once again.
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Porcello worked 7 innings without allowing an earned run back on May 5th at home in a win over the Twins. On that day, Blackburn was handed the loss, as he allowed 6 runs in just 3 frames of work.
Detroit was on the short side yesterday, but we like them to take the rubber game this afternoon.
The Metrodome is a tough place to play, but Detroit is 12-11 at Minny's park since 2007, and we like them to improve on that mark in this spot.
Porcello is 8-5 for the year, while his counterpart Blackburn has dropped his last pair of starts for the Twins.
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Play on the Motown Cats to leave Minnesota with the series win.
1♦ DETROIT
Chris Jordan
Tampa Bay at TEXAS
I'm playing a total tonight, as I like this late game.
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The nationally televised game between contenders in their respective divisions will come down to which pitcher lasts longer. And while I’m admittedly inclined to side with expert junk-ball specialist Matt Garza, I won’t take my chances against a team that ranked No. 1 in runs scored last season, and is better this season while currently sitting at 13th in the league.
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This is a strange Rangers team, which has put up double digits repeatedly throughout the year, only to come back the next night – or two, three, four in a row thereafter – and fizzles at the plate. To wit: the Rangers have scored 10 or more runs five times this season. In their next game they’ve never put up more than five and average 3.4 runs in the immediate game afterward.
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That being said, on a night after winning 12-4, I’m being careful with Garza taking the hill, knowing he can set this aggressive lineup and keep it off-balance with his repertoire of pitches.
As for Texas, right-handed Scott Feldman has now started 13 straight appearances after opening the year in the bullpen and has been consistent for the Rangers with a 6-2 record. And while he rolls in with a 4.09 ERA for the season, as a starter that number drops to 3.38. That tells me that once the 26-year-old was able to expand his arsenal and had a bigger pitch count to work with, he was much more comfortable on the hill. In those 13 starts, he’s allowed no more than two earned runs in seven of those outings, and no more than three in 11 of them.
With Feldman toeing the slab, and taking a look specifically at the betting numbers, the under is on runs of 27-11 overall, 7-1 in Arlington and 9-1 against A.L. East foes.
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On top of that, and even more relevant to the here and now, the low is 11-4-1 in all of Garza’s starts in 2009, including his last seven starts. Even better, each of Garza’s seven road starts this season has stayed low. The righty’s three starts against Texas last season stayed under.
As a team, the defending American League champion is on under runs of 6-1 overall (4-1 on the road), 5-1 against teams with a winning record and 16-5-1 against right-handed starters. Likewise, Texas brings under tendencies of 37-15-1 overall, 20-7-1 at home, 7-1 against the A.L. East and 22-8-1 against right-handers (13-3-1 at home).
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Finally, the under is on a 5-2 run when these two do battle in Arlington. In front of nationally televised audience, look for these two pitch lights out.
2♦ UNDER
Scott Delaney
Going to side with Matt Garza in this one, as the Rangers have been null and void following a game in which they score double digits. Going back a little more than a week, Texas throttled the lowly Padres who were in after a trip to Seattle. The Rangers appeared to have found their offense after showing life in their previous series in Phoenix. Yet the next night after dismantling San Diego, the Rangers scored three and lost the game.
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They’ve score double digits five times this season, and look at the results when that happens: 12 runs in the first game, next game two runs; 19 runs, three runs; 10, and then five; 14 runs, followed by four; and, finally, the aforementioned San Diego quagmire.
And if there is any one pitcher who could manipulate an overconfident lineup the night after it went swing-happy, it’s Garza. The crafty right-hander has surrendered a single run in each of his last two starts while scattering 10 hits and registering 10 strikeouts in 15 combined innings, beating the Phillies 7-1 at home and the Blue Jays 4-1 in Toronto.
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Looking at Garza’s last 10 starts, he’s faced four of the top nine hitting teams in the bigs – Toronto (3rd), the Yankees (4th), Minnesota (8th) and Boston (8th). And in those starts, he’s last 26 innings, given up just eight earned runs, struck out 17 and has an ERA of 2.77. Thus, I think Tampa has the perfect guy on the hill to close this series.
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2♦ TAMPA BAY RAYS
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take the number back with the A's at the Jake.
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Yes I'm stubborn to back the horrific A's once again as they easily could get drilled here thanks to the monster disadvantage on the mound but bad teams cannot be laying prices such as this and Cleveland is still a bad team!
Gio Gonzalez is not good at all and I'm not going to act like he is. On the opposite extreme Cliff Lee is the reigning Cy Young award winner who can dazzle at the drop of a hat. But with that said Lee was just rocked in that last outing against the White Sox at home and maybe, just maybe, could have a little bit of a tired arm after pitching a lot of innings in the first half of this season.
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Both teams have struggled mightily overall this season leading me to believe that truly neither can really stake a claim to ever having such an advantage in a game no matter the pitching matchup.
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We will need Holliday or Giambi or Cust or one of the Oakland big boppers to do something today as we are behind the eight ball a bit from the get go but to be able to go against Eric Wedge and his disastrous and underachieving Indians plus this number is too good to totally pass up.
1♦ Athletics
Jake Timlin
Take the Phillies for the sweep as the Mets continue to slide.
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In what is a No Brainer I love the Phillies at today’s price tag as with the Mets having lost their last 4 games in the series and 7 of their last 9 games. Even worst news for the Mets is the fact that their ace in Santana has lost 3 of his last 4 starts, including his ugly performance last start out where he allowed five earned runs in a 6-3 loss to Milwaukee.
Meanwhile, for the Phillies they counter with Blanton who while his high ERA and his 0-1 mark over his last four starts benefits big time today facing a weak New York line up still missing Delgado, Beltran and Reyes.
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Let face it, with the Mets missing most of their offense they are going to continue to struggle against a motivated Philadelphia team looking for the sweep.
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2♦ Philadelphia Phillies
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
Tough loss yesterday as the Blue Jays blow the game and cost us another win in this spot.
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That’s fine because we’re getting back on track as we’re taking the Phillies at home against NL East rival New York.
After a a tough 3-game sweep at the hands of the Braves, the Phillies have come back strong against the Mets with wins in each of their first two meetings in this series. So far, in games 1 and 2, Philadelphia has outscored New York 11-3.
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Including the wins so far this weekend the Phillies have taken 4 straight against the Mets and have taken 3 of 4 at home against their NL East rival.
Consider, too, New York has only 2 wins its last 9 games and is just 2-6 its last 8 road games.
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The Mets will continue their losing ways and drop another on the road at the Phillies. Take Philadelphia at home in this one.
3♦ PHILLIES
Jr Tips
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TAMPA BAY vs. TEXAS
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The Rangers try to complete a three-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. Texas (44-35) won its fourth straight Saturday with a 12-4 victory over Tampa Bay (44-38). The Rangers may have broken out of their scoring woes, scoring 33 runs in their 4 games winning streak.The Rays are trying to avoid losing four straight and will start right-hander Matt Garza (6-5, 3.45 ERA) who seeks a third straight victory Sunday. He improved to 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his last two starts after allowing one run over seven innings and walking three Tuesday in a 4-1 victory at Toronto although he struggled a little bit with command. Garza has pitched well against Texas, going 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA and 26 strikeouts and five walks in four career starts.Texas will start Scott Feldman (6-2, 4.09), who won the first time since June 3 on Tuesday. Feldman gave up three runs over six innings in a 9-5 victory over the Los Angeles Angels. Feldman has made one career start against Tampa Bay, allowing two runs over seven innings in a 5-4 loss on June 7, 2008. Both of these pitchers have been solid and Sunday Night baseball on ESPN usually brings out the best in these starting pitchers. Runs will be a precious commodity in this game.
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TAKE UNDER 9 1/2
The Spread
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, 3:10PM ET
Games over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 26-21 (+2.0 Units) against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
22 of 46 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-2.8 Units, Under=-1.2 Units)
Games this season
COLORADO is 4-3 (+1.8 Units) against ARIZONA this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)
All games at COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 11-10 (+1.7 Units) against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
14 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+6.1 Units)
Games played at COLORADO this season.
COLORADO is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against ARIZONA this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)
Pick: Colorado
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, 2:10PM ET
Games over the last 3 seasons
CHI WHITE SOX is 30-16 (+12.0 Units) against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
21 of 44 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-3.3 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)
Games this season
CHI WHITE SOX is 6-4 (+2.4 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.7 Units)
All games at KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
CHI WHITE SOX is 16-9 (+7.8 Units) against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
13 of 24 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.8 Units)
Games played at KANSAS CITY this season.
CHI WHITE SOX is 5-2 (+4.1 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.7 Units)
Pick: Kansas City
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers, 8:05PM ET
Games over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 11-8 (+2.4 Units) against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.9 Units)
Games this season
TEXAS is 1-0 (+1.4 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)
All games at TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS is 7-6 (+0.7 Units) against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.0 Units)
Games played at TEXAS this season.
TEXAS is 1-0 (+1.4 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)
Pick: Texas
LARRY NESS
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COL / ARI Under 8.5
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The D'backs and Rockies combined for 18 runs and 24 hits on Saturday, as the D'backs won 11-7. Don't expect those July 4th type of 'fireworks' today in Coors. Haren goes for the D'backs and while he's only 7-5 on the season in 16 starts (team is 8-8), that hardly tells the whole story. Haren owns a 2.19 ERA, having allowed just 78 hits over 115 innings, striking out 113 batters while walking only 15. He's lasted at least seven innings and allowed two or fewer ERs in each of his last seven starts, going 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA (striking out 50 batters while walking just six). He?ll face Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 5-3 with a 2.79 ERA in his last 11 starts, allowing two ERs or less in SEVEN of those 11 outings. Take the Under.
John Ryan
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Toronto as they face the NYY slated to start at 1:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted an amazing mark of 47-37 and has made 5.8 units by exploiting false favorites. The average play has been a dog of +197. Play on road dogs with a money line of +175 to +250 with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start and is working on 7 or more days rest. Toronto is a solid 51-35 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. NYY are just 24-34 (-20.7 Units) against the money line after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Manager Cito Gaston is a solid 24-11 (+12.8 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Take Toronto.
Scott Rickenbach
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Under 8.5
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Last night's game got crazy late and that is helping to give us some line value with the under here after Saturday's game ended up totaling 18 runs. The bullpens faltered last night but, on Sunday, with Ubaldo Jimenez of the Rockies and Dan Haren of the Diamondbacks on the mound, the bullpens aren't likely to have much sayso in this one! Jimenez has a 2.18 ERA and a .188 BAA in five career starts against the Diamondbacks. He also has a very impressive .238 BAA in his career outings at Coors Field and a .230 BAA in career day games.
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Dan Haren of the Diamondbacks has a 2.19 ERA and a .189 BAA this season. Haren also has a solid 3.00 ERA in eight career starts against Colorado. The Arizona right-hander has allowed two earned runs or less in seven straight starts and he's gone at least seven innings in all seven of those starts. Haren has not allowed more than seven hits in any of those outings and he gave up four hits or less in five of those starts. This one has all the makings of a pitchers duel! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Colorado on Sunday.
Wunderdog
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Phoenix at Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -7
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Candace Parker makes her 2009 debut in this game and the return of the reigning Rookie of the Year and league MVP will have this place fired up. She may be rusty after maternity leave but her presence alone will spark the Spark. The Spark is 3-0 at home this season having won those three games in ridiculous fashion: 78-58, 67-47 and 82-55. Phoenix is 1-3 on the road this season, allowing 94 ppg to opponents. Yes, Phoenix scores, but LA plays well against such teams having gone 13-5 ATS the past two seasons against opponents that average 73+ points per game. In the underdog role, Phoenix crumbles having posted a 4-14 ATS record as a dog the past two seasons. Meanwhile, the Spark are 19-9 ATS in the favorite role over that same span including 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of six or more points. Finally, Los Angeles has revenge going for them here, having lost in Phoenix on June 19. The Spark is a perfect 12-0 ATS the past couple of seasons revenging a same season loss. LA gets the call here.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -165
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After getting crushed yesterday, I like the Cubs to come storming back with a win behind dominant southpaw Ted Lilly. Lilly has posted an ERA of just 1.85 at Wrigley this season and not surprisingly the Cubs are 6-1 in his home starts. The Cubs are 20-6 in Lilly's last 26 home starts and 6-1 in their last 7 home games. The Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 road games and 1-8 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Cubs in this bounce back spot.
GREG SHAKER
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Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Play: Yankees -1.5
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As you probably already know, I am not a huge proponent of runline plays and everything has to be just right for me to make one. I think they are right for this one today at New York. Yesterday's extra inning win was a big one for this Yankee squad and devastating for the visitors. It was in many ways but mostly because the Jays worked their best thrower in that game and were in need of a win, and did not get it. That means that Toronto continues to struggle, losing their 6th time in 7 tries, and that is very hard for any team to take with them for the next day of activity. I am not up to snuff on Cecil, but I do know that he has not been performing well and that is not good when you are throwing at the Yankees. The Yankees are having no problems scoring runs of late and that is one reason why they are winning at a high rate. But perhaps the biggest reason they are doing so, is their second line pitching, which has caught fire and is allowing the Yanks to have chances late in contests. They do have an ERA of just 1.67 over the last 10 and it should be of no surprise that they have won 9 of those games. And, 8 of those 9 have been won by MORE THAN ONE RUN. In fact yesterday was the first of those that was a 1 run affair. Chamberlain is not lighting up numbers right now, but he has yet to allow more than 3 runs in his last 10 pitched, and that is likely to be good enough today. He has been stifling verses these Jays in his somewhat brief career and he will be able to rely on the backup throwers to come in and do the job. I am laying the 1.5 and I am just going to be OK with that.
Rocketman
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NY Mets @ Philadelphia
Play: NY Mets
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Philadelphia is only 15-22 at home this year. Philadelphia is 1-5 this year at home when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. NY Mets bullpen has a 3.57 ERA overall this year. Johan Santana is 9-6 with a 3.34 ERA overall this year. Joe Blanton is 1-2 with a 6.05 ERA at home this year. Santana is 4-0 with a 2.95 ERA overall vs Philadelphia since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Mets today!