Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 7

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Edmonton +7½ -over HAMILTONFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Everyone loves offense, at least most bettors prefer to bet on a team that can score and often shy away from teams that cannot. In the first week of the CFL, every team went off for some serious offensive stats with the exception of the Eskimos. The 12 points that the Eskies threw up in the fourth quarter last week against the Riders was all “garbage time” points. That lack of offense by Edmonton combined with the Tigercats strong offensive showing has the dog undervalued here. What should not go ignored is that the Eskimos fell behind by a big margin early and were forced to play catch-up in the first game of the year. That’s difficult to do in the middle of the year, let alone in the season opener. It also occurred against Saskatchewan, a team that looks primed to make a serious Grey Cup run after a 2-0 start in which the Riders outscored the opposition 75-39. The Eskies, although they have an unproven QB in Mike Reilly, still have plenty of talent, a decent defense and very good special teams. They will have a better game today and despite what the numbers say, we actually liked what we saw in Reilly. It was his first CFL start in real time and he’ll be much better today against the awful defense of the Tigercats.
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Hamilton lost last week to Toronto but probably deserved a better fate. That said, the Ti-Cats defense is a mess. Missed coverage, big play after big play and 490 yards of Argos offense was too much to overcome for the Tabbies. When your defense can’t stop the marching band, spotting more than a converted TD is risky business. Hamilton’s offense is scary good. They have so many weapons and they could easily go off for another crooked number today. However, the TiCats have proven over the years that they cannot be trusted to win by a margin when asked to do so. They have a long track record of underperforming when they’re supposed to win and that applies here. The Eskimos were embarrassed last week and it’s usually not a good idea to spot this many points to a team that was blown out the previous week. That, too, applies here.

Bruce Marshall

Oakland vs. Kansas City
Pick: Oakland -1.5

Tough loss for the A's on Saturday, but we still think Oakland is a go-with proposition at the moment as it looks for its 8th win in the last 11 games. The A's will gladly take their chances against Royals starter Luis Mendoza, who didn't make it past the fourth inning for only the second start this season Tuesday against Cleveland, and has definitely cooled lately as his 5.74 ERA over his last three starts would attest. Remember, the A's had won five straight in this series prior to Saturday's 4-3 loss, and starter A.J. Griffin is only two starts removed from his first career shutout and complete game (a two-hitter to boot) on June 26 against Cincinnati.

Marc Lawrence

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

The Indians and Tigers put the wraps on this three-game division duel Sunday afternoon at Progressive Field where Cory Kluber matches serves with Doug Fister. Kluber takes the mound with a home ERA (2.93) that is nearly 2.5 runs per game better than his road ERA (5.40) this season. On the flip side, Fister has struggled both in this park (1-5) and during the month of July (6-12) in his MLB career team starts. Back the live home dog here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Jesse Schule

Miami vs. St. Louis
Pick: Miami +1.5

The Marlins will be looking to avoid the sweep this afternoon in St. Louis, as they lost 4-1 in the series opener, and blew a 4-2 lead in the seventh inning yesterday. While they are tied for the fewest wins in the Major Leagues (32), they have been playing much better lately. In fact they have a winning record since June 10, when Giancarlo Stanton returned to the lineup.

Another reason for the Marlins success, would be 20 year old right-hander Jose Fernandez. The rookie has given the Fish six straight excellent outings, and Miami has won five of those six games. He tossed eight scoreless innings, allowing just two hits in a 4-0 win over the Padres his last time out (I had a parlay with MIA+UNDER in that game).

Fernandez (5-4, 2.72 ERA) allowed three runs (one unearned) on six hits over seven innings in a win over the Cardinals in Miami just a few weeks ago.

Lance Lynn will toe the rubber for the home team, and he's lost consecutive starts. Lynn (10-3, 3.75 ERA) allowed five runs on nine hits over six innings in a loss to the Angels in L.A. his last time out. Prior to that he surrendered four runs on five hits over 7 2/3 innings in a 4-3 loss to the Astros. Both those losses came on the road though, and he's been a lot sharper at home. He's 6-0 with a 2.42 ERA at Busch Stadium this year.

The Fish tagged him for seven runs on nine hits over just five innings in the only previous meeting this season.

This has all the makings of a pitcher's duel, and with Lynn looking less than invincible in recent starts, I'm giving the edge to the underdog Marlins.

Jimmy Boyd

St Louis Cardinals -170

It is no secret that Miami is one of the worst teams in baseball. They are 21 games below .500 and have a .231 team batting average on the road this season. They are up against a Cardinals team that is batting .276 at home and scoring 4.5 runs per game.

Lance Lynn has been pitching lights out at home this season. In his eight home starts he has a 6-0 record and a 2.42 ERA. The Cardinals as a team are 7-1 in those eight starts. Jose Fernandez will get the start for Miami and his numbers on the road come nowhere close to comparing to Lynn's. Fernandez has a 2-4 record in eight road starts with a 4.12 ERA. The Marlins are simply outmatched from every angle in this game.

Jeff Alexander

Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +100

Colorado's Oswalt has been atrocious in 3 starts (7.87 ERA), losing each by at least 2 runs. Arizona's Pat Corbin has been lights out all season (2.49 ERA). Arizona has won 15 of his 17 starts with the wins coming by an average of 2.9 runs. The D-backs have won each of Corbin's last 4 starts versus Colorado with the last 3 wins coming by 2 runs or more.

Dave Price

Los Angeles Dodgers -173

I took the Giants yesterday (and cashed) as I liked the advantage they had on the mound with Bumgarner. However, the advantage clearly lies with Kershaw and the Dodgers today. The Giants have dropped 10 of 12 while the Dodgers have won 11 of 14, and San Francisco has its hands full as it goes up against the best lefty in baseball. Kershaw has a 1.93 ERA on the season, and he's 10-4 with an ERA of 1.34 in 19 starts versus the Giants. The Dodgers have won 3 of his last 4 starts overall versus the Giants and 5 of his last 7 starts in San Francisco. The Giants have dropped each of Chad Gaudin's last 2 starts, and he's 0-2 with an ERA of 10.12 in 2 career starts versus the Dodgers. Take Los Angeles.

Rob Vinciletti

New York Yankees -131

We are playing against Baltimore and any road dog that is off a 1 run road dog loss that scored 4 or less runs and managed 10 or more hits if they played error free ball and are playing a home team off a 1 run home favored win and scored 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits with no more that one error. These road dogs are on a 1-10 slide since 2007. Baltimore has lost 3 straight on the road off a 1 run road loss and 4 of 5 in July. The Yankees are off a nice come from behind win on Saturday and have won all 6 in July so far. They have H Kuroda going and he pitched a gem in his last home game vs the Orioles going 9 shut out innings. He has a solid 2.16 home era this season which is better than Baltimore starter J. Hammel who has a 4.45 road era and a 4.59 era vs the Yankees. Look for New York to win this one.

GamePlan

New York Yankees -123

The Yankees go for the sweep today as they look for revenge against the O's after being swept last week against them. Kuroda goes for the Yankees and he has been their best pitcher over the last two years. He has had a few extra days rest after the Yankees took some per-cautionary measures with an injury. Kuroda is 38-34 in his career when working on extra rest. A ton of those losses were when he did not get run support.

The Yankees face Jason Hammel who has a 4.59 ERA in his career against the Yankees. Kuroda has a 3.54 ERA in six career starts against the O's. Kuroda pitches great at Yankee stadium as he is 16-8 in career with a 2.57 ERA.

O's are 0-6 in Hammel's last 6 starts Yankees are 6-1 in Kurodas last 7 home starts. Take the Yankees today.

Art Aronson

Red Sox vs. Angels
Play: Under 8

John Lackey (6-5, 2.81 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Lackey gave up one earned run off six hits with one walk over eight frames in a win over the soft-hitting Friars on Tuesday. The veteran has won back-to-back starts, giving up just three runs vs. 18 K's in that span. Lackey will be opposed by Jered Weaver (2-4, 3.79 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits while striking out five over seven innings in his team's eventual 5-1 victory over the Cardinals on Tuesday. Over his last 14 innings of work the big right-hander has struck out 11 while permitting just two runs (note that in five starts at home this year, Weaver sports a very respectable 3.48 ERA home record). With these two red-hot and experienced hurlers facing off in the finale of this three-game set, everything points to runs being at a premium; consider a second look at the "under" in this one.

Jeffrey Brandes

Cincinnati Reds -1½ +110

Pitchers:
SEATTLE MARINERS: JOE SAUNDERS (L) ERA: 4.74 W/L: 6-8
CINCINNATI REDS: BRONSON ARROYO (R) ERA: 3.50 W/L: 7-6

JOE SAUNDERS 0-2 with a 6.04 ERA vs. the Reds in four career starts.

BRONSON ARROYO went all six innings in an 8-1 win over the Giants that was called because of rain on Monday. He allowed just two hits and one run. Bronson Arroyo is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in four career games against the Mariners, including one in which he pitched three innings for his only career save.

Cincinnati will head on the road for the remainder of the first half of the season, visiting Milwaukee for three games starting Monday and then Atlanta for four leading into the All-Star break. Look for them to take the measure of the pesky Mariners before they hit the road. The difference in ERA's between today's starting pitchers against their foe makes this a run line play.

Key Trends:
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

San Francisco is home this weekend after a brutal trip, a 10-game road trip and they ended with a losing record. The Dodgers have been on a tear, led by their dynamic rookie, and have ace Clayton Kershaw (2.08 ERA) going. He is 10-4 with a 1.33 ERA in his career against the rival Giants! And the Dodgers are 43-20 in Kershaws last 63 starts as a favorite. Play the LA Dodgers.

Sports Experts 17

Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx
Pick: Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota Lynx are coming of a terrible loss in LA for the second time in a row in less than a week. Today they face a mercury team that won their last 5 games. WNBA is a different way to see basketball, runs don´t come very often and today we have a run of 5 games that after Lynx terrible loss, the Mercury girls will pay the price of this big loss.

Dave Essler

SF Giants +1.5 +100

This one is a pretty obvious bet for me. I do indeed know that Kershaw's numbers against the Giants individually are very good, and that he'll generally pitch deep, and that he's a great hitting pitcher. However, the other argument can be made that the Giants know the book on him as well as anyone, and in a game that should (according to the posted total) stay low scoring, I simply can't pass up the automatic last at bat with a free run. Gaudin's a RP that may not pitch deep, but in limited games at home he's been solid. And he's done well in a few road starts, so we can assume that because the Dodgers couldn't get that extra run FOR us yesterday that perhaps they're going into a hitting funk again. Even the runs they DID get were for the most part unearned. I just see too much value in taking this at -110, figuring the Giants should take this series, and that Gaudin being rested may well be a good thing here. If he's been on the DL for a month, I might think differently, and surely trust SF's pen better, should it come to that.