Craig Davis
My free plays are doing much better than my paid releases, including last night's 10-1 Arizona win over the Rockies as a run line play... easy money.
So today I'm not only going to win my free play but I'm going to nail my 75-dime selection as we head to a new week in July.
Today's free play is a totals play on the Yankees and Orioles to go over the posted total.
Don't like either pitcher today and expect a lot of runs in the Bronx. Not surprising, the total is 9 at the time of this writing.
Baltimore now trails the Yankees by a 1/2 game for second place in the AL East after sweeping the Yankees less than a week ago in Baltimore.
Since then the O's have dropped four of five including dropping the first two of this series with the Yankees. Chris Davis continues, however, to stay hot against the Bronx Bombers, nailing a two-run homer in the first inning Saturday... and now has six dingers while batting .342 in 11 games with the Yanks so far this year.
Hiroki Kuroda will go for New York, and his last start came on June 30th, when he hurt his hip and allowed 4 runs to the same Orioles he is facing today.
Jason Hammel (7-5, 5.19 ERA) is 0-3 with a 5.55 ERA over his last six starts - all losses by the Orioles - and ranks near the bottom of baseball with 18 home runs allowed.
In fact, Baltimore is known for the long ball from both sides. They lead the league with 119 homers hit... but also lead the league in most allowed at 117.
This game is going OVER the posted total.
2♦ BALTIMORE-N.Y. YANKEES OVER
Jeff Benton
Sunday freebie is the Braves over the Phillies.
Atlanta clubbed their way to a 13-4 win last night, as the Phils not only lost big, but they also lost their big man Ryan Howard with inflammation in his left knee for the next 15 days.
The Braves continue to lead the way in the N.L. East, and they have won 6 of the past 9 series meetings against the Phillies.
Jonathan Pettibone has pitched well in his first season with Philly, but Atlanta starter Kris Medlen has been even better, as Medlen is on a 5-1 run his last 6 starts with a 2.50 ERA along the way.
Philadelphia just cannot seem to put together a string of wins, and they are just 3-4 their last 7 games overall.
Pettibone is making his first start against Atlanta, and while he may keep his team in this one for a while, I do not see the Phillies breaking through against Medlen.
Braves to take the rubber game of this three game set today.
1♦ ATLANTA
Brad Wilton
Your Sunday comp play is the Diamondbacks on the Run Line over the Rockies.
This play is all about going against Roy Oswalt, and going with the Snakes in their home ball park.
Oswalt is off to an 0-3 start in his Colorado tenure, and all 3 of the losses have come by 2 runs or more, as Oswalt's ERA is a rather unimposing 7.88.
Arizona is a phenomenal 15-2 when Patrick Corbin starts, and now that he is finally off a loss, it is time to jump back on his bandwagon. Corbin has not lost at Chase Field this season, going 5-0 with a 1.63 ERA.
The Diamondbacks have won the first two of this three game set, outscoring the Rockies 16-1 along the way, strong chance that the D-Backs not only win, but win big in this one again.
Let's ride with a Run Line play on Arizona in this one.
3♦ ARIZONA -1.5
Brett Atkins
My freebie for tonight is on the Tampa Bay Rays, who should have no trouble cruising to an easy win - their fourth straight overall - over the Chicago White Sox.
I love the way Rays veteran David Price Price returned from the disabled list in Cy Young-like fashion, striking out 10 Houston Astros in seven innings of three-hit ball. He was overpowering to say the least, as he did not allow a baserunner past first base in the 8-0 rout, his first win since April 28.
Today he faces John Danks, who, yes, showed durability by pitching into the eighth inning on Tuesday, against the Orioles, and helped end Chicago's five-game losing streak. But the left-hander is 2-5 with a 4.38 ERA on th year, and has struggled to find consistency throught the campaign.
Take the Rays in this one, and make sure it's on the Run Line and it's Price vs. Danks on automated ticket
1♦ TAMPA BAY -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free winner for today will be the team that let me down yesterday on the Run Line, as this will be the day the Nationals win by huge margins - mark my words - over the San Diego Padres.
And with the Nationals today, I don't care who the automatically listed pitchers are for this game. Of course, all Run Line plays automatically list pitchers with the starters who are scheduled to go at the time of the wager, but with this game, it's not imperative as to who goes, I just want action. In the even one of the pitchers is scratched, your book will deem your ticket a no-play. It's your responsibility to re-wager the game.
I simply like my chances on the Run Line with my preseason choice to win the World Series, as they the Nationals have now won three in a row, while the reeling Padres have dropped eight straight and will undoubtedly struggle to manage in this one, especially with how they lost yesterday.
The pitchers you will end up with are San Diego's Robbie Erlin and Washington's Stephen Strasburg. And while I do see a complete mismatch with these two on the hill today, I wouldn't be too worried about a pitcher scratch since the Friars can't get out of their own way lately.
Strasburg has to be aching for a dominant win, as he steps to the hill after another tough-luck no-decision just this past Tuesday, when he fired seven scoreless innings against the Brewers and lowered his ERA to 2.24. The bad things is: no run support... again. He struck out eight batters - shockingly, all on curveballs and not his heater. He'll be up for this one.
Erlin, meanwhile struggled with command and the grasp of his secondary pitches in his last start, against the Red Sox, and could only muster 3-2/3 innings. This is a tough chore for him today.
Take the Nats on the run line, and remember to double check your wager and be sure you have action at all times.
1♦ WASHINGTON -1.5
Scott Delaney
My freebie for Sunday is on the New York Yankees, as I think they're a cheap price for today's game against American League East-rival Baltimore. The Yankees have strung together their best win streak of the season - 6 games - while the Orioles have lost three in a row and are on the verge of being swept.
Friday night the Orioles were cruising to a 2-1 victory when the wheels came off in the ninth inning. Yesterday it was veteran Andy Pettitte recovering from an early pitching mistake to Chris Davis, who launched one over the center-field wall, and then settled down to earn his 11 straight win over the Orioles, who led 3-0 at one point.
The fact is, everything is going the Bombers' way right now. And make note, they're still out to avenge last weekend's three-game series sweep to these Orioles in Baltimore.
With the series taking place on 161st Street set in the Bronx after the Yankees' bats came alive in their series with the Minnesota Twins, I think Baltimore is in big trouble.
The Bombers plated 29 runs during their four-game sweep of the reeling Twins, and then they came home riding the momentum of a four-game win streak. That spree is up to six straight wins now.
Take the home team in this one.
1♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Jack Jones
Chicago Cubs +140
The Chicago Cubs are showing excellent value as a big home underdog to the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday. I look for them to follow up Saturday's 4-1 victory with another win in Game 3 Sunday to take this series from their NL Central rivals.
Carlos Villanueva is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander has gone 2-4 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 70 1/3 innings pitched this year.
A.J. Burnett is clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 3.68 ERA in six road starts this season, and 1-1 with a 5.12 ERA in his last three starts overall. He is returning from the DL today, so Pittsburgh won't allow him to go deep into this game.
Burnett is 14-34 (-22.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse since 1997. The Pirates are 1-5 in Burnett's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. He tends to lose his focus against these kinds of teams. Bet the Cubs Sunday.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +151 over TORONTO
To say Scott Diamond's moderate success this season and last is a surprise would be an understatement. Diamond lost 19 games between Triple-A and a brief stint in the majors in 2011 with a 6.28 ERA. Then something clicked, as he cut his control in half and anchored the Twins rotation for the majority of 2012. However, the sustainability of his success depends on multiple factors. His weak strikeout rate means he’s at the mercy of hit%, strand rate % and must rely heavily on his defense. Diamond's skill set lends itself to polarizing results but he also has an upper-tier 59% groundball rate and he knows he’s going to be pitching every fifth day for the remainder of this year. Diamond does not get rattled and at this price against Todd Redmond, he and the Twinkies are certainly worth a play. Hell, if Mike Pelfrey could come in here and easily beat R.A. Dickey, surely Diamond has an equal chance of doing the same to Redmond.
Redmond takes over the vacated slot left open by Chien-Ming Wang who took over for the vacated Russ Ortiz. Think about that for a second. Wang and Ortiz were chosen over Redmond to begin with and it’s not like Redmond is a young, up and coming player that they wanted to mold a little longer. He’s 28 and has over 1200 innings pitched in the minors. Redmond surrendered more than a hit an inning at Triple-AAA Buffalo this season. Redmond has fine control but he also has a troubling 57% fly-ball rate. Redmond has been in the system of the Pirates, Braves, Reds, and Royals before joining the Jays. In a league desperate for good pitchers, they all can’t be wrong and if Redmond and the Jays win today, good for them but we’re going with the best of it here in terms of value.
Boston +121 over L.A. ANGELS
John Lackey owned some of the best skills of any starter in June with an outstanding BB/K split of 4/29 in 37 innings, a 2.86 ERA and a 49% groundball rate. His current year to date command and 50% groundball rate both are the best levels of his career. If you're still clouded by his disastrous '12, it's time to put him on your radar again because John Lackey is back.
Jered Weaver is considered to an ace and that label has this very average pitcher extremely overvalued every time he takes the hill. It's been a season so far that Jered Weaver would like to forget. He's been far from the pitcher who was among the league's best for three seasons. We hate to say we told you so (okay, maybe we like to a little bit), but we pointed out a trend that made him a risky pick and that pigeon, as they say, has come home to roost. Weaver’s strikeout rate shows significant decline over the past few years, without any gains in control to offset it. In fact, his control is way off this year, making a bad situation worse. Weaver’s xERA trend highlighted the risks. Despite his fine surface stats in 2012, his 4.31 xERA was a warning sign. Out-of-the-ordinary hit % and strand % kept his ERA down and those have now normalized. There are really no signs here that point to a rebound to his elite status. Perhaps he will get stronger as the season progresses, but that's just speculation. The skills right now point to a guy who's going to have to be at his best to stay above replacement level and it’s not a sudden thing either. With a 32% groundball rate over eight years in the majors, Weaver has outpitched his xERA longer than any pitcher in the majors. He’s a below average pitcher and it’s finally caught up to him.
Wunderdog
Baltimore at New York Yankees
Pick: New York Yankees -125
We've been on the Yankees this entire series, and will go with them for the sweep here. A win here would give New York their second straight series sweep, after being swept themselves by this Orioles team just a week ago. This team is feeling it and is enjoying some home cooking right now. On the season, the Yankees are just a bit over .500 on the road, but at home they are 25-18. Baltimore has similar home/away stats and bring a .500 road record into this one. New York trots out Hiroki Kuroda, who has been very good this year posting a 2.95 ERA. At home he is 5-2 with a 2.16 ERA. New York remains one of the best home teams in the Majors, and they are 96-48 the past three seasons in day games. They are also 28-18 this season following a win. Take the Yankees here.
Harry Bondi
CLEVELAND (+130) over Detroit
Indians starter Cory Kluber has given his team's starting rotation a much-needed boost and has been much better at home, where he has a 2.93 ERA, compared to on the road where his ERA is more than 4.00. Detroit's Doug Fister is a bit overrated this season if you consider that his team has lost seven of his last nine starts, despite his 6-5 record. Cleveland gets back on the winning track at home behind another solid effort from Corey Kluber.
Ian Cameron
Edmonton at Hamilton
Play: Under
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats spent much of their practice time leading up to this afternoon’s Week 2 matchup against Edmonton retooling and working on their defense. Last season, it was the team’s achilles heel and the problems on defense reared its ugly head once again last week when the Ticats allowed 39 points and nearly 500 total yards to the Toronto Argonauts. Head coach Kent Austin has made several changes on defense entering today’s game; some of them due to injuries and others due to underperformance. As a result, I expect a much stronger and better effort despite the fact they are still a work in progress on that side of the football. Anyone that watched Edmonton last week saw an offense that was pathetic and completely out of sync. Edmonton starting quarterback Mike Reilly was off target throughout the game and the Eskimos’ offensive line was a disaster failing to open holes for the ground game or adequately protecting Riley who took several sacks in last week’s ugly 38-18 loss to Saskatchewan. Reilly completed just 48.6% of his passes with one touchdown and three interceptions. Even a suspect Hamilton defense should be able play much better as they are taking a major step down in class going from arguably the best offense in the CFL with Toronto to the worst.
Hamilton’s offense is the strength of their team and it was on full display last week against Toronto as the Ticats and veteran quarterback Henry Burris put up 34 points. However, most of that output came in the first half and once Toronto made their halftime adjustments on defense, Hamilton was held to just three points after the break. The ability to make plays at key times was a problem for Hamilton’s offense last season and while they can strike at any moment, today’s game will be a test for the Ticats offense because they will be facing what had been one of the best defenses in the CFL. The Eskimos didn’t really show it in their season opener as the defense was gashed for 39 points but the stats look worse than how things truly unfolded. Saskatchewan scored a touchdown off a Mike Reilly pick six and two more of their toucchdowns came directly off Edmonton turnovers which gave Saskatchewan terrific field position. All of that resulted in 21 of their 39 points. Edmonton’s defense didn’t play well but they were not as bad as the final score indicated. They will be facing a Hamilton offense that will be without a significant component today as wide reciever Andy Fantuz is out with a lower body injury. I usually don’t overreact to the absence of one player, particularly a receiver, but Fantuz led Hamilton in receiving yards and receptions last week – he was clearly a prime target for Burris. His ability to find open spaces on the field and make big time catches can’t be replaced so Hamilton may rely more on the run game today with C.J. Gable and Lindsey Lamar.
I think we have a little bit of inflation with this total sitting at 55.5 after a 4-0 Over sweep in Week 1. Two of the three Week 2 games have gone under and I look for that mini trend to continue. Play it UNDER.