Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday July, 8

Nick Parsons

Edmonton vs Saskatchewan
Pick: Under

Saskatchewan's home opener will be an electric atmosphere in the heart of “Rider Nation” and after thrashing Hamilton in their own turf and scoring the most points out of any other CFL team last week, the Riders are looking for another beatdown in front of their home fans. We are going to stay away from the side here but will make a play on the UNDER. Both the defenses were outstanding last week as the Eskies held Toronto to only 15 points and the Riders were able to shut down Hamilton for the entire second half last week. Even with the total the lowest its been in the team's last ten head to head matchups, we like the potential for the D's to once again be the strongest units for both sides as Edmonton is still trying to find it's identity offensively, following the trade of ten year starter, Ricky Ray to Toronto. While the Saskatchewan offense has hit the ground running, their Defense showed consistancy all season last year and the Riders have fallen under the number in eight of their last ten games.

Hollywood Sports

Edmonton vs Saskatchewan
Pick: Edmonton

Take the Edmonton Eskimos plus the points versus Saskatchewan Roughriders on Sunday. Sasketchewan (1-0) finished last in the CFL last year with a 5-13 record. Yet, after their 43-16 thumping over Hamilton last week, the Roughriders find themselves a 4.5-point favorite over an Edmonton team that finished second in the West Division before losing in the Division Finals to a British Columbia team that went on to win the Grey Cup. While their was needed turnover in Saskatchewan in the offseason, they will likely suffer a letdown after their statement win last week that helped wipe the slate clean from their disastrous 2011 season. This remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Home field has tended to not help the Roughriders either since they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as a favorite. Fellow teams from the West Division have covered the point spread in 8 of the last 9 meetings with Saskatchewan. And in the Riders' last 5 games played in the month of July, they failed to meet point spread expectations in 4 of these contests. Edmonton (1-0) took care of business last week by grinding out a 19-15 win over an improved Toronto team last week with a quarterback in Ricky Ray motivated with revenge after the Eskimos traded him to the Argonauts in the offseason. Edmonton's stout defense kept up just where they left off last season where they were second best in the CFL by holding their opponents to just 22.3 PPG. Quarterback Steven Jyles was solid in his Edmonton debut by completing 21 of 36 passes for 236 yards against the Toronto defense. Look for him to have a better game against a rebooted Saskatechewan defense that surrendered 432 yards of offense last week against the Tiger-Cats. The Roughriders' defense was second-to-last in the CFL last year by allowing 26.8 PPG while they finished 6th in the league by giving up 365.2 total YPG. The Eskimos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played in the month of July. Look for this good Edmonton team to expose Saskatchewan this week. Don't be surprised if they win outright -- which makes taking those 4 1/2 or so points enticing.

Sean Murphy

Eskimos @ Roughriders
PICK: Under 48

Both of these teams got off to strong starts last week, with the Eskimos eding out the Argos 19-15 and the Roughriders rolling the Ti-Cats by a 43-16 score.

Not surprisingly, Edmonton's win came on the strength of its defense. The Eskimos weren't dominant by any means, but they came up big when it mattered, limiting the Argos to only one touchdown. They're built around a 'bend but don't break' philosophy, and it certainly serves 'under' bettors well.

I have my concerns when it comes to the Eskies offense. Edmonton dealt Ricky Ray to the Argos in exchange for Steven Jyles in the offseason, but I'm still not convinced that Jyles is the man to lead this offense back to prominence. A couple of other big losses will clearly be felt this season in RB Jerome Messam and WR Jason Barnes, both of who found the endzone with regularity last season.

The Riders gained headlines for their 43-point performance against Hamilton last week, but I was even more impressed by their defensive effort. Saskatchewan was flying all over the field for four quarters, and save for a breakdown on an 89-yard Chevon Walker touchdown, they held up well against a potent Ti-Cats attack.

Now the Riders will take a step down in class against the Eskimos, and in what will be an emotionally-charged home opener, I look for them to bring the heat once again. They still haven't forgotten getting trounced 42-28 at the hands of the Eskies in their home opener last season. Keep in mind, while they did lose the next two meetings as well, they improved significantly defensively, holding Edmonton to 17 and 23 points.

This is the lowest total on the board in Week 2, and for good reason in my opinion. Both teams have plenty of upside on the defensive side of the football, and I don't see either side exploding offensively given the matchup. Note that five of the last eight meetings in this series have finished in the 40s or lower.

Marc Lawrence

Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

When the Brewers close out their three game visit against the Astros in Houston Sunday afternoon, Milwaukee will send Marco Estrada to the mound against Jordan Lyles knowing Estrada enters in great KW form with 34 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last six starts. Meanwhile Lyles, who has come up a loser in 14 of his last 20 overall team starts, checks in with a 0-6 career team start mark and a 5.93 ERA during the month of July. Back the better team and the better arm here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

Rob Vinciletti

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

In this game we want to play on road favorites of 140 or more off a road favored loss at 140 or higher by 2 or more runs while scoring 4 or less and leaving 10 or more men on base, vs an opponent off a home dog win by 2 or more runs and scored 5 or more runs. This system cashes 80% long term. The Brewers lost much of their chance on Saturday when Greinke was ejected for bouncing the ball after a questionable call after just 4 pitches. Word is he may make the start here in this one and replace Estrada. Either way the Brwers are the play as Lyles for Houston has lost 8 of 10 team starts and the Astros have lost 5 of 7 at home in rubber games. Saturdays win snapped a 9 game losing streak for a team that looks liken their playing out the string just half way through. The Brewers are 63-29 the last 3 seasons in the 2nd half vs losing teams. Look for the Brewers to take this one.

Jesse Schule

Yankees @ Red Sox
PICK: Over

We saw a slugfest in the late game in Boston yesterday, with the Red Sox coming out on top by a score of 9-5. We can likely expect another high scoring affair in Boston today, as the Red Sox have seen the total go over in six of their last eight games in Boston.

John Lester will get the start for Boston today, and he isn't having the kind of season he has had in the past. Lester (5-5, 4.33 ERA) hasn't been that sharp this year, although he had a decent outing his last time out. He allowed just a single run on four hits, over six innings in a 3-2 win over Oakland. That was Oakland though, on the West Coast in a pitcher friendly park, and today he is facing the Yankees in Fenway, a different story all together. I expect Lester to get roughed up a little by the Bronx Bombers today.

New York will send Ivan Nova to the mound, coming off a poor performance his last time out. Nova (9-3, 4.05 ERA) allowed six runs on seven hits in six innings, losing 7-4 to Tampa his last time out. He has also allowed home runs in four straight starts. Nova has a good record, and his ERA isn't bad, but he has benefited from a lot of run support, and he tends to give up a lot of hits. That could be a recipe for disaster in Boston.

Ladies and gentlemen, another slugfest in Beantown is on the menu today.

Jim Feist

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets

The NL East is being dominated lately by the Washington Nationals, but the second place Mets keep haning around, just four games back heading into the weekend. The Chicago Cubs have been playing much better of late, winning seven of their last 10 heading into the weekend. Still, the Cubs are 14 games back of Pittsburgh in the NL Central. They do get a boost to their pitching staff with the return of Ryan Dempster today. Dempster has been on the 15-day DL with a back issue and is 3-3 with a 2.11 ERA this season. The Cubs have the 25th team ERA in baseball and Dempster had won three straight before going on the DL. He's pitched well in bullpen work so any addition to the Cubs staff will be good. Jonathon Niese will start for the Mets with a 7-3 record and 3.35 ERA. Niese has been great of late, with three excellent starts allowing just four total earned runs over 21 1/3 innings. This included at win at Chicago on June 27 where he went seven innings and allowed just one earned run. I'm a bit surprised that Niese is just a 1.40 favorite here. Though the oddsmakers are giving a lot of respect to Dempster. Still, until I see that the back isn't an issue, I'm sticking with a hot pitcher in Niese. Take the Mets.

Scott Spreitzer

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

James Shields looks like he is reverting to pre-2011 form. Shields has allowed a ton of hits in 2012 which has helped send his WHIP to a hefty 1.41 on the season. He's been tagged for 31 hits in his last three starts, spanning just 19 2/3 innings, which has led to 13 earned runs allowed. Shields will face an Indians' offense that has scored 66 runs in their last 10 games. Cleveland got shut down by Jered Weaver on June 2...no shame there. Take away that game and they own a .344 team batting average in their last eight games going back to late June. Zack McCallister will make his first outing against the Rays and he has pitched well so far this season, sporting decent numbers in six starts, including a 1.28 WHIP. The righty owns an 11:1 K/BB ratio in two starts since being recalled (11 2/3 IP). The Tribe are on a 4-0 run with McCallister on the bump and they're 4-1 in five meetings with James Shields. I'm backing the Indians on Sunday afternoon.

MTi Sports

San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates

Lincecum, despite his terrible pitching is still overvalued. He was bombed in his last start and he has demonstrated no ability to turn things around in this spot. Since the start of the 2009 season, the Giants are 0-12 with Lincecum when he faced fewer than thirty batters, had a WHIP of at least two and lost his last start. This season, he is 0-3 with no quality starts. Consider the Pirates.

John Ryan

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers will welcome the all star break to get some much needed rest after losing their divisional lead to the Giants in the past week and now regaining it. They lead the Giants by a game with a 47-39 record, but had the best record in the NL for the majority of the season until many injuries, including Matt Kemp, hit the offensive productions hard. They are still just two games behind Washington for the best record in the NL and it would not be fair if Pittsburgh was noted and congratulated for their incredible first half 47-37 mark, which leads the NL Central by one game over the Reds. The Dodgers offense has slipped to 26th in MLB scoring 331 runs. They are 18th with a .251 team batting average and must find more production with runners in scoring position if they are going to contend for a playoff berth. They rank 28th with a .366 slugging-percentage and 29th with just 51 home runs. Helping their cause to be contenders is the fact that the division rival Giants rank 30th with just 50 home runs. Point is that the Dodgers can score runs with solid hitting and are not dependent on the long ball to score runs. Arizona hits the ball better than the Dodgers, but their bullpen is nowhere close to being as good. Arizona has posted a 4.24 ERA and allowed 17 home runs and 135 hits in 133 ⅔ innings of work in 42 home games this season. The Dodgers will get to Trevor Bauer, who has been horrific in his two starts sporting a 9.82 ERA and has not completed more than four innings in either start. Once the Dodgers get to the pen, the scoreboard will light up. Dodger starter Capuano has been solid with a 9-3 record, 2.62 ERA and a 1.119 WHIP in 18 starts this season. He has posted a 2.25 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, walking three batters in his last three starts. Take the Dodgers.

Carolina Sports

Rays vs. Indians
Play: Under 9

Big game James Shields has been just average this year as he is 8-5 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. His last three starts have not been good as he is posting a 5.95 ERA. However, the Indians are a match-up he does like as in his career his 1-5 but has a 3.83 ERA. Tampa is not a good hitting team especially without their star Evan Longoria. Zach McAllister is having a very nice season so far pitching to a 3.93 ERA and that number gets better at home with a 3.75 ERA. Cleveland really struggles to score as well as they are only avg 4.5-rpg with a .257 BA. Look Shields to have a good performance against a team he feels comfortable with and McAllister to continue his good pitching form. Tampa is 23-10 under when facing teams with a good bullpen. Take under the total.

Ben Burns

Edmonton Eskimos @ Saskatchewan Roughriders
PICK: Edmonton Eskimos

Both teams are off to a 1-0 SU/ATS start. The Riders were more "impressive" though, as they won in blowout fashion while the Eskimos eked out a win and cover. I feel that those results have given us some value with Edmonton here.

The Riders scored a road upset in Week 1. They haven't been very good as favorites in recent years though. In fact, they're just 4-10 ATS the last 14 times that they were laying points and that includes an 0-2 ATS mark as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. During the same stretch, note that the Riders are also a money-burning 6-16 ATS against Western division rivals.

The Eskimos won all three 2011 meetings. That includes a 42-28 victory here at Regina last July, when Saskatchewan was laying six points. Consider grabbing the points.

Dave Price

Pirates -120

Pittsburgh starter AJ Burnett has been virtually unstoppable at home. In eight starts at PNC Park this season, the Pirates are 8-0, while Burnett himself is now 5-0 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his home starts. He has been a major part of the Pirates new found success this season and with the way the Giants and Tim Lincecum have struggled to get anything going this year, I'll be playing the Bucs again on Sunday.

Jimmy Boyd

Indians -107

It might be hard to believe, but James Shields has a bad history against the Cleveland Indians. That, coupled with the fact that he simply is not pitching that well this season, makes the Indians a solid bet Sunday. In eight career starts against Cleveland, Shields is just 1-5, including losing his most recent contest against the Indians last May.

Shields has also had a pretty down year overall. He is 8-5 on the season, but a 4.11 ERA and 1.41 WHIP shows that he probably doesn't deserve that record. Big Game James has been particularly ineffective recently, posting a 5.95 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over his last three starts.

The Indians counter with Zach McAllister, who has just six starts to his credit, but who has looked solid in those outings. Cleveland is 5-1 in his starts (his individual record is 3-1), while sporting a 3.93 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. I'll take the Indians as a small home favorite with the Rays struggling to finish out the first half of the season.