Jack Jones
Tampa Bay Rays -102
I'll side with the Tampa Bay Rays this afternoon at a great price in Game 3 of this series against the Cleveland Indians. Rarely ever will you get James Shields at this kind of price, and I'll gladly take advantage.
Shields has not been as dominant as he was last year, but he's still having a solid season at 8-5 with a 4.11 ERA. Shields is also 5-2 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in eight road starts this season. He has posted a 3.83 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in eight career starts against Cleveland.
The Rays are an impressive 15-4 in their last 19 Sunday road games. Tampa is 22-7 in its last 29 Sunday games, and 4-0 in Shields' last 4 Sunday starts. The Rays are 9-2 in Shields' last 11 starts with 4 days of rest. The Indians are 10-26 in their last 36 during game 4 of a series. Bet the Rays Sunday.
Dave Cokin
San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates
Tim Lincecum is off yet another roasting, and his road stats are just insane this season. The Pirates are 12-2 when AJ Burnett starts, including 11 straight wins. Okay. I'll go with the Pirates.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +117 over ST. LOUIS
Annibal Sanchez disappointed last month with a 7.06 ERA but a 56% strand rate says luck was also a significant factor and he's a been a far better pitcher on the road this season (2.96 ERA) than at home (5.20 ERA). Sanchez has a good strikeout rate, a heavily bias groundball profile and decent control. His skills are solid and improving and if not for an abnormally low strand % of 69% he'd have much better surface numbers, His under the hood numbers say a correction to the good is forthcoming. Joe Kelly has gotten his feet wet with five starts since being called up on June 10. He’s 1-1 and has eight walks and 16 K’s in 27 innings. His 3.29 ERA is significantly lower than his 4.55 xERA and with the Marlins playing much better of late (7-3 L10), we’ll go with the undervalued Sanchez. Play: Miami +117 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +178 over TEXAS
Cole DeVries makes just his fifth start of the year and sixth appearance. In 23 innings, he’s allowed six jacks and against this host, that’s a big concern. Despite that, he has a respectable 3.91 ERA and BAA of .244. But this isn’t about Cole Devries. This is all about taking back a giant price against Roy Oswalt. We mentioned last time out that Oswalt is finished. He got extremely lucky in his first two starts but it caught up to him in his last one in Chicago where he allowed 13 hits and 11 runs in 4.2 innings. That outing was not unlike his first two. In 17.1 frames, covering just three starts, Oswalt has allowed 35 hits for a BAA of .422. He’s been batting practice out there in all three starts and Ron Washington is just the kind of manager that will keep throwing him out there until Oswalt refuses to embarrass himself further. Guys like Clayton Kershaw and C.C. Sabathia are -190 favorites. Guys like Roy Oswalt should never, ever be in that same price range. Play: Minnesota +178 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Yankees +111 over BOSTON
The Yankees have won 10 of 15 on the road against lefties and they’re more familiar with Jon Lester than any collective group in the league. Current Yanks have faced Lester an incredible 285 times and they have a .267 career batting average and a .346 on base %. That’s when Lester was terrific and this year’s he’s been anything but. Lester comes in with a 5-5 record and a 4.33 ERA. At home, he’s 2-3 with a 5.60 ERA. Meanwhile, Ivan Nova’s skills are reaching elite status. As a groundball specialist last year, he relied on his defense and he had good results. This year, his strikeout rate is way up (90 in 104 IP) while maintaining that strong groundball profile. The kid is 9-3 and when he’s a dog pitching for the Yanks, there is nothing but profit potential. Play N.Y. Yankees +111 (Risking 2 units).
Nelly
Minnesota + over Texas
In three starts Roy Oswalt has allowed 35 hits and 17 runs and clearly has not been the pick-up that the Rangers envisioned. The veteran may get things sorted out but he had shown signs of deterioration in his last few years and the time off can not have helped the cause. The Texas bullpen came through last night but has been a mess of late with a 5.59 ERA in the last ten games and Minnesota has been a hot offensive team, posting a .286 team average in the last ten games and scoring over 5.2 runs per game. Since June Minnesota has been a much better team and the season numbers should be thrown out the window as this team has played much more competitively in the last six weeks. Rookie Cole DeVries will make his fifth start of the season and two of those starts have been excellent. His season ERA is 3.91 with a better than 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and he will be an unfamiliar foe to the Rangers. The Minnesota bullpen has been worked hard this season but it has been a relatively reliable group and Texas was just barely able to snap a five-game losing streak last night. With huge underdog pricing the Twins are capable of stealing this game especially if Oswalt continues to struggle.
Charlies Sports
Miami Marlins at St.Louis Cardinals
Play: Miami Marlins
The (41-43) Miami Marlins of the National League East division will take on the (45-40) St.Louis Cardinals also of the MLB National League East division in 2012 MLB action. The Marlins will Right handed Anibal Sanchez, who is (4-6) with a 4.19 era this season to the pitchers mound vs. Right Handed Joe Kelly (1-1) with a 3.29 era. The Cardinals have taken 4 of 6 from Miami so far in 2012 including a 3-2 win yesterday. Marlins get the road win.
Hollywood Sports
Seattle at Oakland
Prediction: Over
Seattle (36-50) has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total with the number set at 6.5 or less. They send out Hernandez who is 6-5 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP this season. The Mariners had been hoping that King Felix had corrected a mechanical error in his delivery -- but those dreams may have been dashed after he allowed four runs in just 5 1/3 innings of work in his last start against the Orioles. Hernandez has been tough at home in Safeco Park where he sports a 2.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .236 opponent's batting average -- but these numbers rise to a 4.18 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .273 opponent's batting average when on the road. Seattle has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Hernandez on the hill. The Mariners have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Hernandez pitching with the Total set at 6.5 or less. Furthermore, Seattle has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Hernandez pitching in Oakland. The A's (42-43) counter with Colon who is 6-7 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP this season. But while the veteran right-hander owns a 3.12 ERA on the road, he sees this number rise to a 5.15 ERA when at home. Seattle is 20-25 on the road this season -- and Oakland has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Take the Over in this one while listing both starting pitchers.
Tony Stoffo
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: New York Yankees
Free Play - NY Yankees at Boston Even with the Red Sox getting the split last night in your doubleheader against the Yankees - their still slumping big time having now lost 5 of their last 6. For today with both starters basically equal - I feel the Yankees bats and bullpen will pull out the win here this evening. Yankees are 12-1 in Novas last 13 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 8-1 in Novas last 9 Sunday starts. Red Sox are 2-11 in Lesters last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Red Sox are 1-8 in Lesters last 9 starts vs. American League East.
Freddy Wills
Miami Marlins vs. St.Louis Cardinals
Play: St.Louis Cardinals
I like the Cardinals here today especially since Anibal Sanchez has turned into his old inconsistent self and he has not been exactly dominant vs. some of the Cardinals hitters. Beltran, Freese, Holliday are a combined 16-38 off the right hander. The Cardinals are 4th vs. RHP in OPS while the Marlins are 23rd and the Marlins just lost arguably their best hitter in Stanton for a month. The Marlins are also hitting just .197 with RISP on the road and Joe Kelly has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals. The Cardinals are also great hitters during the day 2nd .796 OPS while the Marlins are 16th. The Marlins are also 7-16 in Sanchez last 23 as a dog and 18-46 in their last 64 overall as a dog.
Wunderdog
Toronto at Chicago
Pick: Under 10.5
The Toronto Blue Jays and the Chicago White Sox have stalled each others offenses in this series, with the first two games totaling just eight combined runs. They will be facing a total of ten and a half here in this one which is simply to high. The White Sox staff has held opponents to four runs or less in 14 of their last 17 games. When you consider Texas, Toronto and the Yankees comprise over half of those games, they are getting great pitching. The Jays offense has been in a slump producing just 21 runs over their last six games at 3.5 a contest. The last four in Chicago have all gone UNDER as well. Play this one UNDER the total.
Rob Veno
Atlanta at Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia
Atlanta’s a confident team right now having won three straight and four of five with all four wins being by three or more runs. The offense has scored 29 runs in their last five games and the starting staff has rattled off four straight quality wins. The surge has seen them now get to within 0.5 game of the lead in the NL Wild Card race. Conversely, Philadelphia is an absolute mess after 86 games at 37-49, 14 games behind division leading Washington. Local media, the fan base and the team are all extremely frustrated and the Phils are an inch away from being a trade deadline seller. All that being said, Philadelphia looks to be in a good spot today against the Braves and RH starter Jair Jurrjens. While Jurrjens numbers in his three starts since coming off the DL look real good (2-0 / 1.20 WHIP / 1.47 ERA), there are numbers inside the overall façade that have us looking to fade him here. Jurrjens length of start, WHIP, total bases allowed, batters faced per inning and % of hits per batters faced have all gone up in each of his starts. His pitch counts per inning of 16.0 and 16.75 over his last two starts along with his six total strikeouts vs. 77 batters faced also signal trouble. His excellence in avoiding walks (only allowed 4) and home runs (0 allowed) have masked all the other inadequacies. Jurrjens current path suggests that he’s about to get lit up and Philadelphia’s offense is more than capable of doing just that. 1B Howard will be back in the starting lineup here for the Phillies who have been very successful offensively vs. righties posting a .272 batting average. On the hill for the home team will be RH Vance Worley who had rattled off four straight quality outings before slipping in his start last Tuesday against the Mets. Worley has a sensational 1.64 ERA in his pair of career starts against Atlanta and we’ll look for him to get the job done here at this reasonable price.
Xavier Singleton
Blue Jays +120
Dylan Axelrod is the starting pitcher for the White Sox. He is basically a 2 pitch pitcher, fastball and slider. These two pitches combine for 85% of the pitches he throws. His fastball averages 89 MPH. His home ERA is much worse than his road. His road ERA is barely above 3, while pitching at hitter friendly US Cellular Axelrod's ERA sores to 6.28.
Brett Cecil, a southpaw, is the starting pitcher for the Blue Jays. He is a legitimate 4 pitch pitcher, mainly featuring the fastball and the curveball. He does also throw a slider and a change up. His fastball averages at 88 MPH. The Blue Jays are 3-1 when Brett Cecil takes the mound. The Blue Jays have allowed an average of just 2 runs a game in those 3 runs. Cecils ERA doesn't reflect that success, given that in lone loss, he was tagged for 8 runs. Cecil has been a victim of the homerun ball, 6 of his 13 runs earned this season have came from the long ball.
Offensively the White Sox do not hit Lefties well at all. They are hitting nearly 30 points lower against lefties, at .232 on the season. More importantly is there lack of power against left handers. White Sox are more than 3 times likely to hit a homeruns off a right hand pitcher. White Sox shouldn't be the favorite here. Toronto is one of the highest scoring and slugging teams in the league, and 2nd in home runs. They have the power and the match up advantage today.
Matt Rivers
Now a 13-4 free play run!
Looking at the total of the Yankees-Red Sox series, and I expect both Ivan Nova and Jon Lester to dominate on the hill under the Sunday night lights.
Go Under in New York-Boston.
After an Over on Friday afternoon, the teams played Under in the opener of their day/night double-dip on Saturday, then closed the night-cap with an Over.
I think we are staring down the barrel of a pitcher's duel in this one.
Nova had a shaky start his last time out at Tampa Bay, but in his five previous starts he had not allowed more than two runs to score in any of the five, and ALL five of those starts stayed Under the total.
Jon Lester has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts, and four of his last five starts overall have ended up holding Under the total.
I think it would be wise for the scoreboard operators in the Green Monster to have plenty of "0"s in their numbers box.
Yankees and Red Sox to wrap it up with an Under on Sunday night.
2♦ UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Over in the Giants-Pirates series finale.
As good of a first half of the season as A.J. Burnett has had, the wheels were a little wobbly in his last start, as Burnett gave up 12 hits and 6 run in just 5 innings of work. That puts his ERA over his last three starts at 4.58. It also puts the Over in the games that Burnett has started at 3-2-1 his last six outings.
His counterpart Tim Lineceum has been a puzzlement all season long, and after his best start of the year against the Dodgers two starts ago, Lincecum promptly went out and allowed 7 earned runs (8 total) in just over 3 innings of work.
Lincecum's season ERA is over 6, and 12 of his 17 starts for the season have ended up playing Over the total.
Friday night's game featured 11 combined runs and the easy Over, while Saturday's game saw the pitching cool the bats off. Expect the bats to reignite today with Lincecum going to the break with one more shelling under his belt, and Burnett leaving some questions as to whether Pirates fans are in for a rough-ride in the second half of the season with him on the hill.
Play the Giants-Pirates Over the total.
4♦ OVER
Dom Chambers
Let’s go for three in a row with the Pittsburgh Pirates to defeat the San Francisco Giants.
This is a case of one pitcher that is hot and one that is not.
The Pirates are starting A.J. Burnett, and he has been outstanding for the Pirates this season. He is 9-2 with a 3.74 ERA . At home, he is even better, going 5-0 with 2.01 ERA
The Giants are starting Tim Lincecum. He started out struggling this season, the put together a couple of good outings. Then, he got bombe in his last start against the Washington Nationals, giving up eight runs in 3 1/3 innnings.
Overall, he is 3-9 with a 6.08 ERA. On the road, it gets worse, as he is 1-5 with a 8.45 ERA.
Burnett will give the Pirates a quality start and make things hard for the Giants, while Lincecum will struggle.
Take the Pirates.
2♦ PIRATES
Chris Jordan
This pitching rematch from June 27 will find Joe Kelly trying to help the St. Louis Cardinals get revenge over Miami's Anibal Sanchez, who had a rough start his last time out, allowing six runs - five of them earned - in five-plus innings in a no decision at Milwaukee.
Sanchez beat the Cards on June 27, but Kelly didn't take the loss in the game. He pitched well enough to win, allowing just two earned runs over six innings while scattering five hits.
Kelly comes in after taking his first loss of the season, last Tuesday, despite turning in his third straight quality start. The crafty north paw hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his five starts this year.
I like the looks of this matchup and will list Kelly to win it for the Cardinals.
1♦ ST. LOUIS