Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday June, 10

Marc Lawrence

Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates and Royals wrap up a three-game Interleague series where A. J. Burnett matches serves with Bruce Chen in Pittsburgh Sunday afternoon. Burnett toes the slab knowing he is 3-1 with a 1.08 ERA in his four home career team starts against Kansas City. On the flip side Chen enters 0-3 with a 6.36 ERA in his career team starts against Pittsburgh. With Burnett 5-2 with a 1.02 ERA at home this season, as opposed to 2-2 with an 8.69 ERA away, we'll stay at home with the Bucs here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Pittsburgh.

Charlie Scott

New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Mets

The Mets have played sluggish in their 2 games @ the Yankees this weekend. I expect them to battle and take chances Today to avoid being swept in the first leg of the Subway Series. While most fans have lost interest in Interleague play, the Subway Series is still a pretty big deal in New York, especially for the Mets. I also feel the Yankees are over priced Today. Yankees Pitcher Petite has looked good so far in his return, However I do look for him to struggle battling the daily baseball grind & travel combined with his age without steroids as his stuff is hittable.

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago Cubs vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins

Minnesota fits a nice system here that is 9-1 and play on home favorites with a total that is 8 or less that is off a home favored win and scored 10 or more runs and won by 5 or more runs, vs an opponent like the Cubs that are off a 5 or more run road dog loss, while scoring 4 or less runs with 10 or more hits. The Cubs are 2-12 vs leftys and 1-11 as a road dog from +100 to +125. They have lost all 5 this season to American league teams and have dropped 24 of 32 vs losing teams. The Twins are 4-1 vs the National league while scoring over 8 runs. The Cubs have lost 7 of R. Dempsters road starts and the Twins have an improving Liriano on the mound. Look for the Twins to emerge with a win.

David Chan

Dodgers @ Mariners
PICK: Under 8

The Dodgers' (38-22) Chad Billingsley (3-4, 3.80 ERA) is set to square off against the Mariners' (27-34) Blake Beavan (3-5, 5.22 ERA) on the mound this afternoon.

Billingsley gave up one run and scattered six hits over seven frames in his team's 2-1 win over the Phillies on Tuesday. It was a big step for the right-hander, as he had gone 0-4 with a 5.13 ERA over his previous nine starts.

In fact, Billingsley hasn't pitched horrible this year, but has been the victim of poor run support.

So far Billingsley is 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA on the road this season. However he was 2-1 in three interleague starts last year, posting a tiny 1.86 ERA in that span.

Beavan will be looking to make a return to the winners circle after dropping his first game since May 15th; he gave up six runs off 10 hits over five frames of work vs. the Angels last Tuesday. He struck out two with no walks.

Beavan has been much better in front of the home town crowd this year though, posting a 3.91 ERA, compared to 6.03 on the road.

Beavan has also struggled in getting support from his teammates this year.

Look for these starters to throw deep into this one, and consider a second look at the "under"!

Jesse Schule

New York Mets @ New York Yankees
PICK: New York Yankees

Break out the brooms, the Bronx Bombers are looking to sweep the Mets here on Sunday. The way the Yankees are hitting the ball lately, they won't need Andy Pettite to be as dominant as he was in his last start, when he struck out 10, and allowed no runs on just four hits in seven innings of a 7-0 victory over the Rays.

Mark Texiera and Curtis Granderson homered in yesterday's victory over the Met's, and Robinson Cano had a pair of dingers in the previous game. The Yankees have 90 home runs as a team so far, the most in the major leagues.

The Yankees will try to take Mets left-hander Jonathan Niese for a ride on Sunday, as they look to complete the sweep. Niese (4-2, 4.11) is coming off a victory in his last outing, however he reportedly suffered from an irregular heartbeat during the game. He was scheduled to have heart surgery over the All-Star break, however he may now wait until the end of the season. Apparently it is a minor procedure, and nothing to worry about? Maybe Niese is a better man than me, but I would think that I would be more than just a little distracted if I was due to have heart surgery, and my ticker was beating double time during the game?

Andy Pettite (3-2, 2.78 ERA), has been dominant lately, winning his last three starts at home with a super stingy 0.81 ERA. The veteran has looked unbeatable in recent games, and he looks to keep the ball rolling here against the Mets.

The price is pretty high, but given the complete mismatch, I can comfortably recommend a play on the Yankees here today.

Jack Jones

Texas Rangers -127

The Texas Rangers are motivated to win a series after losing each of their last three during their worst stretch of baseball this season. Still, the Rangers are 34-25 on the year and owners of one of the best records in the league.

Tim Lincecum has really struggled this season for San Francisco, and that's unlikely to change today against what I believe is the best line-up in baseball. Lincecum is 2-6 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.523 WHIP in 12 starts this season.

Alexi Ogando has been moved to the bullpen after serving as a starter for most of late year. He is 1-0 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.883 WHIP this season while allowing just 8 earned runs and 28 base runners over 31 2/3 innings. The hard-throwing right-hander gets a spot start in this one.

Lincecum is 0-7 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The Giants are 2-10 in Lincecum's 12 starts in 2012. The Rangers are 15-3 in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Texas is 26-8 in their last 34 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Bet Texas Sunday.

Dave Price

Chicago Cubs +123

The Cubs have been awful but are still showing value at this price with Dempster on the mound. He has a 2.59 ERA on the season and a 1.31 ERA on the road. I'm confident he'll outpitch Liriano, who is carrying a 6.75 ERA. It will be up to the Cubs to provide Dempster with a little run support here, which they have done lately. They have won each of his last 2 starts while scoring a combined 18 runs in those games. Take the Cubs.

Jeff Alexander

Cincinnati Reds -126

The Tigers haven't won consecutive games since May 26-27, going just 4-8 since. In fact, they are only 8-22 in their last 30 games following a win. Smyly got off to a hot start but has given up 4 runs in each of his last 5 starts. The Tigers are 1-5 in his last 6 starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts on 4 days' rest. The Reds have won 4 of Bailey's last 5 starts, and he limited the opposition to 3 runs or less in each of those wins. The Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss and 27-6 in Bailey's last 33 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Reds.

Jimmy Boyd

Arizona Diamondbacks -145

With losses in the first two games of this series, the A's are now just 4-13 in their last 17 overall, 1-7 in their last 8 on the road and 8-26 in their last 34 interleague road games. They also fell to 4-10 in their last 14 against the Diamondbacks, including 0-4 in their last 4 in Arizona. Oakland is only hitting .211 versus southpaw starters this season so it comes as no surprise that it is 0-6 in its last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. The A's figure to have their work cut out for themselves against Joe Saunders, who is 12-4 (13-5 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.44 in 18 career starts against them. The D-backs have won 4 in a row. Plus, they are on a 6-0 run in the third game of a series and 24-7 in their last 31 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take the Snakes.

Dave Cokin

Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins
Pick: Minnesota Twins

Ryan Dempster has pitched good ball for the Cubs but he's getting no run support. The Cubs are the worst against lefties and figure to have trouble with suddenly surging Francisco Liriano. Good spot for the red hot Twins to win again.

SPORTS WAGERS

ST. LOUIS -106 over Cleveland

The best pitch in baseball is still strike one and that’s the basis for this wager. Ubaldo Jiminez is averaging a major-league worst, 6.18 walks per nine innings. Overall, he’s walked 43 batters in 63 innings while whiffing just 37. Prior to a decent start in Detroit against this year’s biggest disappointment so far, Jiminez had been 0-3 with a 12.46 ERA in his previous three road outings. Aside from his control problems, Jiminez also has a poor groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 38%/23%/39%, which has led to an alarming 9% of his fly-balls to leave the yard. The Cardinals are a cheap price here because they’re sending out a rookie pitcher named Joe Kelly. Kelly was a third round pick in the ’09 draft after a successful college career as a closer. St. Louis returned him to the rotation in ’10 and he’s experienced success on the basis of his outstanding sinker. Kelly runs his power sinker in the 90-96 mph range and he can throw harder when needed. He complements his fastball with an effective slider, occasional curveball and average change-up. The fastball is clearly his go-to pitch and he pitches very aggressively early in the count. Kelly doesn’t allow many HR and has produced an extremely high number of groundballs. He also possesses solid control and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Tribe have never faced him. Play: St. Louis -106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

Oakland +141 over ARIZONA

Travis Blackley has experienced several ups and downs throughout his career. He signed originally with the Mariners in ’00 from Australia and was once one of their better prospects. Injuries and poor performance led him on a difficult journey and he’s been in six different organizations, not including Korea in ’11. Blackley has 55 innings in the big leagues and he appears to be very comfortable right now with 14 K’s and just five walks in 21 frames. He has an elite 52% groundball rate and an xERA of 3.81. His high ERA is a direct result of a low 60% strand rate and once that normalizes, his ERA will improve. The A’s are a better team against lefties and will face one that should not be in this price range. Joe Saunders longest outing over his past six games has been 6.2 innings. He’s allowed four runs or more in half of them and three runs or more in five of those six starts. He’s an overachieving pitcher with average stuff and a .279 BAA. History tells us to stay away from him when he’s favored. Play: Oakland +141 (Risking 2 units).

JR O'Donnell

Texas Rangers -139

Rangers sit a top & are in 1st in the AL West by "4" games and the Giants are "7" games over .500 in the NL West. We see the difference here in the ability of the Rangers to score, and the tough tough season that perennial Cy Young candidate Tim Lincecum of the G-Men is having. The seemingly diminutive Lincecum with the out of the ordinary delivery, may have finally had the strain on the arm begin to catch up with him. He is 2-6, with a terrible 5.83 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. Command of his pitches has always been one of his strengths, but this year he has walked "35" while striking out "72" for just over a 2:1 ratio. In his last "5" outings he has averaged "6" innings pitched, surrendered "19" runs and is 0-3. His mound opponent is Alexi Ogando who is making his first start of the year, and is 1-0 with an ERA of 2.27 and .88 WHIP. He will probably be working to a pitch count of only "70" and hopefully turn it over to the strong pen. Texas is #1 in the AL in scoring with 5.3 runs per game, and the G-Men struggle to get "3" at home.

Wunderdog

Chicago Cubs at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota -145

The Cubs are abysmal all around, including 7-25 on the road. The Cubs are not a bounce back team at 3-18 in their last 21 games following a loss and 5-14 in Ryan Dempster's last 19 starts. This offense is 27th in runs scored, 26th in on-base percentage and 23rd in slugging. The Cubs are 7-19 in their last 26 interleague games and 6-21 in their last 27 against the American League Central. Chicago is 19-39 in their last 58 interleague road games and faces southpaw Francisco Liriano, who sports a 2.65 ERA his last three starts, fanning 21 with six walks in 17 innings! And the Cubs are 17-36 in their last 53 games vs. a left-handed starter. Chicago has never faced Liriano. In two starts now, since rejoining the rotation, Liriano is 1-1 with a 0.75 ERA and a 17:3 K:BB over 12 innings. Minnesota has its offense clicking off an 11-3 rout of the Cubs and has won 9 of 11 games. The Cubs are 9-24 in their last 33 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and a dismal 4-22 in their last 26 road games against a left-handed starter. Play the Twins.

John Ryan

Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

10* graded play on the Philadelphia Phillies as they take on the Baltimore Orioles set to start at 1:35 PM ET. The Phillies continue to struggle inventing new ways to lose games. In another tie game on the road, Manuel chose to go with a reliever not names Papelbon and it led to another disastrous loss in 12 innings Saturday. There have been seven losses of this type this season and at some point Papelbon has to become the go-to man as the highest paid closer at $50 million in MLb history. Otherwise, the Phillies seven game deficit in the National League East is goig to enlarge and they could become sellers come the trading deadline.

Baltimore is going through a very tough stretch of games and are just one game out of first place now held by Tampa Bay in the American league East. Much like the NL East, the American League version has five teams all within five games of one another and all five are valid contenders to this point.

The Philadelphia Phillies are batting far better than most media types may suggest. They are fourth in MLB with a .267 team batting average and they are steadily improving with runners-in-scoring-position. They are a very disciplined hitting team and rank second in MLB with 2,340 plate appearances. fourth averaging 9.34 hits per game, and fourth fewest averaging 6. 41 strikeouts per game.

Baltimore ranks 20th with a .246 team batting average, eighth with 2,264 plate appearances, third averaging 1.37 home runs per game, but a miserable 30th strikig out an average of 8.42 times per game.

Seems mathematically impossible for a starter with the excellent statistics he possesses to be winless at this point in the season. It?s June 10, and Lee is 0-3 in nine starts, but has posted a 2.35 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and allowing a .232 opponent batting average. He will win today given that Baltimore strikeouts far too much and rely too much on the long ball for run production.

He throws fastball 84% of the time on the first pitch. This is a very good fastball that he can create different angles and varying movements that keep batters off balance even though they know the pitch is coming. Even when ahead in the count, he will throw fastball 68% of the time. His out pitch is clearly his incredible curveball where batters are hitting just .129. he will throw that pitch 9% of all pitches thrown and 17% when ahead in the count. The curve also makes his fastball even more lectric and harder to hit.

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 244-107 for 70% winners and has made 84.6 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play against all dogs with a money line of +100 or higher that is a struggling offensive team scoring <=4.7 runs per game on the season and after allowing four runs or more in the previous game.