Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 20,2010

Rocketman

Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati is 22-12 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. Seattle is 6-16 this year in day games. Seattle is scoring only 3.4 runs per game overall this year, 3.5 runs per game at home this year and 3.4 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Ryan Rowland-Smith is 0-6 with a 6.63 ERA in all games this year, 0-6 with a 6.88 ERA in all starts this season, 0-2 with a 5.24 ERA at home this year and 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA his last 3 starts. Harang has a 1.32 ERA overall vs Seattle since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Cincinnati today!

Craig Trapp

Chicago White Sox vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Chicago White Sox

Two teams headed in opposite directions, CHW have 5 in a row while WASH has long 5 in a row. CHW have been winning with great pitching and timely hitting. WASH on the other hand just have not been hitting or pitching well. Garcia goes for the CHW trying to continue his great pitching as of late. Garcia (7-3, 4.94 ERA) has a 3.71 ERA over his four-start winning streak. Lanaan will oppose him for WASH but he has been downright bad lately, going 0-1 with a 10.00 ERA in last two starts. Hitting has not been great for either team but at least CHW are hitting in timely spots to pull out close wins. Much better pitching for CHW will carry us to another free winner.

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago White Sox vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals

The Whitesox fit a negative system here that plays against certain road teams off a road favored win by 1 run if they scored 4 or less runs vs an opponent off a 1 run home dog loss that had 4 or less hits and 5 or more men left on base. These road teams are just 2-8 the past few years. Chicago is just 4-9 this year with a total of 9 to 9.5.. Look for Washington to put and end to their 5 game losing streak and the 5 game Chicago win streak.

Steve Merril

Orioles @ Padres
PICK: Orioles +1½

The last two times Jake Arrieta has taken the mound, the Orioles have won. Baltimore turns to the rookie for a third time this season in hopes of another victory. Arrieta is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA on the year. Last time out, he gave up one run and three hits in seven innings of work against the Giants. Now he'll face a Padres team that isn’t overwhelming offensively. As a team, San Diego is hitting just .247 while scoring only four runs per game this season.

San Diego’s Jon Garland is going thru a rough patch. He's 0-3 with a 6.50 ERA in his last three games giving up 13 runs and 24 hits in 18 innings of work. The Orioles have faced Garland 10 times in his career. He gave up eight runs and 16 hits in his last 12.3 innings pitched against Baltimore. Miguel Tejada (13-32), Nick Markakis (6-14), Julio Lugo (3-11), and Luke Scott (6-11) all have good numbers against Garland. The Orioles have covered the run line in three of their last four games, and we expect another close game here which means we recommend taking Baltimore on the run line in this game.

MARC LAWRENCE

San Francisco Giants @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays look to complete a three game series sweep against the Giants when they send Shaun Marcum to the mound against Jonathon Sanchez in Toronto this afternoon. Marcum enters today's fray with wins in eight of his last 10 team starts with seven walks and 33 strikeouts in those efforts. With Sanchez 2-4 in his last last six road starts and 2-5 in his last seven team starts in June, look for the Jays to complete the hat trick here today.

Info Plays

3* on San Diego Padres -157

Reasons the Padres win:

1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (BALTIMORE) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70), cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games. This is a 94-25 ML System hitting 79% since 1997 while gaining +56.4 units. This system is a PERFECT 11-0 this season.

2.) The Orioles are 19-49 in their last 68 Sunday games. Baltimore is 0-7 in their last 7 games following a win. The Padres are 36-17 in their last 53 games following a loss. After a 1-run loss to the Orioles Saturday, expect a bounce-back blowout Sunday from San Diego. Bet the Padres at home.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -139

The Rockies have an excellent opportunity to pull off the series sweep this afternoon behind Aaron Cook who has been brilliant at home all season. Cook is 2-0 (4-1 on the money line) at home with an ERA of just 2.62. The Rockies are 6-1 in Cook's last 7 home starts and 9-3 in his last 12 starts during game 3 of a series. Wolf has struggled for the Brewers (7.36 ERA L3 starts), and even though he is coming off a rare strong performance, it doesn't inspire much confidence when you consider that the Brewers are 0-5 in his last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. It is also worth noting that the Brew Crew have been a lousy dog, going just 3-14 in their last 17 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 1-7 in their last 8 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Meanwhile, the Rockies are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite, and I'll stick with them in the chalk here today.

Sac Lawson

CWS (-110) vs WAS
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I simply have to keep riding this White Sox team. They continue to simply find ways to win baseball games. Yesterday's game wasn't pretty, but the pitching staff came through behind Jake Peavy's great game. Today, I expect to see plenty of runs scored. John Lannan is really struggling this season, just one year off of being named the teams ace. Unfortunate really, but in reality the guy has never had amazing stuff. He's got a plus curveball, but a fastball that is anywhere between 86-89. Not amazing. From what I've heard, Lannan has been tipping people on his curveball. And in reality, that's the only thing he has to keep hitters off balance. If they know it's coming, he's one of the easiest guys to hit in the league. On top of that, he's coming off an elbow injury that scouts say has completely screwed up his mechanics. The guy is now constantly making adjustments on the mound and thinking about his arm slot. Pitching is like golf, if you're up there thinking about your swing mechanics, the end result will be trash. Lannan is standing on the mound thinking about getting his arm too low, and it's costing him. I don't see that changing in the immediate future. And I see the Sox taking advantage of his extremely high opponent BA.
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On the other side, Freddy Garcia has been rock solid all year long for the Sox. He's dependable, and consistently getting them 6-7 innings of 2-4 run baseball. I'll take that any day. Especially since I truly believe Lannan will give up more than that himself. And on top of those expectations, I know we've got the far better bullpen, which is now fully rested as well (since Peavy went CG yesterday).
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Love the bullpen edge, especially since Washington is likely without Sean Burnett, and I can definitely see Freddy Garcia out-pitching Lannan. Expect the HOT HOT HOT Sox to continue to find ways to win, and do so today by plating some runs!

ANA (+110) vs CHC
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It's been one up n down year for Joe Saunders... And it's been one, just down, year for Carlos Zambrano. So why go Saunders here? The guy is coming off a terrible start, and in his career, literally (I'm not making this up) anytime Saunders has a game where he concedes over 5 earned runs, he has bounced back his next game and given up 1 run or less 70% of the time. Basically, 40-50% of the time he bounces back from giving up 6 or 7 earned runs and pitches a shutout. The guy simply knows his stuff, and whether it's mechanical or mental, he's always been able to fix it in 5 days. That right there takes guts, and determination. I respect the hell outta that, and I fully expect him to bounce back with a strong performance again today.
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I know it's tough to take the Angels to sweep the Cubs AT Wrigley. Trust me, if there was one thing that was going to keep me from making this play it was the fact that this is for a sweep. But i truly believe that Saunders is a great option. In fact, I fully expect Carlos to pitch well today himself. The guy is starting to figure out his stuff, and although he's lost about 4mph worth of fastball velocity, he can still be effective at the major league level. Unfortunately, that effectiveness can't come from overpowering people anymore. He knows that, and as a result he's tried to paint corners. As a result of that his walks are through the roof. Not a big deal, as long as you disallow those runs from scoring... BUT, it does mean that he won't go deep into games, and it means that the Cubs bullpen will be leaned upon for three innings of work most likely. That's NOT good. The first team to go to the middle relievers tonight loses. Simple as that. Both of these teams can lock it down in the 8th and 9th. It's the team with the starter that goes 7 innings that wins. I simply don't see any way Carlos Zambrano can pitch 7 innings right now. Gotta go against the Cubbies and take the Angels at this nice dog price.

EZWINNERS
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Philadelphia Phillies -210
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The Twins starting pitcher Carl Pavano has won his last two starts and three of his last four but hasn't exactly been lights out over that stretch or this season. Pavano is a game over .500 for this season and has an ERA of almost 4 runs per game. Pavano is usually the recipient of some solid run support, but I don't expect that run support to be there today. The Phillies send their ace Roy Halliday to the mound and I expect a very good game from him here after taking a beating at the hands of the Yankees in his last start. The Phillies bats have come to life and and Halliday is 8-1 with a 2.90 ERA in his career against the Twins. Look for Halliday to get back on track here. Play on Philadelphia.

Jim Feist

A's at Cardinals

The Oakland A's were fighting for the top spot in the AL West until lately. The A's have lost four straight and eight of their last 10 games after Saturday's setback to the Cardinals, 4-3. The A's have a good chance of snapping that losing streak, as Trevor Cahill goes to the mound. The 22-year old right-hander is having a fine season with a 6-2 mark and 3.23 ERA with 1.17 WHIP. Cahill has won five straight games for the A's and has allowed just three homes runs since his first start of the season where he allowed three round-trippers in one game. Meanwhile the Cardinals are trying to hold onto first place in the NL Central with Cincinnati just one game back. The Cards turn to 35-year old Jeff Suppan today. Suppan looks like he's in the last throws of his career with his 0-2 record, 7.20 ERA and sky-high 1.94 WHIP. Suppan came over to the Cardinals in June after a stint with the Brewers. What a contrast of pitchers today with the young stud in Cahill against the veteran Suppan who's best years are definitely behind him. I'll take the A's here today as I doubt Suppan will give the Cardinals many quality innings.

Chuck O'Brien

Minnesota at PHILADELPHIA

Sunday’s complimentary selection comes from Philadelphia, as we’ll play Roy Halladay and the Phillies -1½ runs against the Twins.

Halladay is coming off his second-worst outing of the season, as he gave up six runs (three HRs) in six innings of an 8-3 loss at the Yankees. But one thing Halladay has shown this season is an ability to rebound from bad outings. In fact, he’s given up more than two earned runs only three times this season (including Tuesday in New York). How did he follow up the first two bad performances? With a pair of complete games, including his perfect game against the Marlins and a 10-0 three-hitter against the Mets.

Halladay also has terrific career numbers against the Twins. During his time with the Blue Jays, Halladay faced Minnesota 13 times (11 starts), going 8-1 with a 2.90 ERA. And despite just a 4-3 record, Halladay has pitched very well in his new home ballpark, posting a 2.35 ERA at Citizens Bank Park (and if you take away one bad start against the Red Sox when he gave up seven runs – six earned – in 5 2/3 innings, that home ERA drops to 1.50!).

Put it all together and it’s a pretty good bet that we’ll see a strong effort from Halladay today. However, I wouldn’t expect the same from Minnesota right-hander Carl Pavano. Yes, Pavano has been solid enough this year, but he’s lost his last three road starts with an ERA of nearly 5.70. And those three defeats were by margins of 3, 9 and 3 runs. Additionally, Pavano has a 4.86 ERA in 20 career starts against the Phillies, and that includes two poor games at Citizens Bank (11 runs allowed in 11 innings).

Despite blowing a five-run ninth-inning lead on Saturday, the Phillies are back on an upswing, and with their bats heating up again and their ace on the bump looking to bounce back from a rough start, I smell a comfortable victory for the home team.

5♦ PHILADELPHIA -1.5

Bobby Maxwell

Oakland (+110) at ST. LOUIS

My FREE play record is at 111-94-3 and today I have a comp winner for you on the A's as they are in St. Louis to take on the Cardinals.

The A’s right-hander Trevor Cahill (6-2, 3.23 ERA) has been Mr. Consistency lately, getting wins in five of his last six starts with the other a no-decision. I’ll gladly take the plus-money with him today in St. Louis.

Cahill wasn’t at his best on Tuesday when the Cubs got him for four runs in 5.2 innings, but his offense rallied and scored the 9-5 victory. But in his previous five outings, Cahill was on fire, limiting the opposition to one run in four starts and three runs in the other. His last two roadies before the Cubs on Tuesday were in Baltimore and in Detroit when he allowed a combined two runs on seven hits in 12.1 innings of easy Oakland victories.

For some reason, Cahill loves pitching in June. In his nine career starts in the month, he’s 5-1 with a 3.81 ERA. The A’s have won his two interleague starts so far this season and I think he’ll pitch well today in St. Louis.

Jeff Suppan (0-2, 7.20 ERA) is on the hill for the Cardinals today basically pitching for a spot on this team. He was released by the Brewers back in early June and made his first start for the Cardinals on Tuesday at home against the Mariners, allowing one run in four innings, getting a no-decision. He has not been sharp at all this season and over his last 4 innings with the Brewers, he allowed nine runs on 12 hits. The veteran right-hander has never faced the A’s in his career.

Oakland has the much better hurler on the hill today and I’m banking on Cahill delivering the gem and his offense getting plenty of hits against Suppan. Play Oakland today.

4♦ OAKLAND

Karl Garrett

NY Mets at NY YANKEES

Saturday comp play winner on the White Sox, now 24-18-2 the last 34 days with my free plays.

G-Man going to look for another under to be the way to go at Yankee Stadium on Sunday afternoon, as the Mets and the Yanks conclude their interleague rivalry for the 2010 season.

Saturday's game held under the total by a half-run, as the Yankees have now played low in 4 in a row, and 7 of their last 10 games overall.

The Mets meanwhile have now gone under the total in 7 of their last 11 games.

With both Johan Santana and CC Sabathia on top of their game, it is hard for the G-Man to envision much offense at all in this matinee game.

Santana has given up a few runs his last 2 times on the mound, but he has only allowed 12 runs over his last 50-plus innings of work, while Sabathia is a perfect 4-0 with a 3.07 ERA at home this year.

With both teams bats suffering from some power outtages, the G-Man will look to the men on the mound to dominate the hitters, and for this Mets-Yankees game to stay under the posted total.

2♦ UNDER

Jeff Benton

That’s five straight free-play winners as the Rangers took down the Astros again on Saturday and easily covered the run line. In addition to cashing in my last five freebies, I’m now on a 91-59-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Sunday, we’ll play the Royals as a road underdog at Atlanta.

Gotta go against Braves right-hander Kenshin Kawakami. He’s 0-9 with a 4.42 ERA in 13 starts, and Atlanta is 3-10 overall when he pitches. Admittedly, the right-hander has been pitching better of late (three earned runs or fewer allowed in six of his last seven starts, at least six innings pitched in five of his last six outings). However, for whatever reason, the Braves just do not score when Kawakami has the ball. They average barely three runs per game that Kawakami starts, and they managed more than four runs in just three of his 13 outings (the only three games Atlanta has won with Kawakami starting).

Could Atlanta’s bats heat up in this game against Kyle Davies? It’s possible, considering Davies is really struggling right now, posting a 10.13 ERA in his last four starts. However, the Royals managed to win two of those games, and they’re a respectable 7-6 when he pitches, including 4-3 on the road. Davies has also been a much better pitcher in day games (2.84 ERA) than night games (6.71 ERA).

Bottom line: I know the Braves are vastly superior to Kansas City, as they’ve shown in the first two games of this series.. However, for Atlanta to be laying this big of a price behind a pitcher who is 0-9 on the season is a little ridiculous. And with the Royals playing decent ball right now (5-4 last nine games), I’ll definitely take a shot with this kind of take back.

4♦ KANSAS CITY