Derek Mancini
Bettors seem to think that this is the spot where the Rays snap their slide, but I'm not convinced. If you look at their overall numbers, yes, the Rays' Niemann has far and away better stats than Volstad, but that was also the case a week ago, when these two pitchers met.
I'd be wary of trusting a Rays team that's obviously in a funk, especially when Niemann got lit up by this Marlins offense this past Sunday. Fish collected 9 hits off the Rays righty by 7 different players, including 2 apiece by Ramirez, Cantu and the impressive rookie Stanton. While you expect Niemann will be better in his second time around in less than a week, the Marlins offense is also better at home, averaging 5 runs per game against righties at Sun Life Stadium.
Then there's Volstad, who has been terrible on the road, and yet limited the Rays to 1 run on 4 hits over 6 innings in that June 13th match up. Problem for the Rays is Volstad has been great at home, posting a 2.77 ERA, so there's no reason to think he can't provide another quality effort here. It doesn't hurt that Tampa is suddenly struggling to find their offense, incl. Longoria, who's had real trouble in interleague play.
Keeping this play small, but all you chalk eaters out there be forewarned, this is not a good spot for the Rays. Volstad has been much more effective at home, and with a nice confidence boost from his last start, he could make things very tough for the Rays tonight. Florida (Volstad) over Tampa Bay (Niemann) Saturday.
2♦ FLORIDA MARLINS
Brett Atkins
Delivered the big plus-money free winner on the Twins as they needed extra innings but got the job done in Philadelphia on Saturday. Tonight, I have the same deal, free winner bringing in plus-money on the Dodgers as they wrap up a series in Boston against the Red Sox.
This one could be a great pitching matchup between the Dodgers’ Hiroki Kuroda and Boston’s Clay Buchholz. Kuroda has been stellar in his last two outings, not allowing a run in his last 12 innings, blanking the Cardinals and Reds.
Against St. Louis, he gave up four hits in seven innings, striking out six and walking one. Buchholz has allowed six runs in his last 12.2 innings but he did get the win over the D’Backs on Tuesday.
Both pitchers will dominate tonight, but I expect the Dodgers to be able to plate a few runs of Buchholz while the Boston hitters struggle with Kuroda. Play the plus-money and go with the Dodgers and Kuroda tonight.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS
Joel Tyson
11-4 the last 15 days for free. Winner last night for free on the Indians-Pirates game just going over the total.
After a couple of games which the pitchers have had their way, look for the hitters to go ballistic at Safeco Field this Sunday afternoon.
Aaron Harang comes into this start with a season ERA of 5.44, and his road ERA is a little bit higher at 6.58. In his last start, Harang allowed 5 runs in 4 innings to the Dodgers as he took the loss.
His counterpart Ryan Rowland-Smith has allowed 10 runs over his last 7 innings of work, and has a 0-6 record to show for the season with a 6.88 ERA.
Both teams have been on a slew of under streaks of late, but I gotta tell you, this one is NOT going to stay under.
Hitters feast in the series finale.
4♦ OVER
Tom Freese
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Chicago White Sox at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
White Sox starter Freddie Garcia has allowed 12 runs total in his last 4 starts. Chicago is 13-3 their last 16 Interleague road games. The Pale Hose are 6-0 their last 6 games as favorites. Chicago is 36-16 in the last 52 starts made by Garcia on the road. The White Sox are 11-1 the last 12 starts made by Garcia in Interleague play. Washinton starter John Lannan 17 runs in his last 15.1 innings of work. The Nationals are 61-130 their last 191 games off a loss. Washington is 8-20 their 28 games vs. righty starters and they are 0-5 their last 5 games overall. The Nats are 6-20 their last 26 games as underdogs.
MTi Sports
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
San Francisco Giants at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Blue Jays are 11-1 as a favorite vs a team that has a better record and the Giants are 1-10 on the road as an underdog vs a team that has a worse record. Also, San Francisco is 0-6 when Jonathan Sanchez starts when he is off a quality start in which they won. Consider Toronto.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I believe that Cincinnati will finally come alive at the plate and do just enough in this game to avoid the series sweep in Seattle:
Aaron Harang gets the nod for the visitors; Harang is coming off his worst outing of the season; he'd given up just five earned runs over his previous three starts before allowing five on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings vs. the Dodgers on Tuesday night.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I believe the big right-hander will bounce back tonight though; Harang has made two career starts at Safeco and is 1-0 without allowing a run over 14 1/3 innings with 13 total K's.
Remember as well that Cincinnati has reserved its "best play" for struggling teams this season; 22-12 (+8 units) against clubs with losing records.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
In the other dugout: The beleaguered Ryan Rowland-Smith heads to the mound for the home side; the large lefty has lost his last two starts and is a dismal 0-6 on the season.
Although the M's have been better at the plate of late, Rowland-Smith hasn't been the beneficiary of any of that offensive production.
Although its struggled in almost every single ATS statistical category this year, this is in fact a position that Seattle has done very poorly in all season; it's 6-16 (-12.2 units) in "day games".
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Bottom line: “The last couple of days, we’ve faced two of the American League’s best in King Felix and (Lee) yesterday (in a 1-0 loss),” Reds manager Dusty Baker lamented after yesterday's 5-1 loss to Hernandez. “We just have to come back tomorrow.”
Harang has a 1.32 ERA in four career starts vs. Seattle.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
You may want to take a second look at CINCINNATI in this position as it looks to take advantage of the M's worst starter.
Jeff Alexander
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds -125
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Cincy is solid offensively, hitting .278 and scoring 4.9 runs per game, and its bats give it the edge today against Rowland-Smith, who is 0-6 with an ERA of 6.88 on the season. While Harang has struggled against the NL, he has been effective in interleague play. The Reds have won 6 of his last 8 interleague starts and they have also won 4 of his last 5 starts in the chalk. I really like his chances of being effective today against a club that is hitting just .231 against righty starters. The Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, and I'll back them in this bounce back spot today.
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles +1.48 over BOSTON
Hiroki Kuroda has been very sharp recently and is coming off back-to-back starts in which he did not allow a single run. He threw a seven-inning gem at home against the Cardinals and then threw a five-inning beauty in Cincinnati. In that last game in Cinci, Kuroda started the game and then there was a 2½-hour rain delay after the third inning, yet he still came back and was just as sharp. In his last two starts he’s struck out 14 while walking just three. Clay Buchholz has a 2.67 ERA and nine wins despite displaying pedestrian skills. His walk/SO ratio (34/58) is not strong and his strand rate is an unsustainable 80%. The mediocre 38%/23% quality start/average start here further illustrates that Buchholz has not been ace-caliber despite the appealing surface stats, which may be ripe for a correction. The Red Sox are hot but the Dodgers are still a quality team that can do a lot of damage against pitchers that aren’t sharp, especially right-handers. Play: Los Angeles +1.47 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +2.10 over PHILADLEPHIA
Despite Roy Halliday going, the Twins are too high a price here to pass up on. Halliday needs no introduction, as he’s been as good as any pitcher in the league over the past decade. However, he could be feeling fatigue in his arm due to a ton of innings, the heat and a ton of pitches that he throws each game. In three June starts, Halliday is 1-2 and has a BAA of .286. Halliday has thrown 441 pitches over his last four games and he also had a game recently in which he threw 132 pitches. His two games this season against AL clubs, he allowed six earned runs in both of them. San Fran, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Colorado all had 10 hits against him recently and frankly, he’s been way more hittable this year than in previous years and could get lit up again today by a strong offense that has seen him plenty of times. Carl Pavano is getting stronger with each passing month. His BAA in June is just .235. He also has pinpoint control as evidenced by 14 walks all year in 87.1 frames. And lastly, over the past 12 games, the Twins are batting a combined .292 while the Phillies are hitting 40 points lower at .252. Win or lose, the huge value is on the visitor. Play: Minnesota +2.10 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.69 over ATLANTA
Kyle Davis is not going to dazzle anyone and he could easily get lit up here. His skills have been spiraling out of control and he might even lose his spot in the rotation. Thing is, the Royals are 7-6 when he starts and he seems to always get a lot of run support. Also note the Braves are off on Monday and this is a day game after a night game and in this heat it will give Booby Cox an opportunity to rest a couple of players so that they’ll get two days off instead of one. Of bigger note, however, is that Kenshin Kawakami is winless (0-9) and that plays on one’s mind. The Braves are just 3-10 when he starts and the Royals are very capable of matching the Braves run for run. Kawakami’s numbers are below average right across the board. He’s very likely to give up four, five or six runs. Psychologically, he must feel like that first win is near impossible and if the Royals get to him early he instantly becomes more fragile than he already is. The tag here on Kawakami is simply ridiculous, as the Royals most certainly have a good chance to win. Play: Kansas City +1.69 (Risking 2 units).
Oakland +1.04 over ST. LOUIS
This isn’t Adam Wainwright or Chris Carpenter that the A’s will face. What we have here is the most overrated team in the majors with Jeff Suppan going laying a price, albeit a small one, against a quality pitcher in Trevor Cahill. The Brewers released Suppan and that’s equivalent to being the 11th man on the New Jersey Nets bench. In true Cardinal tradition, they picked up another pitcher off the scrap heap and are looking to work another miracle. It’s unlikely to happen with Suppan. Suppan last compiled an ERA under 4.50 in 2003. His BAA this season before being released was .372 and he also had a WHIP of 1.94. There is nothing to like about the Cardinals other than Albert Pujols and there’s less to like about Suppan. The Cardinals are 38-30 and they’ve had the easiest schedule in the league by far. Its recent string of opponents has been Seattle, Arizona, a sinking Reds squad, Milwaukee, the Cubbies, San Diego, Houston and Pittsburgh. They are never to be trusted when anyone not named Wainwright or Carpenter is going and you can triple that with Suppan going. We could give you all kinds of stats on Cahill but does it really matter? Any tag against Suppan and the Cards is one to seriously consider. Play: Oakland +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +1.50 over SAN DIEGO
The O’s are a complete dumpster fire but they’re still going to win about 40% of its remaining games and those wins have to come from somewhere. What I do know is the Jon Garland should never be –1.60 favorite over anyone because Garland can get lit up anytime by anyone. Current O’s hitters are batting .330 against Garland in 125 career AB’s with Nick Markakis batting .429 and Miguel Tejada batting .406. The bottom line is that Garland is very hittable and has been for years. The gap between Garland’s 3.07 ERA and 4.41 xERA is so large it is unsustainable. Jake Arrieta is not Stephen Strasburgh but in two starts covering 13 frames he’s only allowed seven hits. Those seven hits came against the Yanks and Giants and he’s certainly not taking a step up in class here. The O’s do not have much to look forward to but Arrieta has breathed some life into them when he takes the mound and in fact, they won both his starts thus far and at this price against Garland they absolutely have a chance to complete the trifecta. Play: Baltimore +1.50 (Risking 2 units).
Insider Angles
Aaron Harang has had a disappointing season for the Cincinnati Reds, but he had looked better lately before getting touched up in his last start, and he should appreciate facing the Seattle Mariners lineup here.
Harang is just 5-6 with a 5.44 ERA for the year, but he had allowed two runs or less in three straight starts before the Dodgers reached him for five runs in 4.1 innings on Tuesday. Still, we expect a nice bounce-back effort here vs. a Mariners team that is dead last in the American League in batting average (.240) and second to last in runs scored ahead of only the pathetic Baltimore Orioles attack.
Harang is a perfect four for four in Quality Starts in his career vs. Seattle, and he is facing a Mariners lineup that is batting a microscopic .205 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games, averaging a disgusting 2.20 runs per game overall in those contests.
Seattle counters with the winless Ryan Rowland-Smith, who is 0-6 personally with the Mariners as a team going just 2-9 in his 11 starts. Then again, that is to be expected when you post a 6.63 ERA and 1.78 WHIP overall, as Rowland-Smith has. Worst of all, his already ugly WHIP actually rises to 1.91 over the last three starts, and it is very difficult to pitch in the Major Leagues when you are almost always pitching with two men on base.
We suggest you get on the Reds listing these pitchers as soon as possible, as this line seems to already be on the rise. However, you can still get Cincinnati at -125 at BetJamaica.
Pick: Reds -125
Wunderdog
Mets at Yankees
Pick: Under 8.5
This is a great primetime matchup for a pair of New York rivals. Johan Santana faces C.C. Sabathia. These are two pitchers both capable of putting up 0s deep into the game. Both of these teams are strong when you get to the back of the pen, avoiding the weak underbelly of the bullpen. The Mets are 7-0 to the UNDER in their last seven on the road vs. a team with a winning percentage greater than .600. The Yankees are 8-1 to the UNDER behind Sabathia at home vs. a winning team. The UNDER gets the call.
Larry Ness
Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are getting some help from the Red Sox and Jays this weekend (Red Sox have beaten the Dodgers in both games so far, as have the Jays vs the Giants), plus even the Orioles have been able to split two games in San Diego vs the Padres. The Rockies own 2-0 and 8-7 wins over the Brewers the last two days, allowing Colorado to close to within two games of the Padres in the NL West (Dodgers and Giants are still between Colorado and San Diego). Colorado's Aaron Cook is an unimpressive 2-4 with a 5.15 ERA in 13 starts this season (Rockies are 6-7) but while he's been AWFUL on the road (0-4 with a 7.26 ERA / team is 2-6), he's 2-0 with a 2.62 ERA at home in five starts (team is 4-1). Milwaukee's Randy Wolf is 5-6 with a 5.08 ERA in 14 starts (team is 6-8) but unlike Cook, he's been equally bad both home and away. The Brewers are 3-4 in Wolf's home and road starts with Wolf posting a 5.14 ERA away from home and 5.02 at Miller Park. Rockies get the home sweep as and with a little help from their 'friends' (Jays, Orioles and Red Sox), could be "playing for first place" come the beginning of next week.
Hollywood Sports
Reds at Mariners
Play: Over
While the Reds' Aaron Harang is 5-6 with an unimpressive 5.44 ERA, he has been particularly bad on the road this season with a 6.58 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .363. This is consistent with his road-home splits last season where Harang had a 5.18 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the road but a better 3.43 ERA and 1.23 WHIP at home in '09. He faces the Mariners' Ryan Rowland-Smith who has really struggled this season given his 0-6 record and a 6.33 ERA. Both of these pitchers share a troubling statistic that strongly suggests that they both will experience hard times in the future. Isolated Power (ISO) is a metric number determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Harang and Rowland-Smith have high ISO's of .180 and .262(!) respectively which indicates they both have been giving up a disproportionate amount of extra-base hits. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it helps expose a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we can get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which helps produce a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future. Take the Over here while listing both pitchers.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels have pounded the Cubs in the first two games of this series, winning by a combined margin of 19-6. In the last ten games the Angels are 7-3 while batting .282 and Los Angeles continues to be an effective road team with a 22-17 record and solid overall production numbers. Los Angeles is 12-2 in the last 14 road contests and the Angels should be in position for another strong effort against the sinking Cubs.
Chicago is 6-12 in the last 18 games and even at Wrigley Field the Cubs have a losing record. Injuries have taken a toll but Cubs continue to struggle at the plate, batting just .242 in the last ten games. Chicago does have slightly better numbers against left-handed pitching but a key component to those statistics, Aramis Ramirez, will be out of the lineup. Joe Saunders has not allowed more than one earned run in any of his last four road starts and the Angels are 4-0 in those games. For the season Saunders owns a 2.45 ERA and Los Angeles is 9-0 in the last nine games as underdogs.
Carlos Zambrano has been moved back to a starting role but in three starts he has allowed eleven runs. Walks continue to be a problem for Zambrano as he has not found his control and his ERA is still 5.66 for the season with a 1.70 WHIP. Both teams have had issues in the bullpen this season but the Angels have been the far more consistent offensive team and with underdog pricing the Angels should be more than capable of completing the sweep in this match-up.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners
Seattle's Ryan Rowland-Smith is just 0-6 this season with a 6.88 ERA. The lefty has certainly struggled allowing 13 homeruns in just over 56 innings of work. Unfortunately for him is that he will have to face a strong offense in the Cincinnati Reds who are scoring 4.9 runs per game and batting .277 against left-handers this season. Seattle is just 6-16 SU in day games this season. Look for the Reds to spoil the sweep today at SafeCo Field.
Play on: Cincinnati Reds
O.C. Dooley
Houston Astros +145
The law of averages are against a Texas contingent that has ripped off 7 consecutive road victories for the first time in franchise history. The last time that Texas strung together 8 consecutive triumphs no matter what the location was way back in the 2005 campaign so they are in rarified air so to speak. I will admit that the Rangers are a blistering 14-4 overall in the month of June and have scored a grand total of 40 runs during their current winning streak, but what are the odds of them sweeping an "in state" series AT Houston for a second consecutive year? There is a "red flag" as today's Texas starter C.J. Wilson issued a season high 6 different WALKS last time on the mound and is facing an opposing pitcher who does strike out alot of batters. Felipe Paulino (1-8) may have an awful record and was pounded for 10 runs last time on the mound, but he has statistically produced decent numbers for Houston all year. Here is an impressive 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (35-16 past five years) which plays ON home underdogs like Houston starting a pitcher who averages 5+ STRIKEOUTS per assignment. What makes this 70% system so interesting is that it is exclusive to SUNDAY.