Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday June, 24

John Ryan

New York Yankees at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Yankees

5* graded play on the New York Yankees as they take on the Mets set to start at 8:00 PM ET and will be televised by ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. This is certainly a marquee game given the matchups.

R.A. Dickey starts for the Mets and his combination of knuckle ball and fastball has earned him an 11-1 record where he has not allowed an earned run in five straight starts and has struck out a minimum of eight batters in those five starts. However, I strongly believe the Yankees hard hitting power lineup will be the most difficult for Dickey to get through this season.

C.C. Sabathia is a proven veteran accustomed to the spotlight of National TV exposure. Dickey?s life story of overcoming monumental horrific experiences is certainly one of the most inspiring of its? kind and I do believe is one of the dominant reasons he has such mental toughness while on the hill. Yet, as much as I love his story, these Yankees are hot and I do believe they will defeat Dickey and win the game.

On paper the Yankees are the better team with a superior offensive lineup and better pitching staff based on the a wide array of statistical measures. The Yankees rank ninth with a .260 in MLB with a team batting average, 16th averaging 34.1 at-bats per game, 17th with 2.619 plate appearances, sixth averaging 4.75 runs per game, ninth averaging 8.87 hits per game, first averaging 1.54 home runs per game, ninth averaging 7.01 strikeouts per game, and 27th hitting into an average of 0.91 twin killings per game.

By comparison, the Mets rank 14th in MLB with a .255 team batting average, 25th averaging 33.44 at-bats per game, ninth with 2.639 plate appearances, 10th averaging 4.43 runs per game, 17th averaging 8.54 hits per game, 26th averaging 0.79 home runs per game, 20th averaging 7.81 strikeouts per game, sixth averaging 3.43 walks per game, and ninth hitting into just 0.67 double plays per game. Take the Yankees Sunday Night.

Marc Lawrence

Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox and Braves wrap up their three-game Interleague series at Fenway Park Sunday afternoon where Aaron Cook takes the mound in a 'born-again' opportunity to regain a starting spot in a MLB rotation when he opposes Mike Minor. With Cook 3-0 at home in his career team starts against the Braves, and Minor in struggling current form, look for the Bosox to improve to 14-5 in this series here this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on Boston.

Hollywood Sports

San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics

Oakland (34-38) was going to a big bounce-back play for us after their 9-8 loss on Saturday -- but this was predicated on Brandon McCarthy being on the mound. McCarthy abruptly ended a pitching session on Saturday with pain in his shoulder and he has been scratched from this start. Instead, the A's have called up Griffin up from Triple-A for this start -- and while this play is not nearly as strong as it was with a (healthy) McCarthy, there is still enough to like Oakland in this situation as a bigger underdog now. The A's have won 8 of their last 10 games in Interleague play. The A's have also won 4 straight home games when an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. San Francisco (40-32) may have won the first two games of this series -- but they have dropped 4 straight Game Threes. The Giants have also lost a decisive 21 of their last 29 road games in Interleague play against teams with a losing record. They counter with Matt Cain who is enjoying an outstanding season himself with his 9-2 record along with a 2.34 ERA and a 0.91 opponent's batting average. But there a few reasons that suggest he is a bit overvalued in this spot. Cain has been very fortunate with ground balls given his opponent's Batting Average for the ground Balls he is allowing Into Play (GB BABIP*) of .187 which is much lower than the Giants' defensive GB BABIP of .230. He should see that number regress back up to the San Fran mean which will result in him giving up more base hits. That is part of the reason that his SIERA** predicts an ERA of 2.99 for Cain moving forward. While that is still a outstanding number, it is over 25% increase in the runs he will likely allow in the future. Furthermore, Cain has been particularly tough at home this season where he sports a 1.45 ERA, 0.61 WHIP and .150 opponent's batting average at home in AT&T Park. But on the road, the veteran right-hander has been hittable with his 3.48 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .254 opponent's batting average this season. That helps explain why the Giants have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with Cain pitching as a favorite in the -110 to -150 price range. Oakland has won 7 of their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Take the money line on the Oakland A's versus the San Francisco Giants while listing both starting pitchers A.J. Griffin and Matt Cain.

Scott Spreitzer

Twins at Reds
Play: Over

One of the things I like to do in handicapping baseball is locating pitchers who look primed to head in the opposite direction of somewhat recent form before the books catch up. I believe we have that situation with Twins' hurler Scott Diamond. The lefthander owns strong overall numbers on paper, but he has a hefty road WHIP of 1.52 to go along with a .323 BAA. Opponents have been getting guys on base, but have fallen short when it comes to bringing base runners home. However, with numbers like that, it's only a matter of time before Diamond gets roughed up. His last two starts have not gone quite so well, allowing 8 earned runs and 17 base runners in 11 1/3 innings with just 2 strikeouts. He'll face a Reds' "hit squad" that plates nearly 6 rpg in home day action. The Reds will counter with Mike Leake. The righty has had a tough season at home, especially in his last three outings where he's been tagged with a 6.00 ERA & 1.73 WHIP. Cincinnati and their "guests" have scored a combined 64 runs in Leake's last six home starts. The 24-year old has truly struggled under the sun where he's been saddled with a 7.16 ERA & 1.71 WHIP in three daytime starts. Great American owns Major League Baseball's 7th highest OPS and I'm betting we'll see enough on base action to send this matchup Over the posted total. I'm recommending a play on the Over between the Twins & Reds (Diamond & Leake) on Sunday afternoon.

Steve Merril

Brewers vs. White Sox
Play: Under 9

Two rookies take the mound in Chicago on Sunday afternoon as the White Sox and Brewers wrap up their series. Jose Quintana has been great for Chicago going 2-1 with a 1.86 ERA in five starts. The southpaw has shown great control with only four walks in 29 innings and just one walk in his last three starts overall. Quintana is coming off a great outing against the Dodgers allowing just five hits in eight innings. The Brewers are struggling on the road despite their output on Saturday night as they are hitting right around .230 as a team. They are hitting .247 against left-handed starters as well. The Chicago bullpen helped hammer down their win yesterday. Michael Fiers has been good for Milwaukee. He is 2-2 with a 3.60 ERA in four starts. His best work has been done on the road where he has allowed only 2 runs and nine hits in 14 innings. He beat the Twins his last time out after allowing just 1 run and four hits in seven innings. The White Sox are hitting just over .215 in their last eight games. They have been an inconsistent offense this season and they are prone to going back and forth between good and bad. They have gone Under the total in four of their last six games and they should struggle with Fiers. We expect a low-scoring game between the Brewers and White Sox on Sunday afternoon.

Rob Vinciletti

Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are too heavily favored to unit rate. However for the free play there definitely worth the beer and Pizza wager. Detroit applies to a 90% System that plays on road favorites at -140 or higher off a road favored loss at -140 or more and scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits with no more than one error,vs an opponent off a home dog win and scored 4 or less runs with no errors. The Tigers have Verlander going and he has a solid 2.13 Era over his last 3 starts all wins for Detroit. He has won is last 2 starts vs the Pirates and has a 1.13 era vs Pittsburgh. The Tigers are 13-2 as a road favorite from -150 to -175 and have won 8 of 11 on Sunday. Look for Verlander to out pitch K. Correia. For the free play take the Tigers.

Ben Burns

Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres

With their ace on the mound, the Mariners won yesterday's game by a score of 5-1. I expect the Padres to return the favor in this afternoon's rubber match.

Volquez is only 1-4 at home this season. However, he's got a respectable 3.88 ERA in nine starts here. In 53 innings pitched here, he's recorded 53 Ks and served up only three home runs.

Noessi got rocked again on the road last time out. In eight starts away from Safeco, he's 0-4 with a terrible 8.06 ERA. In 41 road innings, he's served up a whopping 10 home runs.

The M's are 43-77 (-31.9) in day games the past few seasons. During the same stretch, the Padres are a surprising 72-67 (+13.7) when playing during the day. Consider San Diego.

Jesse Schule

New York Yankees (@ New York Mets
PICK: New York Mets First 5 Innings

If there is a such thing as a pitcher that is "unhittable", surely that is the Mets right-hander R.A. Dickey. He has put together back to back one-hitters, and hasn't allowed an earned run in his last five starts. Dickey will test his luck today against the Yankees, who have hit more home runs than any other team in baseball. Dickey (11-1, 2.00 ERA) has only been taken yard three times in his last ten starts, so something will have to give here today. I like Dickey's chances of shutting down the high powered offense of the Bronx Bombers, at least in the early going.

The Yankees will hand the ball to hulking left-hander C.C. Sabathia. The Yankees ace is coming off back to back wins, including a complete game in his last start. Sabathia (9-3, 3.55 ERA) is dominant in his own right, overpowering hitters with his fastball. That being said, he doesn't put up a lot of zeros in the stat columns, as does Dickey. He gave up double digits in hits two weeks ago versus the Braves, and he has allowed seven or more hits in all but two of his last ten games. He has allowed two or more earned runs in all but one of his last ten outings. Sabathia relies on getting run support, but that might be easier said than done here today against Dickey.

The Mets offense is getting the job done lately, prior to losing yesterday against the Yankees, they had won four straight games and scored 20 runs during that stretch. They should be able to get something going against Sabathia here in the early going, and if Dickey continues to dominate as he has done all year, they won't need much. I think playing this game for five innings presents us with much better value, eliminating the threat of a late game collapse, or a mishap with the bullpen.

Jimmy Boyd

Houston Astros -115

Cleveland is just 5-14 against southpaw starters this season as it is only batting .219 and scoring just 3.5 runs per game against them. This gives the edge to Houston with the lefty J.A. Happ on the hill. He's a respectable 5-4 with a 4.08 ERA in 9 home starts this season. In addition, Cleveland's Derek Lowe is really struggling. He has a 9.56 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 6.18 road ERA on the season. He has given up 7 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 5 starts. Happ, meanwhile, has given up 3 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 7 starts. The Astros are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 while the Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Take Houston.

Dave Cokin

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

Garrett Richards is misleadingly hot for the Halos. That BB rate is too high and that ERA is a bit of a fraud. That makes him overpriced and I'm therefore going for the big dog odds with the Dodgers to upset the Angels today.

Jim Feist

Indians vs Astros
Pick: Over

The AL Central could be the weakest division in baseball and the Indians still sit in first place, though that lead is just one-game over the White Sox. In fact, just 5 1/2 game separate the top four teams in the division. Cleveland beat the Astros on Friday and then got beaten on Saturday, 8-1. Now they will look to keep hold of their AL Central lead with a series win here on Sunday. For a division leading club, the Indians are pretty average offensively, just 14th in runs scored in the AL and 18th in bating average. More surprising is a first place team with a 2nd to worst pitching staff. The Indians allow an average of 4.80 runs per game this year, a 2nd worst team of ERA of 4.44 and a high WHIP of 1.381. The Houston Astros are fifth in the NL Central, now 10 1/2 games back of the Reds. Even with Saturday's win over the Tribe, the Astros have won just three of their last 10 games. The Astros are near the bottom of the NL in most hitting categories; 21st in runs and 20th in batting average. Derek Lowe starts today for the Tribe with a 7-5 record and 4.30 ERA. But for a low-ball pitcher, he has a high WHIP of 1.58. Lowe has also lost four of his last five decisions. J.A. Happ will get the start for the Astros. Happ is 5-7 this year with a 5.15 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Have to wonder how long either of these pitchers will last toaday as neither is a bargain. The easy thing to do here is forget the sides and just play the OVER. My free play for Sunday is to take the OVER.

SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis -1½ +107 over KANSAS CITY

The Cardinals .749 league leading road OPS is not getting worse against this reeling pitching staff. St. Louis has scored 19 runs in the first two games of this series and another outburst today would not surprise. Jonathan Sanchez has one foot in the grave in terms of keeping his job. He’s completely lost it and the only reason he hasn’t been released yet is because of his $5.6M salary. Sanchez’s fastball has seen a steady decline all season and that’s the first sign of a “dead” arm. As a result, he’s throwing his ineffective changeup 33% of the time and his 86 MPH fastball 18% less of the time. He has 28 walks and 25 K’s in 36 frames this season. Sanchez is a southpaw and will face a St. Louis club that is leading the league against lefties with a BA of .280. Lance Lynn has outstanding skills right across the board that include an elite strikeout rate (90 K’s in 87 IP), an elite groundball rate of 52%, great control and an xERA of 3.14. Need we say more? Play: St. Louis -1½ +107 (Risking 2 units).

Michael Alexander

Cleveland Indians vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros

CLEVELAND is 8-20 in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record

HOUSTON is 36-15 in their last 51 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150

CLEVELAND is 3-13 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Ross King

Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -1.5

Colorado 2-12 versus American Leauge teams currently and currently 2-9 on Sundays.Texas 19-7 currently after a loss and in interleauge play 13-4.Factor in the starters Colorado White is 2-5 with an e.r.a of 6.06 who allowed 5 runs in under 4 innings versus the Phillies in his last start and Harrison for Texas who is 5-0 with an e.r.a of 1.43 in his last 6 starts.Take Texas lay the run and a half to get the win tonight in Texas by atleast 2 runs as your freeplay winner.