Steve Janus
New York Mets +104
There's no reason the Mets should be an underdog at home tonight against the Yankees. New York will send out first-half sensation R.A. Dickey, who is an unbelievable 11-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in 14 starts. Dickey hasn't allowed a single earned in his last 42 and 2/3 innings of work.
While Dickey hasn't faced the Yankees in 2012, he went 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA in two starts against them in 2011.
While New York is one of the best teams in baseball and will send out their ace C.C. Sabathia, they should not be favored in this game. Dickey has without question been the better of the two starters in 2012. In fact, the Yankees are just 2-5 in Sabathia's last 7 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and are 0-4 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
New York is 10-1 in Dickeys last 11 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150, 8-0 in Dickeys last 8 home starts, and 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Indians +109
The Cleveland Indians should not be an underdog to the Houston Astros Sunday. Houston is just 29-42 on the season, and J.A. Happ is one of the worst starters in baseball.
Happ is 5-7 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.538 WHIP in 14 starts this season, and 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in his last three starts. Derek Lowe has fared well for Cleveland this year, going 7-5 with a 4.30 ERA in 14 starts.
Happ is 3-18 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 5-1 in Lowe's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Astros are 16-35 in Happ's last 51 starts. Bet the Indians Sunday.
Rob Veno
Washington at Baltimore
Recommendation: Over
The Orioles bats have gone to sleep in their last eight games scoring only 15 runs and hitting a meager .174. Prior to the slump, Baltimore had torn the cover off the ball scoring 44 runs in the six games previous to this skid. The extended slump is something every team encounters during the 162 game season but the O’s have good reason for this one as they’ve faced outstanding pitching during this stretch. New York’s R.A. Dickey and Johann Santana, Atlanta’s Brandon Beachy (prior to his injury) and Tommy Hanson and Washington’s Jordan Zimmerman and Edwin Jackson have all thrown gems against Baltimore but today things should change. Washington starter Ross Detwiler was hit hard by the Orioles last month allowing 10 base runners and six earned runs in five innings. It was part of a three-game span which saw Detwiler post a 1.56 WHIP and 7.31 ERA against light hitting Pittsburgh and San Diego along with the Orioles. After nearly a month long bullpen stint, this is his first start and Baltimore should be ready to pounce on him. Things should open up offensively for the Nationals here as well since Baltimore Jake Arrietta has yet to get untracked this season. His erratic nature is displayed by the fact that he held Washington to one run in seven innings back on May 18th (struck out nine) and since then has registered one quality start in six assignments (32.2 IP, 1.59 WHIP, 7.71 ERA). Expect the bats to be productive in a good hitter’s environment today and they figure to do enough damage to send this game over the current total of nine.
JEFF BENTON
Your Sunday freebie is the Under in tonight's Yankees-Mets series finale.
Sometimes it really is that obvious.
Three of the last four meetings this season (including last night) between the teams have held Under the total.
Six of the last eight overall meetings between the teams dating back to last season between the teams have also held Under the total.
Throw into that equation the best pitcher in baseball this season, R.A. Dickey who is coming off of back-to-back one-hit shutouts, and who is the owner of an ERA of just 2.00 for the season, and chances we are going to see an offensive eruption from the Yankees are minimal.
As for the Yankees, they counter with C.C. Sabathia whose last start was a complete game win over the Braves in which he allowed just two runs and struck out an impressive ten batters.
Sabathia has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last ten assignments.
With two pitchers giving no quarter, look for tonight's ESPN game to be a tightly contested, low-scoring battle at Citi Field.
Play the Under in the Yankees-Mets game.
4♦ UNDER
CHRIS JORDAN
I like the Miami Marlins to get it done early today, as my free pick for Sunday, and I want you listing Mark Buehrle over the Toronto Blue Jays and Jesse Chavez. As I release this game at 1:30 a.m. pacific, the line is at -140, a line I will lay with plenty of confidence.
Fact is, I like Buehrle to dominate Toronto's lineup. I know he's in after allowing six runs in his last trip to the rubber, giving up a season-high three home runs versus the Red Sox, but he's much better than that and should be revved up to avenge that last start. Though he is 5-8 on the year, he has a 3.82 ERA, which is respectable considering the division he pitches in and opponents he's faced.
The left-hander has lost four straight starts, yes, but he's also 6-4 against Toronto in 16 career appearances, including 15 starts.
Meanwhile, Chavez is in after lasting a mere 2-2/3 innings during his first start of the season, last Tuesday in Milwaukee. Just like that, he has a whopping ERA of 8.22. He walked four batters and looked frustrated on the hill, struggling to throw strikes in key scenarios en route to allowing four earned runs.
Take the Marlins, as they snap their skid and roll to an easy win.
2♦ MIAMI
SCOTT DELANEY
Now, for my free winner today I'm taking the Washington Nationals over the Baltimore Orioles in this D.C./Maryland-area, and I want you listing both pitchers as well, as I think Ross Detwiler is the better choice over Jake Arrieta.
It's no surprise Camden Yards has been packed for the first couple games in this Interleague rivalry, and they haven't been disappointed one bit, as we've seen some impressive pitching. Today should be no different, as the league-leading Nationals (2.96) continue to amaze me with their pitching staff, which not only ranks No. 1 overall in ERA, but also tops the league with an ERA of 3.01 by the team's starters, and fifth with its relievers' ERA of 2.90.
With Detwiler, we have a kid who moves back into the rotation, taking the place of struggling Chien-Ming Wang. And I'm banking on the southpaw to maek the most of his opportunity.
He's looked good in not allowing a hit over his last 7-1/3 innings he's pitched coming out of the bullpen.
Arrieta, meanwhile, is 3-9 this season and has a 5.83 ERA to go along with his disappointing record. He's 1-2 with a 7.00 ERA over his last three starts, and today doesn't get any easier.
2♦ WASHINGTON
CHUCK O'BRIEN
My free pick for Sunday is going to be the St. Louis Cardinals over the Kansas City Royals, and I want you listing both Lance Lynn and Jonathan Sanchez in this game. This, without a doubt, is a complete pitching mismatch in favor of the defending World Series champion Cardinals.
Lynn, the Cardinals' minor league pitcher of the year in 2009, has been unreal this season and undoubtedly will be out to avenge his last start, last Tuesday, when he was denied his 11th win by the Detroit Tigers, who scored four runs in the first couple innings. He needed 50 pitches to get through those first two innings, but something tells me he's going to be more like the pitcher who is 10-3 this season, with a 2.80 ERA.
The 6-foot-6, 260-pound hurler has a dominant presence up on that mound, and frustrates opposing hitters with a hard sinker mixed with an effective changeup and breaking ball. What I like most, is he's an intelligent pitcher who know how to use his arsenal, spread his pitches out and won't force anything knowing he isn't a power pitcher.
He's going to be much better today, than Sanchez, who is 1-3 with a 5.70 ERA on the year, and more recently, is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA in his last three starts, over which he lasted only 14 innings and walked nine versus 10 strikeouts. Now he takes on a hungry Cardinals team that has won two straight and would love to head back into National League play on a three-game win streak, sitting just a few games back of the National League Central-leading Cincinnati Reds.
St. Louis has won 21 of the last 28 meetings here in Kansas City, and is 5-2 most recently in this series, overall.
Lay the money with the Redbirds.
2♦ ST. LOUIS
MATT RIVERS
Your free play for Sunday is to lay the road wood with the Cardinals to complete their sweep of the Royals.
Yeah, the price is a little "rich", but how can you not lay it?
Seriously, St. Louis has crushed Kansas City pitching the past two days, ringing up 11 runs on Friday, and 8 runs yesterday, as the Cardinals are all lined up for a sweep outscoring the Royals 19-6 the past two days.
Lance Lynn is coming off his worst start in quite some time, as he took the loss in Detroit allowing 5 runs in his 5 innings of work. Still, it is hard to argue the fact that Lynn is 10-3 for the season, and a solid 6-2 with a 2.93 ERA in his road starts this season.
Jonathan Sanchez has been an enigma for Kansas City this season, and the fact St. Louis well remembers him from his days in San Francisco should bode well for the red-hot redbird bats.
Unload with the Cardinals to complete the sweep.
3♦ ST. LOUIS
DOM CHAMBERS
For my free plays, this is going to be winning day # 4 of 5.
Let’s take a look at the San Francisco Giants to beat the Oakland A’s.
This is going to be a pitcher’s duel as the A’s start Brandon McCarthy, who is 6-3 with a 2.54 ERA. He’s been pretty good in his last three starts as he has gone 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA.
But the Giants are starting Matt Cain. He is two games removed from his perfect game. But that perfect game was just a highlight in a stretch this pitcher has been in.
He has won eight straight starts and has given up one or fewer runs in five of those games.
As good as McCarthy has pitched, Cain is better. Overall is 9-2 with a 2.34 ERA. In his last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA.
People like to fade pitchers after perfect games and no-hitters. What did Cain do, just win again.
I expect another great performance here. The Giants will need to get a couple of runs that should be enough run support for him.
The Giants have the big pitching edge.
Take the Giants.
3♦ GIANTS
CRAIG DAVIS
Today's free play is on the Texas Rangers to absolutely maul the Colorado Rockies.
Colorado isn't used to this Texas heat, and by gametime we'll see temps into the 100s. Not good for the mountain-air boys at all.
Matt Harrison takes the hill for the Rangers with his team-best 9-3 record and 3.41 ERA to go along with his 1.18 WHIP. Honestly, this is as much against the Rockies as it is for Texas, because I have absolutely no faith in Colorado whatsoever.
They send youngster Alex White to the hill when he's barely old enough to wipe his own nose. The 22-year old is 2-5 this year with a 6+ ERA overall and a 7.52 ERA on the road. In his last outing, White didn't even make it to the 5th inning, allowing five hits and five earned runs in a 7-6 loss to the Phillies.
Combine the fact that Texas is throwing one of their better arms with the fact the Rockies are basically throwing in the towel before the game even starts (with White) and the Texas heat... you've got a recipe for a Texas blowout.
Take the Rangers on the run line as your free play of the day.
5♦ TEXAS -1.5