SPORTS WAGERS
Germany +1.04 over England
England has a slight edge in head to head World Cup play with 12 wins to Germany's 10 and the other 5 matches all ended in stalemate. When the draw for World Cup groupings was completed it was thought that England would have no problem marching through USA, Slovenia and Algeria. It was, however, nothing close to the "walk in the park" that everyone expected. They were off to a great start against Team USA when captain Steven Gerrard scored in the 4th minute of the match but all momentum was lost when Robert Green squandered away an English victory by fumbling the ball into his own net. Since that goal the English have been snake bitten. They settled for a draw against Algeria in one of the most dreadful matches of the tournament and then did just enough to defeat Slovenia by a score of 1-0. England really hasn't found their stride yet and at times have looked uninspired and lazy. Germany had to deal with a much tougher group. They completely demoralized the Aussies with a dominating 4-0 victory in its opener. Their loss to Serbia was nothing more than an offshoot of horrible officiating. The referee in that match was handing out more cards than a blackjack dealer at Caesars Palace. The Germans had to play with just 10 men from the 37th minute on and without their primary striker Miroslav Klose. Down a man, Germany dominated the 2nd Half and would have tied the match if Lukas Podolski could have only converted his penalty kick. The Germans rebounded with a very clinical 1-0 victory over Ghana. Mesut Ozil was instrumental for Germany, scoring the match-winning goal on a marvelous kick. The Germans have played better football than the British to this point and pulling the trigger on them in this match would be much easier if not for some key injuries. Cacau has already been ruled for the match and both Schweinsteiger and Boateng are expected to play through their ailments. The latter two took part in Saturday's training sessions, but if Schweinsteiger is not near 100% it would be a huge blow to the German side. He adds experience and leadership, which is always crucial for a team brimming with young talent. It was very evident that the German attack missed Miroslav Klose in their last match and his return will be of great importance.
The English might build on their 1-0 victory over Slovenia and come out with their best effort of the tournament. However, this is not a German side that will ever lay down and die. This match figures to be a very tight and physical contest and that might favor the conditioning and youthful legs of the German side. It's very possible that these teams could play to a draw after both regulation and extra time. If that was to happen Germany would certainly have the upper hand, due to the penalty kick fragility in the collective English psyche. England was eliminated by Germany on penalties in the 1990 World Cup in Italy and the 1996 Euro Cup in England. Their two most recent eliminations from international competitions came via penalty kick losses to Portugal in both Euro 2004 and the 2006 World Cup in Germany. England is a public team, gambling wise, that take a tremendous amount of action in their own country and from their fans around the world. For example, if England was to win the World Cup one British bookmaking company would have to pay out over $75 million. This will be a grueling match between two of the superpowers of European football. Germany offers all of the VALUE taking plus money in a contest that will be decided by the narrowest of margins. Play: Germany +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -126
The White Sox have rattled off 11 straight, and you have to like their chances of making it 12 in a row here when you consider how good Danks has been lately. The southpaw is 3-0 with an ERA of just 2.05 over his last 3 starts. Plus, he has had the Cubs' number. Danks is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.90 in 3 career starts against the Cubs. It is also worth noting that the White Sox are 6-0 in Danks' last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Dempster has pitched good, but not good enough on a team lacking offensive fire power. The Cubs have lost 6 of his 8 road starts, and he hasn't had much luck against the Sox. The Cubs are 0-4 in Dempster's last 4 starts vs. the White Sox, 7-20 in his last 27 road starts and 0-9 in his last 9 starts during game 3 of a series. The White Sox have now won 7 of the last 8 meetings, and I look for their winning ways to continue with the edge on the hill tonight.
JEFF BENTON
The Dodgers dusted the Yankees on Saturday, so I’ve now nailed 9 of 12 freebies, and in addition to that, I’m on a 95-62-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Sunday, we’ll go back to the Dodgers-Yankees series and play the series finale UNDER the total.
For starters, first pitch in this one is 5:05 p.m. local time, meaning the notorious late-afternoon/early-evening Dodger Stadium shadows will come into play for about three or four innings, making life difficult for the hitters. And those hitters will have their hands full as it is, with southpaws Andy Pettitte (9-2, 2.48 ERA) and Clayton Kershaw (7-4, 3.24 ERA) squaring off.
Pettitte is in the midst of the best season of his tremendous career, allowing two earned runs or fewer in 12 of 14 starts (including the last six in a row). And Pettitte has been a workhorse, too, going at least seven innings in six straight starts and at least six innings in all but one outing. And check out Pettitte’s road starts this year:
6 innings, 1 run allowed
8 innings, 1 run allowed
8 innings, 2 runs allowed
7 2/3 innings, 2 runs allowed
7 innings, 2 runs allowed
Overall, he’s 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA in five road games, and four of the five have stayed below the total.
As for Kershaw, he’s coming off one of his worst outings of the season (five runs allowed in six innings of a 6-3 loss at the Angels). But prior to that, he had given up a total of 11 earned runs over an eight-start stretch that covered 54 innings (1.83 ERA). In his last four home outings, he’s given up seven runs in 29 innings (2.17 ERA), with 34 strikeouts and one home run allowed in those 29 innings.
Neither offense is doing much against left-handed pitching (L.A. hits .237 at home against southpaws and was completely dominated by CC Sabathia on Friday; New York is batting .224 versus lefties over the past 10 games and only .258 on the road against lefties).
The under has cashed in six of the Yanks’ last eight against left-handed starters overall, five of seven on the road against lefties and 10 of 11 on the road against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, L.A. has stayed low in 17 of Kershaw’s last 24 starts overall.
5♦ Dodgers-Yankees UNDER
JOEL TYSON
Nailed the UNDER last night in the Padres-Marlins for free, now it is time to nail another comp play for Sunday, and I will go with the Yankees over the Dodgers.
So LA lit up AJ Burnett yesterday, that is no great shakes, as Burnett has been awful over his last 5 starts. That is not the case with tonight's starter, as Andy Pettitte has gone a workmanlike 9-2 this year with an ERA of just 2.48.
Pettitte is also undefeated away from home at 3-0, and his road ERA is under 2, and 1.96.
Gonna be tough for the Dodgers who have dropped 7 of their last 9 to keep their offense going against the veteran southpaw.
As for the Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw was just ripped by the Halos, surrendering 5 runs in his 7 innings of work.
I am sticking with the Yankees to make it 6 wins in their last 8 games with the "W" tonight.
3♦ NY YANKEES
BRETT ATKINS
Scored the free winner on Saturday as the Braves took care of the Tigers in Atlanta. Tonight, I'm delivering another comp winner as I play the Dodgers at home against the Yankees.
Looking for some offense out of the Dodgers as they face lefty Andy Pettitte. The right-handed bats of the Dodgers should step up tonight and get some hits.
Look for guys like Manny Ramirez, Russell Martin and even Casey Blake to deliver some offense tonight and beat Pettitte.
On the hill for Los Angeles is young lefty Clayton Kershaw, who has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. The Dodgers are 7-2 in those nine games and they are also 4-0 at home with him on the bump, 7-1 on Sunday and 9-1 against winning teams.
The Yankees have hit just .224 against lefties the last 10 games while Los Angeles is hitting .265.
Bank on the Dodgers to take the rubber-match of this series and send the Yankees packing with a loss. Play Los Angeles.
4♦ L.A. DODGERS
Bobby Maxwell
I was all over it on Saturday, delivering a FREE winner with the White Sox as they took out the Cubs in that city rivalry. Improved my comp record to 114-97-3 and it'll get even better today as I go with the Giants at home to down the Red Sox.
This one has all the making of a great pitching matchup as these two teams play the rubber-match of their three-game set. It’s the Red Sox lefty Jon Lester (8-3, 3.03 ERA) going up against the Giants’ Tim Lincecum (8-2, 2.86 ERA) in San Francisco and I’m going with the Giants today.
Boston lost a big piece of their heart and soul on Saturday when Dustin Pedroia went down with a broken foot. That injury is going to linger for a while with these guys as they have to get somebody to step up and deliver with the bat.
Lincecum has been outstanding lately, winning each of his last three outings with a 1.64 ERA. He baffled the Astros in Houston on Tuesday, allowing one unearned run in eight innings of a 3-1 victory. His last interleague start was June 16 when he held the Orioles to two runs in six innings, striking out 10 en route to a 6-3 victory.
Lester has a 4.26 ERA in his last three games and he’s 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA on the road. He was good against the Rockies in Colorado on Tuesday, allowing one run in six innings, but the offense didn’t deliver and the Sox lost 2-1. His previous roadie was June 10 when the Indians got him for six runs in six innings of an 8-7 loss.
San Francisco is 9-2 in interleague home games, 4-0 on Sundays, 50-22 as a home favorite, 25-9 when Lincecum is the home favorite, 13-5 when he starts at home and 7-3 when he’s on the hill at home against a winning team. Boston is just 2-5 on the road, 14-27 on the road against winning teams and 1-4 when Lester is a road ‘dog.
I’ll pay the slight price to side with Lincecum and the Giants at home in this one. Play San Francisco.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Derek Mancini
Nice hit with the Angels over the Rockies 4-2 Saturday! I'm taking another home chalk Sunday, and like the Halos yesterday, this line stands out for being a little too fishy for my liking.
Think about it... Why would oddsmakers make it so cheap to take a pitcher as hot as Jason Vargas (6-2, 2.66 ERA) has been? He's 2-0 with a 1.31 ERA in his L3 starts, and being opposed by a pitcher who's ERA hovers at almost 6 runs (5.76 to be exact)? It just doesn't add up, that is, until you dig a little deeper.
One stat of note is Vargas' ERA on the road, which rises a full run from 2.30 at Safeco to 3.31 anywhere else. And on the opposite end, while he's had his ups and downs, Chris Narveson (6-4, 5.76 ERA) has been effective in his L2 home starts (5 runs allowed in 12 innings).
But the real difference this afternoon comes at the plate. Its no secret that most of Narveson's issues come in the 1st inning. Luckily, he's be facing an offense as anemic as they come, as Seattle averages 3.5 runs per game vs lefties. Unlike the Mariners, the Brewers have hit lefties well, averaging 5.2 runs per game against them. Throw in the fact the Mariners bullpen will be short-handed today, and I'm expecting the Brew Crew to get back on track this afternoon. Milwaukee (Narveson) over Seattle (Vargas) Sunday.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Karl Garrett
G-Man gave it a go with the Cubs as the comp play on Saturday to no avail, and I am not about to pick the spot where the White Sox actually lose another game this season.
With 11 wins in a row on their side, and a 19-7 mark their last 26, the Pale Hose are the team to watch in the AL Central, and the G-Man will ride their band wagon this Sunday to notch another win.
John Danks has won his last 3 starts, and he has also dominated the Cubs in interleague ball going 2-0 his last 3 starts against them, with just 2 runs allowed in 20 innings of work.
The Cubs have now dropped 6 of their last 8, and are just 14-24 on the road this year. They are also 1-7 the last 8 meetings on the south side of Chicago - which is the baddest part of town, by the way! - and are just 3-8 overall the last 11 meetings against the White Sox.
Too many positive numbers on the White Sox side in this one to ignore.
Go with the Pale Hose.
3♦ WHITE SOX
Jimmy Moore
San Diego @ Florida
Pick: Florida
Take the Marlins at home to get the win against the visitors from the west coast. It will be tough for the Padres to play a game that starts 10:00 AM west coast time.
Info Plays
3* on St. Louis Cardinals -158
Reasons the Cards win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (KANSAS CITY) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL. This is a 46-9 ML System hitting 83.6% since 1997.
2.) Jamie Garcia is 7-3 with a 1.79 ERA this season. The lefty has been the Cardinals best starter. Both starters are south paws, and the Cards are scoring 4.7 RPG against lefty starters this season while the Royals are scoring 4.0 RPG against left-handed starters. The Cards are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings with K.C. and 19-7 in their last 26 road meetings in this series. Bet St. Louis on the road.
Stephen Nover
I am now on a 33-14-1 run with my last 48 free selections after cashing on Saturday with the Rangers on the run line.
I also scored a solid 40 dime winner on the White Sox against the Cubs.
I'm going back to the run line for my Sunday free play, but this time taking +1 1/2 on the run line with the Arizona Diamondbacks against Tampa Bay.
The Rays aren't scoring enough to get away with laying 1 1/2 runs and the pitching matchup isn't strong in their favor.
The Rays would be 2-13 if you attached a -1 1/2 run line to their past 15 games. And two of those wins were by two runs.
Tampa Bay is 2-4 in its last six games. The Rays have scored 16 runs in their last six games, an average of 2.6 runs per game during this span. They are 6-for-47 with runners in scoring position during their last five games.
Carl Crawford has missed the past two games with a sore shoulder.
The pitching matchup is Rodrigo Lopez versus Wade Davis. Lopez has a 4.59 ERA. He's a veteran pitcher, who held the Yankees to three runs in eight innings during his last start this past Monday.
Davis is a rookie who has hit the wall. He's dropped all four of his starts this month and is having trouble finding the strike zone. Davis threw just 58 strikes out of 103 pitches in his last start, giving up five hits and walking four in 4 1/3 innings at home against the Padres this past Tuesday. He has failed to go six innings during six of his last nine starts. His 4.90 ERA is worse than Lopez's.
2♦ ARIZONA -1.5
Chuck O'Brien
Sunday’s complimentary selection in interleague baseball comes from the South Side of Chicago, as I’ll take the host White Sox over the Cubs.
Start with the obvious, which is that the White Sox are riding a season-best 11-game winning streak during which they’ve more than doubled the scoring output of their opponents (51-24), batted .282 as a team and posted a ridiculous 2.05 team ERA. Conversely, the Cubs are 2-6 in their last eight games and 8-16 over the past month. And that includes four losses in five games against their rivals to the south.
Lefty John Danks gets the for the home team here, and all he’s done in eight starts at U.S. Cellular Field this year is give up only 15 earned runs in 56 innings (2.41 ERA). Over his last three outings, Danks is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA, and after getting horrendous run support in his first 12 starts of the season, Danks has seen his offense put up 16 runs in his last two trips to the mound. In fact, the Sox have scored five runs or more in four of Danks’ last six starts, and they’re 4-2 during this stretch.
As for Danks’ history against the Cubs, it can be summed up in one word: SICK! In three starts (one in 2008, two in 2009), Danks has allowed a total of two runs, 14 hits and 4 walks while striking out 19 in 20 innings (0.90 ERA).
The White Sox have been the best interleague team in 2010, going 15-2, part of an overall 17-5 run. They’re also 36-17 in their last 53 interleague home games. The Cubs? They’ve dropped 16 of 20 games in A.L. parks, not to mention 10 of 14 to the White Sox over the past three seasons.
4♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Chris Jordan
Sure hope you listened to my advice and backed the Dodgers yesterday, as they dismantled A.J. Burnett as I said they would. Vin Scully went home happy last night, as did I. Not only did the Dodgers take care of business, but I won for the sixth straight day and continued to dominate the MLB world as the No. 1 baseball handicapper in the world.
Today I am coming strong with my second-biggest MLB release of the season, a 600♦ play on the Nationals-Orioles, my second-straight 600♦ winner on the heels of a 5-0 win with the Mets over the Tigers this past Wednesday.
As for your free winner, I am going to have to side with the hottest baseball team right now, though the ship may have sailed and I could be jumping on this team a little late, I'll play the White Sox.
After falling behind the Twins in the American League Central by 9-1/2 games, the Pale Hose are just 1-1/2 back thanks to a 15-1 run, including 11 straight by Ozzie Guillen's bunch.
And what's most impressive with this team is not an overpowering display at the plate, but the balance across the board. The South Siders are averaging 4.6 runs during their streak, while their starting rotation has been tremendous, going 8-0 with a 2.16 ERA.
Today's starter, John Danks, has been super in his last six Interleague starts, going 5-1 with a 1.93 ERA and has been lights out in this Windy City series, going 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in three career outings.
The White Sox have won seven of eight at U.S. Cellular Field against the Cubbies, and should have no trouble jumping on Ryan Dempster, who hs given up 13 runs to the Sox the past two seasons - on the same exact date each time, June 27.
All signs point to another White Sox win.
4♦ CHICAGO White Sox
Scott Spreitzer
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New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: New York Yankees
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It's rare to get Andy Pettitte at such an affordable price the way he's pitching this season. His ERA is 2.48 overall, and a stunning 1.96 on the road. Do you know how hard it is to post a number below 2.00 in the DH league?! Pettitte won't have to be facing a DH tonight either, with an NL team hosting the game. Clayton Kershaw is normally a guy I look to take at home. But he's outmatched here by Pettitte according to the ERA's. Kershaw is at 3.24 for the season, and 3.49 at home even though he doesn't pitch in the DH league. We've also seen this year that the Dodgers just don't matchup well at all against the American League powers, despite yesterday's results. They were embarrassed by the LA Angels in their rivalry sixpack this year, and they got swept last weekend in Boston. Given the Dodgers troubles with the best of the AL, and Pettitte's edges on the mound, this line gives us plenty of value with the visitor. Note also that the Dodgers have to play divisional rival San Francisco Monday Night, while New York has the day off. I'll take the guys in pinstripes. The Yankees are the play.
MTi Sports
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
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The As know how to keep their foot on the throat of a struggling team. Oakland is The Athletics are a solid 22-4 as a home favorite and it is the last game of a three game series when they won the first two, including 6-0 their last six. Also, the Athletics are 12-0 after shutting out their opponent and it is the last game of a series and 11-1 when hosting a team that has lost at least their last four games. The Pirates are a defeatist 0-10 as a 140+ dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games and Pittsburgh is 1-12 in Ohlendorfs last 13 road starts. Take the As.