Tom Freese
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Cubs at White Sox
Prediction: Under
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Cubs starter Ryan Dempster has allowed 3 or less runs in his last 4 starts. The Cubs are 40-17-3 UNDER their last 60 road games when the Total is 7.0 to 8.5. The Cubs are 34-15-8 UNDER their last 57 road games. Dempster is 12-4-4 UNDER his last 20 starts on grass. The Cubs are 4-1-1 UNDER with Dempster on Sunday. White Sox starter John Danks has allowed just 5 runs total in his last 3 starts. The White Sox are 18-7-2 UNDER their last 27 Interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Pale Hose 5-1 UNDER their last 6 meetings with the Cubs.
Hollywood Sports
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Red Sox at Giants
Prediction: Under
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This should be a great pitching duel between Jon Lester and Tim Lincecum. Lester sports an 8-3 record with a 3.03 ERA and a low 1.15 WHIP. While the Red Sox are an underdog in this game, Lester thrives in these situations -- and with him on the mound, the Under is 17-4-1 in Boston's last 21 games as a dog. Lincecum enjoys an 8-2 record with a 2.86 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Lincecum is particularly tough during day games where he has a 2.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and a .216 opponent's batting average as compared to his 3.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .233 opponent's batting average when pitching at night.
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Both of these starting pitchers share a deeper sabermetric statistic that we consider important. Isolated Power (ISO) is a sabermetric determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Lester and Lincecum have low ISO's of .098 and .083 respectively which indicates they both have been very stingy regarding giving up extra-base hits. Why are statistics like ISO helpful for us? The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it helps expose a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we can get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which helps produce a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future.
Frank Jordan
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Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Detroit Tigers
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Justin Verlander had his worst start of the year giving up 5 runs in 2 innings and it rained to he was mercifully taken out as the Mets won 14-6. Atlanta has their young stud on the mound Tommy Hanson who is 7-4 this year but has an era over 4. Hanson is also coming off a bad start not last 4 innings against the White Sox giving up 9 runs. Look for both pitchers to come out dealing with Verlander being just a bit better and winning a close battle.
Steve Merril
Tigers vs. Braves
Play: Under 8
A pair of aces take the mound in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon as the Braves host the Tigers. Atlanta’s Tommy Hanson is coming off the worst start of his career giving up nine runs in just 3.7 innings of work. At home, Hanson is 3-2 with a 4.46 ERA this season. He'll be facing a Tigers team that has scored only 19 runs in their last six games. Not a single Detroit hitter has faced the righty which gives him a slight advantage here. Detroit will most likely be without Magglio Ordonez for this one which certainly makes the Tigers’ lineup less effective. Detroit’s Justin Verlander is also coming off a bad outing where he gave up five runs and five hits in two innings to the Mets. He's 4-3 with a 5.03 ERA on the road this season, and he'll be facing the Braves for just the second time in his career. He struck out 11 Atlanta hitters in seven innings in a 2-1 win back in 2007. Melky Cabrera (2-11), Brian McCann (0-3), and Eric Hinske (0-2) all struggle against the righty. Jason Heyward is most likely out of this game as he deals with an ailing thumb. Atlanta has gone Under in four straight games scoring only nine runs over that span, and Detroit has gone Under in four of their last six games. With both offenses struggling and possibly missing two solid hitters, we’ll recommend a play on the Under between the Tigers and Braves this afternoon.
Cajun Sports
Astros vs. Rangers
Play: Under 9
The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers face off on Sunday night with the first pitch set for 8:05PM Eastern Time. Roy Oswalt will take the bump for the visitor and the Tommy Hunter will go for the Rangers. This game has strong under tendencies with ten of fifteen going under the last three seasons and five of the last seven at Texas falling on the low side. The Under is 12-5 in the Astros last 17 interleague road games, the Under is 10-0-1 in Oswalts last 11 starts following a team loss in their previous game, the Under is 11-1 in Oswalts last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and the Under is 34-14-5 in Oswalts last 53 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Under is 14-4 in the Rangers last 18 interleague home games, the Under is 22-10 in Rangers last 32 interleague games as a favorite and the Under is 12-4 in Rangers last 16 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Under is 7-0 in Oswalts last 7 starts vs. Rangers. With solid technical support for the under we will play this contest to fall well below the posted total of 9 runs.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Houston - Texas UNDER 9
Craig Trapp
St Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
The 2nd best ERA pitcher in the league is STL starter Garcia. He looks to continue his super hot start as he tries to improve his 7-3 record. Better news for us STL bettor is they face starter Chen who has been horrible against STL in his carreer (0-3, 5.87 ERA). Lineup favors STL although its not quite the discrepancy you would think. This one comes down to pitching and its a huge advantage as Garcia continues his super hot start.
Rob Vinciletti
Colorado Rockies vs. LAA Angels
Play: LAA Angels
The Angles qualify in a decent 10-3 system that plays on certain home favorites off a home favored win by 2 or more runs, provided they were a home favorite of -140 or higher and 4 or less runs and 4 or less hits. If the opponent is off a road dog loss and scored 2 or less runs the system cashes 10 of 13 times. The Angles are one of the best Day teams in the majors. They have a long term 85.36 day time record and average over 5 runs per game when the sun is up. They also have cashed 19 of 26 times when the total is 8 to 8.5. The Rockies are just 3-7 as a road dog in this range and hit for a lower average in day games than they do at night. Look for the Angels to win this one.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
England @ Germany
PICK: Germany
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There are many options when wagering on soccer; this play is based off The Greek Sports Book on Germany at a "pk" +106:
First off congratulations to everyone who got down on yesterday's "free play winner" on the OVER 2 goals scored between Uruguay and Korea Republic at +105; we'll look to keep things rolling here.
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England and Germany have a storied history against each other in World Cup play; England scored a controversial goal in the 1966 World Cup final and won 4-2 in extra time; the Germans came from 2-0 down to win at the 1970 tournament.
Germany won penalty-kick shootouts at the 1990 event and the 1996 European Championship and went on to win the titles in both of those tournaments.
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Many "experts" around the World believe this game will go to penalty kicks, but I'm expecting the Germans to end this one in regulation.
England's road to the knock-out round hasn't been a thing of beauty, however Germany coach Joachim Loew won't be underestimating the English; "England is always England. It's a team with a lot of fighting spirit and very strong mentally, with incredible experience," Loew said. "The axis with John Terry, Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard and Wayne Rooney has the highest quality you can find in European football."
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On the other side of the pitch: Germany features four players from the team that thrashed England in the final of the European Under-21 Championships in Sweden last summer.
"We might have a young team but we will be able to hold our own," Loew said.
Bottom line: Let's be clear; both of these teams have been inconsistent at best to this point.
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Germany however is going to benefit greatly from the return of Miroslav Klose as the striker missed the Ghana match because of suspension.
Both teams are dealing with injuries right now, including England's star Wayne Rooney who has been struggling for form and fitness at this World Cup.
England has looked shaky at best leading up to this point; Germany's path to the knockout stage has not been nearly as fraught with difficulties as the English have experienced.
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You may want to consider a second look at Germany in this situation as it's youth will look to take advantage of an over-rated English side.
MARC LAWRENCE
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San Diego Padres @ Florida Marlins
PICK: San Diego Padres
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The Padres conclude their portion of Interleague play this season when they send local favorite Mat Latos to the mound in his hometown against the Marlins Sunday afternoon at Sun Life Stadium. Since switching from the left side of the rubber to the right side (to allow his slider better movement), Latos has found his groove, going 7-2 with a 1.81 ERA in nine team starts, including 12 walks and 62 strikeouts. We're not about to mess with the best-kept secret in MLB today, especially with Latos toiling as an underdog in front of family and friends and with the Padres currently 13-4 in their last 17 games against the N.L Central. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Diego.
Jim Feist
Phillies vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 9½
A pair of powerful home run hitting offenses meet here in a home run park. That's bad news for the pitchers on the hill, both of whom are struggling. Toronto lefty Brett Cecil has a 6.11 ERA his last three starts, while 47-year old soft serve Jamie Moyer of the Phillies has a 6.35 ERA his last three starts. After a month where the bats were silent, the Phillies have found an offensive groove the last week. Play the Blue Jays/Phillies Over the total.
EZWINNERS
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Texas Rangers -151
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The Rangers have now won ten out of the last twelve meetings between these two teams with their win (and my free winner) yesterday over the Astros. The Astros ace Roy Oswalt takes the mound for Houston in this game, but Oswalt has not had much run support this season and his career numbers against the Rangers are nothing special. In eleven career starts against Texas, Oswalt is only 4-5 with an ERA of 3.99. The Rangers send Tommy Hunter to the mound for this game and Hunter has pitched very well for Texas. Hunter is 3-0 in four starts with an ERA of just 2.30. I expect him to have a solid effort here against the Astros as Roy O once again becomes a victim of a lack of run support. Play on Texas.
Sac Lawson
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BAL / WAS Under 9.5
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Jeremy Guthrie takes the mound for the O's on Sunday, and although he's struggled lately, he definitely doesn't mind facing the cross-town rival Nationals. Guthrie has given up just 7 runs in 5 career starts against the Nats. He's in need of a strong bounce back game this afternoon, and historically the Nationals have easily provided that kinda performance for Guthrie. Obviously the O's bullpen is always a concern, but I've actually been impressed with their performance over the last couple days, and I wouldn't be surprised if Guthrie handed them the ball in the 6th or 7th and they were able to lock it down.
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On the other side. Atilano is really starting to find himself in the majors. His last start was absolutely fantastic. He was getting plenty of ground balls, pitching to contact with efficiency, and limiting the walks as well. This is a guy with a fantastic sinker, he just has to trust himself enough to throw it over the plate. He's definitely getting there, and in my estimation, he's only going to improve off that last fine performance. On top of that, Clippard didn't throw yesterday, so we should have him for AT LEAST one inning in the 7th or 8th. He's the back bone of that Nationals pen, and on any day when he's out there, I expect the pen to be stout in the late innings.
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This one is simple for me. Guthrie has great history against Washington, Atilano is on the rise, and both bullpens have shown some promise over the last week or so. 1 unit on the UNDER.
FLA (-110) vs SDP
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Going with a rather large free play here. 1.5 units today on the Marlins. First thing's first. Latos is a guy that's been very very good lately, I can't deny that. He's been sound on the road all year long, and he flat out puts his team in a position to win games. This youngster has grown so much from last season it's not even funny. Last year he tried to strikeout everyone he faced, and has a result gave up far too many homeruns on high fastballs. This year, he's keeping the ball low in the zone, he's improved his changeup and he's keeping balls in the park, while at the same time simply pitching to contact. Definitely a good young pitcher, and a guy that often times gets overlooked in the discussion of up in coming pitchers simply because he plays for the Padres.
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BUT, if there is one thing that is apparent with Latos, it's that he's not comfortable against Florida. Earlier this year he gave up 7 earned in just 2 innings against Florida, and in his only other career start he gave up 5 runs in 3 innings. He simply does not match up well with the power hitting righties (even though he's a righty himself), and if there is one thing every single coach I've talked to has told me, it's that Latos is a(n) "idiot, nut case, dim wit, mentally challenged, etc." The guy thinks too much, basically. And a team like Florida, that has had some success against him, that'll wear on this kid. He's far from mature, and far from "smart." He's the kinda guy that knows how poorly his pitched against Florida in his career, and whatever confidence he comes into this game with, probably won't exist in that brain of his. Don't get me wrong, the kid has talent, but I've watched this kid since he was 18 years old, and these are the spots he struggles in. He'll overthink out there and get himself into trouble early. At least that's what I'm counting on.
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On the other side, Sanchez was probably the best pitcher in the majors during the month of May. He only gave up 8 runs in 6 starts. Absolutely amazing. And he has definitely fallen back to reality a bit in June. But the guy is still sharp, and he's cut down on his walks a great deal. We don't need a miracle from Sanchez today, we just need to give his bullpen a lead. Florida's pen is very strong in the late innings, it's the middle relief we need to avoid.
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We have some wind blowing out to left today, and tons of power righties at the plate for Florida. Latos has had trouble with home runs in his career, don't be surprised if those issues pop up again. I understand that San Diego is the better bullpen, and a team that flat out wins, but I believe they'll be playing from behind right from the start this afternoon. Take Florida for 1.5 units!
Brad Diamond Sports
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Play St.Louis over KC
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Youngster Garcia of St. Louis is 7-3 with a 1.79 ERA this season. For the most part the Cardinals have helped out with some key run production at the opportune time. Further, the Cardinals field at 17-5 in Kansas City and 5-1 versus left-handed hurlers (Chen) on the road. Good Luck.
Larry Ness
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Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
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The Red Sox lost more than a game on Friday night, as Dustin Pedroia was placed on the DL after breaking his left foot by fouling a ball off it (Pedroia was batting .491 with four HRs and 13 RBI over his last 14 games). Then last night, Clay Buchholz hyperextended his left knee while running the bases in the second inning. Boston went on to win 4-2 but now must continue without Pedroia and not knowing the status of Buchholz (Becket is already on the DL). Playing in the brutal AL East, the Red Sox can't afford many more mishaps. Jon Lester gets the start on Sunday and he's has been some pitcher for the Red Sox over the last two-plus seasons. He went 16-6 (3.21 ERA) in 2008 and followed by going 15-8 (3.41 ERA) last season (Boston was a combined 44-21 in his starts those two seasons). He opened the 2010 season struggling (0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in three starts / teams was 0-3) but it's been "lights out," since. Lester was 8-0 with a 2.01 ERA over his previous 11 starts (team was 9-2) before losing a 2-1 decision last Tuesday at Coors Field (6 IP / 6 hits / 1 ER / 6 Ks). The Red Sox are 12-5 during interleague play in 2010 and Lester is 6-2 with a 2.86 ERA in 12 career IL starts. However, he's facing Tim Lincecum in this game, in the Giants' home park. The Giants are 25-13 at home, outscoring opponents on average, 4.39-to-2.87 RPG. Lincecum, who has won two straight Cy Young awards in the NL, is back in a groove. He opened the 2010 season season 4-0 with a 1.86 ERA (64-10 KW ratio) in his first seven starts (team was 6-1 but had two blown saves). He won his eighth start 2-1 but walked five batters, beginning a stretch of FOUR straight starts in which he would do so. The last three starts of that stretch also saw him allow 14 ERs over 15.1 innings (team was 0-3!). However, as I said just before, Lincecum is back pitching like Lincecum again. He's 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA over his last four outings (team is 4-0), posting a 30-9 KW ratio. It's never easy going against Lester but he is dealing with some arm soreness. Take the Giants behind Lincecum.
John Ryan
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
3* graded play on Texas as they take on Houston set to start at 8:05 EST. Interested that Oswalt may be a Ranger quite soon, but nonetheless the Rangers continue to be the top rated team in all of baseball by our statistical model. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 96-30 for 76.2% winners since 2004. Play on all favorites with a money line of -150 or more with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season facing a NL opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season. one of the dominat reasons Texas is our top team is that they defeat the weaker teams. Note that Texas is a solid 36-13 (+21.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Take the Rangers.