Black Widow
1* on Toronto Blue Jays +115
Toronto has the edge on the mound with Brett Cecil, who is 7-4 with a 4.06 ERA this season. Jamie Moyer has posted a 6.35 ERA over his last 3 starts and the lefty will get rocked this afternoon against a Toronto line-up that has hit 114 home runs in 75 games. That's not good news for Moyer, who has already served up 14 home runs this year. Cecil is 7-1 (+7.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. The Phillies are just 10-15 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in day games this season. The Phillies are 1-7 in Moyer's last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Toronto hit 3 home runs en route to victory Saturday, and more are coming today.Take the Blue Jays on the Money Line.
Dave Price
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -111
The Red Sox will really miss the red hot bat of Pedroia when they face the reigning 2-time NL Cy Young Award winner. Lincecum is 8-2 this season with an ERA of 2.86. He's 2-0 in interleague play with an ERA of 2.57, and he's 3-0 in his last 3 starts with an ERA of 1.64. Lester has been good, but not quite as good as Lincecum. And he has been at his worst during the day, where he is carrying a 6.00 ERA. Compare that to Lincecum's 2.50 ERA in day starts. It is also worth noting that the Red Sox are 1-5 in Lester's last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record and the Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Giants.
Jack Jones
Chicago White Sox -136
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Hard not to like the White Sox Sunday as they aim for their 12th straight win. Chicago has feasted on the National League this season, going 15-2 in interleague play. John Danks has been rock-solid with a 7-5 record and a 3.23 ERA with a 1.174 WHIP. Danks is also 4-3 with a 2.41 ERA at home this season, and 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA over his last 3 starts. In 3 starts vs. the Cubs, Danks is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.900 WHIP. He has allowed just 2 earned runs and 18 base runners in 20 innings. Ryan Dempster is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.836 WHIP in 5 career starts vs. the White Sox.
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The White Sox have won 7 of 8 meetings with the Cubs this season. The Cubs are 14-24 on the road this season, hitting .242 and scoring 3.7 RPG. Dempster is 1-7 in day games this season. The White Sox are 6-0 in Danks' last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Cubs are 1-9 in Dempster's last 10 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Chicago is 0-9 in Dempster's last 9 starts during game 3 of a series. Roll with the White Sox to win their 12th straight Sunday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Astros/Rangers OVER 9
The Astros have combined with their opponents to tally 9 or more runs in each of their last 4 games. Texas has combined with its opponents to tally 9 or more runs in 9 of its last 10 games. I know we have a pair of solid starters on the hill tonight, but I have to go with the Over when you consider how well these teams have been swinging the sticks. In addition, plays Over on home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (TEXAS) - after 3 straight games where they had 12 or more hits, after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs, are 33-10 the last 5 seasons, including 15-4 the last 3 seasons. We are seeing an average 11.2 runs scored in these games. In know the Under has been a hot play when Oswalt faces the Rangers, but Texas is crushing the baseball this season, hitting .306 and scoring 6.1 runs per game at home. Bet the Over.
SPORTS WAGERS
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Mexico +½ and +1 +1.02 over Argentina
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Mexico +5.24 over Argentina PINNACLE
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In sports there are always teams that raise their level of play against certain rivals. Opponents are circled on the calendar and in some cases a squad can actually play out of their own skin in the hopes of upsetting a team they dream of beating. This match IS the World Cup for Mexico. They could have lost every other match in the tournament, but a victory vs. Argentina would make the whole thing worthwhile. Mexico is no slouch, as they have played extremely well in this World Cup so far. Their 1-1 draw vs. South Africa is more than forgivable, as playing the host country in the opening game is a task that no team ever wants to face. Its 2-0 victory over France may lose some of its luster with what became of the French but that was literally a perfect effort from Mexico. Everyone thought that Mexico and Uruguay would kick the ball around to a draw but the teams were attacking each other relentlessly early on. Uruguay is a very talented South American squad and the 1-0 loss to them was a good prep for this match against a team that plays a similar style from the same continent. Argentina is a very talented team lead by Lionel Messi, who despite not having scored a goal is the early favorite for Man of the Tournament honors. They stepped all over their group but anything less would have been considered a disaster. They beat a Nigerian side, who nearly failed to pick up a point in this World Cup, by a slim margin of 1-0. They followed that up with a 4-1 thrashing of South Korea, however two of those goals came very late in the contest when the Koreans were on the all out attack. Their final group stage match was a 2-0 victory over Greece, but both of those goals also came very late. Martin Demichelis scored in the 77th minute and then the add-on goal came in the 89th when the Greeks were no longer focused on defending. It should be alarming to Argentinean supporters that South Korea was utterly dominated by Uruguay yesterday. It did take a late goal for them to squeak out a 2-1 victory, but anyone who watched that game could tell you that those teams didn't belong on the same field together. Up 1-0 early the Uruguayans went into defend mode and if they continued to press the score line would have been much different. This is not to suggest that Argentina is by any means counterfeit, rather that Mexico is certainly capable of elevating their game to best them in this spot. History certainly favors Argentina with their 11 wins to Mexico's 4 in head-to-head matchups. However, the teams have also played to 10 draws so for wagering purposes these numbers are actually favorable to Mexico. In the most recent World Cup, Germany 2006, it took an extra time goal by Maxi Rodriguez for Argentina to knock Mexico out of the World Cup in the Round of 16. Mexico struck in just the 6th minute of that match and actually outshot Argentina 12-11. They have shown they play fearless against Argentina and their key today will be to test goalkeeper Sergio Romero early and often. Mexico will look for their usual fast start and if history repeats itself they will be all the more hungry to hold on to the lead. This match will be much closer than many people think and all of the value is on the Mexican side. Taking them in an Asian Handicap splits our wager between two spreads of +½ and +1. If Mexico wins or they play to a draw both wagers win and an Argentina win in regulation by one goal surrenders half our wager. It also makes sense to put a small wager on Mexico to win the game in regulation at odds of more than 5-1. Value, Value, Value... Viva Mexico. Play: Mexico +½ and +1 +1.02 (Risking 1.5 units). Play Mexico +5.24 (Risking 0.5 units).
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San Diego +1.02 over FLORIDA
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Matt Latos is wickedly good and any take-back on him against the struggling Marlins is a gift. In fact, since the start of May, Latos is 7-2 with a 1.92 ERA in 10 starts. He has allowed more than two runs in a game just once in that stretch. He has great control and command, as his 0.95 WHIP and 110 BPV will attest to. Latos has struck out 79 while walking just 22 over 86 innings and his BAA is a mere .191. In addition, the Marlins have scored just one run over the past 18 frames against the Padres. They have just one win in four games since firing its manager and that win came against the O’s. Annibal Sanchez’s 3.30 ERA is considerably lower than his 4.43 xERA. His BAA of .266 is 75 points higher than Latos’. Sanchez is trending downward and in fact, his numbers have been getting progressively worse with each passing start. In four June starts, his BAA is .298 with an ERA of 4.32 and in no way should he and the free-falling Fish be favored in this spot. Play: San Diego +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
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Toronto +1.12 over PHILADELPHIA
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When you lay juice with Jamie Moyer you’re taking a huge risk because this guy can get lit up for a lot of runs very quickly. Despite a misleading 8-6 record, Moyer has an ERA of 4.43 and failed to get out of the second inning in a recent game against the Red Sox in which he allowed nine earned runs in one inning. He’s had back-to-back great starts and the chances of him having three solid starts in a row are slim at best. Current Blue Jay hitters are batting a combined .345 against Moyer in 145 career AB’s. It’s also worth noting that the Phillies are 1-7 against southpaws at home and will face a good one here in Brett Cecil. The Phillies have never seen Cecil and that has to work to his advantage. Cecil has good numbers right across the board that includes a .221 BAA, a 1.09 WHIP, 55 K’s and just 19 walks in 75 IP. Cecil has worked six or more innings in nine of 12 starts and he and the Jays offer up all the value in this game. Play: Toronto +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
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Washington +1.14 over BALTIMORE
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First, taking back a price against the O’s is never a bad idea. Secondly, Jeremy Guthrie is another one of these pitchers with decent surface stats but a close look at base skills tells a different story. Guthrie’s ERA has been rising now for four consecutive games. Eroding command says the damage isn't done, and spiking FB% confirms high hr/9 wasn't a fluke. Guthrie is also 0-5 with a 5.23 ERA over the past month and his last three starts have come against the Marlins, Giants and Mets, not exactly the cream of the crop. Meanwhile Luis Atilano is trending the other way. He was very shap in his last start against the Royals and has now allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts. Most importantly, he did not issue a single walk in his last outing and that has to do wonders for his confidence. Play: Washington +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
Nelly
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Seattle + over Milwaukee
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While the Brewers have been playing well in recent weeks the edge for the Mariners on the mound tonight should be significant. Jason Vargas is 6-2 with a 2.66 ERA despite pitching for a last place Seattle team and he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 13 consecutive starts. Vargas has walked just 23 batters all season long and even in his road starts his WHIP is just 1.10. Closer David Aardsma will not be available for this game but the Seattle bullpen has posted capable numbers in recent weeks and has been superior to Milwaukee's relief unit for the season. For lack of other options Chris Narveson remains in the Milwaukee rotation. He was fortunate to allow only three runs in his last start as three runs were in before he recorded an out. In hi last seven starts only once has he allowed fewer than three runs and his home ERA is 5.74 for the season. He has also struggled in day games with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP. Milwaukee is just 2-4 in his last six outings and Seattle is a much better hitting team against left-handed pitching. Seattle is quietly playing well with wins in seven of the last ten games and while the Mariners lack a strong road record, the Brewers have been one of the worst home performers in baseball. Milwaukee typically does not fare well in low scoring games and that is likely the scenario today with Vargas on the mound and Mike Estabrook behind the plate. With a fluky five-game winning streak out of the way the Brewers are likely back to being a play-against team, especially when favored.
Wunderdog
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San Diego Padres vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
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The Padres have been impressive this season thanks to great pitching. On the road this team is averaging only 3.8 runs per game, so asking them to win here against a team averaging 4.8 per game is asking a lot. Mat Latos has been very good but he's facing another pitcher who has been very good this year in Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez owns a 3.30 ERA (2.64 at home). So we have two good pitchers and two very different offenses. I like the home team with the offensive edge. Over the past couple of seasons, the Marlins are 12-3 after a game in which 3 or fewer runs were scored. They are also 25-12 the past three seasons after three straight losses. I'm on the Marlins here.
JR O'Donnell
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CHC (+120) vs CWS
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Let's break this baby down: J. Danks who has been great in Inter-league play. a smooth 5-1 the last 6 and below a 2 ERA will be tying to win 4 in row vs the Cubbies today. THIS IS A HUGE GUT play for the O'ster. The Cubbies are not scoring at all right now and the Cubbies are way to talented to be 10 games below .500. The Chi Sox have been the benefit of a bunch of breaks and today we will be one of the "the only capper" on the Cubbies to end that streak.
Dwayne Bryant
TEX (-169) vs HOU
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This was going to be a second premium play today, but I know how anal some people get about cappers releasing "high line plays." So I'm just making this a freebie, but I'm betting this the same as my paid play. I personally don't have a -130 or -150 cut-off for MLB wagers. I'm not afraid to lay some heavy juice in the right situation.
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The popular gut reaction here is to grab Roy Oswalt at this big dog price. Even if Oswalt does pitch well today, that alone will not be enough. Oswalt is 0-4 with a 4.81 ERA in his last five outings in the series. Texas is hitting .331 against Oswalt in that stretch, with a few Rangers having great success against Oswalt, including Max Ramirez (2-for-3 with a HR), Michael Young (.306 with 4 2B in 36 AB), and Ian Kinsler (6-for-13 with a 2B, 3B & HR). Texas is batting .308 and scoring 6.4 runs per game at home against righties this season.
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Tommy Hunter has pitched very well in all three of his home starts for Texas, posting a 2.14 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with a 15/3 K/BB ratio. Houston has never faced Hunter, so there's a nice edge for Texas. The 'Stros are only batting .234 and scoring 3.4 runs per game on the road against righties this season, and they've given Oswalt just 2.8 runs per game to work with.
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Then there's the Houston pen, which owns a 5.11 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and .305 BAA on the road this season. The Texas pen owns a 3.33 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and .233 BA at home this season. They've been extremely tough of late, sporting a 1.40 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and a .137 BAA in their last 10 games.
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Bottom line: I'm looking past the name "Oswalt" and going with what I see. Texas has too much "O" and they've had past success against Oswalt. Houston doesn't have nearly enough "O" and they've never faced Hunter. We also have a HUGE bullpen edge. I'll gladly take Texas/Hunter over Houston/Oswalt tonight.
DUNKEL INDEX
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox
The Cubs look to salvage a game in the series and build on their 5-0 record in their last 5 games after dropping the first 2 games of a series. The Cubs are the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+120)
Game 951-952: San Diego at Florida (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 15.095; Florida (Sanchez) 14.519
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Florida (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Under
Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Toronto (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.051; Toronto (Cecil) 15.318
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Under
Game 955-956: Cleveland at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Talbot) 13.157; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.381
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-190); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-190); Under
Game 957-958: Minnesota at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 15.879; NY Mets (Niese) 15.267
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-110); Under
Game 959-960: Detroit at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.799; Atlanta (Hanson) 15.693
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+110); Over
Game 961-962: Washington at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Atilano) 14.718; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.040
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Under
Game 963-964: Arizona at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Lopez) 14.406; Tampa Bay (Davis) 14.827
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-200); Over
Game 965-966: Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 15.725; White Sox (Danks) 15.534
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+120); Under
Game 967-968: Seattle at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 15.642; Milwaukee (Narveson) 16.798
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-120); Under
Game 969-970: St. Louis at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.106; Kansas City (Chen) 14.546
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); Under
Game 971-972: Colorado at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 15.600; LA Angels (Santana) 16.748
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-140); Over
Game 973-974: Pittsburgh at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 13.036; Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.879
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-240); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-240); Over
Game 975-976: Boston at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.997; San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.922
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Over
Game 977-978: Houston at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 15.391; Texas (Hunter) 16.529
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-160); Under
Game 979-980: NY Yankees at LA Dodgers (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.285; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.547
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-110); Over
WNBA
Seattle at Tulsa
The Storm look to take advantage of a Tulsa team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games overall. Seattle is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-8 1/2)
Game 601-602: Los Angeles at Atlanta (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 107.319; Atlanta 119.574
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 12 1/2; 162
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 10; 167
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-10); Under
Game 603-604: Phoenix at Washington (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 109.756; Washington 118.805
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 9; 176
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3; 172 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3); Over
Game 605-606: Seattle at Tulsa (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 118.071; Tulsa 107.359
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 10 1/2; 167
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 8 1/2; 165
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-8 1/2); Over
Game 607-608: Connecticut at New York (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 111.887; New York 108.296
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 3 1/2; 152
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 1; 156
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+1); Under
Game 609-610: Indiana at Chicago (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 112.805; Chicago 115.249
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 145
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 148
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1 1/2); Under
BIG AL
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Red Sox @ Giants
PICK: Over 6.5
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After a slow start (0-2 with a 8.44 ERA in his first three trips to the mound), lefthander Jon Lester has really turned things around and is now one of the best southpaws in the American League as many people predicted he would be to start the season. It hasn't hurt that the Boston bats have come around and scored at least five runs in eight of his 10 starts since the beginning of May. In fact, since his start on May 4, Lester is 7-1 and the Red Sox are 7-3 in his 10 outings. Both he and San Francisco's Tim Lincecum should make the All Star team in two weeks. The Giants' righthander almost certainly won't win his third Cy Young award, but he's still having an All Star-caliber season and like Lester, Lincecum has eight wins on the season and also owes much of his success to his team's bats showing up when he steps to the mound. The Giants have scored five or more runs in 10 of his 15 starts and 10 of those 15 games have also gone a total of eight or more runs. Lester isn't far behind as nine of 15 starts have also gone a total of eight or more. Take the 'over.