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Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday June 28, 2009

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SPORTS AVISORS

San Francisco (39-34) at Milwaukee (40-34)
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The Brewers look to make it a three-game sweep over San Francisco as they send veteran Jeff Suppan (5-5, 4.65 ERA) to the mound at Miller Park opposite Giants’ rookie Ryan Sadowski, making his first major league start.
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Milwaukee took Saturday’s game, 7-6, scoring three times in the bottom of the ninth to get the win as Giants’ reliever Brian Wilson blew his fourth save of the season. Prince Fielder hit a three-run homer in the sixth and drove in the winning run in the ninth to lead the way for the Brewers. Milwaukee has won three of five games with San Francisco this season, nine of the last 11 with the Giants and 16 of the last 19 meetings in Miller Park.

The Brewers are 17-5 at home against teams with winning records, but they are just 4-7 in their last 11 at home, 1-4 on Sundays, 3-5 against the N.L. West and 1-5 in the third game of a series. The Giants are 4-0 on Sundays, 7-2 in the third game of a series and 5-3 overall, but they are on slides of 26-56 on the road against teams with winning records and 11-28 against the N.L. Central.

Sadowski takes the place of Jonathan Sanchez, who has been moved to the bullpen after his 2-8 start to the season. Sadowski, a 26-year-old right-hander, was 5-2 with a 4.11 ERA in 13 starts with Triple-A Fresno this season.
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Suppan has struggled at home this season, going 1-4 with a 5.74 ERA. Tuesday he gave up seven runs (four earned) in five innings of a 7-3 loss to the Twins at home. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak the Brewers were on with him on the hill. He faced these Giants back on April 7 and gave up six runs on six hits in four innings of a 10-6 loss in San Francisco. Milwaukee is 9-4 in his last 13 starts, but just 2-5 in his last seven at home and 1-6 in his last seven on Sunday.

With Suppan on the hill, the Brewers have topped the total in four of his last six starts, but they’ve stayed under the total in seven of his last 10 against teams with winning records. As a team, the Brewers are on “over” runs of 9-3 overall and 6-1 in the third game of a series, but the under is 7-2 in games they’ve faced N.L. West competition. It’s been all “unders” for the Giants lately, including 5-2 overall, 4-2 on the road, 4-1 against right-handed starters and 5-2 in the third game of series. In this series, the over is 20-7-2 in the last 29 meetings, including 11-3-2 in the last 16 played at Miller Park.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE

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N.Y. Yankees (42-32) at N.Y. Mets (37-36)

The Yankees will try to make it a clean sweep at Citi Field when they send struggling Chien-Ming Wang (0-6, 11.49 ERA) to the hill against the Mets’ veteran Livan Hernandea (5-2, 4.05).

The Yankees blanked the Mets, 5-0, on Saturday, getting one-hit pitching from A.J. Burnett and two relievers. Nick Swisher and Jorge Posada delivered home runs to lead the offense for the Yankees, who have outscored the Mets 14-1 and outhit them 22-4 in the first two games of this series. The Yankees have won four of five from their crosstown rivals this season and outscored the Mets 29-1 in the last three games and 40-15 in the five games this season.
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Joe Girardi’s squad is on several positive runs, including 25-11 as a favorite, 62-30 in the third game of a series and 10-4 as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Mets are on several slides, including 1-6 in interleague games, 1-5 as an interleague ‘dog, 3-10 on Sundays, 7-19 in the third game of a series and 2-6 in interleague home games.

Wang has been disappointing this season, going 0-4 on the road with an 11.42 ERA and 0-3 in his last three outings with a 7.11 ERA. Tuesday he gave up three runs on six hits in five innings at Atlanta as the Yankees dropped a 4-0 decision. Wang has allowed three runs or more in each of his seven starts this season. Despite his troubles, the Yankees are still 53-21 when Wang starts as a favorite, 47-23 in his last 70 starts overall and 21-7 when he goes as a road favorite.

Hernandez is 2-1 at Citi Field with a 3.34 ERA and he was solid on Tuesday, giving up three runs (two earned) in seven innings to the Cardinals, but getting no support in the 3-0 loss. He’s allowed three runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts for the Mets, but on June 12 he got rocked by the Yankees, giving up six runs on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 9-8 loss. He’s struggled against the Bronx Bombers in his career, allowing 25 runs in 30 innings of work. The Mets are 0-5 in when he starts as a ‘dog and 1-4 in his last five overall.
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With Wang on the hill, the Yankees are on “over” runs of 9-3-1 overall, 5-0 in the third game of a series, 6-2 as a road favorite and 8-3 on Sundays. For the Mets, with Hernandez on the mound, the “under” is on streaks of 5-2 overall and 4-0 when he’s an underdog of up to +150.

As a team, the Yankees are on “over” streaks of 4-2 overall, 4-2 in interleague games and 4-2 against the N.L. East. The Mets are riding “over” streaks of 12-6-3 as an interleague ‘dog, 11-6-1 as a ‘dog overall, 9-5-1 as a home pup. In this rivalry, the under has been the play in five of the last six meetings on the Mets’ home field.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and OVER

 
Posted : June 28, 2009 6:55 am
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DUNKEL

Florida at Tampa Bay
The Marlins look to rebound from yesterday's 3-2 loss and build on their 4-1 record in Andrew Miller's last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in the previous game. Florida is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Florida (+145).

Game 951-952: San Francisco at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sadowski) 14.929; Milwaukee (Suppan) 16.194
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-150); Over

Game 953-954: Cincinnati at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Owings) 13.454; Cleveland (Huff) 14.904
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-140); Over

Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 16.052; Toronto (Tallet) 14.849
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+135); Over

Game 957-958: NY Yankees at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Wang) 15.172; NY Mets (Hernandez) 15.654
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); Under

Game 959-960: Boston at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Penny) 15.913; Atlanta (Hanson) 14.304
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Under

Game 961-962: Kansas City at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 14.648; Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.580
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-155); Over

Game 963-964: Florida at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Miller) 16.979; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.961
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+145); Under

Game 965-966: Washington at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 14.052; Baltimore (Hernandez) 15.686
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-135); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-135); Under

Game 967-968: Detroit at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Jackson) 14.751; Houston (Ortiz) 15.645
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+135); Over

Game 969-970: Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 16.218; White Sox (Danks) 14.616
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+100); Under

Game 971-972: Minnesota at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 16.212; St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.005
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Over

Game 973-974: Colorado at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 14.819; Oakland (Mazzaro) 15.390
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-130); Under

Game 975-976: Seattle at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Olson) 14.854; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 16.303
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-200); Over

Game 977-978: LA Angels at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Palmer) 15.112; Arizona (Scherzer) 15.424
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-130); Over

Game 979-980: San Diego at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Gaudin) 14.558; Texas (Hunter) 14.222
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-175); 11
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+165); Over

WNBA

Seattle at Los Angeles
The Sparks look to build on their 11-1 ATS record in their last 12 home games. Los Angeles is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+2 1/2).

Game 651-652: Sacramento at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 106.431; Detroit 117.809
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 11 1/2; 152 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 6; 143
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-6); Over

Game 653-654: Seattle at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 115.553; Los Angeles 115.717
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 138
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 2 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+2 1/2); Over

 
Posted : June 28, 2009 6:56 am
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Big Al McMordie
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Colorado Rockies vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Under 7.5
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At 4:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Oakland A's and Colorado Rockies 'under' the total. Last night, the Rockies blasted Oakland 11-9, but don't expect any offensive fireworks on this Sunday afternoon. The pitching match-up will be right-handed veteran Aaron Cook vs. Oakland youngster Vin Mazzaro. Cook is 7-3 in his 16 starts, and has a super 2.25 ERA over his last three starts with a 1.10 WHIP. Not to be outdone, Mazzaro has a 2.56 ERA this season with a 1.07 WHIP. This season, Oakland's offense has been dreadful, as its team batting average is a meager .235, while Colorado has hit just .246 on the road, away from the hitter-friendly Coors Field this season. The A's have gone 'under' in 107 games at home of their last 185, and I look for a low-scoring game today. Take the 'under.'

 
Posted : June 28, 2009 7:04 am
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Craig Trapp
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Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
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Betting Trends

-LA are 46-19 in their last 65 home games.

-Dodgers are 6-2 in Kurodas last 8 starts as a favorite.

-Mariners are 16-37 in their last 53 games as a road underdog.

-Mariners are 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
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Kuroda has been much better for LAD in recent games and he is the much better pitcher today. SEA goes to Olson who is starting due to injuries. Olson last start was pitiful and the scouting report is out and LAD will take advantage of him today. LAD are very good at home and even though the offense was held in check on Saturday look for them to score early and often today. The rubber match on Sunday will be a blowout daylight winner for the Dodgers. The play here is definitely the run line LAD!

 
Posted : June 28, 2009 7:05 am
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Bob Harvey
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St. Louis Cardinals -126
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The Cardinals send Joel Piniero to the mound today and if he can receive just a little run support, than this game should cash easily.

I backed Pineiro in his last start on Tuesday night and was justly rewarded when he twirled a career best, complete game two-hitter as St. Louis blanked New York 3-0. Hes 1-2 but has a 1.61 ERA over his last three starts. His WHIP over that stretch is 0.76.
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Francisco Liriano the one-time phenom has never recovered from arm problems that plagued him after his breakout season of 2006. He pitched briefly in 07 but missed all of last season and has been a mere shadow of his former pitching self.

Liriano is 3-8 this season with an ERA of 5.88. Hes 2-1 over his past three starts despite an ERA of 5.00 and a WHIP of 1.57. Granted the Cards are hitting just .200 vs. lefties over the past ten games but the addition of Mark De Rosa should help. The veteran IF was aquired by the Cards on Saturday night and his 13 homeruns and 50 rbis will be plugged in immediately.
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Im riding with Piniero for the second time this week and hope that anyone not named Pujols will help Prince Albert at the plate. Piniero has gotten three runs or fewer to work with in each of his last 11 starts and that probably wont get it done with a powerful offensive team like the Twins.

 
Posted : June 28, 2009 7:06 am
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Brad Diamond
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Play on: Colorado over Oakland
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Really like Vinny Mazzaro of Oakland who has put together a solid 2-2 record and a 2.56 ERA. However, the kid goes up against veteran hurler Aaron Cook who carries a 7-3 record and a respectable 4.00 ERA. The Rockies are 8-2 on Sunday's with Cook and have supported the righty lately going 4-0 last four times out. With Oakland 21-49 versus a winning club and 7-17 on Sunday's, the Diamond is all over the underdog Mile High gang.

 
Posted : June 28, 2009 7:07 am
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Red Dog Sports
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Boston at Atlanta
Play under the total
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These two played a 1-0 game yesterday and out of the last 37 meetings in Atlanta there have been 24 unders, 11 overs and 2 pushes. Brad Penny has an ERA of 1.62 in his last 3 while Tommy Hanson's is 1.06 and they have combined for 1 over and 5 unders in that span. Look for another under on Sunday!

 
Posted : June 28, 2009 7:08 am
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SportsPic
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New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
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The New York Yankees try to complete a three-game Subway Series sweep of the Mets at Citi Field in the final game of interleague play this season. Pinstripes 42-32 on the season, 9-8 in interleague play hand the ball to troubled Chien-Ming Wang (0-6, 11.20 ERA). Wang is 0-3 (1-3 TSR) in four starts since returning to the rotation with the righty surrendering three or more runs in each of the trips to the mound. It is well to note however that Yankees are 9-1 last ten on Sunday's with Wang touching toe to rubber including a perfect 4-0 on the highway. Meanwhile, Mets 37-36 overall, 5-9 vs the Junior Circuit this season counter with former Yankee Livan Hernandez (5-2, 4.05). Hernandez 0-2 (0-3 TSR) with a 4.66 ERA the past three is 0-3 in six life-time appearances vs his former team including a ND a few weeks back yielding 3 yard-ball 6 runs in the 9-8 loss.

 
Posted : June 28, 2009 7:10 am
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John Ryan
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia as they face Toronto slated to start at 1:05 EST. Phils bounced back with a convincing thrashing of the Blue Jays winning 10-0 and that positive performance will carry over to this game as well. Note that the Phils are 8-1 (+8.1 Units) against the money line in road games versus an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. Jamie Moyer is a solid 17-8 (+12.1 Units) against the money line versus teams outscoring opposition by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is just 9-16 (-12.0 Units) against the money line versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start over the last 2 seasons. Philadelphia has just gone through a tough slump, which all playoff and Championship teams endure at least once in a 162 game season. They are still scoring 5.8 runs in road games and the bullpen sports a solid 3.52 ERA in road games. Moyer is also coming off a solid start at Tamp Bay winning 10-1 where he went 6 innings allowed 1 ER on just 5 hits. Take Philadelphia.

 
Posted : June 28, 2009 7:11 am
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Rob Vinciletti
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SD Padres vs. Tex Rangers
Play: Tex Rangers -1.5
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The Rangers qualify in a solid 76% system that plays on home favorites of -140 or higher off a home favored loss if they scored 4 runs or less and our opponent is off a road dog winand scored 5 or more runs,providing todays total is 10 or higher.Texas fits this system due to their loss last night.Texas is 13-1 at home on the run line if they allowed 6 or more runs in the last game.In interleague play they are 10-5 at home vs rightys,9-3 vs less than 500 teams and 17-6 at home when the total is 10 to 10.5.SD is 11-42 on the road vs winning teams,0-7 vs rightys on the road in interleague play and 8-21 as an interleague underdog.The Padres have righty C.Gaudin pitching nad he is in terrible current form with a 6.18 road era and 7.31 in his last 3 starts.Texas has righty T.Hunter making his second start of they year tonight in what lloks to be a soft spot for him.Take Texas on the run line.

 
Posted : June 28, 2009 7:13 am
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Dominic Fazzini

Cincinnati at CLEVELAND -135
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The Phillies came through in a big way Saturday in my complimentary selection, beating the Blue Jays 10-0 behind the pitching of J.A. Happ and the power of Jayson Werth. I'm not promising another 10-run victory, but here's a winner for today.

Indians rookie David Huff (3-2, 5.71 ERA) is coming off the best of his eight major league starts, when he allowed four hits in eight scoreless innings Tuesday to beat the Pirates.

The left-hander has gotten progressively better since giving up seven runs in 3 2/3 innings at Tampa Bay in his big-league debut on May 17. Huff is taking the mound today against the Reds, who touched him up for six runs in three innings in his second major league start, on May 23.
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Huff is a different pitcher since then, however, going 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA over his last four starts.

He will be opposed by Cincinnati right-hander Micah Owings, who might be a better hitter (.305 career average) than pitcher. Unfortunately for the Reds, today’s game is in Cleveland, meaning Owings (4-8, 4.87) won’t get the chance to bat.

Owings was battered by the Blue Jays in his last start, allowing six runs on nine hits, including three homers, in 5 2/3 innings. He has never faced Cleveland.
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A win would give the Indians their first series victory against the Reds since May 2007. While Cincinnati has won 10 of the last 14 games against Cleveland, I don’t see it happening today. Go with the Indians.
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2♦ CLEVELAND

 
Posted : June 28, 2009 7:14 am
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Bobby Maxwell

L.A. Angels +120 at ARIZONA
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Today's FREE winner comes from the desert as we play the hottest team in interleague play, the Angels, to get the job done in Arizona against the D'Backs.

The best interleague team this season has been the Angels. They've gone 13-4 against the National League and they will make it 14-4 after today. We're playing Los Angeles to get the job done in Arizona and finish this sweep in the desert.
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Friday the Angels crushed the D'Backs 12-3 and then on Saturday they did it with pitching and timely hitting as Mike Napoli hit a one-out, ninth-inning pitch over the center field wall to give the Angels a 2-1 lead and eventual victory.

The Angels average 6-2 runs and are hitting .298 as a team against National League pitching. On the opposite side, the D'Backs have lost seven of eight overall and they are 5-9 against the American League.
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Matt Palmer (6-1, 4.70 ERA) is on the hill for Los Angeles as he tries to rebound from his first loss on Monday when he allowed six runs in 4.2 innings of a 11-1 loss in Colorado. Palmer is a 30-year-old rookie, so a loss like that shouldn't bother him.

On the opposite side is the D'Backs' Max Scherzer (5-4, 3.53 ERA) he has won three straight starts, but remember, it took this guy more than a year just to get his first career win. he threw 119 pitches against the Rangers on Tuesday and admitted to the press his arm was tired.

Look for the Angels to continue their domination and get to Scherzer early. Play Los Angeles in this one.
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4♦ L.A. ANGELS

 
Posted : June 28, 2009 7:15 am
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JIM FEIST
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LOS ANGELES ANGELS / ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Take ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
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Matt Palmer has been a winner for the Halos all season. The young righthander is 6-1 in 11 starts with a 4.70 era. He has pitched in some tough times of late, going 1-1 his last three starts with a 6.35 era, walking 10 and striking out just 13. Max Scherzer gets the start for the D'backs. Scherzer has been hot, going 3-0 his last three starts with a very nifty 1.83 era. In fact, Scherzer has a nice overall era of 3.53, though he's just 5-4 in 14 games. Scherzer also has a very nice strikeout ratio with just 32 walks in 79 innings compared to 81 strike outs. Palmer has a better record based on playing for a better overall team, but make no mistake, Scherzer is the better of the pitchers here.

 
Posted : June 28, 2009 7:18 am
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MTi Sports
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San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Brewers are 21-4 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series and the Giants are 1-14 as a road dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games. Consider Milwaukee.

 
Posted : June 28, 2009 7:49 am
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IndianCowboy
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Take Under 9 Boston Redsox @ Atlanta Braves
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It saddens me that my Braves are 34-40 this year. With the injuries to our starting rotation, we could certainly be better than what we are now. Having said that, we have been saying that quite some time here in the south and nothing has really changed as we have been a mediocre team for several years. Either way, it does excite me as a Braves fan to see Tommy Hanson come into his own this season. Hopefully, next year with him, Hudson and Lowe, it will be renewal of the 90's dynamic trio that we had. After all, despite a lax year, the Braves pitching staff are 5th in the league in quality starts and strikeouts. As per Tommy, the Oklahoma native is 3-0 over his last 3 starts and has given up just 2 runs in his last 16 innings - including defeating the Yankees at home and the Reds and Baltimore on the road. Penny has been pitching well for the Sox and I can't even begin to tell you how many Unders I have hit with Penny this season - actually, I can - 4 unders. Penny has not had a terrible start in his last 10 contests to be frank. He is 6-3-1 to the Under over his last 0 and given that there have been a total of six runs scored in the first two games, I expect a strong performance from both pitchers once again. In fact, I expect the Braves to win to avoid the sweep, but more importantly, I expect an under here. The Under is 5-1 for the Redsox when they are road underdogs and the Under is 6-1 for the Braves as a home favorite of late.

 
Posted : June 28, 2009 7:52 am
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