Matt Rivers
For Sunday take the Cubbies at US Cellular.
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I am not going to call this a great value or a total lock or anything like that as the Cubs are not a team that is very trustworthy right now but with that said Carlos Zambrano is a beast who should be fine today and the Cubs are still the superior team.
US Cellular is a ballpark that is conducive to the long ball. If the Big Z has that sinker going, which he has of late, then it will limit much of anything for the White Sox. Ozzie Guillen's team certainly has potential with Thome, Konerko, Pierzynski, Ramirez and a few others but all in all their sum just does not equal their parts and are mediocre at the very very best.
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John Danks toes the rubber for the home boys today and the lefty is solid and should hold his own. But to get quality righthanded bats in Soriano and Lee against the Southpaw with Zambrano on the hill makes me fine with the visitors in this spot.
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When push comes to shove, no matter how brutal they have been at times, the Cubbies are still around a 90 win club unlike the Sox who are probably in the 70's.
Zambrano and Lou's boys at this near pick-em price is fine with me.
Jake Timlin
Go with the Mets as they pound Wang to avoid the sweep.
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The selection of the Mets here is all due to the awful year Chin-Ming Wang is having. You see for Wang a year removed from winning 19 games at 0-6 with an ERA of 11.49 this season has been a major disaster. Even worst news for the Yankees is at 1-6 in his seven starts the righty has not given his team any chance of winning games when he starts.
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Not so for Hernandez who counters for the Mets at 5-2 with an ERA of 4.05 in 14 starts.
Well given that the Mets offense will get a break in facing Wang I expect for New York to avoid being swept at home.
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3♦ New York Mets
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
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The Twins can’t take care of business and end up costing us. That’s fine because we’re getting back on the winning track tonight as we’re taking the Total in the Yankees-Mets matchup.
The Total for this game is set at 10 runs and these two will blow right past that. Despite totaling only 5 runs yesterday, the Under has come in 3 of their 5 meetings this season, including 2 of the last 3 matchups. The Over is also 8-5 their last 13 contests against one another.
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Consider, too, that the Yankees have seen the Over come in 3 of their last 4 games overall and 4 of their last 6. The Mets have seen the Over go 4-3 their last 7 games
These teams will see the Over come in again as they blow past the Total easily tonight.
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3♦ YANKEES-METS OVER
Karl Garrett
NY Yankees at NY METS
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For Sunday night, look for the bats to be boppin' as the Yankees and Mets conclude another round of interleague play. The G-Man expects tonight's contest to see plenty of hits, and plenty of runs, as we head OVER the posted total.
The Mets have been held to just 1 run through the first 2 games of this 3-game set, but it seems likely they will be able to plate a few runs tonight, as Yankee starter Chien-Ming Wang does own an ERA of over 14 still!
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On the flip side, the Yankees have proved they can hit Livan Hernandez, as his last 3 starts against them have seen 18 runs score in just 15 innings of work.
The Yankees have scored 33 runs during their current 4-game winning streak, making the OVER the definite play tonight at CitiField.
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3♦ OVER
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees -130 at NY METS
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We are on a 15-9 comp play run the last 24 days.
Tonight we like the Yankees to sweep their in-city rival Mets at CitiField.
Things have taken a turn for the better for the team from the Bronx, as they have reeled off 4 straight wins, and over the first 2 games in this interleague series they have outscored the Mets 14-1.
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The Mets are just too banged up right now to seriously think they can avoid the broom from the Yankees who have won 4 of the 5 games contested between the clubs this year, and are also 4-1 the last 5 games played on Mets turf.
Chien-Ming Wang made just one bad pitch in his last start, as he absorbed yet another loss to drop to 0-6 for the year. We just cannot believe that the former 19-game winner is going to lose another start this evening, as the law of averages has got to catch up with him sometime doesn't it?
As for the Mets, Livan Hernandez has allowed 18 runs over his last 15 innings of work against the Yankees. We think it is clear the Bronx Bombers know how to hit this guy, and we think they will hit him once again today.
Lay the road wood with the Yankees to complete the sweep.
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5♦ NY YANKEES
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates +137
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I'll back the Bucs at a nice price at home this afternoon. The Pirates have won 4 in a row while the Royals have dropped 3 in a row and 8 of their last 10. The Royals send ace Zack Greinke to the hill to stop their skid, but they are just 1-4 in his last 5 starts, 1-5 in his last 6 starts during game 3 of a series, and 3-8 in his last 11 Sunday starts. The Royals are just 12-22 on the road this season and only 6-14 in their last 20 games as a favorite. The Pirates are an impressive 7-0 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 7-2 in their last 9 games as a home underdog. Bet the Bucs showing solid value in the home dog role today.
Ben Burns
Minnesota Twins at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Over
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The total in yesterday's game was a '9' and the score was 5-3 after just three innings. The teams didn't score a single run after that though, making for a tough loss for those who wagered on the 'over.' Yesterday's result should work in our favor as the teams combined to use nearly 12 innings from their bullpens - neither starting pitcher lasted past the third inning.
Joel Pineiro gets the start for the Cardinals and he's 2-5 with a 4.34 ERA and a .307 BAA in his career against the Twins. While it's been a couple of years now, naturally, Minnesota became quite familiar with him during all his years in the American League with the Mariners. Pineiro has solid stats and was admittedly very sharp last time out, as he tossed a complete game shutout. However, he'd previously had lost eight of his last nine starts and he hasn't been nearly as good when pitching during the afternoon. Pineiro is just 1-3 in day games with a 4.50 ERA. Opponents have hit .330 against him in those games.
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Francisco Liriano gets the start for the Twins and he's just 3-8 this season with a 5.88 ERA. He's 2-4 on the road with an even worse 6.32 ERA. Liriano did win his last start but he previously had lost four straight. In his career, Liriano has been strong at home but has struggled on the road. He has a 4.76 ERA on the road in his career. Liriano is also just 6-6 in day games with a 4.34 ERA in his career. Each of his last three starts finished above the number.
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The Twins have scored five runs or more in nine of their last 17 games. During that stretch, they've averaged 4.6 runs per game. The Cardinals have averaged 5.1 runs per game in their last 17 games. For the season, they've averaged 4.9 runs when playing during the afternoon. With the line at 8.5, I feel that the 'over' is worthy of consideration.
Evan Altemus
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STL / MIN Under 8.5
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Both of these line-ups have not been hitting well lately, specifically in this series. Yesterday almost all of the runs were scored by two home runs by Albert Pujols and a double from Minnesota. This weak offensive output by Minnesota is particularly notable because Todd Wellemeyer, who has been inconsistent all season, pitched for St. Louis. Today lefty Francisco Liriano takes the mound for the Twins, and he should have success against the Cardinals. St. Louis really struggles against lefties, even at home. Meanwhile, Joel Piniero has pitched very well lately. He will have no problem shutting down the struggling Twins.
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2 UNIT SELECTION
Dwayne Bryant
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Yankees at Mets +112
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Summary: This is definitely more of a play against Wang rather than a play on Hernandez and the banged-up Mets. Wang has been just plain horrible (0-6, 14.65 ERA, 2.61 WHIP), especially on the road (0-4, 16.05 ERA, 3.00 WHIP). This is also a shaky spot for the Yankees, as this is their last game of a 10-day road trip before returning home. Teams will many times "mail it in" in these situations. I'll take the Mets to avoid the home sweep on national TV.
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles
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Baltimore is a well documented 7-29 in Sunday games over the last two seasons, but it also appears as if they are due for a pitching letdown as the team has a 2-15 record when allowing three runs or less in consecutive games. John Lannan (2.61 ERA L3 starts) is the one arm that consistently gives Washington a chance, so we'll look for him to win for a second consecutive year at Camden Yards.
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Play on: Washington
Alex Smart
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Cleveland Indians -137
David Huff the Tribes southpaw starting pitcher this afternoon against the visiting Cincinnati Reds has gotten better with each successive trip he had made to the hill in eight big-league starts, which recently culminated in eight scoreless innings of work in his last start for a win. Huff is now 3-0 along with a very stable 3.20 ERA in his last four starts.
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I know the Tribe are not looking like viable bets for an AL playoff appearance this season, but the day after management showed their displeasure with the teams performance, by trading one their top offensive producers, Mark DeRosa . I expect a a wake up outing will be on the Indians agenda. With Huff in top form, and the Reds proving to inconsistent commodities, it will be easy decision to back the Indians of Ohio.
Final notes & Key Trends: The Reds are 7-25 L/32 against an AL starting pitcher like Huff with a WHIP of between 1.400 to 1.500 .Home team is 8-0 in umpire Andy Fletchers last 8 games behind home plate vs. Cleveland .
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Play on the Indians
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
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ARI (-130) vs ANA
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Los Angeles (40-32) is averaging 6.2 runs and batting .298 against the NL, and it improved on both numbers with an 11-3 win over Colorado on Wednesday and a 12-3 victory over Arizona in the series opener Friday night, however I expect it to stumble this evening! Justin Upton will try to get back on track in support of Arizona starter Max Scherzer (5-4, 3.53 ERA). The right-hander has won three straight starts and posted a 1.46 ERA in four outings since he was tagged for a career-high eight runs in 3 2-3 innings of a loss to Atlanta on May 31. Look for the Angels to fall to a sub par 4-9 (-4.4 units) as a road dog of +100 to +135; play on ARIZONA!
Tom Freese
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Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
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Detroit is 52-23 their last 75 Interleague games and they are 6-1 their last 7 games vs. righty starters. The Tigers are 21-8 their last 29 games as favorites. Starting pitcher Edwin Jackson has allowed 8 runs total in his last 5 starts. Houston is 26-56 their last 82 Interleague games as underdogs and they are 4-11 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. The Astros are 2-8 their last 10 games as home dogs of +110 to +150. PLAY ON DETROIT w/Jackson
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -145
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I'll back the Tigers playing with double revenge this afternoon behind starting pitcher Edwin Jackson, who boasts a nearly unhittable 1.89 road ERA. On top of that, Jackson is 2-0 lifetime against Houston with an ERA of 3.78 and a WHIP of 1.261 with his team winning all 3 of his career starts against the Astros. If we dig a little bit deeper, we find that he is 8-0 vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season in his career with his team winning by an average score of 6.6 to 2.8 in these spots. And, Detroit 19-4 vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 6.7 to 4.3 in these games. I'll back the Tigers in this bounce back spot behind one of the lowest ERA guys in baseball.
The Sports Investing Professional
For Sunday, just one play on the board. I looked and ran numbers
and considered Washington for the first 5 innings but in the end
I think there is only one play worth the investment. NYY / NYM
OVER 10. I also considered the Mets for a variety of reasons
even beyond the fact that Wang is like a batting practice machine.
If you have a 10+ ERA you should have to take the mound in a
clown suit.....big red nose and all. The problem with the Mets is
that Hernandez is a gas can in his own right and you can't even
trust him to keep the Yanks in single digits. So instead of throwing
a dart at the side lets just watch the fireworks and know there is
a pretty good shot that one of these two gets completely torched.
MLB - NY Yankees / NY Mets OVER 10[listED]: Wang / Hernandez] 550 / 500