Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 30

Marc Lawrence

Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers and Rays wrap up a three game series in Tampa Sunday afternoon where Rick Porcello opposes Jeremy Hellickson at Tropicana Field. Porcello takes the mound is strong KW form with 57 strikeouts and 10 walks in his last ten starts. He is also 3-1 in his career team starts in this series, and 4-1 his last five away team starts during June. On the flip side, Hellickson is 1-3 in his career team starts against the Tigers, including 0-2 at home. Look for more of the same here this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

Stephen Nover

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins

Are the Padres better than the Marlins where they should be favored on the road? Not for this matchup.

The Marlins, reinforced with their key hitters back from injury, have been more than just respectable this month going 14-10. Star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton is batting .385 at Marlins Park in 10 home games since coming off the DL on June 10.

While the Marlins have gotten healthy, the Padres have gotten unlucky with injuries. San Diego is without three of its top three hitters, Everth Cabrera, Jedd Gyorko and Yonder Alonso. Cabrera and Gyorko are first and second, respectively, on the Padres in runs scored. They represent 22 percent of San Diego's total amount of runs scored on the season. Alonso is tied for the second-most RBIs on the Padres despite not having played this month.

The Padres' offense isn't nearly strong enough to overcome those multiple injuries. The Padres have dropped seven of their last 12.

Does the pitching matchup of Andrew Cashner versus Nathan Eovaldi justify the Padres opening a road favorite? Again, the answer is no. They are both promising young pitchers. Cashner is better at home throwing at Petco Park,the premier pitching park in the majors.

Eovaldi has a strong 2.72 lifetime ERA in six starts at Marlins Park. Cashner's road ERA is 4.39 in nine appearances, including six starts.

Eovaldi is pitching under-the-radar after recently returning from the 60-day DL. He was a highly thought of Dodgers prospect who came to the Marlins as part of the Hanley Ramirez trade last year. Eovaldi showed in his last start that he's rounded back into pitching shape reaching 98 mph on his velocity while holding the Giants to two runs in six innings while striking out seven last Sunday at San Francisco.

Jimmy Boyd

Philadelphia Phillies +105

The Phillies offense has been rolling recently. They have a .297 team batting average over their past seven games and they are scoring 6.3 runs per game during that span. Kyle Kendrick has been lights out in his 16 starts posting a 3.46 ERA and the Indians are 10-6 as a team with him on the mound.

The Dodgers are not scoring a lot of runs at home this year which has a lot to do with the reason they sit seven games below a .500 record. They are scoring 3.5 runs per game and I expect them to struggle today when facing Kendrick. Last night the Dodgers blew another save opportunity against the Phillies, but squeaked out a run in the bottom of the ninth inning to pick up a win. With Kendrick getting the start for the Phillies I expect their fortunes to change tonight.

GamePlan

Los Angeles Angels -175

The Angels go for the sweep today and their 6th straight win. We have told everyone not to count this team out just yet after the slow start. The pitching is getting healthy and the bats are starting to come alive. Remarkably we have been on this team for 5 straight games with our Executive Service and they have come through for us all five times.

CJ Wilson takes the mound today and is good pitching form as he is 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA over his last three starts. In contrast, Lucas Harrell is not in good pitching form as he has a 6.46 ERA over his last three starts. Harrell on the season also has a 6.23 ERA at home and the Astros are 6-11 when he starts this season.

Angels are 8-2 in Wilson's last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Angels are 11-4 in Wilson's last 15 starts as a road favorite.Astros are 0-6 in Harrells last 6 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200. Astros are 0-4 in Harrells last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take the LA Angels today.

Dave Price

Milwaukee Brewers +133

The Pirates have been playing phenomenal baseball, but it's the Brewers who are showing value at this price because they are putting the better starter on the hill. Lohse has been in a groove. The Brewers have won four of his last five starts during a stretch where he's gone 2-0 with an ERA of 2.45. The right-hander has a terrific track record against the Pirates. He's 4-0 with a 3.03 ERA in his past six outings against them and 5-1 with a 3.58 ERA in 10 career games at PNC Park. Pittsburgh's Morton, meanwhile, has had no luck against the Brew Crew, going 0-4 with a 6.67 ERA in six starts against them. The Pirates are 19-39 in Morton's last 58 starts and 25-61 in their last 86 games versus Milwaukee. Take the Brewers.

Brad Diamond

Texas Rangers -153

The Reds hurler Matt Latos (7-1, 3.05) will have a difficult assignment today trying to overcome the artistry of Yu Darvish of Texas (7-3, 2.95). In his last 11 ½ IP Darvish has allowed 7 earned runs, but he has recorded 16 strikeouts. Over the last five home starts Darvish has given up 10 earned runs (2.0). Remember the bats have slumbered down in Cincy and they have lost 5 straight in interleague play versus RHP. In addition, the Reds have lost 8 straight games overall in interleague. With the Rangers Darvish 9-0 in game #3 of a series, I will take a ticket with home standing Texas. Good Luck, and don’t misss Brad Diamond is on a 8-1 run on the Playbook. So, stay right here.

Art Aronson

Yankees vs. Orioles
Play: Under 8½

Hiroki Kuroda (7-5, 2.77 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Kuroda gave up three runs off five hits with a walk and six strikeouts over 6 2/3's innings in a no-decision vs. the Rangers on Tuesday. Kuroda has been as solid as you could hope for this season and sports a very respectable 3.38 ERA on the road. Kuroda will be opposed by Chris Tillman (9-2, 3.72 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits with six strikeouts over seven innings of work. Tillman has now won five consecutive outings and owns a fantastic 5-2, 2.16 ERA home record. I believe the table is set for these two capable starters to battle into the latter frames and as a result, I'll recommend a second look at the "under" in this one.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros
Play: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels are looking to sweep Houston here as the road team continues to dominate this series having won the last 7 times. LA fits a solid road warrior system that plays on road favorites at -140 or higher that are off a road favored win by 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a home dog loss by 5+ runs and scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits. Houston has lost 14 of 20 as a home dog from +125 to +150 and 10 of 13 Sunday. The Angels are 16-8 as a road favorite from -150 to -175 and have averaged 5.7 runs the past week. In the pitching matchup C.J. Wilson for the Angles has allowed 6 earned runs in 20 innings vs Houston this season and usually is money vs losing teams. L. Harrell has a hideous 6.23 home era this season. Look for the Angels to bring out the brooms and complete the sweep.

Jeffrey Brandes

Atlanta Braves -139

Pitchers:
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS: TREVOR CAHILL (R) ERA: 4.29 W/L: 3-9
ATLANTA BRAVES: PAUL MAHOLM (L) ERA: 3.75 W/L: 8-6

TREVOR CAHILL has an 0-4 record and a 9.30 ERA in five June starts. On Tuesday, Cahill allowed six runs on eight hits in five innings against the Nationals.

In six home starts, southpaw PAUL MAHOLM has recorded a 4-2 record and a 1.80 ERA.

Jim Feist

Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers
Pick: Cincinnati Reds

The Texas Rangers have seen their lead in the AL West shrink to just one game over Oakland, while the Cincinnati Reds are now 4 1/2 back of Pittsburgh in the NL Central. But what really caught my eye here was the line. The oddsmakers installed the Rangers as a 1.50 favorite. That's a hefty line in this matchup. The reason is because the Reds have been cold of late, winning just three of their last 10. However, with Mat Latos on the hill today, that dog price has some great value to it. Latos allowed just one earned run his last start and is 7- this season with a 3.05 ERA. The Rangers have equal power on the mound with Yu Darvish. Darvish is 7-3 this season with a 2.95 ERA. But value is with the dog here. We have to call this pitching matchup a draw and both clubs have hitting prowess. I can't pass on live dogs, especially at +1.40. Your free play for Sunday is on the visiting Cincinnati Reds.

Bruce Marshall

St. Louis Cardinals at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics

Fully respect St. Louis, but we're not ready to jump off of the A's after a rare home loss on Saturday, just their third setback in their last 18 games at the Coliseum. Sunday starter Tommy Milone has been much more effective when pitching at home this season, as his 2.82 ERA in Oakland would attest, and remember that he also posted a 2.74 ERA at the Coliseum last season. The recently-beleaguered Cardinal bullpen was able to take it easy on Sunday when Adam Wainwright went the distance and tossed a 5-hitter, but today's starter Jake Westbrook has gone beyond 6 inning just once in his last eight starts, and over his last four starts has a not-so-dominant 3.86 ERA. Also note St. Louis' subpar 2-5 record over the past week. Play A's

Will Rogers

San Francisco vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado

I'll look to make it three in a row with the Rockies on free picks this weekend as they look to sweep the division rival Giants right out of town. Granted, the pitching matchup is not quite as tilted in the favor of the home team as its been the last two days. But San Francisco is slumping so badly right now, that shouldn't matter.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Slumping Giants - I said yesterday that things had not been going well for the reigning World Series Champs & it continued with another loss, by a score of 2-1 in walkoff fashion. It was the team's sixth loss in a row and eighth in nine games. Offensively, they have not scored more than five runs in any of those last nine games and are now averaging just two runs per game during the six-game skid. In fact, San Francisco has not scored more than five runs in a game in over two weeks! They have lost seven in a row on the road.

2. Bumgarner at Coors - Giants starter Madison Bumgarner has a 12.00 ERA his last two starts here at Coors Field, including a loss on May 17 where he allowed a career-worst nine runs in just 4 2/3 innings.

3. X-Factor - The Rockies have now beaten the Giants six of eight times, including five straight here at home.

Jesse Schule

Toronto vs. Boston
Pick: Boston

The Jays won yesterday taking advantage of a poor effort from the Red Sox bullpen. Esmil Rogers also gave Toronto six scoreless innings, something that today's starter Mark Buehrle is going to have a tough time replicating.

Buehrle (4-5) allowed four runs on eight hits, walking four over just five innings in a loss to Tampa in his last start. He's been terrible on the road all year, posting a record of 1-4, with a 5.79 ERA in eight starts. He's also struggled versus the Red Sox, going 0-3 with an ERA over 5.00 in five starts since 2010. He's really been roughed up at Fenway during that span, allowing 10 runs on 17 hits in 12 innings of work in two losses.

The thought of facing Big Pappi is likely going to cause Buehrle to soil his undergarments, Ortiz is hitting .358 with three home runs in 67 at bats versus the southpaw.

The Canadian Ryan Dempster will get the nod for the home team, knowing that the game will be broadcast live across Canada, and friends and family will be watching. Dempster (5-8, 4.15 ERA) has been far better than his record suggests. He's 3-3 in his last six starts, but all six of those have been quality starts, allowing three runs or less over six or more innings.

If Dempster can extend his string of quality starts, the Red Sox should have no trouble getting him a few runs today.

Sc Live Dogs

Colorado Rockies +105

Why we like the Rockies on Sunday at +105...going to fade the Giants in this road game where they are playing to a 14-27 road record on the season averaging 4.2 rpg while allowing 5.2 rpg. Aside from their road woes this season is the fact that the Giants are 1-8 in their last 9 overall games where they are averaging just 2.3 rpg with a .234 average while allowing 4.4 rpg during that stretch. The Rockies on the other hand have now won their last 4 of 7 games while averaging 4 rpg with a .288 average and allowing 4.1 rpg during that stretch. Those numbers are not whopping by any means, but they do have a built in home field advantage where they are 25-18 AT Coors Field on the season where they are averaging 5.4 rpg with a .288 average while allowing 4.5 rpg. The Giants will be pitching Madison Bumgarner who comes into this game with a 3.20 era on the season as well as a 1.71 era over his last 21 innings. We do make note that his last 14 innings were a bit misleading as they were both in the pitcher friendly parks of Dodger Stadium and Petco Park. With this game being pitched AT Coors Field, there is reason to back this home dog as Bumgarner has not fared well in his last two starts AT Coors Field where he allowed a combined 12 runs on 19 hits , 3 BBs and 6 Ks through 8 innings of work; including one of those starts being in 2013. There is more reason to fade Bumgarner on Sunday as he will be pitching this game on 5 days of rest, where on the season he sees his era elevate from a 3.20 overall era to a 3.96 era on 5 days of rest. Offensively, this Rockies lineup has a combined 153 ABs off of Bumgarner where they have a .301 average with 6 HRs. The Rockies will be pitching Drew Pomeranz who will be making his 2013 debut. Pomeranz has been pitching well over his last two starts down in Triple-A where he has allowed a combined 2 runs on 8 hits, 0 BBs, 14 Ks and 0 HRs through his last 13 innings of work. Also worth noting is that through his 2013 minor league campaign, Pomeranz has a 2.50 era during his daytime starts where he had allowed just 14 hits on 7 BBs, 24 Ks and 0 HRs through his 18 daytime innings. While pitching AT Coors Field during his 2012 season, Pomeranz did not shy away as he did post a respectable 4.91 era while allowing just 6 HRs through 51 innings at the hitter friendly Coors Field. From a bullpen perspective, we are looking at a home edge as the Rockies are posting a 3.38 home era with just 14 HRs allowed while the Giants have a road era of 3.43.