Bryan Power
Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
This is a good price on the Bucs, who are going for the sweep Sunday. They were my 'free play' each of the last two games as they improved to 5-1 this year at PNC Park vs. Milwaukee. As I said yesterday, these are two teams at the opposite end of the spectrum heading in very different directions.....
Pittsburgh became the first team in MLB to 50 wins w/ the 2-1 win Saturday. They have won eight straight as they've steamrolled to the best record in baseball. Pitching has been a major key and so far they've held Milwaukee to four runs in the first two games. In three starts this season, Charlie Morton has a 2.81 ERA.
Nothing has changed with either of these sides since I wrote about them yesterday. Today, there's an additional factor working in the Bucs' favor, that being that it's a day game. They are a MLB best 20-11 in afternoon start times while Milwaukee is a Senior Circuit worst 9-20. The Brewers have scored just 10 runs total the last four games, going 3 for 16 w/ RISP. Guess what? The Brew Crew are still a lousy road team too; they're now 18-44 as a road dog since the start of last season. The Pirates are now 27-13 at home this season.
Matt Fargo
NY Yankees vs. Baltimore
Pick: NY Yankees
The Yankees have lost four straight games heading into this series finale on Sunday but I feel this is a great spot to end the skid. New York is now a game under .500 on the road and going back it is just 1-7 in its last eight games on the highway. The offense has been the issue as it has scored three runs or less in six of those seven losses but I see a breakout tonight. The Yankees are 42-15 in their last 57 games after losing the first two games of a series and send Hiroki Kuroda to the hill to stop the bleeding. He has been pitching very well, posting three straight quality starts and putting up a 2.53 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in those games. He was rocked for five runs on eight hits in just two innings in his first start in Baltimore this season so it is revenge time. The Yankees are 7-3 in Kuroda's last 10 starts as an underdog. The Orioles meanwhile have won three straight games to move to within two and a half games of Boston for first place in the American League East. The offense has led the way but the Orioles are just 1-4 in their last five games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Chris Tillman gets the call in this series finale and he too has been pitching very well, posting four quality outings over his last five starts and allowing three runs or fewer in all of those games. The Yankees have been a problem for him however as he has an 8.16 ERA and 2.16 WHIP against them in seven career starts. Look for Baltimore's seven-game winning streak in his starts to come to an end tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago +105 over SEATTLE
Edwin Jackson owns an ugly 5.84 ERA, 1.56 WHIP line after 82 innings but his base skills have been good. Jackson has 73 K’s in those 82 frames and also has a strong 51% groundball profile. With the bases empty, Jackson’s numbers have been as good as any pitcher in the league. His troubles all stem from a ridiculously unlucky 62% strand rate. Jackson’s xERA of 3.98 is almost two runs lower than his actual ERA and with some inevitable better fortune, there's some nice profit potential here. That said, this one is more about fading Jeremy Bonderman pitching for the Mariners, a combo in which the risk swamps the reward.
It really is amazing ... baseball "experts" everywhere are singing the praises of Jeremy Bonderman and his 3.30 ERA after five starts and 1.40 ERA over his last three starts. "His fastball is hitting the corners”. "His slider is keeping batters off balance", they say. Good thing you are reading this because this is the only sentence you should believe ... "This is still Jeremy Bonderman." In eight seasons with the Tigers in his prime, Bonderman’s best ERA year was 4.08 in 2006. In 2008 his ERA was 4.29 and every other year it was close to or over 5.00. He’s been a stiff his entire career and he hasn’t discovered anything new. Bonderman also missed 2011 and 2012 before the M’s took a flyer on him. At Triple-AAA before his emergency call-up, Bonderman put up a less-than-impressive 4.52 ERA in 63 innings of work. In 30 innings over his five starts for Seattle, Bonderman has struck out 10 and walked 10. His xERA is 5.22, suggesting that some serious ERA regression is forthcoming. It’s a nice story for now but the most likely scenario here is that Bonderman is torched over his next few starts and his stay in Seattle will be a very short one. Misleading ERA’s of these two starters works in our favor.
Jeff Benton
Just because the Indians and White Sox didn't make their way Over the total, doesn't mean that they will stay Under the total again here on Sunday.
My Sunday freebie is for the Over to come through in the finale of this long 4 game set.
Friday's doubleheader saw 46 combined runs in the pair of meetings, as both games sailed well Over the price. Yesterday it was only 7 combined runs for an Under, but the Over is 3-1 in the Indians last 4 games, and the Over is also 7-3 the last 10 times the Pale Hose have seen action.
Masterson and Sale are two of your better pitchers, but Masterson's ERA away from home is over 5, and 2 of Sale's last 3 starts have wound up going Over the total.
Just enough offense today to get the Indians and White Sox Over for the third time in four meetings this weekend.
1♦ CLEVELAND-WHITE SOX OVER
Brad Wilton
Your Sunday comp play is the Under in the Nationals-Mets game at Citi Field.
Gio Gonzalez with take the mound for a Washington team that has been Under the total in 3 of their last 4 games. Likewise, the Mets have been Under in 3 of their last 4 games, and they will go with the rookie Zack Wheeler who had an awesome major league debut only to be followed with a rough start at the White Sox in a game he was tipping his breaking ball.
Look for Wheeler to impress in his first home start of his young career, and look for Gonzalez to be right there with him as the pair combine to shut down the hitting today.
The Under has come through in 3 of the last 5 season series meetings between the teams, and the Mets also happen to be on a 13-5 Under run the last 18 times they have played ball on a Sunday.
With Gio Gonzalez allowing just 2 runs or less in each of his last 5, and 9 of his last 10 overall, look for this game to be low-scoring.
Under the call in the Nats-Mets game.
2♦ WASHINGTON-N.Y. METS UNDER
Brett Atkins
I know Chicago starter Chris Sale is just 5-6 on the year, but I'm not giving up on this kid.
The fiery southpaw was one out awy from picking up his first win in five June starts, but was forced to settle for a 13-strikeout no-decision thanks to an infield dropped popup in the ninth inning. Though Sale is 0-4 with a 3.12 ERA this month, he's recorded 43 strikeouts over 34-1/3 innings, and overall this year he has a 2.75 ERA.
I do love the mismatch over Justin Masterson, since Cleveland's right-hander has gone 2-4 with a 5.20 ERA in his last seven starts after starting the season 7-2 with a 2.83 ERA in his first 10 turns. But I'm not listing Masterson cause in the event he were to be scratched, I still wouldn't mind whatever the matchup would be since Sale is my main reason for playing the South Siders.
Chicago wins this A.L. Central rivalry clash. List Sale only.
4♦ CHICAGO
Chris Jordan
Hard to deny the Pittsburgh Pirates at this point, right? I mean they're the first MLB team to hit 50 wins this season, they have the best record in baseball. They're doing it with the No. 1 pitching staff in baseball, as it currently sports a league-best 3.17 ERA.
Last night's 2-1 win gave the Pirates an eight-game winning streak and 50 wins prior to July 1 for the first time in franchise history. So talk about momentum for any team right now, you have to side with the Pirates and look at this as a value play when we're laying a price less than the traditional goto number for a Run Line play.
The Brewers have lost four straight and won't want to do anything more than getting out of this series and getting the hell out of Steeltown. Lay the chalk.
4♦ PITTSBURGH
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Seattle Mariners, and though I'm listing both pitchers on this game - Jeremy Bonderman and Edwin Jackson - this is mainly against Jackson, who has struggled to find a groove all season with the Cubbies, and will get beat today, no doubt about it.
Jackson comes into this one after getting roughed up by the Brewers in his last start, in which he allowed six runs over 4-2/3 innings. I know he is 3-0 in his career against the Mariners, including a 2-0 record at Safeco Field, but when you're pitching for a team like the Cubs, and can't get much done, it's nearly hopeless.
I'd rather side with Bonderman, who has allowed just four runs in his last four appearances, and seems to be well past the road to recovery after a slew of injuries kept him from starting a game. He's 1-1 with a 3.30 ERA on the year, and should have no trouble against the Cubbies' futile offense, that has the seventh-worst batting average (.241) in the league.
Take the M's and list both.
4♦ SEATTLE
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
The simulator shows a high probability that Philadelphia will get a much needed win. The season has all but slipped away from the Phillies and once again the offense and bullpen cost Cliff Lee a win last night. However, they have been a resilient team for years and just when you think the ‘game is over’ they find a way to fight back to the brink of contention again. Dodgers are in a series of weak positions for a win today. Note they are just 14-27 (-17.9 Units) against the money line facing good fielding teams averaging <=0.6 errors/game this season; 6-15 (-11.1 Units) against the money line facing an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season. Philadelphia will start Kendrick and he is having a strong season posting a 7-4 mark with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.191 WHIP in 16 starts. In his last start he won 6-2 at San Diego going 8 innings allowing 2 ER on 7 hits and struckout 6 batters while walking none. I strongly believe he will get the job done again today. Take the Phillies.
Jeff Alexander
Washington Nationals -134
The Nationals get the call as our free play with the more proven starter on the rubber. The Nationals are 34-16 in Gonzalez's last 50 starts, 20-7 in his last 27 road starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a road favorite. The Mets have lost 20 of their last 28 at home as well as 14 of their last 18 home meetings with Washington. The Nationals are also 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts versus the Mets. Bet Washington.
Sports Experts 17
Tulsa Shock at Washington Mystics
Pick: Washington Mystics
Even Tulsa Shock is not a good team and one of the worst in WNBA, they covered ATS for 7 games in a row until they face 2 days ago a injury Indiana team that won 69-80 and finish that run of winning big dogs lines. Today Washington girls will win this one easy and bring back the Shock to their reality on cover some lines, but not 7 in a row... Very good situation give Sports Experts 17 team to take Washington Mystics -4 points.
Wunderdog
Washington at New York Mets
Pick: Washington -135
Washington has more wins on the road than New York has at home. After winning their first three home series, the Mets have claimed only one set at Citi Field since, sweeping a pair from the New York Yankees on May 27-28. The Nationals are 23-9 as a road favorite and have one of their best arms going in Gio Gonzalez (4-3, 3.31 ERA), who has a 2.23 ERA his last three starts striking out 23 in 20 innings. The Nationals are 20-7 in Gonzalez's last 27 road starts. The Mets go with young Dan Wheeler, who took a step back in his second start: He gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday. Command has been Wheeler's biggest worry, as he has issued eight walks and hit a batter in 11 1/3 innings at the big-league level. The Mets are 8-20 in their last 28 home games, and 6-21 as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Mets are just 15-24 at home, and they've lost 14 of the last 18 meetings with Washington at Citi Field. Play the Nationals.
Rocketman
San Francisco @ Colorado
Play : San Francisco -113
The San Francisco Giants travel to Colorado to take on the Rockies on Sunday afternoon. Colorado is 9-24 last 3 years as a home underdog of +100 to +125. Colorado is 19-45 last 3 years when playing on Sunday. Colorado is 53-84 last 3 years when playing in day games. Madison Bumgarner takes the mound for the Giants where he is 7-5 with a 3.20 ERA overall this year and 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA his last 3 starts. Drew Pomeranz will be making his first start of the season for the Rockies. San Francisco is 33-15 overall vs Colorado the past 3 years. Bumgarner is 6-4 with a 3.23 ERA in all his starts vs Colorado in his career. We'll recommend a small play on San Francisco today!
Jack Jones
St. Louis Cardinals +121
The St. Louis Cardinals are showing excellent value as a road underdog to the Oakland A's this afternoon. After losing five of their last seven games overall, they'll be highly motivated for a victory in this one.
Jake Westbrook just seems to get better with age. The right-hander has gone 4-2 with a 2.21 ERA over nine starts this season. He is also 5-5 with a 3.90 ERA in 14 career starts against Oakland.
Westbrook is clearly the better starter in this one. He'll be up against Tom Milone, who is 6-7 with a 4.06 ERA in 16 starts this season. Milone has really struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.620 WHIP in his last three starts.
St. Louis is 11-3 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in road games in day games this season. The Cardinals are 11-4 (+8.7 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. St. Louis is 9-2 in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The A's are 3-8 in Milone's last 11 starts as a favorite. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.