Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, May 30,2010

Hollywood Sports

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

Clayton Kershaw is enjoying a fantastic season for Los Angeles. So far, he sports a 4-3 record with a 2.90 ERA. But over his last four starts, he has allowed only two earned runs for a sparkling 0.64 ERA along with a 0.88 WHIP. This afternoon's game offers prime conditions for Kershaw as he has a 2.28 ERA on the road and a 1.71 ERA during day games this season. The Dodgers have won five straight games against teams with a winning record with Kershaw on the hill. He squares off against Colorado's rookie hurler Jhoulys Chacin who is 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA. But Chacin has struggled in Coors Field as he has a 5.95 ERA pitching at home as opposed to his 1.54 ERA when on the road. The Dodgers will likely take advantage of Chacin's struggles in Coors as they have won 13 of their last 18 games against right-handed starters. Take the Dodgers with the money line while listing both starting pitchers.

John Ryan

St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

3* graded play on the Cubs as they host the Cardinals set to start at 2:20 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Cubs will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-17 making 27.7 units since 2004. Play against road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 with an excellent defensive catcher allowing <=0.35 SB's/game on the season facing an opponent starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing. Cubs are struggling to find their footings this season, BUT they are in a very strong position today. Note that they are 20-1 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in home games versus a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 3 seasons. Cubs starter Dempster is a solid 33-13 (+20.4 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1997.Take the Cubs.

Steve Merril

Arizona Diamondbacks +105

Ian Kennedy has been one of the best pitchers for the Diamondbacks this season. Kennedy is in good current form as he is 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA over his last three starts. He takes the mound on Sunday as Arizona wraps up a series with San Francisco. Kennedy defeated the Giants in Arizona ten days ago as he gave up just one run and three hits in eight innings of work. In that game, he struck out nine and walked only three with Giants hitters going 5 for 29 against Kennedy.

San Franciscos Todd Wellemeyer was on the other end of Kennedy's win in Arizona. He gave up five runs and four hits in five innings of work in that game. With that loss, he fell to 1-3 with a 5.57 ERA in four career starts against the Diamondbacks. Stephen Drew (7-11) and Conor Jackson (3-10) have had the most success against the righty. Arizona is averaging 5.7 runs per game in the 15 day games theyve played this season. We'll recommend a play on Arizona plus the short price in this game this afternoon.

BIG AL

Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have emerged as perhaps the best team in Major League Baseball this season and have already put together win streaks of 7, 6, and 5 games (twice). Not surprisingly, the Rays are a solid 24-10 this year off a win, so that bodes well as Tampa bested Chicago on Saturday. Today, they'll go up against veteran Jake Peavy, who has looked NOTHING like his former self this season. Peavy brings a 7.08 ERA over his last three starts into Tropicana Field (and his ERA for the season isn't much better at 6.05). James Shields will get the ball for the Rays, and he's been superb in 2010, with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 10 starts. Peavy has struggled mightily in his career vs. Tampa Bay, with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP, and we'll look for the Rays to triumph over Chicago and Peavy in this Sunday afternoon contest. Lay the price with Tampa Bay.

BEN BURNS

Pirates @ Braves
PICK: Under 9

After Friday's opener finished with 10 runs, yesterday's game finished with nine, landing right on the number. I feel that this afternoon's finale has a good shot at being the lowest-scoring of the bunch.

Kawakaimi is an awful 0-7 on the season. However, he's been better than that record indicates recently, as he has a very solid 3.31 ERA and 1.225 WHIP his last three starts. Over that stretch, he has 14 K's to just three walks. In his last home start, he tossed six shutout innings. He should be happy to see a Pittsburgh team which ranks near the bottom of the league offensively.

Maholm has been very sharp lately. In his last three starts, he has a stellar 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. All three of those games stayed below the total, finishing with scores of 2-1, 4-3 and 4-3.

Maholm has made four career starts vs. Atlanta. He has an outstanding 1.33 ERA in those games, all of which stayed below the total. Those games averaged a mere 4.5 combined runs, finishing with scores of 3-1, 3-0, 5-1 and 3-2. Consider the Under

Jack Jones

San Francisco Giants -113

The Giants look to cap off the series sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks to return the favor Sunday. San Francisco was swept at the hands of Arizona earlier this month on the road, and they want to give the Diamondbacks a little taste of their own medicine in this one. The Giants are 2-0 in this series heading into Sunday, outscoring Arizona 17-1 in the process. That improves the Giants to 17-9 at home this season where they are allowing just 2.7 RPG.

Giants' starter Todd Wellemeyer has been at his best at home, going 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.088 WHIP. He'll have the support of a bullpen tonight that has posted a miniscule 1.82 ERA at home this year. Wellemeyer wants a little revenge himself after losing to Ian Kennedy and the Diamondbacks on the road earlier this season. San Francisco is 32-13 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is 0-6 in their last 6 games overall while the Giants are 7-1 in their last 8 home games. The Diamondbacks are 21-48 in the last 69 meetings in San Francisco. Bet the Giants.

Rob Vinciletti

Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Texas Rangers

Texas fits a nice dog system that pertains to certain teams at home off a big home favored win. Texas has Lefty Holland, making the start and he has been solid thus far with a 2-0 2.86 record vs the Twins. The Rangers have been very profitable in this range as a dog the past few years. The Twins counter with S. Baker tonight. Baker is 2-2 with a 5.25 era vs the Rangers thus far. On Sunday we are fresh off the 3-0 Sweep.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on New York Mets +122

The Mets have struggled on the road this season, but I like their chances today against a Brewers club that has struggled at home. Wolf takes the hill for Milwaukee this afternoon, and I expect his struggles to continue. He has an ERA of 5.89 over his last 3 starts and the Mets are hitting a solid .269 against southpaw starters and scoring 4.6 runs per game. As a result, they are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter. Dickey is coming off an excellent outing, pitching a shutout against the Phillies. In 2 appearances against the Brewers last season, Dickey threw three shutout innings as a reliever. Expect the knuckleballer to keep the Brewers off balance today. Lastly, the Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, and I'll back them showing solid value here.

JIM FEIST

NEW YORK METS / MILWAUKEE BREWERS
TAKE: NEW YORK METS

The Mets came into Milwaukee sky high. They had not only just swept the mighty Phillies, but they had shut them out in three straight games. And, it looked like a promising start in Milwaukee too, as the Brewers were held scoreless through eight innings. However, the Mets were also without a run and lost the opener after allowing a two-run homerun in the bottom of the ninth inning. It was a rare home win for the Brewers who had just six home wins so far this season and owned the worst home record in baseball. The Brewers still own the worst record in baseball, but they have won two straight. The Brewers have a lousy pitching staff, last in the NL in WHIP and third from last in runs per game and ERA. The Mets lost Saturday 8-6 in a wild affair but I fully expect them to win here on Sunday. R.A Dickey is coming off a shutout win over the Phillies in which he gave up no earned runs over six innings while walking just three and striking out seven. Randy Wolf hasn't found the success he had in LA last year but hasn't been terrible. Wolf has been blasted in two of his last three games, allowing six earned runs to the Pirates and Phillies before shutting out the worst team in baseball, the Astros. Don't let that Astros game sway you on Wolf, he's really a sheep under that cover and the Mets will expose him here on Sunday. Take the Mets!!

Tom Freese

Seattle at Los Angeles

The Angles Joe Saunders has allowed 7 runs total in his 4 starts. Los Angeles is 7-0 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30. The Halos are 9-3 their last 12 games vs. righty starters and they are 62-29 in Game 3 of a series. Seattle starter Ian Snell is 1-4 in his 5 starts this year. The Mariners are 7-19 their last 26 road games. Seattle is 8-20 off a loss and they are 2-6 their last 8 road games vs. lefty starters. PLAY ON LOS ANGELES -

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +1.32 over SAN DIEGO

Both these pitchers are very similar in that they’re both having good years when they’re really just two very average hurlers. Livan Hernandez possesses smooth mechanics and plenty of durability. He changes speeds and mixes his pitches very well and he eats innings. Hernandez has allowed just 47 hits in 60 innings and induces a ton of ground balls. That should bode well here. Jon Garland is also an innings eater. He gets ahead in the count and challenges batters repeatedly with his sinking fastball. He’s always around the plate, so he doesn't give up many walks. However, he doesn't overpower anyone and despite his solid command, he surrenders way too many hits and a few too many homers. Also, Garland’s 86% strand is helping him sustain an ERA far below his 4.53 xERA. There’s a good chance one or both of these guys gets beat up today and while the Padres are having a better season than the Nats, one can’t argue that the visitor’s offense is far more dangerous. Now you throw in a tag of +1.32 and it’s also hard to argue where the value lies. The Nats are playing decent ball and rarely do they lose two in a row, as it’s happened only five times this season. Play: Washington +1.32 (Risking 2 units).

Pittsburgh +1.61 over ATLANTA

The Cardinals and the Braves continue to be the most overvalued teams in the majors and no matter how you break this one down the Pirates have a great chance to win. Kenshin Kawakami has surrendered six jacks in 28 IP this month. Kawakami has also allowed 55 hits in 49 innings for a BAA of .284. He almost always allows three, four or five runs every game out, which makes the Braves a huge risk laying lumber like this. The Braves are hot with nine wins in 10 games but that’s not going to continue much longer, as its offense leaves plenty to be desired and you can double that against southpaws. They’ll face a southpaw here in Paul Maholm. Current Braves batters are hitting just .194 against Maholm in 62 career AB’s and he’s been getting progressively sharper lately. He’s coming off a beauty in Cincinnati in which he did not allow a single run in seven full innings. He’s also been better on the road this season with an impressive 3.09 ERA. There’s also a good chance the Braves will rest some starters, as they await the Phillies for a matinee game tomorrow. Overlay. Play: Pittsburgh +1.61 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS

Cincinnati Reds -197

The Reds are playing some very good baseball as they lead the National League Central by two games over the Cardinals. The Cincinnati offense has really been slugging and they should continue to have success today against the Astro's struggling starting pitcher Felipe Paulino. Paulino who is 0-7 with a 5.08 ERA this season and he is 1-4 with an ERA of 5.51 in six career starts against Cincinnati. The Houston offensive woes continue as they are last in every major offensive category in the major leagues and I don't expect that to change today with Cincinnati's rookie pitcher Mike Leake on the mound today. Leake has been excellent this season posting a 4-0 record with an ERA of only 2.70 and I expect him to shut down the Astros once again. Play on Cincinnati.

Gill Alexander

STL (-115) vs CHC

A battle between two formidable starters. Here's the tale of the conventional stats tape: Wainwright has 9 quality starts in 10 outings this season. He has a 2.38ERA and 69-19 SO-BB ratio. Opponents are hitting just .209 against him. He ranks 2nd in the NL w a 0.99WHIP. Dempster has 7 quality starts in 10 outings this season. He has a 3.31ERA and a 65-22 SO-BB ratio. Opponents are hitting just .201 against him. He ranks 7th in the NL w a 1.03WHIP. So why the conviction on Wainwright in this matchup instead of playing another game on the slate? The answer simply lies in a greater exploration of the truth. Wainwright has the 3rd best FIP in all of MLB at 2.65. He has the 6th best xFIP at 3.24. Though he certainly has been the beneficiary of good fortune this season (.268 BABIP), all of these metrics point to a play on the Cardinals starter. Dempster not only has a 3.80 and 3.79 FIP and xFIP, respectively, but he has been the 11th most fortunate pitcher in all of baseball this season in posting those figures, indicating some regression to the .300 mean is certainly in store for this afternoon at Wrigley. By the way, Wainwright also has a 2.44ERA in his last 7 starts v ChC. I won't say getting Wainwright at this price is an automatic play, but when the analysis corroborates it, we owe it to ourselves to pull the trigger.

Sac Lawson

SDP (-140) vs WAS

I know this kind of line is tough to back, especially with the success that Livan has had so far this year. But if one thing is apparent, it's the fact that Livan is steadily falling back to earth as we speak. His last couple starts have been less-than stellar, and I really see that as a key indicator. The Nationals have pitched the guy like crazy so far this season, and it's only June (basically) and I guarantee Livan is ready for the All-Star break.

On that note, Livan is also one of the only pitchers on the planet that can honestly say he doesn't like pitching at Petco. The guy is 0-4 with a 6.85 ERA over the last three years there, and the Padres as a team have simply been a huge bother to the big guy.

On the other side, Garland has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this year. He seems to load the bases at least twice per game, and yet he's sustaining an ERA of around 2.0 this year. Garland is a guy that struggles early in games, but if you don't hit him by the third inning, you won't hit him at all. On top of that, home plate umpire Bob Davidson has already done a Jon Garland game this year, and Davidson is a guy that has shown a pretty massive zone this season. The game he did with Garland involved was no different, and it definitely favored Garland a great deal. Makes me think this game could be low scoring...

Which definitely favors the Padres. Time and time again we've seen this team squeak out wins by doing all the little things. They simply play hard, and find ways to win. Our home plate umpire favors Garland, as we saw in their meeting earlier this year, and Livan has a terrible history at Petco. Plus, we've got the better bullpen on our side... Good Deal! I know it's a lofty price, but regardless of what we're paying, San Diego is the club that wins this game today.