Scott Spreitzer
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
I'm playing the Rockies on Sunday. Clayton Kershaw has struggled, to say the least, at Coors Field. His ERA approaches 7 in five starts at this ballpark and I suspect he's in for another short outing today. The Rockies have ripped southpaws at home this season, scoring almost 6 rpg. Jhoulys Chacin has been hot for entire season, sans one start against the Nats. The 22-year old righthander has allowed just 11 earned runs and 35 base runners in 32 innings pitched, for a strong, 3.09 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. And Colorado has been outstanding at home long-term, going 57-26 in their last 83 outings.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
We’ll back the Twins at home tonight against a struggling Texas team that has now lost three straight. Texas can’t score right now, putting up a combined six runs in those three losses. And here they face a very good home team in Minnesota that is already 17-9 in their new ballpark. Scott Baker has had some tough luck recently, but after three straight games against the Yankees and Boston, he’ll face a struggling lineup tonight and we expect him to be on his game. Twins take it!
Craig Trapp
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds -1.5
Better than even money with this huge mismatch, thats just too hard to pass up. The last two days have seen the Reds with double digit offensive explosions. Not likely to stop the tide today with Paulino going for HOU. He is 0-7 with a 5 plus ERA. Even worse for him is HOU has only averaged a little over 2 runs scored in his starts. On the other side we have CIN best pitcher so far Leake is 4-0 with a sub 3 ERA. HOU has not beat CIN in first 5 head to head matchup and even worse they have not been close losing by two or more in every game. This one smells like another blowout as the super hot bats of the Reds carry them once again!
Black Widow
1* on San Diego Padres -140
It's hard to argue that Jon Garland has resurrected his career in San Diego. The righty is 6-2 with a 2.55 ERA this season, and 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 5 home starts this year. The Padres are 7-1 in Garland's last 8 starts overall. Livan Hernandez has also resurrected his career in Washington, but recent signs point to a big drop-off from Hernandez the rest of the way. Hernandez is 0-2 with a 4.67 ERA in his last 3 starts, giving up 7 earned runs and 16 base runners in 11 innings in road losses to both the Giants and Rockies. In two 2009 starts against San Diego, Hernandez went 0-2 giving up 10 earned runs and 20 base runners in 13 innings. The Nationals are 13-42 in their last 55 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Washington is just 2-8 in their last 10 games as an underdog. The Nationals are 0-6 in Hernandez's last 6 starts vs. National League West foes, including 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. San Diego. The Padres are 21-6 in their last 27 home meetings with Washington. Take San Diego on the Money Line.
Dave Price
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -104
The Keys: These two pitcher's just faced off against one another on May 19th with Kennedy coming out on top in a decisive 13-1 win, but with this game in San Francisco, I expect the tides to turn for Wellemeyer and the Giants. Wellemeyer has been solid at home (3-1, 3.38 ERA) where the Giants are currently rolling, having won 7 of their last 8 home games. The D-backs have lost 6 straight. They are just 17-39 in their last 56 road games and 21-48 in the last 69 meetings in San Francisco. Plus, they are only 1-4 in Kennedy's last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Look for the Giants to take care of business at home again today.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -114
The Cards have an excellent opportunity to win this series behind Wainwright (2.37 ERA, 0.986 WHIP) today. Wainwright has been one of the best road pitchers in baseball and the Cardinals are 20-7 in his last 27 road starts as a result. They are 4-0 in his last 4 road starts vs. the Cubs as well. It is also worth noting that the Cards are a perfect 8-0 in Wainwright's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record and 23-6 in his last 29 starts following a team loss in their previous game. When in the underdog role it has been best to stay away from Dempster as the Cubs are just 6-18 in his last 24 starts as an underdog. Plus, they are 0-7 in Dempster's last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. Take the Cards this afternoon.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on New York Mets +122
The Mets have struggled on the road this season, but I like their chances today against a Brewers club that has struggled at home. Wolf takes the hill for Milwaukee this afternoon, and I expect his struggles to continue. He has an ERA of 5.89 over his last 3 starts and the Mets are hitting a solid .269 against southpaw starters and scoring 4.6 runs per game. As a result, they are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter. Dickey is coming off an excellent outing, pitching a shutout against the Phillies. In 2 appearances against the Brewers last season, Dickey threw three shutout innings as a reliever. Expect the knuckleballer to keep the Brewers off balance today. Lastly, the Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, and I'll back them showing solid value here.
Info Plays
3* on Detroit Tigers -117
Reasons the Tigers win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 54%). This is a 38-9 ML System hitting 80.9% over the last 5 seasons.
2.) The Tigers have lost 4 straight games and we find it very hard to believe they are going to lose a fifth straight today vs. Oakland. Detroit has knocked around Dallas Braden before, and they'll do it again Sunday to put an end to this brief losing streak. Braden is 2-3 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts vs. Detroit. The Tigers are 19-4 against the money line in home games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Bet Detroit at home.
Stan Lisowski
Twins
Minnesota is 8-4 in this series with Texas. Rangers are 8-13 on the road with a .236 batting average while Minny has a stellar 16-9 record as a host, hitting almost .290. The Rangers have lost 7 of Holland’s last 10 starts.
Wunderdog
Baltimore at Toronto
Pick: Toronto -195
The Blue Jays go for the series sweep here and they should get it. Rick Romero goes for Toronto and he has been great this year. At home he's 3-1 with a 1.74 ERA. Yes, Jeremy Guthrie has also been good. But, this Jays team can hit. They are averaging 5.6 runs per game for the Jays at home this season (5.8 overall vs. RHP). And, they are 9-2 this season vs. AL pitchers with a 1.300 or better WHIP. Baltimore just doesn't have the bats to keep up here as they average only 3.5 runs per game. The Orioles are 7-24 on the season vs. AL opponents averaging 4.7 or fewer RPG. They are also just 3-17 this season after a game in which they scored under 3 runs. Toronto gets the sweep.
GREG SHAKER
Washington Nats/SD Padres Under 7
Brief thoughts on this play and while there are other reasons to play it, I am not up to the task of telling you. The facts are that we have two hurlers on the mound that are putting good seasons together, Garland Especially is answering a lot of critics this year. A surprising Nats Pen that continues to get better and better and currently heaving an ERA of Under 2.4 Runs over the last 10 games. A Pad Pen that is one of the best in the Biz. And let's not forget this park call Petco which is the Best pitcher's Venue in either league. I play Totals to at least Push and seeing 8 runs here seems like a Tall Mountain to climb.
Baltimore Orioles/Toronto Blujays Under 8
WHIP IT!! We can detect it, and it is 0.77 for Romero here at this park in Toronto. Romero gave up seven runs and 11 hits, tying career worsts, over 5 1-3 innings in an 8-3 road loss to the Angels on Tuesday. Romero, a Los Angeles native, played in front of about 200 friends and family members. Can you spell Bounceback? Obviuosly a bit of preasure last time out for this guy but his numbers are spiffy for sure. Guthrie is WHIP-ing as well, down to the 1.12 level after putting some amazing numbers over his last 4 thrown and he has thrown well here at Rogers Centre. Good Home Bullpen Numbers for Toronto and Poor Scoring Numbers for Baltimore outside of Maryland. They have managed just 2 runs over 2 games here this weekend and they are now 18-9 UNDER when staying in hotels. Nice situation here and My MLB Totals Model agrees with at or UNDER 8 57.9% of the time. That's good enough for me.