SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Arizona (5-3) at L.A. Dodgers (3-5)
The Diamondbacks trot out ace Dan Haren (1-1, 3.95 ERA) for the third time already this season, this time at Dodger Stadium for a clash against the division-rival Dodgers and Hiroki Kuroda (1-0, 0.00 ERA).
The Dodgers powered their way to a 9-5 series-opening win Monday, but Arizona even the series with a 9-7, 11-inning victory Wednesday. Los Angeles is still 6-2 in its last eight at home, 73-35 in its last 108 as a home chalk and 8-1 in its last nine Thursday contests.
Arizona, which started the season with a 4-2 homestand, is still just 9-22 in its last 31 road games, including 6-17 on the road against right-handed starters. Also, it has lost five of eight to N.L. West squads.
The Dodgers won 11 of the 18 meetings with Arizona last season, and going back to 2008, they are on a 17-8 roll in this rivalry, going 12-4 in the last 16 clashes at Dodger Stadium.
Haren shut down the Padres on opening day, allowing one run on three hits over seven innings of a 6-3 win, but he was battered around by the Pirates on Saturday, giving up six runs (five earned) in 6 2/3 innings of a 6-3 home loss. Behind Haren, Arizona is on rolls of 6-2 on Thursday and 7-2 when he pitches the third game of a series, but they are just 1-5 in his last six roadies and 1-4 in his last five as a pup.
Against the Dodgers, Haren is 4-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 10 career starts spanning 62 2/3 innings. He saw them four times in 2009 and allowed three runs of less in each outing, but Arizona split the four contests.
Kuroda had a superb outing in Florida on Friday, allowing one unearned run on five hits over eight innings, striking out seven in a 7-3 victory. With the right-hander on the hill, Los Angeles is on surges of 9-4 overall, 4-1 at home, 8-3 as a favorite and 7-1 against teams with a winning record
Kuroda is 1-3 with a 3.90 ERA in six career starts against Arizona, and he faced the D’Backs twice last season, allowing a combined three runs on six hits in 10 innings of work, but the Dodgers lost both outings, 3-2 at home and 4-3 in Arizona.
Arizona is on several “over” streaks, including 5-0 overall, 6-1 on Thursdays, 4-0 in Haren’s last four overall and 9-4-1 in his last 14 road starts. The Dodgers are on “over” runs of 21-8-2 overall, 8-3-1 at home, 7-1 in the third game of a series, 17-5-1 against teams with a winning record and 9-3-1 against N.L. West foes. However, with Kuroda on the bump, L.A. carries “under” streaks of 5-1 at home and 6-2 against N.L. West teams.
In this rivalry, the under has been the play in five of nine overall and three of six when Haren is on the hill. However, the first two games of this series have easily cleared the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (3-6) at N.Y. Yankees (5-3)
The Angels conclude a three-game series at Yankee Stadium when they send left-hander Scott Kazmir (2-2, 1.73 ERA with the Angels last season) to the hill for the first time this season opposite Philip Hughes (8-3, 3.03 ERA in 2009), who is also making his first start of the young campaign.
Los Angeles scored a 5-3 victory on Wednesday after losing the series opener 7-5 Tuesday afternoon. It was just the Angels’ second win since opening day and stopped a three-game New York winning streak. The Halos also ended their five-game losing streak at Yankee Stadium, and they remain just 3-7 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including last October’s American League Championship Series that New York won in six games.
The Angels are still on slides of 2-6 overall, 1-4 on the road, 1-4 as a road ‘dog and 2-5 against winning teams, but they are on positive runs of 36-17 on Thursdays and 46-17 in the third game of a series. New York is on positive swings of 57-24 overall, 42-11 at home, 40-12 as a home favorite, 7-3 against A.L. West teams, 39-17 against southpaws, 72-32 in the third game of a series.
Kazmir was acquired from Tampa Bay at last year’s trade deadline and made six regular-season starts with the Angels, yielding two runs or fewer in five of the outings. The veteran is 6-5 with a 2.67 ERA in 14 career starts against New York, 12 of which came in a Tampa Bay uniform. However, that doesn’t include a start in Game 4 of the ALCS last year, when Kazmir got drilled for four runs on six hits in just four innings of a 10-1 loss in Anaheim. Prior to that, Kazmir had held the Yankees to three earned runs or less in nine consecutive starts.
Hughes pitched in the set-up relief role for the final five months of the regular and postseason last year, with his last start coming on May 31 in Cleveland when he gave up four runs on five hits in five innings of a 5-4 loss to the Indians. The right-hander has faced the Angels four times (one start), going 2-0 with a 5.23 ERA as he’s surrendered seven runs (six earned) on seven hits in 10 1/3 innings of work. His lone start against Los Angeles was in 2007 and he allowed five runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings, walking five in the 7-6 loss.
Los Angeles is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 35-18-3 overall, 17-5 on the road, 20-9-2 against right-handed starters and 6-2 in Kazmir’s last eight outings. The Yankees have soared “over” the total in 12 of 17 overall, seven of eight as a favorite, four straight against southpaws and 18 of 26 on Thursday, but they are on “under” runs of 11-2-1 at home, 35-16-3 as a home favorite and 3-1-2 in Hughes’ last six home starts.
In this rivalry, the “under” is 5-1 in the last six clashes in the Big Apple.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
DUNKEL INDEX
Arizona at LA Dodgers
The Diamondbacks look to build on their 5-1 record in Dan Haren's last 6 starts against teams with a losing record. Arizona is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100)
Game 901-902: Houston at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 13.936; St. Louis (Lohse) 14.744
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-230); Over
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.362; Cubs (Zambrano) 14.017
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-180); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+160); N/A
Game 905-906: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Olsen) 14.386; Philadelphia (Happ) 16.203
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-240); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-240); Over
Game 907-908: NY Mets at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.091; Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.745
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+180); Under
Game 909-910: Atlanta at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.179; San Diego (Latos) 14.556
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-135); Over
Game 911-912: Cincinnati at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 15.120; Florida (Johnson) 16.180
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-150); Over
Game 913-914: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 16.358; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.667
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); Under
Game 915-916: Texas at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 14.901; Cleveland (Huff) 14.774
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 917-918: Boston at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 16.312; Minnesota (Liriano) 15.963
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Over
Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Garcia) 16.305; Toronto (Eveland) 15.197
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+110); Under
Game 921-922: LA Angels at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Kazmir) 15.450; NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.989
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-180); Under
Game 923-924: Baltimore at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hernandez) 13.659; Oakland (Sheets) 15.570
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-150); Under
NHL
Boston at Buffalo
The Bruins look to build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 road games. Boston is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+150)
Game 59-60: Montreal at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.646; Washington 11.918
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-275); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-275); Over
Game 61-62: Boston at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.393; Buffalo 11.865
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-170); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+150); Under
Game 63-64: Los Angeles at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.412; Vancouver 10.944
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+170); Under
Marc Lawrence
Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Boston concludes its four game visit to the Target Center in Minnesota when they send Tim Wakefield to the mound against Francisco Liriano this afternoon. When Wakefield toes the mound he will do so knowing he's cashed in four of his last six starts in Minneapolis while Liriano 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA in his career team starts against the Bosox. With that, look for Liriano to drop to 2-8 in his career starts in April today.
Steve Merril
Nationals vs. Phillies
Play: Over 9.5
For the fifth time this season, a slugfest broke out between the Nationals and Phillies on Wednesday night. These two wrap up their series on Thursday afternoon as Scott Olsen gets his chance to try and slow down the Phillies lineup. However, Olsen is 5-6 with a 5.29 ERA and a WHIP of 1.69 against them. Last year, Olsen gave up 7 runs in 10.7 innings against Philadelphia. The Phillies hit .310 against him with Ryan Howard (14-29), Jayson Werth (10-19) and Raul Ibanez (5-8) all doing the best. J.A. Happ threw five solid innings against the Astros earlier this season, but the Nationals represent a huge step-up in talent. Washington has gone Over in two straight and in six of their eight games. Happ has made one start against the Nationals going just 5.3 innings giving up three hits and three runs in a 5-4 home win. With these two teams a combined 12-4 to the Over this season, we expect another high-scoring game this afternoon.
Cajun Sports
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
The Cubs will be seeking a sweep of the Brewers on Thursday afternoon in Game Three of the series at Wrigley Field with the first pitch scheduled for 2:20PM EST. Chicago will send Carlos Zambrano to the bump with his 1-1 record and ERA of 11.38. Zambrano got shelled in his first outing of the season against the Braves losing 16 to 5. In that start Carlos only managed to go 1.3 innings giving up eight earned runs on six hits and two homeruns. He was able to bounce back in his second start versus Cincinnati winning 4 to 3 giving up six hits and a homerun over seven innings of work. The Brewers will hang their hopes of a win on Jeff Suppan who will be making his first start of the season although he has worked one inning not giving up any hits, walks or runs. The Brewers appear to have a slight edge when facing right-handed starters averaging 5.0 runs per game with a batting average of .275 while the Cubs are only averaging 3.0 runs per game with a batting average of .197 so far this season. Milwaukee’s bullpen also has the edge with an ERA of 3.80 compared to Chicago’s 6.30. A check of the database reveals a league-wide system that tells us to play ON NL underdogs in this price range who have allowed 5.3 or more runs per game versus a team that has been outscored by .5 or more runs per game. These underdogs have posted a record of 35-20 the last five seasons for 63.6 percent winners and a profit of 30.1 units. We have another system that says to play ON NL road teams with an overall batting average of .255 or less facing a team whose bullpen has an ERA of 5.00 or worse, with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season. These road teams have posted a record of 110-74 for 59.8 percent winners and a profit of 44.5 units. The Brewers are a perfect 5-0 as road underdogs in this price range their last five times to post and 8-1 their last nine Game Three’s of a series. We will back the Brewers here as they surprise the Cubs and halt the sweep on Thursday afternoon at Wrigley Field in the Second City.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Milwaukee Brewers 4 Chicago Cubs 3
BIG AL
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
In this afternoon game, southpaw J.A. Happ will take on Washington's lefty, Scott Olsen. In his career, Happ has dominated the Nationals, going 3-0 with a 2.19 ERA. In contrast, Olsen has struggled in his career vs. Philly. In 13 games, he has a 5.29 ERA, and has given up 79 hits in just 64 2-3 innings pitched! Happ also comes into this game off a super effort to open the 2010 campaign. In his first start, an 8-0 win at Houston, he threw five scoreless innings, and gave up just two walks and six hits, with five strikeouts. Philly has won its last five games, including yesterday's 14-7 blowout. It also pounded its only other lefty starting opposing pitcher (John Lannan) for an 11-1 win on Opening Day. I won't step in front of this team right now. Take the Phillies.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Montreal Canadians @ Washington
PICK: Washington -1.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the Capitals are going to win this game handily:
Washington locked up the No. 1 Eastern Conference spot a couple of weeks ago behind the leagues best offense.
Seven of its forwards scored 21 or more goals.
Montreal on the other hand scored a league-worst 132 goals at even strength and not one of its forwards scored more than 28; its leading scorer is Tomas Plekanec with 70 points (which would have just been 5th if he played for Washington).
The only advantage that Montreal could have in this series is in goal; Jaroslav Halak seized the starting job from Carey Price and enters the playoffs with a .924 save percentage; Jose Theordore's numbers on the other hand were quite pedestrian on the year; however they improved dramatically since mid-January (20-0-3, 2.58, .922).
Bottom line: After yesterday's upsets, I expect the Capitals to come out with a concerted effort in this one and do what they've done all year long; suffocate the Habs with their incessant attack; lay the 1.5.
Jim Feist
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Play Under 7½
Dodger stadium is a great pitcher's park with that expansive outfield. A pair of talented pitchers take the hill, too, and one is an ace. Arizona righty Dan Haren is terrific when healthy, and he has 13 Ks and only 2 walks in 13 innings this season. This is not a strong Arizona offense, however, hitting for him. They face a Dodger righty in veteran Hiroki Kuroda who knows the value of throwing strikes, with 1 walk and 7 Ks in 8 innings. He has a 22-7 strikeout to walk ratio the last three years against the Diamondbacks. Looks like a defensive duel in Chavez Ravine! Play the Diamondbacks/Dodgers Under the total.
Steve Janus
1* on Boston/Minnesota OVER 9
Play the over in this match up with two teams that should finish near the top of the American League in team offense this season. Red Sox Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is inconsistent at best and while he has decent numbers against the majority of this Minnesota lineup, both Joe Mauer (5 for 12) and Justin Morneau (6 for 16) have hit him hard in their careers and those two are the primary offensive powers on the Twins. Fransisco Liriano looked to be back on the right track with a strong spring, but his first start of the season wasn't very impressive. He only gave up 3 runs in 6 innings, but the most concerning numbers in the boxscore are the 5 walks he allowed. Boston has absolutely owned Liriano the previous two times he's faced them. Francisco is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.37 WHIP against the BoSox. Play the over with both teams averaging around 5 runs per game and a pair of suspect pitchers on the mound.
EZWINNERS
Boston Red Sox +111
Twins lefty starting pitcher Francisco Liriano wasn't terrible in his first start of the season on Friday but he was on the hook for the loss until Minnesota came back in the seventh inning to tie the game against the White Sox. Liriano gave up three runs on four hits against the White Sox, but he did have control problems as he issued five walks and went to multiple full counts against batters. I expect him to get into trouble in this start against Boston. Liriano has had no success against the Red Sox as he is 0-2 with an ERA of 13.50 in two starts against Boston. The Red Sox send the veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield to the mound for this start. Wakefield is 14-5 against the Twins in his career and he is coming off of a solid outing in his first start of this season. The Red Sox are 13-6 in Wakefield's last 19 starts against American League Central teams and I expect that success to continue. Play on Boston.
JR O'Donnell
VAN / LOS Over 5.5
The high powered 49-28 Vancouver Canucks host the 46-27 Los Kings and we note that both "net minders" finished the season struggling big time. The Canucks who prided themselves on D early in the season have allowed 3+ goals in 20 plus games after the Olympic break. The loss of All Star defenseman Mitchel who was a steady force for the Canucks went down and will hurt the Canucks. Lungo a flat out stud has not had the kind of year he wished for and has wavered down the stretch. On the flip side Kings net minder has had a horrible end to the season, a couple of quick goals tonight will have him reeling.This line at 5.5 tells you that the Over is the play!
VEGAS EXPERTS
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee find themselves as a big favorite today in Wrigley Field against the Cubs after losing the first two games, but we think the payout is worth the risk here. Chicago will start Zambrano, who was hit hard in his first two starts, allowing 11 runs on 12 hits in just 10 1/3 innings of work. The Brewers counter with Jeff Suppan, who has a lifetime 3.63 ERA against the Cubs, and he shut down Chicago in each of his last two starts this year, allowing one run in seven innings both in September and July of last year. We’ll take a +160 payout on a 50-50 chance!
Play on: Milwaukee Brewers
Matt Fargo
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres
After pounding the Braves Tuesday, San Diego scored just one run Wednesday after plating 17 the prior day. This is the type of season it is expected to be in San Diego as the offense, which was horrible last season, will be inconsistent again this season. The Padres have been hot and cold and that has been the difference between winning and losing. They are 3-0 when scoring five runs or more and 0-5 when scoring three runs or fewer. With Tim Hudson on the hill, many will predict the latter but that may not be the case. Hudson was exceptional in his first start this season, holding the Giants to just two runs in seven innings. The jury is out on whether he can maintain that however. Hudson had a solid spring and is coming into the season healthy for the first time in a long time but his best days are clearly behind him. He definitely givers the Braves a good option in the bottom of the rotation but the fact that he is the fourth starter tells us that he is not the ace he used to be. It is the Braves offense that is the real issue however. They are hitting just .229 on the year which is near the bottom in the Majors and I really do not see them breaking out here against who many are calling an unknown Padres pitcher. They send Mat Latos to the mound who had a decent rookie season last year. He allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his 10 starts after his July call up and if not for the blowups, his numbers would have been excellent. He had an off start to begin the season as he allowed four runs in six innings against the Rockies but he still only allowed seven hits and no walks so all-in-all it was not that bad of an outing. Two of his best starts last season came against the Braves as both were quality performances and in those two games he posted a 1.29 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and .174 BAA. 3* San Diego Padres
Sean Higgs
Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Baltimore Orioles
Hard to pull the trigger on a team in a tail-spin, plus making a cross country flight. Ben Sheets has not impressed in his first 2 starts. Young O's bats will wake up and start to match their solid pitching.
Tom Freese
Diamondbacks at Dodgers
Prediction: Under
We like a low scoring game tonight in Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 5-1 UNDER in the last 6 starts made by Hiroki Kuroda. The righthander allowed just one run in his first start this year. The Dodgers are are 14-6 UNDER the last 20 starts mace by Kuroda vs. winning teams. He is also 6-2 UNDER vs. AL West teams. Arizona starter Dan Haren is one of the best pitchers in MLB. Haren is 13-6-1 UNDER his last 20 starts after allowing 5 or more runs in his last start. The Diamondbacks are 8-3 UNDER their last 11 road games vs. righty starters. These teams are 11-4-3 UNDER their last 18 meetings. PLAY ON 'UNDER'