Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Oakland A's -149
Off back-to-back defeats for the first time this season, look for the A's to bounce back strong at home against a team they have dominated. Over the last 3 seasons, the A's are 10-1 against Baltimore, including 6-0 at home. Looking back further, the Orioles are 17-50 in the last 67 meetings and only 8-24 in the last 32 meetings in Oakland. Baltimore enters this contest having lost 6 in a row and things won't get any easier playing on the West Coast, especially with Hernandez on the hill. In fact, the Orioles are 3-13 in Hernandez's last 16 starts and 0-5 in his last 5 road starts. In addition, the Athletics are 14-3 in their last 17 games as a home favorite and we'll take them in that role tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA –1½ -1.10 over Washington
The Phillies offense is tearing it up and every ball thrown has been hit harder than the previous one. The Nats can’t get out of Philly quick enough and will do so after today. My putting in Scott Olsen, they’re practically conceding this one. The Nats team ERA is over 7.00 and that’s a result of playing in Philly against this offensive power and we don’t see anything to recommend not going against Olsen in his first MLB start since labrum surgery last July. Olsen tossed just 62 frames last season and was absolutely crushed to the tune of 83 hits in 62 innings for a BAA of .320 and a WHIP of 1.72. This past spring that batting practice continued, as he allowed 35 hits in 18 innings and why the Nats would throw him into the fire here is a mystery. Injuries have destroyed this guy, his confidence is shot and this isn’t the place he’s going to regain anything. J.A. Happ may give up something but it’s likely not going to matter. This run support, Olsen starting and Nationals bottom-feeding NL offense is reason enough to lay the runs. Play: Philadelphia –1½ -1.10 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Baltimore +1.38 over OAKLAND (1st 5 innings)
Due to the O’s flammable pen it only makes sense to leave said pen out of this equation, especially since this choice is largely based on going against Ben Sheets. After a lost ’09 due to injury and a terrible March, Sheets has shown few signs of rebounding in his first two outings (11 IP, 7 BB, 4 K, 6.73 xERA). The O’s are off to a terrible start but perhaps the best thing for them is get out of Baltimore and regroup. The A’s offense is really a work in progress and after a decent start that offense has slowed down dramatically to the tune of a .181 batting average over its last five games. David Hernandez is coming off a good spring which saw his minor league dominance resurface. He threw 15 spring innings, struck out 20 batters while walking just three. Hernandez also pitched reasonably well in his season debut against the Blue Jays in which he went six full and allowed just six hits and two earned runs. This park is one he should benefit in because if its ability to keep balls inside the park. Laying this much juice with Sheets and the A’s is one of the more unappealing propositions of the young season thus far. Play: Baltimore in the first five innings +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
Sac Lawson
BOS (+105) vs MIN
I'm going to be brief here.. because to me this is merely a value play. The Minnesota guys have had trouble hitting Wakefield over the last few years, and although weather in this new ballpark will be an issue for a Knuckler, I still expect a solid outing. On the other side, Liriano looks to be falling back into those bad habbits from last year that caused him to lose most of his command. He was less than sharp his first time out, and against a more intimidating roster like Boston, it'll be interesting to see how he keeps his walks in check, my inclination is to assume he won't.
Minnesota's bullpen has been absolutely money all season, thus far, and we can't discount that. But I truly think Boston wins this matchup more than 50% of the time, meaning that plus money is HUGE value. Fully realize the home field respect given to Minnesota in this line, but quite frankly these guys are new to this park as well! Let's take the better starter at this plus money line in a situation where I'm not too sure home field has as much of an impact as oddsmakers are saying. 1 Unit Boston!
SDP / ATL Under 7
Little bit of a coastal breeze in the forecast at Petco today. This time of the year we still see the California branch of the Aleutian Current taking command over the San Diego area, and that means wind will be blowing in today at Petco. What does that mean? Not a whole lot, Petco is a pitchers park as it is, but the 5-15 MPH gusts we'll see can only help us here! As for the nuts n bolts..
Hudson looked absolutely fantastic in his first start, there's no denying that, and there's no denying the success he's had against the Padres in his career. A big factor for me here is the fact that, aside from Adrian Gonzalez, the entire Padres roster has pretty much never seen Tim Hudson. It's crazy to say with how long the guy has been in the league, but it's true. Fact is, it's always harder to face a guy the first time. I expect another sound outing from Hudson, and at least 7 innings of work. He hit 7 innings in his first start with only 77 pitches, now that's phenomenal. They'll up his pitch count today, so even if he isn't as sharp, his contact pitching should still send him through the 7th.
On the other side.. Matt Latos is a guy that I'm huge on. I spoke to the GM of the Eugene Emeralds last summer when Latos was called up to the bigs (Latos played in Eugene a few years back), and asked him what he thought about the youngster.. He told me it was the best pitcher he's ever had. And I see it. Latos is a guy that was purely a strikeout pitcher in his early days, and has more and more learned to pitch to contact. In his first start that was a little bit of an issue, because those contact pitches were just flying out of the park. But that's all about playing at Coors Field. I really expect this kid to continue to improve, continue to use that nasty changeup to get strikeouts, and use that large park in San Diego to his advantage.
I really think we've got a masterful matchup with these two starters and I see both giving up very little. The San Diego pen has been pretty sound all season long, and the Braves pen should only be responsible for a couple innings. I know 7 is a low number, but I like it. Under for 1 unit!
Larry Ness
ATL (-120) vs SDP
Tim Hudson faced Tommy John surgery and returned to the Atlanta rotation late last year, making seven starts. He's 34 but one must conclude that the Braves are optimistic about his ability to regain his All-Star form, as they gave him a $28 million, three-year contract in November. "He's got a new arm," manager Bobby Cox said. It's often reported that pitchers can come back stronger after Tommy John surgery. Hudson looked fine in his first outing of 2010, allowing two ERs on on three hits over seven innings last Friday as the Braves fell to San Francisco 5-4 in extra innings. Let's not forget that Hudson is an impressive 148-78 (.655) in his career, posting a 3.48 ERA. He's 3-0 with a 4.29 ERA vs the Padres in six career starts (teams are 5-1). The Padres look to rebound from last night's 6-1 loss to the Braves (left 10 men on base last night, after pounding out 19 hits in Monday's 17-2 win) with Mat Latos on the mound. Latos was 4-5 with a 4.62 ERA in 10 starts last year and needs to rebound after struggling in his season debut this past Saturday. He allowed four ERs and seven hits (including a three HR) over six innings of a 5-4, 14-inning win over Colorado. I'm taking the Braves.
Dan Bebe
LOS (-125) vs ARI
Most folks, this early in the season, are going to be irreconcilably drawn to Dan Haren.
I'm here to tell you that Dan Haren doesn't like the Dodgers. Considering his star-studded numbers, Haren's 4-4 career mark against LA has been spotted with some very ugly outings against this division rival.
Garret Anderson, Casey Blake, Andre Ethier, Manny Ramirez, and Matt Kemp all have beefy numbers against Haren throughout each of their careers, highlighted by ManRam's .577 average against Haren since 2005, including 3 homers and 6 RBI. Yes, Haren might wiggle his way through the Dodgers lineup, but even if he succeeds in limiting the damage, I don't expect him to go that deep in the ballgame.
The Dodgers definitely want to win this series, as they've started the year very slowly, and the pitching hasn't really been there. But Jonathon Broxton is back, and we know the kind of damage the big kid can do at home, so if the Dodgers can get the lead to the late innings, they should be able to lock things down.
On the mound for LA is the Japanese righty Hiroki Kuroda, who, when healthy, is the definition of a gamer. He missed most of last year after taking a line drive off the head, then never quite getting right physically, but he battles, has great command and outstanding movement on his pitches. No one on the current Arizona roster has had much success against Kuroda, and while the D'backs can definitely hit, Kuroda is just the type of pitcher to find ways out of trouble.
I believe there's a very good reason the Dodgers are favorites over one of the best pitchers in baseball, and that's because they should be.
Play on LA to take this one by a final score of 5-3.
John Ryan
LAA Angels vs. New York Yankees
Play: LAA Angels
3* graded play on the Anaheim Angels as they take on the NYY set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Anaheim will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-15 making 25.8 units in profits since 2004. The average play has been a dog of +136, which nearly matches the line for this game. Play against all favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 and is an excellent fielding team from last season that averaged <=0.5 errors/game and after 2 straight games this season where they committed no errors. Kazmir is an excellent starter and he is a solid 34-18 (+33.4 Units) against the money line versus AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Angels have been an excellent road dog posting a 21-14 (+16.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons. Yankee starter Hughes is a solid righthander with an above average curve ball. He MUST throw the curve for strikes to be successful. If he falls behind in the count he throws FB 82% of the time and when MLB hitters get to sit on a FB - it will get hit hard and often. Look for the Angels to be patient for at least the first time through and work favorable hitter counts. Take Anaheim.
Wunderdog Sports
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres +1.5
Tim Hudson was once amongst the top five pitchers in baseball. Last year he was limited to just seven starts with injuries, and the Braves managed to win just three of the seven, and have already lost his first start this season. The Braves were also just 12-11 in his 23 starts in '08, making them a sub-.500 team overall in the last three years. The Padres have been a .500 team with Latos on the mound as an underdog. Hudson's injuries have led to inconsistencies and after a quality start, the Braves are just 4-10 in his next start. The Padres have done an excellent job off a loss, where they are 16-5 in their last 21. I like San Diego here on the runline.
Hollywood Sports
Orioles at Athletics
Prediction: Over
Take the Over between the Baltimore Orioles and the Oakland A's. The Orioles' David Hernandez was 4-10 last season with a 5.42 ERA. What was particularly troubling with Hernandez's 2009 campaign was that he surrendered 27 gopher balls. And while Hernandez pitched well in his first start at home against Toronto where he surrendered just two runs on six hits, we worry about the four walks he issued over that span. On the flip side, why is Ben Sheets getting so much benefit of the doubt? He missed the entire 2009 season with a torn flexor tendon yet the A's signed him to a one-year, $10 million dollar contract. The Over/Under for this game opened at 8.5 -- a total usually reserved for top end starters. Sheets has a 4.09 ERA in his first two starts this year -- but he also has a high 1.91 WHIP while giving up seven bases-on-balls to just four strikeouts. In Spring Training, Sheets was 1-3 with a 11.59 ERA and a 2.50 WHIP. Maybe Sheets will return to his strong '08 form -- but he has shown nothing to suggest he is there yet. 8.5 as a total is just too low here -- take the Over.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -149
Bottom Line: The Marlins are worth a shot here when you consider that they are 34-15 in Johnson's last 49 starts, 15-5 in his last 20 home starts and 21-5 in his last 26 starts with 4 days of rest. In addition, the Reds are only 2-8 in Harang's last 10 starts, 3-9 in his last 12 starts as a road underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 starts with 4 days of rest. We'll back Johnson and the Fish Thursday.
Black Widow
1* on Orioles/A's OVER 8.5
Ben Sheets has not returned to his old self. It's clear by his 1.909 WHIP through 11 innings this season where he has given up 14 hits and 7 walks in two starts. Young David Hernandez goes for the Orioles, and he is one of the worst starters in the game today. He gave up 6 hits and 4 walks in six innings of his first start this season. Baltimore is 7-0 OVER (+7.2 Units) in road games after a loss by 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Oakland is 18-5 OVER (+12.9 Units) after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base over the last 3 seasons. Baltimore is 14-4 OVER (+10.1 Units) in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Look for both teams to get their bats going against two below average starters tonight. Take the OVER 8.5 runs.
Dave Price
1 Unit on LA Angels +1.5 -125
The Angels are worth a shot on the run line with Kazmir on the hill tonight when you consider that he has a brilliant 2.94 ERA in 15 career starts against the Yankees. I also like the fact that Kazmir has been strong against some of the best offenses in baseball. In fact, he is 34-18 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season in his career. Hughes has only made one start against the Angels and he was lit up in that game, allowing 5 earned runs. We'll take the Halos on the run line this evening.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels +156
Great value with the Angels as Thursday's free pick tonight. They take on the Yankees after winning in New York, 5-3, on Wednesday. I strongly feel the Angels have the edge on the mound here with Scott Kazmir over Phil Hughes. Kazmir is a former No. 1 starter who has the stuff to be the Ace of almost any staff. Kazmir has gone 6-6 with a 2.94 ERA in 15 career starts against the Yankees, becoming one of the most successful starters in the league when facing New York.
Phil Hughes barely made the rotation, and the only reason he did is because Joba Chamberlain was even worse than Hughes in spring training, and Hughes pitched terrible. In his only career start against the Angels, Hughes gave up 5 earned runs in a 6-7 loss to Los Angeles. The Angels are a solid 12-7 against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 3 seasons. The value here is too good to pass up. Take the Angels.
Info Plays
3* on Baltimore Orioles +142
Reasons why the orioles win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (OAKLAND) - where team's hitters strike out 6 or less times/game on the season, after two straight games where they had 5 or less hits. This is a 37-19 ML System hitting 66.1% since 1997 and gaining +29.9 units.
2.) Oakland should not be this heavily favored tonight. Ben Sheets is washed up, and he's given up 14 hits and 7 walks in just 11 innings of work in the early going for a monster 1.909 WHIP. That means he's giving up nearly 2 base runners per inning. Bet the Orioles on the road.
Stan Lisowski
ATLANTA
The Braves have won 7 of the last 11 meetings with the Padres in San Diego, while the visitor in the series has taken 7 of the last 10 matchups overall. With Hudson on the mound, Atlanta has won his 4 starts as a Brave against San Diego.