Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, April 17

DUNKEL INDEX

NHL

Chicago at St. Louis
The defending champion Blackhawks open their postseason series in St. Louis tonight against a Blues team that is 0-4 in its last 4 conference quarterfinals games. Chicago is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+115)

Game 57-58: Philadelphia at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.151; NY Rangers 12.598
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-150); Over

Game 59-60: Chicago at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.954; St. Louis 11.906
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+115); Under

Game 61-62: Minnesota at Colorado (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.239; Colorado 11.323
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+125); Under

Game 63-64: Los Angeles at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.653; San Jose 12.978
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-145); 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-145); Over

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

The Dodgers and Giants close out a three game series in San Francisco Thursday afternoon when Madison Bumgarner toes the slab for the hosts. While Bumgarner has gotten off to a stodgy start the fact of the matter is he is in strong command of his pitches with 20 strikeouts and 5 walks to start the season. Bumgarner is also 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts at home in this series. With that look for the lefty to improve to 12-1 in his last thirteen team starts during the month of April here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.

Art Aronson

Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -115

Despite winning yesterday, the Red Sox are reeling a little bit to start the season with injuries to key players and I think their free fall resumes on Thursday. Boston will send lefty John Lester (1-2, 2.57 ERA) to the hill for the second game of this three game set with Chicago. Lester has struggled versus the White Sox over his career with a rather pedestrian 4-5 record and 5.43 ERA. Chicago sends its ace Chris Sale (3-0, 2.66 ERA) to oppose the Red Sox; the lefty is coming off his worst start of the season to date as he gave up three earned runs in just five innings of work but still managed to get the win. Sale has never started a game against Boston in his career but has given up zero runs in 5 2/3 relief innings vs. it. He didn’t get the run support he deserved last season but this White Sox team has a few more potent bats in 2014 and they’ve come up big for him so far. The White Sox are still a strong 6-3 in home games and have won four of their last six overall. Boston meanwhile has lost four of six coming into this contest and is just 4-6 on the road. I think Sale is worth the price of admission in this one.

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Jim Feist

Red Sox vs. White Sox
Play: Under 7½

Chicago is a good pitchers park and what happens when these teams meet? 4-1-1 under in this park, plus White Sox are 6-0 under when they face AL East after the opener in this series, a 2-1 Chicago win. Boston had only 3 hits! An unimpressive Boston offense is in town, one that is hitting into double plays and not hitting extra base hits. Boston is 9-2 under on road, 13-4-1 run under overall. At least ace Jon Lester is going, 2.57 ERA, having a fine start and the team is 3-0 under the total in his three starts. The under is 15-5-2 in Lester's last 22 starts overall. Unfortunately for the Boston offense faces another ace in Chris Sale, with a 2.66 ERA and a 3-0 record. Don’t look for many hits or runs and the under is 5-1 when the White Sox face a left-handed starter.

Ray Monohan

Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -113

If you like lefties this is the game for you with Jon Lester going against Chris Sale. I like the chances of Sale as much for his ability as for the fact that the Pale Hose are absolutely raking to start the season with power all throughout the lineup. Sale can dominate as much anyone in the AL and is off to a hot start. He is also pitching deep into games too with two of his starts going 7+ innings. Great value with Boston coming to town.

Dennis Macklin

Yankees vs. Rays
Play: Over 7

Try as he might, C.C. Sabathia can barely break 90 on the juggs gun and it's shown over the past two years as he's been basically been throwing batting practice. His ERA is 6.63 in three starts this year, basically picking up right where he left off last year. His LT ERA vs the Rays is 3.78 in 34 starts and Tampa Bay has touched up the new svelte big man for 16 earned runs on 22 hits over 18+ innings the last three times they've faced him. David Price rocks a 3.66 LT ERA vs the Bombers with the over 13-6 in those starts. Unless both starters are razor sharp, this one should go flying over the total.

Rob Vinciletti

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +110

These two played a low scoring thriller last night with the Braves winning 1-0. The game was rare in that both teams had 2 or less runs scored and one team had 10+ hits anon had less than 4 or hits. When going to the database we see that since 2006, road teams like the Braves are on an 0-7 run if they are off a 1 run road win, while scoring 2 or less runs on 10+ hits, vs an opponent off a 1 run home loss and scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits. The Phillies are 12-2 at home off a home loss where they scored 2 or less and had 4 or less hits, and have won 4 of 6 in day games. They are averaging 5.7 runs and hitting .295 under the sun. They are also 7-1 of late in home games vs leftys. Atlanta is scoring 2.8 runs on .206 hitting in day games . The Phils have A.J. Burnett going and he has won 12 of his last 14 home starts in April. Atlanta counters with A. Wood who has allowed 5 earned runs in 10 innings here. We will back the Phillies for this matinee Play.

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Scott Spreitzer

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates -105

Yovani Gallardo will attempt to extend his run to extend his hot start to the season, but I doubt he'll get much help at the plate. Milwaukee has scored a grand total of just 17 runs in their last six games and the lack of scoring caught up with them in a series loss at home to the Cardinals. The Brewers swept the Pirates in a three-game series at Miller Park, but behind the pitching of Edinson Volquez I expect the Bucs to exact a little revenge on Thursday. Pittsburgh was shutout on Wednesday...no shocker there as the Reds with Johnny Cueto was our free release. But before yesterday, the Bucs had scored 5 runs or more in five of their previous eight games. Pittsburgh enters on a 43-18 run after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game and they're on a 7-2 run at home against the Brewers. I'm recommending a play on the Pirates on Thursday.

Nick Parsons

Los Angeles vs San Jose
Pick: San Jose Series

In 2011 San Jose would go on to beat LA in six games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals, while last year the Kings would prevail in seven games over the Sharks in the Western Conference semis.

San Jose had a great regular season in 2014, hitting the 50-win plateau for the first time since 2009. Keep your eyes on the home side’s Joe Pavelski who had a breakthrough season, leading the club in scoring, while teammate Joe Thornton was just behind.

I believe the goaltenders’ in this series (Antti Niemi, 2.40 GAA, .912 save percentage for the Sharks and Jonathan Quick, 2.05 GAA for the Kings), are a wash.

Three major factors are working in favor of the Sharks though and will ultimately prove to be the difference in my opinion.

First off, San Jose will be hungry to atone for last season’s Playoff loss to LA, five of the seven games were decided by just a single goal.

Secondly, home ice was crucial last year, the home team won each game, the Kings prevailing in the end.

And finally, the Sharks are a much deeper team this time around, getting massive production from both their veterans and younger players.

Consider a second look at San Jose to win this series.

DAVE COKIN

BOSTON RED SOX VS CHICAGO WHITE SOX
PLAY: CHICAGO WHITE SOX -116

The Red Sox managed to rally for a 6-4 extra inning win over the White Sox on Wednesday night. But this was anything but easy, and the plain truth is the Red Sox were very fortunate to win.

The Boston offense is asleep right now and they’re not exactly playing stellar defense, either. Two errors got the Chisox on the board early, and as for the Red Sox attack, it was pathetic last night. White Sox pitchers issued a whopping 15 walks, but no one on the Red Sox could get good wood on the ball for virtually the entire 14 innings. In the end, the Red Sox cuahg a massive break when the White Sox ran out of pitchers and had to turn to reserve utility man Leury Garcia.

It gets no easier for Boston tonight as they have to take on Chris Sale. The deceptive southpaw is throwing it very well once again this season. Jon Lester is also dealing to start the campaign, and he should be tough on the White Sox. But the edge here has to go to Sale. The offensive advantage also belongs to the Pale Hose, especially considering how tame the Red Sox bats are currently.

The fly in the ointment is if this is close late and ends up in the bullpen. I don’t think there’s a weaker relief corps in the majors than that owned by the White Sox. But with Sale on the mound against a reeling attack, I can only see the home team here, especially with the price being very reasonable. I’ll side with the White Sox win the series rubber match.

Brandon Shively

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -101

The Brewers are coming off a confidence building win yesterday vs. Saint Louis and will travel to Pittsburgh and have their ace, Gallardo, on the mound for the first game in this series. The Brewers just swept the Pirates last week and this is a rematch of the same pitching matchup. The Brewers won the game 3-2 as both pitchers tossed solid games. The difference was a RBI by Lucroy in the 8th after Ryan Braun had reached base on a single. Ryan Braun was given the day off yesterday to get him rested for this game. Braun is 11-for-31 career vs. Volquez. The current Brewers roster is hitting .259 vs. Volquez with a .427 SLG%. Volquez has a 4.74 career ERA vs. the Brew Crew and while he has only given up 2ER this season in 14 IP, I still have my doubts about this guy. Gallardo will take the mound for the Brewers with a 2.61 career ERA vs. the Pirates in 21 starts. Gallardo is off to a blazing start this season with a 1.07 WHIP in 3 starts. The Brewers are 8-2 over their last 10 games and are 6-0 on the road. The Brewers have 5 guys in their starting lineup hitting .300+ vs. Volquez. Look for them to get 4+runs across the plate and for the Brewers 2.50 team ERA to hold true in this one here tonight.

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Matt Fargo

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Brewers have gotten off to a great start this season as they are 11-4 which is the bet record in baseball. They had won nine straight before losing two games against the Cardinals but they were able to grab the series finale yesterday and now hit the road where they are a perfect 6-0 and that comes to an end here. The Pirates have been average at 7-8 including losses in five of their last six games but I expect them to rebound at home following a lengthy roadtrip. Pittsburgh sends Edinson Volquez to the hill and he is coming off a very impressive start to the season where he has allowed just two runs on seven hits in 12 innings and he did it in just 174 pitches so his command has been spot on. He has not lived up to his career potential and the Dodgers shipped him off last year which makes this his fifth team in five years which adds to our value here. The Brewers are off to great start and they hope Yovani Gallardo can keep it going and he has been nearly untouchable as he has allowed two runs in 18.2 innings through his first three starts. This is the time to go against that though and while he won the first meeting between these two, I expect a reversal here. The Pirates are 37-16 in their last 53 home games following a road trip of seven or more days.

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Jimmy Boyd

hiladelphia Phillies +120

The Phillies should not be an underdog at home against division rival Atlanta today. Philadelphia will send out veteran right-hander A.J. Burnett, who has a 3.35 ERA at home and 3.74 ERA in day games over the last 3 seasons. Burnett has struggled with command in the early stages of 2014, walking 14 batters in 16 innings. The Braves figure to help out Burnett in that department. Atlanta ranks 25th in the league with just 38 walks this season. Burnett is 16-7 in his last 23 starts as a home underdog.

The Braves will counter with lefty Alex Wood, who has pitched well in his first 3 starts. Wood is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA. However, in his last trip to Philadelphia, Wood was tagged with 4 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks over 4 and 2/3 innings. Philadelphia is 8-3 in their last 11 games versus a left-handed starter and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 against a lefty at home.

The Phillies managed just 3 hits and failed to score a single run in yesterday's 0-1 loss to Atlanta. That was only the second time in the last eight games where Philadelphia failed to score at least four runs. The Phillies are 11-4 in their last 15 revenging a shutout loss, while the Braves are a mere 1-5 in Wood's last 6 starts against an opponent that scored 2 runs or less last time out.

Alex Smart

Cleveland Indians vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Cleveland Indians +150

Verlander Motowns righty starter today is no longer the hurler he used to be. His fast ball has faded drastically over the last few years and the veteran thrower is vulnerable to being smacked around,as is evident by his teams 4-12 record in this L/16 trips to the hill. Also Cleveland has faired well against righties of late winning 6 straight vs orthodox starters. Considering the Tribes ability to win on the run ( 14-6 L/20 as visitors dating back to last season) they are very viable underdogs in this spot and must not be disrespected.

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