Dave Essler
Blue Jays / Twins Over 7.5
The vig varies and in some places it's still 8 and may go back there. I DNFC about the cold weather. that could effect Dickey's ability to grip the ball, and Gibson ought to give it up, too. I am also about to add Twins RL as well. I am playing them all after yesterday, when almost every lean won and the BS we had in the ones I added. Lineups are out and everyone (that I care about) is in. Cold weather effects fielding, too.
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta -½ +108 over PHILLY (5 innings)
The Braves went off for 11 hits yesterday against Cliff Lee but Lee’s 13 strikeouts and a key double-play prevented the Braves from scoring a bunch more. Prior to yesterday, Atlanta had scored six runs or more in four straight games and they have also won five straight. Current Braves have hit .309 against A.J. Burnett and that’s when he was throwing well. This year the problems for Burnett are endless. In 16 frames, Burnett has walked 14 batters and his 7% swinging strike rate is his lowest mark in his 12-year history. Burnett has a WHIP of 1.94 to go along with a BAA of .283 over his first three starts. In his only start at Citizens Bank Park this season, Burnett threw 106 pitches in 4.1 innings against the Marlins before being yanked after walking six and allowing two runs on five hits. Burnett has been able to maintain his high groundball rate over his first three starts, a skill that has enabled him to avoid the gopheritis that crippled him for long stretches. Keep in mind that Citizens Bank Park is much more HR-friendly than PNC Park and the Braves are second in the majors behind the Dodgers in going yard.
Alex Wood showed last season that he has an electric arsenal of high a groundball rate and a high strikeout rate. Early on in 2014, he is showing similar skills, which should answer any questions that lingered due to his poor September (4.89 xERA). In 19 innings, Wood has struck out 17, walked six and has posted a nifty 52%/20%/29% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. Wood already has a victory over both Milwaukee and Washington this season with his only loss coming against the Nationals six days prior to defeating them. In that defeat, Wood was the hard luck loser after he went seven innings and allowed just four hits and two runs. Wood has been able to continue to throw strikes and his command at the majors has been better than the minors. In addition, he's been a groundball machine. Wood is showing all the signs of a polished high draft pick with significant college experience and he’s now starting to dominate hitters at this level as well. Nothing in his profile raises any flags making Wood and the Braves a very worthwhile investment.
PITTSBURGH -1 +144 over Milwaukee
Yovani Gallardo is 2-0 in three starts with a 0.96 ERA and a WHIP of 1.07. In 19 starts, he’s walked just three while striking out 13. Those numbers combined with the Brewers hot start has Gallardo very overvalued here. Gallardo had a sub-4.00 ERA in four straight seasons before he regressed to a 4.18 ERA in 2013. Before you hope for this rebound to continue, note that his skills have fallen off a cliff during the last two seasons. Strikeout erosion last year escalated into a freefall, moving Gallardo from star-potential power pitcher to groundball-inducing, innings-eating workhorse. Poor control has long made him a WHIP-killer, now substandard command says 4.00 ERA was mostly deserved. Even a mild rebound would only make him average. Don't overreact to Gallardo’s strong start because his 7% swinging strike rate and a lucky 90% strand rate over his first three starts screams regression is about to take place.
Edinson Volquez has started the season with two pure quality efforts, something he did in just 25% of his starts last season. Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage has shown he has the ability to turn around careers, evidenced by Francisco Liriano, Charlie Morton and A.J. Burnett to name a few. Volquez' 5.71 ERA last season was nearly a run and a half higher than his xERA of 4.28. Control issues have long been a problem for him, yet he has only walked three in his first 14 innings this season. Volquez has always had nasty stuff but his inability to throw strikes has made him a huge risk over the years. If his first two starts is any indication of what’s in store for Volquez, he will have big profit potential and we’ll put that to the test here.
CHICAGO -½ +118 over Boston (5 innings)
Jon Lester has some nice surface stats to begin the season which include a 2.57 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and 20 K’s in 21 innings. While April stats can’t be completely ignored, they are a small sample size which helps to increase or decreases a pitcher’s true value. Even last season on the surface, Lester recovered nicely from his disastrous 2012, cutting his ERA by nearly one run. But a second look at his "recovery" cautions us to expect pre-'12 results. Most of Lester’s skills remain stagnant. His K rate didn't return to its previous elite levels and a look at his pedestrian swinging strike rate in '11 suggests we shouldn't have expected it to. Some of the strikeout rate loss was offset by lesser walks but his command remains uninspiring. Don't get too excited about Lester’s 2.89 ERA in the second half either, as it was driven primarily by a 78% strand rate and fluky 5% hr/f%, which he needed as his fly-balls rose from 32% to 39% in that span. In his three starts this season not much has changed in Lester’s under the hood stats. His swinging strike rate is at 8.9%, his strand rate is at an unsustainable 83% and it’s only a matter of time before some of those stranded base-runners start crossing the plate. This is an unforgiving park and Lester has had problems with the South Side over the past three years with a 5.87 ERA (5.12 xERA) and 2-3 record over five starts.
The loss of Mike Napoli for the Red Sox is a big one. The loss of Jacoby Ellsbury in the off-season is proving to be damaging as well. The Red Sox didn’t get better; they got older and worse with A.J. Pierzynski and Grady Sizemore and not much else. Already in six of their 15 games, Boston has scored two runs or fewer. Only three teams in the AL have a lower team batting average than the Red Sox (.236) and we can’t attribute it to a slow start because looking at this Boston lineup, we see lots of holes. Chris Sale should be able to avoid any threats in Boston’s lineup and dominate the rest of it. Sale has some of the nastiest stuff in the majors and he hasn’t come close to hitting his stride yet. Sale’s 77%/3% dominant start/disaster start split since the beginning of 2013 tells you all you need to know about how much he abused AL hitting. Bet confidently on Sale at a cheap price because he’s the straight goods that will be in the Cy Young discussion this season. The Red Sox are almost always over-bet and that’s absolutely the case here, providing us with solid value on a favorite.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago -106 over ST. LOUIS Series Bet
At the trade deadline, the Blues made a statement by trading for the Ryan Miller. He started off hot (sort of) but struggled down the stretch, losing his final five regular-season starts and giving up 18 goals in that span. Miller’s save percentage since he arrived in St. Louis is an unacceptable .903. That could change but some things never change and the Blues do not know how to win playoff series against teams that are equal or better than they are. Chicago does. Furthermore, the Blues' injuries to top possession players -- David Backes, T.J. Oshie, Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrik Berglund are among the injured for St. Louis and that will cause Miller to face more shots than he expected upon his arrival. We also can’t overlook the Blues finish to the season. No team wants to end the regular season the way St. Louis did with six straight losses. Psychologically it’s damaging. They Blues not only lost six straight to end the year, they were shut out three times and scored a measly seven goals while allowing 22.
The Blackhawks are raring to go and they know how to win a playoff series. They can also smell a wounded prey like no other. Both Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews are back. Chicago’s core of defensemen is the best in the business and it’s not close. Offensively, there are few teams as dangerous as the Blackhawks. They finished second in the NHL this season in goals per game. Chicago lost three of five games against St. Louis this season but make no mistake, even when the Blues were healthy and playing their best, Chicago outshot and out-chanced the Blues by a wide margin in four of the five games. St. Louis may get some bodies back as this series progresses but it’s going to be a case of too little too late. When teams limp into the playoffs in any sport, rarely do they recover to win important games in the post-season. Right now the Blues are a fragile hockey team that probably has many of their players suffering through a lot of sleepless nights recently. The Blackhawks are too good to allow a brittle team that chokes every year in the playoffs to dictate the way this series will go. Play Chicago confidently.
Philadelphia/N.Y. RANGERS Over 5
Well, if the first night of the Stanley Cup Playoffs was any indication of what’s in store then these totals of five must be played over. Philadelphia is very capable of scoring in spurts and they are also very capable of giving up a bunch of goals too. We also like that Ray Emery is starting for the Flyers because Steve Mason is out with an injury. Emery appeared in two of the Flyers last six games of the season and posted save percentages of .857 and .867. Philadelphia’s final six games resulted in scores of 5-2, 5-2, 5-2, 4-2, 4-3 and 6-5. That’s five goals or more by one team in five of the Flyers last six games. Two of those last six games were against Buffalo and Florida. Philadelphia is not going to win many 2-1 games. This is a team that creates a ton of scoring chances and allows just as many. Philadelphia's minus-18 even-strength goal differential is another revealing stat that says the Flyers give up too many chances. In fact, the Flyers are one of only two teams to make the postseason to have been outscored at even strength this season (Montreal is the other). Now the Flyers are forced to go with a back-up goaltender.
When the Flyers got off to that atrocious 1-7 start to the season it was because they weren't getting anything from their offense. Claude Giroux was so slow out of the gate that he missed the cut for the Canadian Olympic team. Since that time he has been on fire and the Flyers offense followed suit. They have scoring depth to challenge any team in the league, literally. They were the only squad in the NHL with seven 20-plus goal scorers on the roster, led by Wayne Simmonds' 29. They go three lines deep, almost equally deep. It was good enough to give them the eighth-ranked offense even with the atrocious start bringing down the numbers. The Flyers create well on the rush and they'll get their goals. If the Flyers can net two goals, a distinct possibility indeed, the Rangers will take care of the rest.
Chicago +103 over ST. LOUIS
GAME 1
See our series analysis for more details on this wager. As the series progresses, we'll likely have more individual games but for now, we're playing the Blackhawks in both the series and in the first game.
Michael Alexander
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -115
A pair of ace left-handers square off Thursday in Chicago when Jon Lester of the Boston Red Sox matches up against the White Sox's Chris Sale. Lester won his last start but remains desperate for run support after the Boston bats produced five total runs in his first three outings. However, it's not likely that the Red Sox offense will break through against Sale, who has won all three of his starts and has held current Boston players to three hits in 25 career at-bats.
Jack Jones
Brewers/Pirates Over 6½
The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates. They are overreacting to solid starts to the season by both of tonight's scheduled hurlers in Yovani Gallardo and Edinson Volquez.
Gallardo has opened 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA through three starts this season, while Volquez is 0-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his three starts. Impressive, indeed, but an aberration when you look at how these starters fared last year. They haven't magically become two of the best starters in the league in 2014.
It's amazing that Volquez was given the opportunity to start 32 games last season with how awful he was. The right-hander went 9-12 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in 2013 in his time between the Padres and Dodgers. Gallardo was better last year, but his 12-10 record with a 4.18 ERA and 1.362 WHIP are certainly nothing to be proud of.
The OVER is 21-10-2 in Gallardo's last 33 starts during Game 1 of a series. The OVER is 5-0-1 in Pirates last six games as a favorite. Milwaukee is 26-12 to the OVER in road games vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 runs per game or fewer over the last three seasons. Pittsburgh is 34-17 to the OVER vs. poor power teams that average 0.9 home runs per game or fewer over the last two years. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
Dave Price
Milwaukee Brewers -101
Milwaukee is showing value at this price on the road with Gallardo gripping the pill. The Brewers are 6-0 on the highway this season and have won 10 of 11 road games dating back to last season. Gallardo is in awesome form. The Brew Crew has won each of his first three starts while he's posted an ERA of 0.96. Gallardo is 11-3 with an ERA of 2.45 in 20 starts against the Pirates with the Beermakers going 16-4 in these games. The Brewers are 6-0 in his last six road starts dating back to last season. Take Milwaukee.
Steve Janus
Seattle Mariners +109
The Mariners let one get away last night, losing in the bottom of the 9th. Seattle must now win today to avoid getting swept by a division opponent and I expect them to do just that.
Both teams will send out a starter who has struggled. Seattle's Erasmo Ramirez is 1-2 with a 5.62 ERA over 3 starts, while the Rangers' Tanner Scheppers is 0-1 with a 7.87 ERA in 3 starts. I give Ramirez the edge in this one. He's coming off a solid start against Oakland, where he allowed just 3 runs over 5 innings. Ramirez also pitched extremely well in his lone start against Texas last year, limiting the Rangers to just 1 earned run on 4 hits over 7 innings of a 4-3 Mariners victory.
Road teams with a money line of -125 to +125 whose bullpen has an ERA of 3.33 on the season are 217-147 (60%) against the money line since 1997 after a game where they blew a save. Adding to this is the fact that Texas is just 14-22 in their last 36 games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less.
Heath Mac
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -110
The Dodgers have now lost four of their first five games this season against the Giants and are having a hard time hitting the Giants pitching. The Dodgers have just scored three combined runs in their first two games in this series, and Carl Crawford is 0-8 at the plate. Hyun-Jin Ryu will need another solid outing with the lineup struggling, as he’s 2-1 on the season with a 2.57 ERA and has 22 strikeouts in 21 innings pitched. Ryu has started six games against the Giants in his career, and he’s 2-3 with an ERA of 3.89.
The Giants have won four of their last five games and have taken an early lead for first place in the NL West. Brandon belt continues to tear the cover off the ball with a .300 batting average, and he has four hits in this series.
However, the Giants pitching that has allowed two or less runs in three of their last four games has been the real story. Madison Bumgarner has contributed to those numbers, as the Giants starter is 2-0 with a 3.31 ERA and has 20 strikeouts in 16.1 innings. Bumgarner has also dominated the Dodgers in his career, as he’s 9-3 with a 2.60 ERA in 12 starts against LA.
The Dodgers are 7-1 in Ryu's last 8 starts as an underdog and 15-7 in Ryu's last 22 starts. The Giants are 5-0 in Bumgarner's last 5 starts as a favorite and 27-12 in Bumgarner's last 39 starts as a home favorite. The Giants are 5-1 in Bumgarner's last 6 starts vs. Dodgers.
Why would you pick against the Giants at that price. San Fran has had the Dodgers number all season and now has one of its better pitchers on the mound, a pitcher who has won five of his last six starts against the Dodgers. The Dodgers for whatever reason can't hit the ball with a loaded lineup, and it doesn't help with the Giants pitching staff on point.
Sam Martin
St Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
We almost gave out St. Louis as a premium selection but we downgraded this play to a 5* Free Pick because we felt the line was a bit too high and missed out cut off for risk-reward line value. However, we do still think St. Louis wins this game tonight and we love the pitching edge the Cardinals have behind Wainwright.
Not only does Wainwright come in with a 1.29 ERA over two road starts - allowing just two earned runs over 14 innings - the real edge in this pitching matchup is WHIP, where Wainwright comes in allowing one baserunner per inning (1.000). Taylor Jordan has been far worse having a 1.765 WHIP - this after allowing five runs on ten hits and two walks in just five innings or work against Atlanta. St. Louis offense heating up averaging more than 10 hits per game over their last five, and they take advantage of this pitching mismatch with an easy win!
MLB Predictions
Royals / Astros Under 7.5
The first two games of this series have seen 6 and 10 runs scored, with the Royals winning each of those. The Astros will send their ace, Scott Feldman, to the mound as they look to avoid the sweep. The Astros are 2-1 when Feldman starts, with their only loss with him on the mound being a 1-0 loss vs Yu Darvish and the Rangers. Feldman is 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA, .106 and 0.73 WHIP. In 20.2 innings of work he has yet to give up a homerun and leads the league in opponents batting average. In 2013 Feldman was 12-12 with a 3.86 ERA, .234 OBA and 1.18 WHIP. He has 15 appearances and 8 starts vs Kanas City in his career with 66.1 innings pitched in total vs the Royals, and his numbers versus them are very solid. He is 4-2 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and has held them to a .233 batting average. Tonight's match up will be an Ace vs Ace match up, as James Shields is on the rubber for the Royals. Shields is 0-2 on the season but he has a 2.37 ERA, .219 OBA and 1.05 WHIP. In his last start he gave up 7 runs (but only 1 earned) in one rough inning, but pitched well other than that. Shields has 3 career starts vs the Astros and he has been lights out against them going 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA, .232 OBA and 1.00 WHIP. Not only do we have two very solid starting pitchers on the mound, but we've also got two teams struggling at the plate this year. The Royals rank 18th in team batting average hitting .243, while the Astros are last in the MLB at .189. The Royals are also 28th in MLB in team OPS at .639, while the Astros are 30th at .613. Take note that the UNDER is 5-2 in Shields' last 7 starts vs a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 6-0 in the Astros last 6 vs a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower, and 7-3 in their last 10 home games dating back to last season with a total set low between 7-8.5. I like the pitchers to have a night here in Houston, and I'll take the UNDER for 5 units.
NHL Predictions
Wild Series +120
This is an interesting play, as the Avalanche finished 1st in the Central division with 112 points while the Wild were a Wild Card team finishing the season with 98 points. The Avs also beat Minnesota in 4 of their 5 regular season meetings. While the Avs did win 4 of those 5 games they were out shot in every single meeting. The Avalanche were one of the worst puck control teams in the NHL this season, and relied heavily on goalie Semyon Varlamov. Varlamov has some playoff experience, but he hasn't been overly outstanding in postseason play. Over 19 NHL playoff games he has a .915 SV% and 2.49 GAA. The same can be said with Minnesota's starter, Ilya Bryzgalov, who holds a .908 SV% and 2.81 GAA in 38 career playoff games. So why do I like the Wild as underdogs here in Round 1? Minnesota is a more experienced team, and in my opinion has more depth then the Avalanche, who will be missing their top offensive weapon. Matt Duchene is out with an injury, and he lead the team with 70 points over 71 games played. The Avs will have to lean on the likes of Landeskog, O'Reilly, and Mackinnon for their offense - with the oldest of the three being 23 years old. The Avalanche last snuck into the playoffs in the 2009-2010 season (finishing 8th that year and losing in first round), and are coming off a year where the finished last in the Western Conference. Although Minnesota was bounced in 5 games to the eventual Stanley Cup Champions last year, they did gain some playoff experience from it that they can build on this year. The Wild have some older and experienced players like Parise, Koivu, Moulson and Pominville up front, and one of the best D-men in the game in Ryan Suter that will make things tough on the Avalanche. Duchene is the type of player that can help win a series, and the Avalanche will miss him vs Minnesota. This Colorado team will be dangerous in the West soon enough, and they proved that in the regular season, but I'll go with the experience of Minnesota to upset the Avs in 6.
Ian Cameron
Minnesota at Colorado
Play: Over 5
Minnesota and Colorado played each other five times during the regular season and three of those games had five goals or more. We saw all three playoff games last night fly over the total and I think this game has high scoring potential as well. I'll give credit to goalie Ilya Bryzgalov for playing unexpectedly well late in the season but his career has been marred by awful playoff performances and I'm not ready to trust him to shut down a very potent Colorado Avalanche squad that ranked 4th in the NHL in goals scored this season. On the flip side, Minnesota is no offensive juggernaut (24th in the NHL at 2.43 goals per game) but they did show an uptick in offensive production late in the season scoring 3+ goals in six of their last eight games. As mentioned we saw a loose type of hockey in all three Game 1's last night and I think this game sets up for a similar outcome as we jump in on over 5 goals at the small plus price.
Tony Stoffo
Red Sox at White Sox
Play: Red Sox
With Jon Lester matching up against Chris Sale makes for a sold release on Lester and the Red Sox tonight. Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Red Sox are 7-3 in Lesters last 10 starts vs. American League Central. White Sox are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter. White Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Boston the play here
The Prez
Rockies at Padres
Play: Under 7.5
The San Diego Padres exploded offensively on Wednesday night scoring a 4-2 victory over the Colorado Rockies. Yes, the first sentence said that the Pads bats exploded, and considering that San Diego is last in the National League with 44 runs scored and home runs per at bat 1:61. The Padres went 3-for-7 with runners in scoring position, the lineup's best season performance to date, and an occurrence that will likely be the norm for a current San Diego offense that doesn't figure to scare opposing pitchers, and even when the injured Carlos Quinton, Chase Headley and Cameron Maybin return this offense isn't going to put up many crooked numbers in any three-out frame
The likes of Everth Cabrera, Will Venable, Seth Smith, Xavier Nady, Yonder Alonso, Chris Denorfia, Tommy Medica and others are definitive unknowns if you ask the average sports fan what they have done in their career or even who they are for that matter.
Today's Pads starter, Ian Kennedy, is more likely to dilate the pupils of that same container of average fans when asked if asked the "who is" question about the San Diego roster. The former Yankee and Diamondback depends far too much on his changeup and while his primary pitch found success in his last start, it too came against a cold offense, the Detroit Tigers., a game that Kennedy and his teammates lost 6-2 in which the right-hander gave up four runs on eight hits over six innings of work. However, Kennedy is 3-3 with a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts against Colorado in his career, and 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA away from Coors Field.
The Padres batting stats against left-handed pitching is dismal, more so than their overall April digits, and they face southpaw Franklin Morales (0-1, 6.39 ERA) today at the "Pet".
Morales has slid into the rotation due to Brett Anderson's most recent ailment, a broken left index finger suffered during an at-bat Saturday, Morales last pitched Sunday throwing an inning of scoreless relief while walking one and striking out a pair at San Francisco.
The Under is 9-0 in Padres last 9 home games when the opposition starts a left-handed; 10-1 in Padres last 11 games as a home favorite when the oddsmakers open the money line between -110 to -150; 13-3 in Padres last 16 games as a home favorite; 21-5 in Padres last 26 home games and overall San Diego has cashed the Under at a 17-4 clip in their last 21 games versus left-handed starter.
The Under 31-15-5 in the Rockies last 51 road games against teams with an overall losing record and the Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between the two NL West foes.
Joe Gavazzi
San Diego Padres -130
We are right back on the Padres today, following our Top Play of the Day winner on them yesterday. That victory pushed the Padres mini-streak to 5-2 over which time starters have a 2.89 ERA. In fact, San Diego starters have allowed 3 or less runs in 7/8 recent games. Kennedy looks to join that group after working 6 innings, allowing 4 runs on 8 hits, in a 6-2 loss to Detroit. Chances are that will happen, as in 8 starts against Colorado, Kennedy has a 2.25 ERA. Always eager to fade the poor traveling Rockies. Again this season, Colorado stands 4-2 at home but just 3-7 on the road. Morales is not the answer. In 12 2/3 IP, Morales has allowed 23 BR, resulting in a 6.39 ERA. In 14 IP against San Diego, mostly in relief, Morales has a 6.28 ERA. Ride the San Diego hot streak, with the better pitching against the poor traveling Rockies.