Analytics Trading
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Pick: Seattle Mariners 1st Half
This FREE PLAY we look at a late morning game between Seattle and Texas. This will be a battle between starting pitchers who are both struggling and will be looking to get back on track with strong outings today.
Erasmo Ramirez (1-2, 5.63 ERA) is on the mound for the Mariners coming off two straight losses against the Oakland A's. Ramiriz will be hoping history repeats itself as he only allowed 1 earned run in his only other appearance vs the Rangers last August.
For the home crowd Tanner Scheppers (0-1, 7.88 ERA) takes the mound looking to get his first win this year after rough starts in his 3 previous games.
Our data shows a very strong play on MARINERS (+105) FIRST 5 INNINGS
Bruce Marshall
Flyers at Rangers
Pick: Over
The trendline was "over" in Wednesday's opening night Stanley Cup action, with all three games cruising "over" for the evening, as 23 total goals were scored in the three games. No surprise if we see some of the same tonight, especially considering how the Flyers enter the playoffs on a six-game "over" streak and with backup GK Ray Emery in the nets due to an injury to normal first-stringer Steve Mason. Emery was 9-12-2 with a 2.96 GAA in 28 games. But the Flyers have been scoring some goals lately as well, thanks to captain Claude Giroux, who tallied 86 points on the season.
Jeff Alexander
St. Louis Cardinals -141
Bottom Line: I like the Cardinals on the road here with the experience of Wainwright and their success against Washington. The Cards have won 7 straight against the Nationals and are 4-0 in their last 4 in Washington. They are an impressive 36-16 in Wainwright's last 52 starts as a favorite, including 14-5 in his last 19 starts as a road favorite. The Nationals are 1-5 in Jordan's last 6 starts as an underdog. Also, the Cards have won Wainwright's last 3 starts against the Nats.
Steve Rich
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -119
The Dodgers send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound to face Madison Bumgarner at San Francisco. Ryu was roughed up by the Giants the last time out. He then pitched very well against the Dbacks. Who isn’t right now? Ryu owns a career 3.89 ERA and is 2-3 vs the Giants. Bumgarner owns the Dodgers.with a career ERA of 2.60 and a record of 9-3. Throw in the San Fran bullpen ERA of 1.78. I really looked for reasons to take LA here with them being the dog, but kept coming back to the Giants as a small fav at home.
Jeff Fenster
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -101
The Brewers travel to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Yovani Gallardo is on the hill for the Brewers and he has been on fire. He is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA over his first 3 starts and should have little trouble dominating the Pirates lineup. The Pirates have lost 5 of 6 and are not an elite team. Edison Volquez is throwing for the Pirates and he has been one of the brighter spots for the Bucs this season. Edison is 0-0 with a 1.29 ERA over 2 starts. This game is in Pittsburgh so there is even more value in the line.
Hollywood Sports
Brewers at Pirates
Prediction: Under
While we may be a week or so away before having enough of a sample size for starting pitchers numbers this season to begin incorporating them into finding value, this pitching matchup is intriguing. Gallardo has been outstanding in his three starts by sporting a 0.96 ERA in 18 2/3 innings while producing a strong 13:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Milwaukee (11-4) has played 4 straight games Under the Total with Gallardo on the mound. Additionally, Pittsburgh (7-8) has seen the Under go 4-1-2 in their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. They counter with Volquez who has a 1.29 ERA in his two starts along with a nice 10:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio which makes his acquisition from the Padres looking fortuitous. Take the Under while listing both starting pitchers in this one.
Will Rogers
Boston vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
Last season, Chris Sale was plagued by poor luck and a lack of run support. This season, he's off to a 3-0 start, pitching very well and the offense is scoring for him. Thus, I feel Chicago is a tremendous value on the money line here, at home, against Boston Thursday night.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Sale - Might as well start here, no? He's given up just six runs in 20 1/3 and has a 19-4 strikeout to walk ratio. He has not allowed any home runs. The kind of win like he got against Cleveland last Friday is something that would not have happened last season. I expect him to look like the pitcher that threw eight scoreless innings against Kansas City in his previous start.
2. Lack of Offense for Boston - The Red Sox had just six hits in 14 innings yesterday. They are batting just .172 the last seven games. Against left-handed starters, they are averaging just 2.8 runs/game this season. Yesterday's win marked the first time in seven games they scored more than four runs and remember that it was an extra-inning affair.
3. X-Factor - It was a somewhat fortunate win for the Red Sox last night as the White Sox ran out of relievers and second baseman Leury Garcia had to come into pitch. He wound up giving up the game deciding two-run double. Sale will give the bullpen a much needed break today.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Pittsburgh/Milwaukee Under 7 (-125): One team has a poor offense and one has a mediocre offense, while both teams have excellent starters on the mound and they will be pitching in pitcher-friendly PNC Park, in weather that is not good hitting weather. That's a recipe for a pitcher's duel. Yovani Gallardo has posted an 0.96 ERA in 3 starts this year and he has a 2.61 ERA in 21 appearances (20 starts) in his career vs the Pirates, including a 1.89 ERA in 9 appearances (8 starts) in this park. His last 3 starts in this park have averaged just 4.7 rpg. Edinson Volquez comes in allowing just 1 ER in each of his two starts this year and he should have success vs a Brewers team that has averaged just 2.8 rpg in their last 6 games. The weather will be in the 40s or maybe even lower and that is not good hitting weather at all, which should give two very good pitchers the advantage in a park that already doesn't yield too many runs.
Chicago/Boston Under 7 (-110): The White Sox have played some of the higher scoring games this year, as their hitting has been great, while their pitching has been very poor, but this game should not be one of those high scoring games. The Sox are really struggling to score, as they have averaged just 3 rpg in their last 6 games and it won't get any better here vs Chris Sale, who has a 2.66 ERA on the year and a career 2.92 ERA on the field. Let's also note that current Red Sox hitters have faced him just 25 times and they have a mere .120 BA vs him in those ABs. Facing Sale is tough if you seen him before, let alone being unfamiliar with him. The Sox have been good on offense this year and Lester has struggled vs them in his career, but the White Sox have struggled vs lefties this year, hitting just .248 vs them and I expect those struggles to continue vs Lester tonight, especially in what should be a game in the 40's.
Richard Witt
Chicago White Sox -107
Sale could have sued the Sox for lack of (run) support last year. Any fair-minded judge would have found for the Sox' ace lefty, but Pale Hose are hitting a ton this season, and expect hosts to get best of it tonight. Paul Konerko is likely to get his first start of the season this evening and why not? He's 10-for-25 lifetime against Jon Lester including four homers. Take Chicago.
River City Sharps
Brewers -110
Milwaukee opens a 4 game stand in Pittsburgh trying to win their 7th in a row on the road. They send Gallardo to the hill and he has pitched superpbly, sporting a .96 ERA. Volquez takes the mound for the Pirates and he has pitched well sporting a 1.29 ERA. However, the pirates have struggled as they were 3-6 on their road trip. We like Gallardo in this spot with the Brewers going for their 7th straight on the road and the Pirates staggering home.