Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, August 1

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City Royals at Minnesota TwinsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Kansas City RoyalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Royals and Twins wrap up a three-game division series at Target Field in Minnesota Thursday afternoon where James Shields opposes Scott Diamond. Shields toes the slab 6-1 in his last seven team starts versus Minnesota, including 3-0 the last three. Shields is also 12-2 his last fourteen team starts during August, and 5-1 his last six overall away team starts. On the flip side, Diamond is 2-7 with a 6.06 ERA in his home team starts this campaign, and 3-12 his last fifteen overall home team starts. Look for more of the same today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.

Jimmy Boyd

Philadelphia Phillies -121

With both of these teams struggling at the plate, this game is going to come down to the starting pitcher's performance. Cole Hamels has a 3.60 ERA in his last three starts, while Matt Can has a 4.26 ERA. Cain has been a big disappointment this year and the Giants are 3-6 in his nine road starts.

The San Francisco Giants are 1-5 in Cain's last six starts and they are 0-5 in his last five starts against a team with a losing record. Those numbers are a big indicator of how bad Cain has pitched this season. The Phillies are 4-0 in their last four home games against a right-handed starter and they are the smart play in today's matchup.

Freddy WillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians -137FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Justin Masterson comes into this start with a 1.27 ERA over his last three along with a 0.75 WHIP. He will face off against the White Sox ace who is also posting a solid ERA of late with a 2.28, but has a 1.27 WHIP. Masterson has flat out dominated the White Sox hitters with two complete game shutouts this year allowing 2 ER over 25 IP in three starts. They have just a .606 OPS in over 280 at bats against him. Meanwhile Chris Sale has somewhat struggled against the Indians posting a 1.55 WHIP over his last three starts and a .709 OPS in his career.
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Masterson has been dominant all year at home posting a 2.63 ERA and during his day starts with a 2.06 ERA. That should benefit him because the Indians are #2 in the league in OPS during day games. The Indians are also red hot scoring 8.19 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. LHP and are scoring more than 1.5 runs per 9 vs. LHP than the White Sox are against RHP this season. White Sox are 5-16 in their last 21 vs. RH starter while Cleveland is 35-17 in their last 52 home games. I'll take the value we get with Masterson against Chris Sale who is nasty in his own right but is on his 3rd straight start on 4 days rest while throwing an average 117 pitches in his last two.
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Notable Hot Starters L3 GS:
Julio Teheran (2-1, 18.1 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 2.95 ERA)
Chris Sale (1-2, 23.2, 1.27 WHIP, 2.28 ERA)
James Shields (1-2, 19 IP, 1.53 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)
Matt Harvey (2-1, 22 IP, 0.73 WHIP, 1.23 ERA)
Joe Kelly (2-1, 17.2 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 2.55 ERA)
Felix Hernandez (2-1, 23 IP, 0.74 WHIP, 0.39 ERA)
Yu Davish (1-2, 18.1 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 2.95 ERA)
Chris Rusin (2-1, 15.1 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 2.93 ERA)
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Notable Cold Starters L3 GS:
Jordan Lyles (0-3, 15.1 IP, 1.95 WHIP, 9.98 ERA)
Bud Norris (0-3, 17 IP, 1.71 WHIP, 8.47 ERA)
Josh Johnson (0-3, 13.2 IP, 1.83 WHIP, 12.51 WHIP)
Garret Richards (0-3, 17.2 IP, 1.47 WHIP, 6.11 ERA)

Brad Diamond

Blue Jays vs. Angels
Play: Over 8½

When we started our analysis overnight we noted that the line was 8 1/2. If you research the obvious the Angels are averaging 4.4 runs per game at home, while the Blue Jays were pushing 4.1 runs across the plate on the road. Overall this series has gone OVER in 4 straight before Wednesday night action. Although Toronto hurler Johnson is catching 4+ days of rest, the OVER has been the play when he is in action at 5-1. So, with the Angels 6-1 OVER vs. RHP, I will take a ticket with the high side game.

Rob Vinciletti

Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Seattle Mariners

Seattle has staff ace Felix Hernandez on the Mound and he has much better current form than his opponent Ryan Dempster. Hernandez has a 0.39 era in his last 3 starts and has won 8 of 12 on the road. He has won 3 of his last 4 August road starts, allowing just 4 earned runs in 25 innings in that scenario of late and has won 4 of his last 6 here in Boston. Seattle has won 4 of his last 5 road starts. Dempster is 7-7 at home but has a 5.79 era in his last 3 starts. Also of note is that road favorites like Seattle have won 12 of 15 when the total is 8 or less and they are off a road dog loss and scored 4 or less runs on 10+ hits, and are taking on an opponent that won as a home favored of -140 or higher. Based on the system and the Pitching we will back Seattle.

Art Aronson

Blue Jays vs. Angels
Play: Over 8½

Josh Johnson (1-7, 6.08 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Johnson continued his dismal season by giving up seven earned runs off seven hits including three long-balls with two walks in a loss to the soft-hitting Astros on Saturday. Johnson has lost five straight starts and given up 19 earned runs over his last three outings spanning just 13 2/3's innings of work. Johnson will take his horrible 5.91 ERA road record into LA to throw opposite Garrett Richards (2-4, 4.33 ERA) who went five scoreless frames vs. the A's on Saturday, earning a no-decision in his team's eventual 3-1 setback. It was his first start since April 30th; take note though that Richards has struggled in this spot already this season, going a pedestrian 1-2 with a ballooned 4.89 ERA in all "night games" thus far. Four of these teams last five in their series have flown above the posted number and with the inconsistent Richards facing off against the confirmed "gas can" in Johnson in the opener of this four-game set, all signs do indeed once again point to a higher-scoring affair; consider a second look at the "over" in this one.

Jim Feist

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

San Francisco gets it done at home but is a terrible road team and this is a long road trip. Starter Matt Cain just hasn't had it this season with a 4.79 ERA and a .500 record. The Giants are 7-20 in their last 27 vs. a team with a losing record and 8-20 on grass. Philadelphia has home field and ace Cole Hamels going, a guy with a bad record but some sizzling all around numbers, few walks, a lot of strikeouts and fewer hits than innings pitched. He has a 5-3 record in his career against the Giants while Cain is 1-4 against Philadelphia, so grab the home field with their ace.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Mets at Miami MarlinsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Miami MarlinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's admittedly tough to pick against Mets starter Matt Harvey these days. But let's remember that Harvey and the Mets are winless in his two previous starts in Miami this season. And the Mets offense is hardly providing its starting rotation with a lot of run support these days, scoring just 13 runs over the past six games. If Marlins starter Tom Koehler pitches as well as he did in a 4-game stretch (when he posted a 2.74 ERA) prior to last Saturday's loss vs. the Pirates, Miami has a chance as it does most games lately with its excellent pitching that has posted a 2.64 ERA in its last ten games and hasn't allowed a homer in its last eight games.

Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Giants at PhilliesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Under is 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 home starts. Four of Cain's last 5 starts vs. the Phillies have gone under. The Under is 4-1 in Hamels' last 5 starts vs. San Francisco.

Will Rogers

Arizona vs. Texas
Pick: Under

After a rare high-scoring effort, Texas returned to its recent low-scoring ways yesterday. But they did win nevertheless, 2-1, finishing off a sweep of the Angels. Meanwhile, Arizona shut out Tampa Bay 7-0. With a pitching matchup of Randall Delgado vs. Yu Darvish, I see an Under on the horizon tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Delgado - He is coming off a complete game shutout of San Diego in his last start. He allowed only three hits. He also didn't allow any runs in his previous start before that, though he went only 5 2/3 innings, yet again he gave up just three hits. Over the last three seasons, the Under is 21-9 in all of Delgado's starts. This includes a 19-7 mark when the number is 8.5 to 10.

2. Darvish - He has had some really bad luck in recent starts. This includes his last start, a 1-0 loss to Cleveland. He finished with 11 strikeouts and allowed only three hits in six innings. His previous start saw him allow zero runs over 6 1/3 innings, giving up only two hits in a 3-0 win over the Yankees.

3. X-Factor - Texas has become a Under team. This was not the norm the last several seasons. But this year has seen them go 64-38 Under in all games (excluding pushes), including 34-14 when installed as a home favorite on the money line.

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle vs. BostonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: SeattleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Red Sox defeated the Mariners at Fenway last night, but it took 15 innings and they used six different pitchers. Both teams will be shorthanded in the bullpen for the series finale tonight, but that's likely to be more of a concern for the home team.
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Felix Hernandez will toe the rubber for the M's, and he can usually be depended on to go deep into ballgames. Hernandez (11-4, 2.34 ERA) went nine innings allowing just a single run in a 2-1 loss to the Twins his last time out. Prior to that he tossed six scoreless innings in a blowout win over Houston.
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He's faced the Red Sox once already this year, and he allowed just two runs on six hits in a victory at home. He came into this season with a record of 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA versus the Red Sox since 2010.
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Boston will hand the ball to veteran Ryan Dempster, who often tires in the early innings. Dempster (6-8, 4.24 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on six hits over 5 1/3 innings in a win over the Orioles his last time out. He has pitched well of late, but he hasn't gone six innings in any of his last three starts.
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The Mariners hammered him for seven runs on nine hits over just 3 1/3 innings earlier this season. There was a time in his career when Dempster could rise to the challenge in a pitcher's duel versus one of the best in the game, but I'm afraid that time may have passed.

Ray Monohan

Philadelphia -115

Matt Cain vs Cole Hamels is supposed to be a pitchers duel. Not so much this year with both pitchers struggling way more than they have at any other point in their careers. The numbers may not show it but Hamels has been much better of late. As disappointing as things have been in Philly the situation with the Giants is worse - they are in last place having dropped behind even San Diego in the NL West. Hamels may be 4-13 but the Phillies have won 4 of his last 6 starts. He ain't pitching great but he has often been the victim of bad luck too. A strong outing by the lefty will lead the Phillies to a win in the closing game of the series.

Matt Fargo

St Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: St Louis Cardinals

Winners of four straight games, the Pirates have overtaken first place in the National League Central. It has helped that all four of the wins have come against the Cardinals, the team that they have passed in the standings and while momentum is clearly on their side, I think the streak comes to an end tonight. Pittsburgh has allowed only seven runs to the best hitting team and the most run producing team in the National League which is very impressive. The Pirates look to continue that with Charlie Morton on the hill but I do not see it happening. Morton has been very solid since entering the rotation as her has a 3.59 ERA through eight starts with the Pirates going 6-2 in those games. This includes wins in each of the last three games but all of those were against teams with a losing record and going back to last season, Pittsburgh is 1-5 in his last six starts against teams with a winning record. Additionally, he has had a nightmarish time against the Cardinals, going 2-7 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 11 career starts. Helping the Pirates is the fact that St. Louis has dropped its last seven games to fall 2.5 games back in the division. The Cardinals have not dropped eight straight games since 2007 and while they are in a slide, they are 37-17 in their last 54 games following a loss. Joe Kelly gets another shot in the rotation after an impressive outing in his last starts as he held the Braves scoreless for 6.1 innings last weekend. In four starts overall, he has a 2.31 ERA and in 27.2 innings under the lights as a starter and a reliever, he has a 2.93 ERA. The Cardinals need a win to end the drought and they finally get it done.

Steve Janus

St Louis Cardinals +107

The Cardinals have surprisingly lost seven straight and are on the verge of getting swept by the Pirates in a rare 5-game series. I think it's pretty safe to say that this is a must win game for St Louis with another brutal 3-game series at Cincinnati coming up this weekend.

I definitely like the Cardinals chances in this one. They will send out a very underrated Joe Kelly, who has been a surprisingly good spot starter. Kelly made his first start since July 12 last Tuesday and threw six shutout innings at Atlanta. He's now got a 2.31 ERA over four starts and 0.77 ERA in two trips to the mound on the road.

Kelly will be opposed by Charlie Morton, who has been a little off here of late. Last time out, Morton allowed 4 runs on 9 hits in just 5 innings against the pathetic offense of the Marlins. While the Cardinals offense is averaging just 1.4 runs over their last 7 games, they showed signs of breaking out of the slump last night. While they managed just 4 runs they had 13 hits but were doomed by 11 runners left on base. Considering Morton has a career 6.17 ERA and 1.871 WHIP over 11 career starts vs St Louis, I expect the Cardinals offense to put up a big number tonight.

It's hard to believe given the Cardinals current losing streak, but they are still an impressive 30-14 following a loss this season. They are also 44-18 off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 3 seasons!